DBP prices rose slightly in September

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price in the first and second quarters of 2022 was adjusted at a high level. In June, the DBP entered the off-season, the DBP demand was low, and the DBP price in the third quarter was adjusted at a low level. As of September 30, the DBP price was 9500 yuan/ton, up 1.06% from 9400 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of “golden nine and silver ten”, the DBP market is expected to recover, and the DBP price has reached a new high. However, the plasticizer peak season in September was not strong, and the spot transaction was sluggish.

Price of raw material phthalic anhydride stabilized after soaring

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September. As of September 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 18.05% from 8725 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Due to the double impact of the soaring price of raw materials and the increasing maintenance of phthalic anhydride enterprises, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is tight, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising sharply, the price of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing in the later ten days, the cost of DBP raw materials is stabilizing, and the rising power of DBP in the future market is weakened.

The price of raw material n-butanol was lowered in “M-type”

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol fell in a “M-shaped” shock in September. The price of n-butanol on September 30 was 6666.67 yuan/ton, down 2.91% from 6866.67 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day, the downstream staged stock up, and the price of n-butanol rose. After the short-term stock up, the market demand weakened, and the price of n-butanol fell rapidly. On the whole, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in September was general, the price of n-butanol fell in shock, the cost of DBP fell, and the upward momentum of DBP weakened.

Decrease in domestic PVC output

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of primary plastic in August 2022 was 8.944 million tons, down 2.6% year on year; From January to August, the output of primary form plastics totaled 73.78 million tons, up 0.6% year on year; In August, the output of plastic products was 6.441 million tons, down 6.9% year on year. From January to August, the output of plastic products was 5054.7 tons, down 4.9% year on year. The output of PVC products in the downstream declined, the demand for plasticizers declined, the demand for DBP was insufficient, and the pressure for DBP to fall was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the business association, in terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the price of n-butanol fell in shock, the plasticizer DBP rose strongly, and the DBP price rose slightly in shock; In terms of demand, the output of PVC products declined, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DBP increased. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride became stable in late September, the price of n-butanol became weak and stable, the cost of plasticizer DBP became stable and the demand was low. The rising support of DBP weakened the downward pressure. It is expected that the future DBP price will fluctuate and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic refrigerant R22 on September 30 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than the price of 17500.00 yuan/ton on September 1, and 27.27% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic refrigerant R134a on September 30 was 26000.00 yuan/ton, 6.85% higher than the price of 24333.33 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month, and 29.41% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the price of upstream raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, with a significant increase of 45.13% in the whole month. Hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable in the whole month, with a small decline of 0.76% in the low level in the month. In general, the price of upstream raw material continued to rise, while the price of trichloromethane rose significantly in the late period. At the same time, affected by factors such as electricity production restriction in the previous period and enterprise downtime for maintenance, the overall R22 inventory of domestic enterprises was low, the cost continued to rise, and the enterprise inventory was low, The domestic R22 market price continued to run strongly in September, supported by the downstream rigid demand.

In September, the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material of R134a, was generally weak and stable, falling slightly by 0.76% in the month, and the price of trichloroethylene continued to rise, with an overall increase of more than 10% in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, the enterprise’s inventory was relatively low, and the downstream demand remained unchanged. Supported by the cost and demand, the price of refrigerant R134a continued to run relatively strong in September.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the Business Society, the price of upstream raw materials of refrigerant continued to rise in September. At present, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the overall downstream demand remains unchanged. Supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to rise in October, supported by costs.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rose in shock this month. On September 1, the price was 7600-7700 yuan/ton (the average price was 7617 yuan/ton); On September 28, the price was 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price was 7901 yuan/ton), up 3.72% this month and 1.55% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, crude oil fell broadly this month, and cost support weakened again. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton (300 yuan/ton to 7900 yuan/ton in North China).

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On September 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 872 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars/ton month on month, or 2.9%; East China imported pure benzene at US $910 per ton, down US $2 per ton month on month, or 0.22%.

Downstream, styrene: styrene rose broadly this month and then fell back. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 8967 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 9417 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.02% this month and 2.8% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: The demand has warmed up, the supply has tightened, the aniline fundamentals have strengthened, and the price has risen continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 10350 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 12300 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that at the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As the Asian American arbitrage window is closed, the diversion of Asian pure benzene to China is increasing. It is estimated that there will still be a large number of imported cargoes in October, and the inventory of ports in East China may continue to accumulate. In terms of supply, the units of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical and HSBC Petrochemical are restarted. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Guangdong Petrochemical units of CPC Central Committee will be put into production. The downstream of pure benzene follows up cautiously, and it is possible that pure benzene will weaken in the later period. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 32000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 36375 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 13.67%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose this month. At present, the market transaction is fair. The preparation of goods before the National Day has been basically completed. The market is mainly wait-and-see at present, and the actual transaction is more cautious. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and more single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36500 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphorus ore, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market price of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore fell slightly, and the price of some mining enterprises decreased slightly by about 10-20 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the main reason for the weakening of the phosphate ore market was that the terminal demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was average, which affected the mentality of the industry. The support for the phosphate ore demand side was loose, and the overall market atmosphere was weaker than that at the end of August. At present, as the National Day holiday is approaching, the logistics transportation is also stopped in succession. The information in the phosphate rock yard is generally quiet. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate mainly in a stable way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes in the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase and decrease in September 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2500 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2600 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 3.85%. To sum up, with the rising price of coking coal, the cost of coking enterprises keeps rising, and some coking enterprises begin to lose money. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved to a certain extent, and the overall market has fluctuated upward. At present, Coke Steel has a strong game mentality. In the future, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable and relatively strong, focusing on the downstream sales of finished products and the impact of coke market trends on coke prices.

In terms of demand, the market price of phosphoric acid rose in July. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month was 8860 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 10140 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month, by 14.45%. Influenced by the upstream market, the price of phosphoric acid market rose as a whole this month. Near the end of the month, the rising trend of the phosphoric acid market fell back. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will temporarily stabilize in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices have risen this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock was adjusted at a high level, and the downstream phosphoric acid market as a whole was dominated by growth. Recently, some regions in Yunnan have limited power supply, and Guizhou and Sichuan have been rumored to have limited power supply, which is good for the yellow phosphorus market. The overall confidence of the yellow phosphorus market is fair, and it is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will consolidate and operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market fell this week (9.20-9.27), mainly due to the pressure on the dichloromethane market brought by the improvement of the supply side. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 27, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3147 yuan/ton, down 4.26% from 3287 yuan/ton last Tuesday.

This week, the Jinling plant was raised to full capacity, and the supply in the region was increased compared with the previous period, which brought some pressure to the dichloromethane market.

Domestic methane chloride started to increase slightly.

This week (9.20-9.27), the spot price of methanol rose in shock, and the cost support of dichloromethane strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 27, the spot price of methanol was 2805 yuan/ton, up 3.51% from 2710 last Tuesday. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. As an energy product, coal is in continuous shortage, and methanol has strong cost support.

In the traditional golden nine silver ten season season, the downstream rarefied materials, cleaning, and pharmaceutical industries had a small amount of stock in the early stage, but near the end of the month, the downstream stock almost ended, and the support for dichloromethane became weak.

Future market forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride has slightly increased in the short term, and the cost continues to rise. In addition, the downstream stock preparation near the end of the month is basically completed in the short term. It is expected that the market for dichloromethane will narrow before the festival. However, after the festival, methanol may have the opportunity to continue to rise as the weather gets colder, and then dichloromethane may rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12400 yuan/ton on September 19, and 12200 yuan/ton on September 26. Caprolactam prices fell 1.61% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, and the cost end of caprolactam was well supported. However, the downstream demand is not good, and there is resistance to high prices. Most of them purchase at low prices. The devices of some manufacturers were restarted, and the on-site supply of caprolactam increased. As of September 26, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12700 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. The purchase enthusiasm of the downstream is good before the festival, the market negotiation increases, and the pure benzene continues to strengthen. On September 26, the crude oil fell sharply, the downstream styrene weakened, the demand for pure benzene weakened, and the market price fell slightly. The price of domestic pure benzene is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the market trading volume of caprolactam is fair in the near future, and the downstream will purchase on demand, and the caprolactam manufacturer will lower the price slightly for shipment. The supply of caprolactam will increase if the maintenance devices of some enterprises are restarted or planned to restart. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by the weak finishing operation in the short term.

From September 16, 2022 to September 23, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6100 yuan/ton last weekend and 6337.5 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.89%.

On September 22, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 218.53, up 8.19 points from yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle, and up 363.48% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Summary of coal tar price in Shanxi (unit: yuan/ton)

Region, market price, compared with the bid price last week

Linfen., 6280.,+130

Taiyuan., 6300.,+300

Lvliang., 6380.,+310

The bidding price in Shanxi continued to rise this week, hitting a record high again. The price in the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise, and the acceptance of the rising raw material price was high. The bidding price of coal tar rose again this week on the support of demand.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six consecutive months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has once again hit a record high.

Summary of Price Changes of Major Commodities in Coal Tar Deep Processing Industry in Shandong (Unit: yuan/ton)

Product name: September 16, September 23, up and down

Maleic anhydride., 8600., 8100., – 500

Industrial naphthalene., 6400., 6600.,+200

Anthracene oil., 6100., 6200.,+100

Wash oil, 6500., 6600.,+100

Coal tar pitch., 7200., 7400.,+200

In terms of the industrial chain, most of the major domestic coal chemical products rose in the current period, except for ammonium sulfate and maleic anhydride. The commodity coal tar pitch with the highest growth rate rose about 200-300 yuan/ton in the mainstream of the domestic market this week, which is different from the previous growth factors. This week’s rise was driven by the cost. Affected by the tight supply of coal tar, the tar bidding price rose sharply this week, driving the downstream commodity prices to continue to rise. And industrial naphthalene is also affected by cost factors. This week, the domestic mainstream price was 6400-6680 yuan/ton, up 200-250 yuan/ton.

The coal tar market price rose again this week. Up to now, it has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has hit a record high again. The bidding price of the main production area in Shanxi this week is 6280-6380 yuan/ton; Shandong rose slightly to 5950-6050 yuan/ton this week; Hebei region rose 100 yuan/ton to 5950-6050 yuan/ton; Henan rose 100 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the long holiday, the intention of downstream goods preparation is high, and the deep processing industry is generally active in procurement. At the same time, due to the policy of extending coking time by 40 to 45 hours in many places in Shanxi, tar supply is tight this week. Under the double positive influence of tight supply and better demand, prices in Shanxi rose sharply this week. As the market is about to enter October, it is expected that the supply will continue to shrink in the future market, and the market has a high bullish intention. At present, the tar price has hit a new historical high again, and the downstream enterprises have a certain fear of heights. However, affected by the actual demand, it is expected that the tar market will continue to operate in a stable, medium and strong trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7320 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, up 3.77% from 30 days ago.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation in the propylene (Shandong) market was 7400-7450 yuan/ton, and the enterprise’s offer was raised one after another. The market was active. With the help of Jinjiu market, the propylene sales improved and the inventory decreased. The supply remained stable, and the maintenance devices were intended to resume operation in succession. In terms of demand, the market of downstream derivatives improved, the enthusiasm for production increased, and the purchase of propylene increased.

Upstream: The raw material market fell mainly this week, but by a small margin, with limited impact on propylene prices.

Downstream: almost all downstream products rose. Driven by the peak season of the chemical industry, product profitability rebounded and productivity improved, forming a strong support for the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analyst of Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the current market supply is still loose, and most enterprise offers follow the trend of the market. There is a slight lack of momentum for future market growth. It is expected that the propylene price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price was 42400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 41800 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price fell 1.42%, down 8.42% year on year. On September 15, the bromine commodity index was 146.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.18% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 148.93% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine this week is weak. The overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is average recently. The market transaction is still light. The production of bromine enterprises is relatively stable. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, the downstream did not rush to purchase, and the price was intentionally lowered.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price rose slightly this week, with the average market price of 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1143.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose 1.48%, down 41.37% year on year. The port market continues to rise, the cargo holders have a positive attitude, and it is difficult to find low prices on the site. The downstream sulfuric acid market is stable, while the ammonium phosphate market is slightly weak. The downstream follows up on the purchase of sulfur as required. The local refineries mainly supply sulfuric acid manufacturers around. There is no inventory pressure for the time being, and the quotation is mainly stable. At present, the domestic market is not obviously good, and the short-term sulfur market is wait-and-see.

The analysts of the business society believe that the bromine price has been consolidated and operated in the near future. The bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, and the bromine supply is relatively sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine is relatively general in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and the price is deadlocked. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week, DOP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 19, the DOP price was 10312.50 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 6.87% over the DOP price of 9650 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The prices of raw materials, DOP costs and DOP prices rose significantly.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol rose by shock this week. As of September 19, the price of isooctanol was 9366.67 yuan/ton, up 5.64% from the shock of 8866.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The price of isooctanol rose, and the cost of DOP rose.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of September 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9600 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 9250 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the downstream plasticizer started to rise, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, phthalic anhydride rose greatly, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, and DOP rose more.

Future market expectation

Business agency DOP data analysts believe that more plasticizer enterprises started this week; The price of raw material isooctanol rose in shock, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, and the cost of plasticizer DOP rose. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer enterprises are basically stable, the price of raw materials rises in shock, and the driving force for the rise of DOP prices is still large. It is expected that DOP prices will become strong and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 19, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, 2.27% lower than that of last Wednesday (September 14), 11.85% higher than that of August 19, and 8.76% lower than that of last Wednesday (September 14).

Recently (9.14-9.19), the market of propylene oxide has declined. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, and the cost support has been strengthened. Since the 14th, although the supply side inventory has accumulated slightly, it is temporarily controllable. The demand side is flat and just needs to follow up. The downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, so it is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. On the 19th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was lowered to 9950-10100 yuan/ton. Some devices at the supply side recovered, and the demand side is still flat, waiting and waiting.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week (9.12-9.16). The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7320 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, 3.77% higher than 30 days ago.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 10166.67 on September 16, up 9.91% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that at present, the cost support is still there, the supply side is increasing, the demand side is waiting cautiously, and the market atmosphere is cold. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by the weak, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

From September 9, 2022 to September 16, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose overall, at 7800 yuan/ton last weekend, and 7866.67 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.85% weekly.

Main domestic market price of hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market, price on September 9, price on September 16, up and down

East China, 7800 ～ 7850, 7900 ～ 7950,+100

Shandong, 7650~7700., 7700~7750.,+50

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply over the weekend. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

The crude oil analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. The probability of short-term oil market wide shocks is high.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

August 11., 7950., – 200

August 16., 7750., – 200

August 18., 7500., – 250

August 30., 7600.,+100

September 6., 7750.,+150

On September 6, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene will be increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the current implementation is 7750 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly in late August and early September.

This week, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, supported by the double positive effects of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene rose, and downstream people generally purchased on demand. Their enthusiasm for purchasing high priced goods was limited, and the overall market transaction was average. In the near weekend, with the impact of the lower crude oil price and the overall decline of styrene, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the market as a whole stayed on the sidelines. However, the ex factory price of benzene hydrogenation enterprises rose overall this week, driven by the improvement of downstream procurement. On the supply side, the operating rate of pure benzene declined slightly this week, and the arrival of cargoes in East China ports was delayed, resulting in a slight shortage of market supply. On the whole, the tight supply currently supports the pure benzene market, while crude oil, styrene and other recent shocks are large, and the guidance to the industrial chain is not obvious. In addition, the impact of stock preparation before the festival, it is expected that the overall market of the industrial chain will be dominated by strong shocks in the future, and the future market will focus on the trend of crude oil and downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 15, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6966 yuan/ton. Compared with September 11 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 6666 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 4.5%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the Mid Autumn Festival (9.12-9.15), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a steady upward trend. After the festival, the downstream demand for n-butanol was released steadily. Supported by the demand side, the n-butanol market price was gradually rising. As of September 14, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 6800-7000 yuan/ton. Compared with before the festival, the price rose by 200 yuan/ton, or more than 3%. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is mild, the mentality of the industry is good, and the overall market is strong.

In terms of upstream propylene, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the overall domestic propylene market in Shandong Province showed an upward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7440.60 yuan/ton on September 14, up 1.90% compared with September 8 (7300 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-butanol has been released to a certain extent after the festival. The market transactions are relatively active, and the factory quotations are mostly firm. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly operate stably, and whether the market price can continue to rise requires more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of acrylonitrile rose sharply this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the spot market price of acrylonitrile in China was 9550 yuan/ton, up 6.23% from 8990 yuan/ton last Friday. This week, the supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall operation rate of 60% to 70%. However, the acrylonitrile resources in Northeast Asia were more strained than in the early stage. In addition, the downstream Jinjiuyin had a small stock of goods, and the overall offer of merchants rose. As of September 10, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile apron market in East China was between 9000 and 9750 yuan/ton.

The price of raw propylene rose slightly this week (9.2-9.10), supporting the cost. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 10, the domestic propylene price was 7320 yuan/ton, up 3.98% from 7040 yuan/ton last Friday.

The operating rate of ABS in the downstream continued to increase, driven by the export inquiry. As of the first ten days of September, the operating rate of ABS had risen to nearly 90%; The operating rate of domestic acrylic fiber is low, around 40%; The acrylonitrile butadiene rubber and acrylamide started stably, and the acrylonitrile demand surface was more supportive than that in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost of acrylonitrile is supported at present, the supply side pressure in Asia is relieved, and the demand side is slightly improved. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to rise slightly in the future.

Recently, DOTP price fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the recent DOTP price fluctuated and fell. As of September 11, the DOTP price was 9800 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from 10175 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Plasticizer enterprises started to recover slowly, and the supply of plasticizers increased. In September, DOTP prices fell in shock.

Plasticizer enterprises started to recover

With the decrease of temperature and rainfall in some areas, the situation of power shortage in Sichuan has been alleviated. General industrial and commercial power consumption in Sichuan Province has been completely restored. With the continuous support of the State Grid, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Sichuan was basically solved at the end of August and the beginning of September. After the end of power rationing, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain enterprises returned to normal, and with the advent of “golden nine and silver ten”, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises increased, and the pressure of plasticizer price decline increased.

Raw material prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol has dropped due to the recent shock. As of September 11, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan / ton, down by 2.92% from 9133.33 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, there were many overhauls of isooctanol enterprises, which led to a sharp rise in the price of isooctanol at the end of August. However, the plasticizer enterprises started to work at a low level, and the plasticizer enterprises were cautious in stocking up before the festival. The demand for isooctanol was weak, the support for the rise of isooctanol price was insufficient, and the price of isooctanol fell slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the recent PTA price fluctuated and rose. As of September 11, the PTA price was 6613.33 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the shock of 6355.83 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, PTA’s operating load was low, there were many enterprises that stopped production and overhauled, PTA’s supply was insufficient, and in addition, PX’s price rose and PTA’s cost rose, which greatly supported PTA’s price rise.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believe that the plasticizer enterprises started to recover in September, PTA prices rose in shock, isooctanol prices stabilized in shock, and DOTP prices fell in shock. In the future, with the arrival of Jinjiu, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain have both warmed up, the price of raw materials has risen in shock, and the downward pressure of the rising momentum of DOTP has been weakened. It is expected that the DOTP price will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, as of September 5, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5016 yuan / ton, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that on August 28, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 4866 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.08%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of business association that in the first week of September (8.29-9.5), the diethylene glycol market rose steadily as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the cargo volume of diethylene glycol in the storage area was low, the confidence of the industry was boosted, and the market situation was steadily rising as a whole. At the middle of the week, the feedback of the diethylene glycol market was general, the momentum of the continuous growth of the diethylene glycol market was general, and the market was running steadily. At the weekend, the overall diethylene glycol market situation was again rising steadily, the downstream demand was slightly boosted, and the market focus was steadily rising. As of September 5, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 4900-5300 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is fair, the attitude of the industry is positive, and the downstream just needs to be the main one.

At present, the diethylene glycol market as a whole is running steadily, moderately and strongly, of which the rise in South China is more obvious, and the downstream demand has given the market some support. The diethylene glycol statistician of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will be mostly stable and small, with interval adjustment.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 4900.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 4633.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.44%. This week, the factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes was 4480 yuan / ton. On September 4, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 121.93, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.76% from 144.74 points (June 21, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.08% from 96.71 points, the lowest point on September 16, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4400 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 4850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4650 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 4400-4500 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 4500-4600 yuan / ton. 62% of Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4300 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4880 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9525.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9475.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.02%. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly, from 6825.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6800.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.37%, up 20.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuation and decline. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase is just needed. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Analysts of potassium chloride of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

After hitting the bottom, the chloroform market rose slightly in August. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2825 yuan / ton, up 4.63% from 2700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. First of all, after August, the pressure on the supply side of high-level trichloromethane for the commencement of methane chloride continued; Secondly, the slight increase in the price of raw methanol supported chloroform; Finally, the after-sales demand of downstream refrigerant in high-temperature weather increases, which has more impact on chloroform.

In August, the domestic methane chloride plant started steadily, and the overall supply was loose.

In August, the raw material methanol market fell first and then rose. The spot price fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 150 yuan / ton, which has a certain support for trichloromethane. According to the business agency, as of August 31, the price of methanol was 2540 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from 2555 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The lowest point in the month was 2412 yuan / ton, and the highest point was 2568 yuan / ton. In August, the high-temperature weather was the peak of power consumption, the coal supply was relatively tight, and the methanol supply for the early methanol plant maintenance was relatively tight. Methanol was supported by the cost and supply side, and the price was adjusted in a narrow range from a high level in stages. It can be seen from the “methanol trichloromethane price trend comparison” chart that currently the cost of methanol continues to be supported by trichloromethane.

In August, high temperature weather occurred frequently throughout the country, and the overall price of refrigerant R22 rose slightly. The demand is supported by trichloromethane.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business club believe that the supply side pressure is still on, but the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the price of chloroform will fluctuate narrowly in the later period.

Magnesium metal trend in August

In August, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 22000-26000 yuan / ton, and the average price in the cycle was 23557.47 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of commodities were 11.92%. This month, the magnesium market experienced strong shocks, and the overall price moved upward. At the beginning of the month, the magnesium price showed a weak consolidation, the demand follow-up was insufficient, the superimposed cost support was weak, the market maintained a cautious attitude, and magnesium factories also took measures to reduce and limit production one after another, but the total supply was still on the high side; In mid August, the magnesium market ushered in the first round of price increase in August, with a continuous increase of about 2000 yuan / ton for four days. Export orders on the demand side were released in a concentrated manner, some domestic middlemen speculated and hoarded goods, and magnesium factories took advantage of the trend to raise prices; Near the end of the month, the magnesium market ushered in the second round of price increase, which rapidly rose to the transaction price of 26000 yuan / ton. The main factor of this round of sharp increase is the impact of the epidemic in Shenmu area, which has made the already high coal price worse. People in the industry are pessimistic about coal supply expectations.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of August 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 25666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of about 2500-3000 yuan / ton over the beginning of the month, a decrease of 11.92%, which was the same as that of the same period last year.

Market analysis

Export

According to customs statistics, China’s magnesium ingot export in July was 24936 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.4%, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Compared with June, the export volume decreased slightly, and the monthly export volume and cumulative export volume were still at a high level.

Output:

In July, China’s magnesium ingot output was 69286 tons, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, a year-on-year increase of 18.73%, an operating rate of 59.47%, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. From June to August, the magnesium plant was overhauled at high temperature in summer. Due to the weak market demand, the contradiction of overproduction in the main production area was prominent, and some magnesium enterprises had a serious shortage of funds, so they had to take the initiative to stop production for overhaul.

Raw materials

Coke fell by 18.18% in August

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced two rounds of increases in August, with an increase of 400-480 yuan / ton in the month. The increase in production costs boosted the rise in magnesium prices. Recently, an epidemic broke out in Shenmu area. At present, some coal mines and traffic have been affected to a certain extent. It is not ruled out that the coal supply will be more tight in the future, which will further lead to the shutdown of the magnesium plant.

Future forecast

In general, the expected shortage of raw materials in the short term supports the rise of magnesium prices and production costs. Factories are not willing to reduce their quotations too quickly. However, considering that demand has not recovered at present and there are few export orders, it is expected that magnesium prices will be consolidated in September. Follow up attention will be paid to the impact of the epidemic on raw material transportation and downstream transactions.

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole continued to rise, and the Henan market showed a phased rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 1, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3765 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average price was 4030 yuan / ton, with an increase of 7.04% within the month and 13.12% compared with the same period last year.

As of August 31, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region. Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4230 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4350 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4010-4030 yuan / ton

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether market price was relatively strong, the ex factory quotation in Henan market was increased in stages, and the Hebei and Shandong markets were also significantly higher. In August, there were many favorable factors in the market. First, the equipment maintenance of enterprises such as Henan Yima in the month significantly reduced the market supply. The raw material methanol market increased in the second half of the month, which brought certain support to the market in terms of cost. The civil gas market of related products was strong in August, which was favorable to the market. The market entry is more active in the downstream buying mentality. The inventory of the manufacturers is in a controllable state. The mentality is relatively strong and the price rises in stages.

In the spot market of raw material methanol, at the end of the month, the price center of domestic methanol market rose, and the rebound of crude oil and coal boosted the futures market. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises was low, and traders were in the mood of boosting. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 22 to 29, the average price of domestic methanol market increased from 2458 yuan / ton to 2539 yuan / ton. During the period, the price increased by 3.26%, and the price fell by 2.23% month on month and 2.91% year on year.

On the whole, at present, the raw material methanol is the main actor in the market, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. The civil market of related products liquefied gas is supported by the rise of international crude oil at the end of the month, and the price rises significantly. Moreover, the golden nine is coming, and the operators have a good attitude. Currently, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market has mostly risen to above 4000 yuan / ton. However, in September, the units of some manufacturers recovered, and the market supply level was improved, which brought some restrictions. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will rise steadily in September.

In August, the price of adjacent benzene stopped falling and rose

It can be seen from the price trend chart of ortho xylene in the business community that the price of ortho xylene rose in August, the price of ortho xylene in the external market rose in a volatile manner, and the price of ortho xylene in China rose. As of August 30, the price of o-benzene was 8300 yuan / ton, up by 3.75% compared with the price of o-benzene on August 1 at the beginning of the month, which was 8000 yuan / ton. In July, the price of adjacent benzene fell for three consecutive days. In August, the price of adjacent benzene stopped falling and stabilized. At the end of August, the price of adjacent benzene stopped falling and rose. In general, the price of adjacent benzene recovered and rose in August.

Tight supply of o-benzene outer disk

In August, the external price of o-xylene fluctuated and increased, and the external price of o-xylene in Europe and Asia increased slightly by about 50 yuan / ton. Since the second quarter, the import volume of o-xylene has been almost zero, and recently the export window of o-xylene has been opened, the port inventory of o-xylene has dropped sharply, the external supply of o-xylene is tight, and the external price of o-xylene has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price rise of domestic o-xylene.

Market trend of industrial chain

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community, the price of mixed xylene fell first and then rose in August. As of August 30, the price of mixed xylene was 7980 yuan / ton, down 2.21% from 8160 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and became stable, and the cost of o-xylene became stable. The downward pressure of o-xylene weakened and the upward momentum remained.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in the business community that in August, the price of phthalic anhydride surged and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of August 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up by 9.75% from 7950 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride increased, the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the driving force for the increase of o-xylene increased.

Future outlook

According to the data analysis of o-xylene of business agency, the port inventory of o-xylene was greatly removed in August, the supply of o-xylene was tight, and the driving force for the increase of o-xylene was increased; The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream rose sharply, and the downstream market of o-xylene recovered. In the future, the tight supply will continue, and the recovery of demand will stimulate the rise of o-xylene. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will rise slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 29, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.05% compared with the price on August 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.17% in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market rose in August, and the market atmosphere was weak near the end of the month. In the first ten days, the price of raw material urea fell, the cost support was general, the operating rate of melamine market fell to a low level, but the terminal operation was low, the procurement was based on demand, and the market negotiation focus was stable. In the middle and late ten days, the price of raw material urea increased slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the enterprises in some regions stopped or reduced production, the market supply was reduced, and the market price was supported. However, the downstream demand performance was flat, and the market mentality was still cautious. Near the end of the month, the operating rate of melamine was expected to increase, but the downstream demand was still weak, and the melamine market was stable and weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on August 29. On August 26, the reference price of urea was 2394.00, a decrease of 0.58% compared with August 1 (2408.00).

According to the melamine analyst of business association, the current raw material urea market is strong, with certain support from the cost side, and the market supply is expected to increase, but the demand side is flat, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be under pressure, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite this week was temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2768.75 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 2768.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 5.81%.

This week, the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable. Recently, some fluorite devices in the field have been shut down, the supply of fluorite in the field is tight, the downstream is mainly based on demand, and the transaction is normal. Recently, there are many orders. Due to the tight supply of raw ore, the spot in the field is slightly tight, and the price trend of fluorite in the field remains high. Recently, some fluorite manufacturers shut down their units for maintenance, and the mine and flotation operation in the field have declined slightly. The goods delivery in the fluorite field has improved. In addition, the fluorite export has increased, and the fluorite market price has temporarily stabilized. This week, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly stable, and the terminal downstream is mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2650-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-2800 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite price trend is stable.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite has increased slightly. As of the end of the weekend, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 10780 yuan / ton, and the price trend this week increased by 0.09%. The stable price of hydrofluoric acid has little impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. This week, the market of downstream refrigerant products is temporarily stable, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remains low, and the recent sales of the automobile industry is general. However, the production of refrigerant manufacturers is general, the refrigerant market is stable, and the demand is mainly based on demand purchase, and the refrigerant industry market changes little. As a whole, the refrigerant market remains at a low level, the price of chloroform fluctuates in a narrow range, and the cost of the refrigerant industry changes little. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable. The major refrigerant mainstream manufacturers are still operating at a low level. The market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand of R22 market application field increases, and the enterprise quotation is temporarily stable. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 17000-19000 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a price trend increased slightly, the trichloroethylene price remained low, the cost support was still in place, the R134a market price increased slightly, and the trading focus was still low. At present, the market price of R134a is in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the actual transactions of enterprises are mostly profitable, the downstream refrigerant market is slightly rising, and the fluorite price trend is temporarily stable.

In general, the downstream refrigerant industry has a slightly higher price. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market is tight, but the supply of raw ore is slightly tight recently. The merchants mainly purchase on demand. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic PA66 market has risen recently, and the spot prices of various brands have increased. As of August 22, the average ex factory price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 21500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, although the recent performance of domestic adipic acid is weak, the market tends to build a bottom and stabilize. At the beginning of last week, the market rebounded slightly, and the price stabilized at the weekend. The operating rate of adipic acid is low, and the inventory pressure of the manufacturer is slightly relieved. In the later stage, pure benzene is expected to bottom out, which may boost the confidence of the downstream to a certain extent. Cost and supply will bring rebound demand for adipic acid. However, terminal consumption is still weak, and downstream factories purchase on demand. The shipment of this foreign-made adiponitrile was carried out step by step and began to replace some imported sources.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market is still weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weak. In terms of industrial operation rate, as the profit of PA66 enterprises continues to be under pressure, the load level of domestic PA66 industry is low, and some regions have policies such as power limitation and peak shift production, the current market spot supply shrinks, and the easing of supply pressure boosts the spot market. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, terminal enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and they are still resistant to high price goods. The traditional off-season is coming to an end, and it takes time for downstream factories to expand their demand. Merchants tried to increase their shipments, and the on-site transactions were slightly light. The reduction of low-end goods supply strengthens the mentality of merchants.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 has risen recently. The market of adiponitrile at the raw material end is weak, and the cost end of PA66 is not strongly supported. The load of PA66 enterprises is on the low side, the situation of excess supply on the site is beginning to improve, and the demand side is generally taking goods. It is expected that PA66 will continue to rise in the short term due to the reduction of supply and the approaching peak season.

This week, DBP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DBP price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 22, DBP price was 8783.33 yuan / ton, up 2.13% from 8600 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. The plasticizer industry chain started to decline, and the DBP price increased.

The operating rate of high-temperature power limited enterprises decreased

Affected by high temperature and drought, factories in Sichuan and Chongqing have been shut down continuously. On August 21, Sichuan launched the first level emergency response for emergency energy supply guarantee. Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Chongqing and Shanghai all have different power limitation measures. Due to the impact of the restricted film, the operating rate of enterprises and end users in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises was as low as 40%.

This week, the price of n-butanol surged

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of n-butanol rose by a shock this week. On August 22, the price of n-butanol was 6800 yuan / ton, up 3.03% from 6600 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. N-butanol surged, and the market as a whole was in a weak consolidation operation. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the field was relatively light, the downstream stock preparation rhythm was calm, and most of them were just needed to purchase. The operating rate of n-butanol enterprises with high temperature and limited power decreased, and the price of n-butanol surged. The pressure of n-butanol decline in the future still exists.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 22, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8100 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the raw material cost of DBP was strongly adjusted. The driving force for DBP’s rise in the future remains.

This week, PVC prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 22, the PVC price was 6325 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 6516.67 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. Affected by the high temperature, some regions have limited power and production, the operating rate of PVC enterprises has decreased, the price of PVC has fluctuated and dropped, the demand for DBP has decreased, and the pressure on DBP in the future has increased.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, due to the impact of high temperature limit, enterprises in the DBP industry chain have increased production and maintenance, and the supply of DBP has decreased; Power rationing affects the start-up of upstream raw material enterprises, the price of raw materials n-butanol and isooctanol fluctuates and rises, and the DBP cost rises; The operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased, the demand for PVC was weak, and the DBP price fluctuated and rose. In the future, power rationing will spread to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The industrial chain starts to decline in an all-round way, plasticizer demand is weak, raw material prices are falling, DBP costs are falling, PVC starts to decline, DBP demand is weak, DBP demand is weak, and costs are falling. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and fall.

According to the data monitored by the business association, the PP market has fallen recently, and the spot price of the wire drawing brand has decreased. As of August 23, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7983.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 3.13% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the propylene market has fallen recently. The downstream demand is not as expected, the pressure of propylene enterprises to take goods is not reduced, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is difficult to change, and the end-users just need to purchase, and most of them are small. On the supply side, the maintenance equipment of many parties has been resumed one after another, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. Under the situation of increased supply in the future, it is expected that the propylene price may further fall.

The price of propylene fell, and the international oil price fluctuated and fell, so the support of PP cost side was poor. In terms of industrial load, recently, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has increased steadily, but the proportion of wire drawing material production allocation is at a low level of 25% in the month, and the inventory has decreased in a narrow range. Generally speaking, although there is long-term supply pressure, the spot is relatively tight. On the downstream side, although the wire drawing material terminal factory is affected by certain high temperature and limited film, from the perspective of market performance, the purchase follows a narrow recovery. Traders have a general attitude, and the offer is subject to the market. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will be stronger in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 23, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream price of Z30S (fiber) offered by domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 2.83% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 5.70% compared with the same period of last year. In the early stage, the load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was maintained as a whole, and the demand and operation of end-users continued the off-season mode of large-scale enterprises maintaining production and small and medium-sized enterprises reducing the load. The digestion speed of non-woven fabrics of downstream products is general, and the enterprises reduce the price for shipment, and the replenishment operation of fiber and PP is biased towards bulk orders. It is expected that the fiber market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the recent meltblown PP market has declined. As of August 23, the average price of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9166.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 2.65% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, and down by – 3.34% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the recent explosive development in neighboring Japan. There is a rebound in some areas of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not high. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, and the domestic and foreign demand has not been significantly helped, which does not support the spot price. There is sufficient inventory of meltblown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the polypropylene market has stabilized after the recent decline, the raw material propylene market has fallen, and the cost side of PP is not well supported. In recent days, the demand of terminal enterprises has recovered in stages, and the offers of merchants follow the market. It is expected that the recent PP market will be dominated by strong consolidation and operation.

According to the data of business agency, as of August 21, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6520.00 yuan / ton (tax included), which was stable compared with the price of 6520.00 yuan / ton on August 15.

On August 21, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 2.69% from the highest point 135.70 in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 186.57% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is limited. According to the business news agency, as of August 21, the price of 180CST self-contained low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan District of China National combustion Corporation was 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self-contained low sulfur fuel oil was 6650 yuan / ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton, and the price of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6550 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which once again triggered the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which made the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

The decrease of fuel oil inventory in Singapore supports the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development bureau (ESG): as of the week of August 17, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory dropped 968000 barrels to a four week low of 16.699 million barrels; The inventory of medium distillate increased by 400000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 7.802 million barrels.

Future forecast: at present, the ship fuel cost is strong, which has a boosting effect on the ship fuel market. The domestic ship fuel market is mainly on the sidelines, and the transaction is cautious. The terminal demand is not significantly favorable, and the purchase is just needed. This week, the overall price of ship fuel market remained stable. At present, the market price of 180CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 120cst low sulfur fuel oil is about 6600 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be sorted out in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 19, 2022, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 15 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8200 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 2.44%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (August 15-august 19), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed an upward trend. At the beginning of this week (August 15), the mainstream price of n-propanol in the domestic Shandong region remained stable at around 7500-7650 yuan / ton. Starting from Tuesday, Shandong large manufacturers steadily increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by around 100-200 yuan / ton. Driven by large manufacturers, the market center of n-propanol gradually moved upward. As of August 19, the mainstream market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is 7800-8000 yuan / ton, the high end price is around 8500 yuan / ton, and the barrel price is around 9500 yuan / ton. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the price change of raw materials and shipment situation in the future.

Forecast of n-propanol future market trend

At present, in the domestic market, the downstream demand of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the supply and demand transmission is smooth. The analysts of the business association n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly stabilize and consolidate the bank, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 12, the average price in the domestic market was 22766.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 22400-22500 yuan / ton. This week, the magnesium ingot price fell first and then stabilized. The downward trend narrowed, and the early price fell below the cost line, resulting in an increase in the willingness of magnesium plants to stabilize the market.

Supply and demand

The supply side of magnesium ingots is still at a high level. Although the production reduction of magnesium plants increases under the pressure of high-temperature factory operation in summer and poor sales of blue carbon, the overall market mentality is empty due to the continued weakness of the demand side. The oversupply of magnesium is still an important contradiction in the current market.

Upstream and downstream

In the coke market, this week’s first round of increase landed. On Tuesday, the first round of increase of coke, which had been preheated for five days, landed completely. The range of this round of increase was 200-240 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of ferrosilicon has rebounded, and the futures market has rebounded after a continuous decline. However, most enterprises are still on the edge of profit and loss, and the spot price of ferrosilicon may continue to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

The downstream magnesium powder and magnesium alloy are slightly adjusted, and the enterprises mostly produce according to the single order, so the demand for magnesium ingots is general.

Future forecast

The weakness of downstream demand led to the downward pressure on the price of magnesium ingots. With the continuous decline of the price, the magnesium plant took into account the small profit or even loss, and the increase of factory maintenance, so the decline of the magnesium ingot Market was postponed. However, in the absence of obvious favorable support in the market, it is expected that the magnesium price will bear certain pressure.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 8 to August 15, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 9980 yuan / ton to 9840 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.40% in the week. The price fell by 9.10% month on month and 3.91% year-on-year.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to weaken in a narrow range, and the cost side lacked support. Due to the deviation of terminal demand, the downstream caprolactam market is weak and falling, the profit space is limited, and the demand for external mining is weak. However, the spot supply of cyclohexanone is small and the decline is relatively small.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 15:

Region, price

In East China, 10100-10200 yuan / T cash will be delivered

In South China, 10200-10300 yuan / T cash will be delivered

Shandong Province, 9800-9900 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene was lowered by 500 yuan / ton for two times to 7950 yuan / ton.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam continues to fall. The spot supply of caprolactam market is sufficient, especially in the north, where the number of construction projects remains high. Enterprises actively ship and reduce inventory, while the demand side is flat.

The raw material pure benzene market still has downward expectations, while the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market will still be weak and downward.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the dichloromethane market declined slightly this week (August 8-august 15). As of August 15, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2912 yuan / ton, down 3.32% from 3012 yuan / ton last Monday.

This week (8.8-8.15), the domestic methane chloride construction started at 70-80%, and there is still pressure on the supply side, which restricts the dichloromethane market.

This week (8.8-8.15), the spot price of methanol fell, and the cost continued to weaken. According to the business agency, as of August 15, the spot price of methanol was 2482 yuan / ton, down 2.52% from 2546 last Monday.

The downstream refrigerant R32 industry of dichloromethane has started steadily, but recently it is the traditional off-season for the terminal air conditioning plant, and the actual demand is reduced; In addition, the export performance of foreign trade is stable, and the support for dichloromethane is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business association believe that the supply of methane chloride in China is still loose, and the cost is low. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to weaken in the later period.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic ABS market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 15, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12050 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.63% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell last week. The main reason is that due to the low crude oil price, the center of gravity of the pure benzene market moves downward, it is difficult to support the styrene market, the supply and demand fundamentals are weak, some maintenance units are restarted, the port inventory is rising, and the spot price of styrene is fluctuating and falling.

Recently, the acrylonitrile market has been shaken and consolidated. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be in a loose state, the downstream commencement continues to fall, and the market transaction is deadlocked. However, with the acrylonitrile price falling to the low level near 9000 yuan / ton, the downstream replenishment has increased. At present, the price of acrylonitrile has dropped to a stage low, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period.

Last week, the decline of the domestic butadiene market slowed down. Although Sinopec and other major production enterprises lowered their factory prices several times this week, the market prices in some areas rebounded narrowly due to the auction results of Luqing, and the market speculation atmosphere was strong. At the same time, the current butadiene market has dropped to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment sentiment is obvious. Therefore, the decline of the butadiene market has slowed down.

Last week, the trend of three materials in the upstream of ABS cost side was weak, and the support of ABS cost side was poor. At the macro level, the chemical industry chain continues to fluctuate under the influence of macro inflation factors. In terms of industrial load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is about 70%, but some production lines are expected to increase the load, and the supply side has limited support for the market. While the industry’s off-season market remains unchanged, the demand of the main downstream home appliances and other industries lags behind, and the on-site consumption is weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. Terminal enterprises buy at low prices and have obvious resistance to high-priced goods.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, which weakened the support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market in the market dominates the market, and it is expected that the spot market of ABS will continue to fall in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fluctuated and consolidated this week (8.5-8.12).

As of August 12, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 9100 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.44% over the 9060 yuan / ton last Friday, and the low point in the week was 8920 yuan / ton. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be loose, the downstream commencement continues to fall, and the market transaction is deadlocked. However, with the acrylonitrile price falling to the low level near 9000 yuan / ton, the downstream replenishment has increased, and the offers of merchants have been slightly adjusted. As of August 12, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile bulk water market in East China was between 8300 and 9200 yuan / ton; Fushun Petrochemical acrylonitrile was listed at 9300 yuan / ton in August; The listed price of acrylonitrile of Jilin Petrochemical in August was 8800 yuan / ton; The spot price of Shandong keluer acrylonitrile in August was 8500 yuan / ton; Shandong Anqing Petrochemical’s acrylonitrile spot price in August was 8500 yuan / ton.

This week (8.5-8.12), the price of raw material propylene increased slightly, and the cost increased slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 12, the domestic propylene price was 7270 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from 7180 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream ABS operating rate dropped to around 70%, the acrylic fiber industry operating at around 60%, the acrylamide industry operating at around 50%, and the three downstream industries of acrylonitrile operating at a low level. The overall weak demand side has insufficient support for acrylonitrile; From the perspective of acrylonitrile supply, the current load of the 780000 T / a acrylonitrile unit of Jiangsu Sibang Petrochemical is around 60-70%; The current load of the 452000 T / a acrylonitrile unit of Jilin Petrochemical Company is around 50%; The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile unit of Shandong keluer Chemical Co., Ltd. is currently in normal operation.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analysts of business club believe that the current pressure on supply and cost restricts the action of acrylonitrile. However, the acrylonitrile price has dropped to a stage low, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 11, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 7566 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 7, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 7533 yuan / ton), the price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.44%. Compared with the price on August 1, 2022 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate: 7033 yuan / ton), the price increased by 533 yuan / ton, or 7.58%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in the first week of August, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate rose. After entering this week, on August 8 at the beginning of this week, the center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate continued to move up slightly, and some factories slightly increased the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by about 100 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market was weakened, and the momentum of the market continued to rise. The overall operation of dimethyl carbonate was stable. As of August 11, the factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 7100-7600 yuan / ton, and the high-end price was around 8000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is fair, and there is only a small room for negotiation in the market.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at the beginning of August (8.1-8.10), the overall market situation of propylene oxide in Shandong was declining. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 10, the reference price of propylene oxide was 8933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with that on August 1 (8966.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the on-site inventory of dimethyl carbonate has been improved as a whole, and the support provided by the supply side has become weak. The analysts of dimethyl carbonate of business club believe that in the short term, the market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou fell this week. Last Friday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 28000 yuan / ton, and this Friday, the average price was 26250 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased by 6.25%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the trading of the yellow phosphorus market is still not improving. The market situation is light, the market sales is general, and the downstream enterprises purchase at low prices, which depresses the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market. Most of the yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 26500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 26000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market has been running steadily this week. The reference price of phosphate rock is 1100.00, which is the same as that on August 1. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal. The operators are reluctant to sell. Large factories and mining enterprises are mainly for their own use, and the basic external sales are very small. The on-site circulation spot is insufficient, and the market continues to operate strongly. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of the business association, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly high-level consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, from July 29 to August 5, 2022, the market price of quasi primary coke in Shanxi was temporarily stable, and the average price of quasi primary coke in Shanxi was 2200 yuan / ton. After the fifth round of coke market increase and decrease, the accumulated increase and decrease was 1100 yuan / ton. This week, the coke market price remained temporarily stable, and the overall atmosphere of the coke market improved. On Friday, some coke enterprises in Hebei started the first round of increase of 200-240 yuan / ton for coke, which was rejected by the downstream steel plant. The first round of increase has not yet landed. In the future, the business community believes that although the downstream is warming up, the overall range is limited, and the boost to the industrial chain is limited. It is expected that the coke market will remain temporarily stable in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the operation of the steel plant, the sales of finished products and the profit of coke steel enterprises.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid fell slightly this week. Last Friday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 8650 yuan / ton, and this Friday, the average price was 8190 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased by 5.32%. At present, the downstream demand is poor, the phosphoric acid price is weak and falling, and the downstream goods are more cautious. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market is weak in the short term, and there is no lack of possibility of continued decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the business community chemical branch, the yellow phosphorus will continue to decline this week as a whole. The price of phosphate rock in the upstream continues to be high, the price of phosphate rock in the downstream market is weak and falling, and the phosphate Market is poor. The downstream continued low-level consolidation, the purchase price was depressed, and yellow phosphorus enterprises intended to raise the price. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be frozen in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 8, the average price of domestic top-grade DMF enterprises was 10600.00 yuan / ton. The price of DMF was mainly stable. Compared with the price at the beginning of the week, there was no significant change. In the short term, the market price of DMF was mainly stable.

As of August 8, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is fair, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth.

Upstream methanol: as of the end of July, the domestic methanol market had a slight upward trend, but the momentum was insufficient and the upward trend was weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: first, the cost has dropped significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has become soft; On the other hand, demand continued to be weak and market confidence was insufficient.

Chemical commodity index: on August 7, the bulk commodity price index (BPI) was 1040 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point 1343 points in the cycle (October 19, 2021), and up 57.58% from the lowest point 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate smoothly, and the price range is 12700 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Last week (August 1-7), viscose staple fiber operated smoothly and the price was stable. The downstream demand is low, and the manufacturers actively support the price, showing a situation where there is a price but no market., Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the speed reduction production method to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and the rising inventory, and at the same time delay their own pulp inventory consumption. The cotton yarn price of downstream people fell, the popularity was low, and the transaction was light.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of viscose staple fiber was stable last week. As of August 7, 2022, the ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15400 yuan / ton, which was the same as the upper price. The price of human cotton yarn fell, and the average ex factory price (30s, ring spinning, first-class goods) was 18766 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 100 yuan / ton.

From the analysis of the reasons, the cost support is not reduced, the market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high, and the production cost of viscose staple fiber is generally maintained at a high level. However, the downstream demand for cotton yarn is weak, showing a situation of price without market. The factory inventory increases, the factory is cautious, and the desire to stabilize the price is strong.

Future forecast

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the textile terminal demand continues to be flat, the trading volume is always general, and the downstream order receiving volume is always general. The whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber shows a situation of price but no market, and the factory inventory increases. Analysts of business society predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will face downward pressure.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 5, the mainstream offer price of China viscosity 2.75-2.85 by the sample enterprises was about 14833.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.11% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the price of caprolactam fell this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, international crude oil continued to be affected by macro inflation, and external news support was weak. The market demand is sluggish and the downstream follow-up is weak. There is a large supply of caprolactam in the market, which reduces the price for enterprises digesting inventory and shifts the transaction focus downward. At present, the caprolactam market is not good, and the trend is constantly downward. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend continued to decline, and the cost side support of PA6 was still weak this week. At the beginning of August, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants increased narrowly, and the overall rate was about 60%. From the macro perspective, the petrochemical industry chain is affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, and the support function of PA6 at the near and far cost ends is weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, while the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. The load of downstream enterprises is not high, and there is inventory backlog. The enterprise is not active in preparing goods, and is still cautious in taking goods. Small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that at the beginning of August, the spot price of PA6 fell, the price of caprolactam continued to fall, and the cost side of PA6 was weak. The downstream enterprises just need to maintain production, and the on-site operation tends to bargain hunting. It is expected that the market trend of PA6 will remain weak in the off-season in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in July, and the spot prices of various brands gradually decreased. As of July 28, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5350 yuan / ton, up or down -3.89% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This month, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to be weak. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises remained low, and the overall operating rate decreased to 40%. Affected by this, although the on-site supply of potassium sulfate is limited, the on-site supply pressure increases instead of decreases due to the impact of export policies. In July, the price of potassium chloride of domestic enterprises fell steadily, while the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate was general. The arrival of border trade surged at the beginning of the month. With the continuous transit of goods, the price of imported goods weakened, which affected the loose spot offer and weakened the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market offer of potassium sulfate has fallen, domestic demand is weak, especially in the northeast, the goods are weak, and there are few new orders. Traders respond that the downstream follow-up is slow, and the trading is limited.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in July, and the potassium chloride market remained stable after the decline. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened, the follow-up of the demand side is poor, the export of supply side is blocked, and the pressure of domestic supply sources increases. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in enterprise sales policies in August.

According to the monitoring of business agency, adipic acid in China continued to decline in July, with a monthly decline of 16.32%. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 9600-9800 yuan / ton. On the one hand, from the negative cost, the upstream pure benzene market was weak, and cyclohexanone continued to decline. In addition, the adipic acid market has been declining due to abundant supply performance, weak market demand, poor delivery of goods by manufacturers, obvious inventory pressure and other reasons.

In terms of market supply, adipic acid operating rate fell slightly this month compared with the previous month, and remained below 60% for the whole month. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventory accumulated seriously in the early stage, and the prices of large manufacturers reduced the listing price and collection price significantly. In order to clear the inventory and ensure profits, enterprises can only operate at a reduced rate. In terms of commencement, Shandong Haili and Hongding units were overhauled within the month, and Chongqing Huafeng phase 5 was shut down; In addition, Shenma, Zhonghao and Yangmei all operate in a reduced range, and Liaohua first line operates. Although the operating rate fell in July, the market and enterprise inventory are still in the process of de stocking.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The figure above shows that the adipic acid industrial chain fell across the board this month, and the decline in the middle and lower reaches was significantly stronger. Adipic acid (-16.32%), PA66 (-11.7%). It indicates that the terminal demand is very weak. The decline of upstream pure benzene, cyclohexanone and other products was significantly slower than that of the previous month. It shows that the profit pressure of adipic acid manufacturers is becoming more and more prominent.

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

Crude oil surged in July, bringing some support to pure benzene. However, due to the lower downstream operating rate, the demand for pure benzene continues to weaken, and the price is difficult to perform well. According to the monitoring of business agency, pure benzene fell by 4.91% in July. The upstream still has a negative effect on adipic acid.

In July, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11016 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of July 28), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10180 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.59% in the month and 2.49% year-on-year. The price of pure benzene fell, while the downstream demand was weak, coupled with the impact of abundant supply, the cyclohexanone market fell all the way, which was difficult to boost.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is light. Downstream procurement continued to slow down. In July, the domestic PA66 market fell at a low level, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of July 29, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 21000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -11.7% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in July, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods and follow up, preferring just to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price supply. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor fell, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he gradually tried to reduce the yield order.

In the later stage, the business community believes that crude oil may rise with the tightening of supply and energy tension in the later stage, pure benzene is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and the negative cost side may be alleviated. With the impact of the profit compression of adipic acid manufacturers, the manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the price may gradually stabilize in the later stage. However, considering that Tianli, Zhonghao and other devices may recover one after another, the supply may increase in the later stage, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve in the short term, it is more likely that adipic acid will stop falling in the short term, but it is unlikely to rebound sharply.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued its decline in June, with both supply and demand weak, but the decline slowed slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, acetic acid fell by 14.85% in July (nearly 25% in June). The market decline was mainly affected by sluggish demand. Although the manufacturer has been de stocking in July, and the reduction of load has reduced the operating rate, the weak downstream procurement has continued to decline the price of acetic acid. This month, the 1.2 million ton unit in Celanese was overhauled, and the 700000 ton unit in Shanghai Huayi was gradually restarted. At present, acetic acid manufacturers have approached the cost line, the pace of price adjustment has slowed down, the hollow state of the market has eased slightly, the shipment volume in some parts of China has improved slightly in the late days, and the market transaction has improved. At the end of the month, the price of acetic acid was about 3300-3400 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

In July, domestic ethyl acetate continued to fluctuate and decline, with a decline of 4.76% this month according to the statistics of business agency, mainly due to the negative cost caused by the falling price of raw acetic acid. More importantly, the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, and the procurement gradually slowed down, resulting in the ethyl acetate Market inventory still at a relatively high level. It is worth noting that the decline of ethyl acetate slowed down significantly this month, mainly because the operating rate of ethyl acetate manufacturers decreased significantly, and the average operating rate in July was generally less than 40%. The manufacturer’s attitude of supporting prices is becoming stronger. In addition, the bidding situation of Shandong big factory is better, and some of them are traded at a premium. At the end of the month, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

In July, the decline of domestic butyl acetate was strong. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of butyl acetate was 15.41%. Under the background of the decline of acetic acid (-14.85%) and n-butanol (-2.08%), the negative cost of butyl acetate intensified. After the middle of July, the price of n-butanol rebounded, and butyl followed its upward trend. However, due to the downstream demand, the market gradually fell near the end of the month. After the butyl acetate manufacturer lost cost support, the price fell sharply, and the market trading was light. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 8500-8800 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that the overall acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak in July, and acetic acid and downstream products fell across the board. It has a great impact on the whole industrial chain. The downstream butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products have decreased significantly, and the decline of ethyl acetate has slowed down. On the whole, the profits of acetic acid and downstream butyl acetate and ethyl acetate enterprises have gradually been significantly compressed.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the later stage, the acetic acid industry chain is still weak. There are rumors of restart in Celanese in the short term, the market supply is still under pressure, and the price of acetic acid is still suppressed. The downstream ethyl acetate and butyl acetate units have little change in the short term. The market is still in the process of destocking, but due to weak demand, the downstream operating rate continues to be depressed, so it is difficult for ethyl ester and butyl ester to get out of the rebound market.

In July, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose, and the overall market atmosphere improved slightly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the methanol market in eastern China was 2520 yuan / ton at the beginning of July, and the price was 2597 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price rose by 3.06% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 12.18%, up 0.46% year-on-year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in July 2022, there were two kinds of commodities with month on month rise in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices, with methanol (phase) (3.06%) and liquefied natural gas (2.46%) rising in the top two. A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 7 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 53.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were MTBE (-14.87%), petroleum coke (-9.19%) and WTI crude oil (-8.83%). The average rise and fall this month was -4.96%.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of July 29:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2430 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange

Fujian. The mainstream negotiation is 2520-2550 yuan / ton

In the two lakes region, the mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference, about 2410-2450 yuan / ton

Anhui region, transaction range refers to 2540-2560 yuan / ton, factory withdrawal and acceptance

Henan Province, ex factory reference 2550 yuan / ton, factory withdrawal cash exchange

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was depressed and sorted out, and transactions in the mainland were heavy again, while the coastal market performed generally. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic methanol market continued to fall. At present, the macro situation is negative. At the same time, the breaking position of the futures market fell, and the market sentiment weakened, but the overall follow-up is not fast, and the decline is limited.

In the middle of August, the domestic methanol market was depressed and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing.

In late August, the domestic methanol market showed a slight upward trend, but the momentum was insufficient and the upward trend was weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.

In July, the price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, with an upward and downward trend from raw materials to the downstream. The international crude oil market was strong, Brent was -10.63% month on month in July, with a year-on-year increase of +42.00%. Among downstream products, prices rose and fell in July. Among them, the price of glacial acetic acid fell the most, with a month on month decrease of -17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of -40.92%; The price of formaldehyde in Shandong increased the most, with a month on month increase of +5.28%.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 28, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $357.50-358.50 / ton, up $3.5 / ton. The closing price of Gulf methanol market in the United States is 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 384.50-385.00 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 357.50-358.50 USD / ton, 3.5 USD / ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 384.50-385.00 euros / ton, 0 euros / ton

Crude oil is expected to rise in August, but coal prices may decline. At the same time, methanol supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is expected to rise in a narrow range. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will mainly recover in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on July 1 was 4666 yuan / ton, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium on July 29 was 4650 yuan / ton. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell 0.36% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4366 yuan / ton on July 1, and 4425 yuan / ton on July 29. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.34% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate is downward this month. Monoammonium has a poor market, with a weak trend. Raw phosphate rock is still tight and the price is high, the price of raw sulfur continues to fall, the cost support is insufficient, and the confidence in the ammonium monohydrate plant is frustrated. The downstream compound fertilizer operates at low load, the price is down, and the purchase of ammonium phosphate is reduced. Due to the rapid decline of raw materials and the shortage of Monoammonium supply, most manufacturers suspended their quotation, and the quotation of dealers was mixed. As of July 29, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

The market of diammonium phosphate fluctuated at a high level this month. The price of raw sulfur continues to decline, and the cost support is weakened. Domestic demand for diammonium basically stagnated, and most manufacturers stopped quoting. At present, the market is dominated by exports, the demand is weak, the quotation of traders is chaotic, and the market is weak in the short term. As of July 29, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4150 yuan / ton, that of 57% diammonium was about 3750 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Hubei was about 4400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, at the beginning of July, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore basically exceeded the 1000 yuan level, the on-site supply continued to be tight, and the operators were reluctant to sell. Large mining enterprises were mainly for their own use, with little external sales. The on-site circulation spot was insufficient, and the market continued to operate strongly. On July 11, some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi raised the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore again, The increase range was around 30-50 yuan / ton, and the high-end market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou exceeded 1150 yuan / ton. Then, the phosphorus ore market as a whole was strong and operated to the late July stage. Up to now, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1050-1150 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 900-980 yuan / ton.

The price of raw sulfur fell sharply this month. The downstream market starts at a low level, and the demand for sulfur is limited. In addition, there is a low-cost source of goods in the market, there is great competition pressure for on-site shipment, and the inventory pressure of sulfur refineries increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, domestic refineries continue to reduce their quotations. In the mood of buying up but not buying down, the operators are cautious in entering the market, and the overall atmosphere of the market is weak.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analysts of the business society, the current trend of sulfur, the raw material of ammonium phosphate, is weak, and the cost support is weak. The downstream demand for phosphate fertilizer is sluggish, and there are few transactions on the floor, with the focus of transactions declining. The price trend of ammonium phosphate is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices were weak in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 58400 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 58000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.68% and a year-on-year increase of 30.34%. On July 27, the bromine commodity index was 203.51, down 0.7 points from yesterday, down 17.00% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 245.40% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices are weak this month. Shandong enterprises currently report about 57500-58000 yuan / ton. The output of bromine enterprises is general, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are in a downturn, with general support for bromine and a heavy game atmosphere. The overall procurement pace is weak.

In terms of raw materials, sulfur prices fell in July as a whole. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 3603.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 940 yuan / ton. The price fell 73.91%, down 42.92% from the same period last year. The downstream demand for sulfur is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. There is a low-cost source of goods in the market. The downstream purchase is cautious, the shipment situation of enterprises is poor, and the inventory pressure increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some price enterprises quote lower on weekends, the price difference in the floor is obvious, and the market mentality is bearish. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices are weak this month, and the output increase is less than expected. The output of seawater bromine is low, and bromine enterprises mostly support the price. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported, and they are resistant to the high price of bromine. Most operators are looking to stabilize the aftermarket, and comprehensively predict that the short-term bromine price will stabilize the mid market and integrate the operation market, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 25, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1834 yuan / ton, a decrease of 18.15%. Compared with June 25 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10766 yuan / ton), the average price was basically the same as 2500 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since July, the domestic butanone market has operated downward as a whole. At the beginning of July, the domestic butanone market had a short-term strong operation, but it was trapped by the downstream demand side. The butanone market has been declining since the middle and early July, the supply and demand transmission has been blocked, the butanone market lacks strong support, and the market price continues to move closer to the low end. As of July 25, the low-end price of the domestic butanone market was around 8200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of more than 18% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the butanone floor is still trading, and the downstream wait-and-see mood still exists.

On the upstream side, since July (7.1-7.24), the liquefied gas market in Shandong Province has been running down as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5744 yuan / ton on July 22, a decrease of 2.48% compared with July 1 (5890 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone field is weak in consolidation and operation, and the support of the raw material end is general. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week was temporarily stable, with the price of 5283.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 24, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 139.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week was slightly stable temporarily: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride over the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5000-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 10125.00 yuan / / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.25%, an increase of 28.83% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.34%, an increase of 28.08% year-on-year over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. International potash prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

This week (7.18-7.25), the butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, but the fundamentals are still weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 25, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 13830 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from 13940 yuan / ton last Monday, and the low point in the week was 13790 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is sluggish, early maintenance devices are gradually restarted, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supply is expected to increase, and the market is weak and consolidated; On the one hand, the international crude oil price rebounded over the weekend, on the other hand, the narrow range fluctuation cost of butadiene was supported. The sales companies in Northeast, North and South China of CNPC raised the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber by 200 yuan / ton, driving the market rebound atmosphere.

Recently, the supply side has increased slightly, forming a certain pressure on the Shunding market.

Since July, butadiene market has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of butadiene rubber has been temporarily stable in the short term. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 25, the price of butadiene was 10260 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from 10292 yuan / ton last Monday.

The natural rubber market rebounded slightly, but the overall level is still low, with little support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 25, the price of natural rubber was 12170 yuan / ton, up 0.89% from 12063 yuan / ton last Monday.

The operation of downstream tires is low, with half steel tires around 65% and all steel tires around 55%. The demand is weak in the face of rubber support, and the market transaction is slightly deadlocked.

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that the fluctuation of international crude oil range, the low price of natural rubber, the increase of supply pressure and the deadlock of market transactions make it difficult to sustain the rebound in the butadiene rubber market. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will continue to decline weakly in the later period.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 3066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 3033.33 yuan / ton, down 1.09% during the week.

This week, the overall performance of the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market was average, and some enterprises slightly reduced the factory price, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market as a whole to continue to be weak and downward. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2800-3200 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated around 3000 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only, and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

As of July 22, the price of domestic soda ash fell by 1.71% in July, the price of domestic sulfur fell sharply by 54.49% in the month, the cost of raw materials fell sharply, and the downstream trade subjects had a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the overall market price of domestic pyrosulfite will continue to be under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of raw materials continues to decline, and under the pressure of costs, it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be under pressure and weak adjustment in the short term.

In terms of spot goods, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2404 yuan / ton on July 21, down 1.07% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, some major production enterprises have device maintenance, and some regions have limited production possibilities. From the demand side, the downstream just needs to purchase.

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2360-2390 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian, The mainstream negotiation is 2430-2470 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, The negotiation of mainstream enterprises refers to about 2400-2430 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The negotiation of mainstream enterprises is about 2370-2500 yuan / ton

Henan Province, The shipping price of some enterprises is 2530 yuan / ton

In terms of futures, methanol fell in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Ma2209 contract opened at 2442 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2470 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2406 yuan / ton. It closed at 2411 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 24 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract Holdings were 1.1044 million hands, a decrease of 12100 hands from the previous trading day.

In terms of external market, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 360.00-361.00 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollar / ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, up 11.5 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 360.00-361.00 USD / ton, 1 USD / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, 11.5 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, 3 euros / ton

The high-level fluctuation in the crude oil market and the pull of device maintenance are difficult to match the demand side, and the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by consolidation.

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak, some devices were restarted, the overall supply increased, and the supply side support weakened. At the same time, terminal demand continued to languish, dragging down the downstream market in many industries.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from July 8 to 15, the domestic BDO market price fell from 18280 yuan / ton to 16680 yuan / ton. The price fell by 8.75% in the week, 25.87% month on month, and 13.46% year-on-year. In terms of market price, 15300-15700 yuan / ton was negotiated by the mainstream of spot bulk water in East China; Barrel negotiation 17000-18000 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 15500-15800 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 17000-18000 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw material calcium carbide: the supply of calcium carbide has decreased, but the downstream fatigue is difficult to support the sharp rebound of calcium carbide. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the overall operation is still finishing.

Comparison chart of carbide (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of business agency:

In terms of methanol, the production cost of methanol is supported to a certain extent. Methanol supply is expected to increase, demand is weakened, and the short-term domestic methanol market is weak and declining. BDO cost side support continued to be weak.

In terms of downstream products, the operating rate of PBT industry is general, and it just needs to be followed up; The market of gbl-nmp industrial chain fell, mainly contract procurement; The load of the main devices of downstream TPU and Pu slurry is around 50-60%, and it is mainly purchased with small orders just needed; The start-up of PBAT industry fell to 10%, and the production was slow under the cost of new capacity and sales pressure.

BDO supply will continue to increase, while some major downstream factories are expected to reduce their burdens or overhaul. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline.