According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of carbon black in the downstream market has also risen recently, driven by the rising price of raw material coal tar. On May 24, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8233 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the raw material coal tar market has been operating stably, with good support for carbon black cost side. The prices of coal tar pitch and anthracene oil in the downstream have both risen significantly, driving up the market price of coal tar. Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the market price of carbon black has also risen.

Supply and demand side: Currently, carbon black manufacturers have produced carbon black from high priced raw materials in the early stage, and there is a buildup of inventory on site. Some carbon black enterprises have arranged for a slight reduction in their inventory, while most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. Downstream market procurement is cautious, with most of them focusing on hard demand.

In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable, finished product inventory is at a reasonable level, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions in the carbon black market are relatively weak.

On the whole, the raw material coal tar market is operating stably, and the cost side has some support, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and there is no positive phenomenon in the field. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to decline last week, with overall reductions in various wire drawing brands. As of May 22nd, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7142.86 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -7.32% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the recent low point recovery in the Shandong propylene market has been slight. In the early stage, crude oil continued to weaken and rebounded last week, directly benefiting the spot price of propylene on the cost side. Downstream devices are operating and maintaining, with limited procurement volume, and the export pressure of propylene enterprises remains unchanged. The current market wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong, and it is expected that the Shandong propylene market will be mainly organized and operated. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost side news.

The narrow rebound in propylene prices does not significantly improve the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 75% last week, and recent shipments have remained generally stable with expectations of an increase in supply. There is sufficient supply of goods on the market, and inventory pressure has increased, with poor support from the supply side for spot prices. Meanwhile, the continued decline in futures dragged down the spot market. In terms of demand, the downstream plastic weaving production of the main force has slightly declined, and the operating rate of film material enterprises has recovered to 40%. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is poor, and procurement is mainly maintained for production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7287.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -5.36% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 17.96% compared to the same period last year. Last week, the low load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, continued horizontally, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The current weak demand for fiber materials on the site is dragging down the digestion speed of non-woven end products, and the enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are lagging behind. In addition, the supply side’s bearish situation is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, last week’s melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline. As of May 22nd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8125 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.42%. At present, the domestic health events are stabilizing, and local news in society is unable to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders have given up on orders, indicating that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has recently declined. The raw material propylene market is generally stable at a low level, with poor support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production while receiving goods, with weak demand release. The market is biased towards bearish guidance, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of May 18, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared with May 12, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 7866 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.12-5.19), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a weak decline. This week, the overall market situation of n-propanol in Shandong Province showed a downward trend. Some n-propanol suppliers adjusted the price of n-propanol downward by 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the market of n-propanol in Shandong Province has widened. As of May 18, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7000-7800 yuan/ton. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing in China is still operating stably. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild. The downstream market of n-propanol mainly purchases according to volume, and new orders are generally traded. The n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of May 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 177350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 5 and fallen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a weak decline in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation.

In terms of supply: Recently, the Russian Nickel Association has been receiving goods one after another, and coupled with an increase in the output of domestic electrowinning nickel projects, the global low inventory pattern of pure nickel may be difficult to continue. In terms of secondary nickel, Indonesia’s newly invested production capacity has been released, and nickel iron continues to flow back, thus impacting the domestic market.

In terms of demand: The weak real estate sector has led to a decrease in stainless steel production. The demand for new energy vehicles also fell short of expectations. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China still maintain year-on-year growth, the production capacity of battery grade nickel sulfate has shown signs of excess. In addition, the relative advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery in price has reduced the demand for nickel.

In summary, macro data performance is poor, with fundamental nickel prices plummeting but downstream consumption not actively purchasing on dips. The increase in nickel element supply is exerting significant pressure on nickel prices, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

Silicon metal prices continued to decline this week, with high inventory and sluggish demand still being important factors constraining prices. At the same time, the rebound in precipitation in the southwest region and the expected increase in resumption of production are also factors contributing to the downward trend of the spot market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 15460 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.25% on a weekly basis. The futures market fell by -7.06% throughout the week, closing at 14150 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 15th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15100-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15300-15400 yuan/ton, with an average of 15350 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15700-15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

This week, the overall number of silicon metal furnaces was 283. As of May 12th, the silicon metal furnace rate was around 39.42%, with 144 furnaces in Xinjiang, 28 furnaces in Sichuan, and 24 furnaces in Yunnan. Under the current price, the pressure of losses for silicon factories continues to increase, and the supply in the northwest has slightly contracted. The precipitation in the southwest has rebounded, and the number of furnaces in Sichuan has started to increase, while there is currently no intention of opening furnaces in Yunnan.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend, with a significant decline in the market after the holiday. The domestic supply prices generally decreased by around 10000 to 15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream range of single crystal density for models of primary solar energy has reached 145000 to 165000 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, with most manufacturers maintaining normal operation and ample supply performance, with good demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a mainstream quotation of 18200 yuan/ton. The profit compression of aluminum alloy enterprises is significant, and the overall operating rate has declined.

The reference price of domestic silicone DMC market is 14500 yuan/ton. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market has not improved well, and downstream demand is cautious, with demand support still being mainly loose. There has been little change in the construction of organic silicon DMC, and there is still some pressure on the supply side in some regions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, downstream demand has not improved and there is a significant pressure to remove inventory. Currently, the overall supply of metallic silicon continues to exceed demand. At present, production costs in the southern region have decreased, and there is an expectation of resuming production and supply. It is expected that metal silicon will still have a weak downward trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6 to May 12, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene increased narrowly, from 5671.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5703.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.57%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures continued to decline on May 11th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.87 per barrel, a decrease of $1.69 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.98 per barrel, a decrease of $1.43 or 1.9%. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession, and the increase in the number of Americans who apply for unemployment benefits roughly has put pressure on the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 250 yuan/ton on May 8, 2023, and is currently at 7050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7170 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has experienced a decline in recent times, with a continuous decline for four weeks.

In terms of industrial chain: This week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, and overall declined. The downstream styrene market continued to decline, dragging down the external market of pure benzene. The pure benzene market overall declined this week, and there were rumors that Sinopec’s listed price had a downward expectation, which once again affected the market mentality. After the hydrogenation benzene festival, it followed the overall downward trend of pure benzene, and the current factory price in the main production area is around 6900-7050 yuan/ton.

The crude benzene market has performed differently this week. The Shandong region did not make any adjustments this week, but still implemented post holiday prices. The Shanxi region saw a slight increase in prices, and other price adjustment regions also had limited changes. On the supply side, coking enterprises have slightly declined in production this week, but overall they are still operating in the range of over 75%, and the supply of crude benzene is still relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises have slightly declined in construction this week, and under the influence of recent poor market performance, some enterprises have production reduction and maintenance plans in the future, and market demand is expected to decline in the future. Overall, the recent decline in crude oil has led to a narrow decline in the price of pure benzene due to the drag. Downstream demand is expected to be weak, and in the future, the business community predicts that the price of crude benzene will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, with room for decline.

Gold prices hit a new 10-year high

Gold prices hit a new 10-year high. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 452.75 yuan/g on May 5, 2023, 1.81% higher than the average price of the spot market before the festival, and 3.03% higher than the beginning of last month (April 1).

Silver rose 4.58% after the holiday, up 42.49% from its low point in the past year

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5839.33 yuan/kg on May 5, 2023, 4.58% higher than the average price of spot market before the festival, 10.18% higher than the beginning of last month (April 1), and 9.25% higher than the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1). The low point in the past year appeared on July 18, 2022, and the current price has increased by 42.49% compared to the low point.

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise.

Policy logic

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25BP in May, and Powell’s comments on further interest rate policy were dove like, leading to expectations of easing monetary policy tightening in the future. The end of the bearish period is a positive one; Coupled with the renewed concern over the US banking crisis during holidays, concerns about regional banks and debt ceilings in the US have led to an increase in market risk aversion, and precious metal prices have once again reached new highs. Overall, the short-term interest rate hike cycle is still ongoing, and the upward space for precious metals has always been constrained before the expected rate hike is falsified. The pullback in precious metal prices on Friday night trading was mainly due to stronger than expected US employment data, with non farm employment data showing that US employers increased their recruitment and wages in April. This has cooled market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Although Friday’s employment data will not lead to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June, it is enough to calm those who are eager for the Fed to cut rates soon. The longer US interest rates remain high, the more pressure they put on non interest bearing gold.

Fundamental logic

1. Domestic consumption of precious metals has improved

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in the first quarter of 2023 was 291.58 tons, an increase of 12.03% compared to the same period in 2022.

Among them: 189.61 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%; 83.87 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 20.47%; Industrial and other gold consumption reached 18.10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%.

2. Strong demand for central bank purchases

The global central bank’s gold purchase volume reached a record high of 1136 tons in 2022, and this trend is still continuing in 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, global central banks maintained net purchases of gold, with central banks and other institutions purchasing 228 tons of gold in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 176%. Among them, the Singapore Monetary Authority purchased 51.8 tons of gold in the first two months of this year; The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months from November 2022 to March 2023, with a total increase of 57.85 tons in the first quarter. By the end of March, China’s gold reserve had reached 2068.38 tons.

3. Year-on-year growth in domestic supply

In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic raw material gold production was 84.972 tons, an increase of 1.571 tons compared to the same period in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.88%. Among them, 66.506 tons of gold from gold minerals and 18.466 tons of non ferrous byproducts were produced. Among them, large gold enterprises (groups) produce 32.717 tons of mineral gold in their mines, accounting for 49.19% of the national total. Overseas mines such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold achieved a mineral gold output of 14.395 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.17%.

In addition, in the first quarter of 2023, the production of imported raw materials was 29.901 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.41%. If this part of the imported raw material production was added, a total of 114.873 tons of gold were produced nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%.

Increased probability of high consolidation of precious metals

At present, the price of precious metals has reached a new decade high. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to relatively full risk aversion, which has been basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

However, the economic vitality demonstrated by domestic consumption during the May holiday, coupled with China’s first quarter economic data growth of 4.5%, partially alleviated concerns about a global economic recession. Coupled with the high interest rate state of the Federal Reserve, this has to some extent suppressed the prices of non bearing asset precious metals.

It is expected that precious metal prices may experience weak upward trend in the short term, with high volatility and consolidation being the main trend, while they remain bullish in the medium to long term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the rare earth market fell sharply in April, and the trend of the domestic rare earth market declined. On April 27, the commodity price index BPI was 967 points, down 24 points from the first day, down 28.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1343 points (2021-10-19), and up 46.52% from the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have significantly decreased. As of the 28th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 540000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 13.94% in April; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 435000 yuan/ton, which decreased by 16.75% in April; The price of neodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 18.02% in April; The price of neodymium metal was 600000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 16.08% in April; The price of metal praseodymium was 610000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12.23% in April; The price of praseodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.95% in April.

In early April, the listed prices of rare earths in the northern region remained generally stable, with prices higher than market expectations. The light rare earths market stabilized after the decline, but the continued lack of downstream demand after the Qingming Festival intensified the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers, and the light rare earths market continued to decline. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be bearish on the short-term price of rare earth. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to fall.

The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium series in China has decreased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 1.905 million yuan/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of 8.19% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.875 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.09% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.63 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.07% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide prices of 8.4 million yuan/ton and metal terbium prices of 10.75 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, the downstream procurement is very cold, and the oversupply has caused the market price to fall. In addition, there is an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, and the supply of rare earth is sufficient. The recovery of the rare earth terminal industry is slow, and transactions are scarce. The rare earth market prices continue to decline.

According to statistics, although the demand for new energy vehicles is moderate, and the production and sales increased in March, the downstream permanent magnet procurement is very scarce, and the price of rare earth market is still not optimistic.

At the end of March, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023: the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2023 was 120000 tons, an increase of approximately 19% compared to last year, including 109057 tons of rock and mineral rare earth, an increase of 22% compared to last year; Ionic rare earth ore is 10943 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to last year. The mining output of rare earth has risen sharply, which has hit market confidence in some ways, and the price of rare earth has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is not good. In addition, the second quarter is gradually in the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline of the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.

In April, the butadiene rubber market rebounded slightly from a low point. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of butadiene rubber was 11380 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% from 11220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strengthened; In April, downstream tire factories started operating with a slight fluctuation, and support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was just needed but weak; In late April, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased slightly by 100 yuan/ton, and the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.

Supply side: In April, multiple enterprises of polybutadiene rubber stopped for maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side of polybutadiene rubber was relieved.

Cost side: In April, the price of butadiene slightly increased, while the cost side of butadiene rubber significantly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of butadiene was 8851 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from the 8551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the natural rubber market fell first and then rose, but remained at a low level, with a relatively negative impact on butadiene rubber. As of April 27th, the price was at 11530 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from 11526 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point during the cycle was at 11210 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Downstream tire production in April slightly increased compared to March, with a strong demand for rubber support but no significant increase. It is understood that as of mid April 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the raw material price has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber has risen. In addition, many enterprises have significantly alleviated the pressure on production and supply, and the small fluctuations in downstream construction have a strong demand for support for butadiene rubber. In the short term, there is support for the butadiene rubber market, but there is still a lack of significant improvement in downstream construction. In addition, the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s butadiene rubber plant has also increased supply pressure to a certain extent, It is expected that there will be a significant upward trend in the later stage of polybutadiene rubber.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 10733 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11066 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.11%.

The factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in China ranges from 9600 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s quotation has partially increased. The equipment of domestic coal based activated carbon production enterprises is operating normally, and the spot supply is relatively high compared to the annual average level. Market inquiries have increased, and transactions are improving.

The cost support for the upstream main raw materials of activated carbon, such as coconut shell, fruit shell, and charcoal, is stable. Downstream industries such as power and medicine are increasing in procurement, and demand is improving. The procurement for drinking water, water purification, and food industries is increasing, and the market atmosphere is good.

Prediction: Currently, the overall activated carbon market has sufficient supply and active procurement. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 21, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4700 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.08%. Compared to April 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4800 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.17-4.21), the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a trend of first decline and then weak stabilization and consolidation. In mid to early April, domestic dimethyl carbonate on-site supply was tight, supported by tight spot supply, and the dimethyl carbonate market was operating in a narrow upward trend. However, due to the poor performance of downstream demand, some domestic dimethyl carbonate factories lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate by around 200-300 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. Subsequently, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate was weak, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The new orders were generally traded. As of April 21, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 4600-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is average, and the support provided to dimethyl carbonate is limited. Some factories have resumed operations before the holiday, and the supply side support on site is relatively loose. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, the downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate will increase, and it remains to be seen whether the transmission between supply and demand can be smooth. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at Business Society predicts that in the short term, The domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly subject to narrow range adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell, and the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall. On April 23, the rare earth index was 460 points, down 54.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and up 69.74% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have declined. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 570000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.56%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 470000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.57%; The price of neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.03%; The price of neodymium metal was 620000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 6.06%; The price of metal praseodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.44%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 475000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 2.06%.

Recently, the light rare earth market has continued to decline, and the buyer’s wait-and-see sentiment has intensified. Downstream demand has not yet recovered, and market information is still weak. The light rare earth market is constantly declining. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be short of the short-term price of rare earth. Affected by multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to decline.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is still acceptable. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 674000 and 653000 units in March, with a month on month increase of 22% and 24.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% and 34.8%, respectively. The market share reached 26.6%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the purchase of downstream permanent magnets is very rare, and the price of light rare earth is not optimistic.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is poor. In addition, the second quarter is gradually entering the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline in the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.

This week (April 17-23, 2023), cost stability was maintained and nylon filament prices were firm. The supply of nylon manufacturers is sufficient, and the downstream weaving industry is operating steadily. In some regions, some specifications are selling well, but the overall market is still in a state of oversupply. The actual transaction is discussed in detail according to the order.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of nylon filament was strong this week (April 17-23). As of April 23, 2023, the quotation for DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region was 18520 yuan/ton; The quotation for nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16250 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 19200 yuan/ton, which is consistent with last week’s price.

Upstream raw material market

This week (April 17-23, 2023), there is no significant change in the cost side. On April 21, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.78% in the price of caprolactam. There are changes in on-site devices, the supply expectation is tight, supporting the firm offer of manufacturers, the downstream polymerization plants are on the sidelines, the actual purchase is cautious, bargain hunting or small order follow up, and it is expected that in the short term, the market price of caprolactam, the raw material, will be dominated by narrow consolidation and operation.

Future prospects

At present, the price of nylon market is stable, the upstream raw material market is stabilized, and the cost support function is temporarily maintained. Nylon manufacturers have stable starting and production capacity. The production and sales of downstream and terminal markets have improved, but it is still unclear, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Business Society analysts expect the nylon filament market to operate steadily in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 198.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 36.13% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, but downstream procurement is weakened

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The price of downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 1835.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1828.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.34%. On weekends, prices have decreased by 22.14% compared to the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1080.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1030.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 4.63%. Overall, upstream support is good, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future Market Forecast

In late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. However, the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to be weak. From April 7 to 14, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell from 15280 yuan/ton to 15080 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.31%, 10.34% month on month and 18.49% year-on-year. Downstream demand side follow-up is weak, overall market confidence is insufficient, and the supply of goods is relatively abundant, with limited support for the market. The aggregated MDI market continues to be weak.

On the supply side, Shanghai Huntsman’s aggregated MDI price in April 2023 was 20000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged month on month. The MDI distribution channel of Wanhua Chemical Polymerization had a one-time price of 18000 yuan/ton in early April, which remained unchanged. The listing price of Aggregated MDI in April 2023 was 19800 yuan/ton, which remained stable month on month.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: the price of domestic pure benzene market rose significantly, and the spot transaction was 7410-7500 yuan/ton; Shandong market price was 7200-7350 yuan/ton. The overall demand for pure benzene in the downstream has increased, and the short-term domestic pure benzene market is at a high level. Raw material aniline: expected domestic aniline to rebound slightly. The inventory of aniline is slow and the price has slightly increased. The cost side of aggregated MDI is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, the overall follow-up ability of the demand side is average, while downstream purchasing power is weak, and the overall downstream consumption capacity is still relatively limited. Short term aggregate MDI demand side support is insufficient.

In the future market forecast, the overall follow-up ability of the downstream industry is limited, and the short-term market lacks positive support. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic MDI market will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in March. The market price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 7500.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, a decrease of 5.33%; Later, it rose to 7633.33 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 7.51%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 50.96% compared to the same period last year. On March 30th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 38.75, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 28.65% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell first and then increased in March, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in March. The price of propylene dropped from 7522.60 yuan/ton on March 1 to 6948.60 yuan/ton on March 27, a decrease of 7.63%; Later, it rose to 7138.60 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 2.73%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 14.77% compared to the same period last year. Upstream cost support is average, with a slight increase in prices at the end of the month, which has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol first fell and then rose in March. The market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 11200.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 10600.00 yuan/ton on March 15, a decrease of 5.36%; Later, it rose to 10666.67 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 0.63%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 39.85% compared to the same period last year. The downstream market has slightly declined, but prices have increased at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early April, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream propylene prices slightly increased at the end of the month, with good cost support. At the end of the month, there is an upward trend in the downstream market for new pentanediol, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market in March increased slightly. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was 0.92% higher than the price of 4340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the year-on-year price was flat.

In March, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, and the situation of goods on the site was moderate. The manufacturer’s inventory was low. The terminal upstream coal price trend was stable, while the nitric acid price trend was rising, while the liquid ammonia price fell, and the downstream demand was moderate. The ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and downstream procurement is on demand. Recently, downstream procurement of nitro compound fertilizer has increased, while domestic procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has decreased. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5200-5300 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4200-4300 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

In March, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased, with the average domestic nitric acid price at the end of the month being 2533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to the price of 2483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China quote 2700-2800 yuan/ton, while northern and central China quote 2400-2650 yuan/ton. The market has ample supply of goods, high price trading is under pressure, and high-end prices are often sold at reduced prices. However, downstream demand is relatively stable, supporting the supply and circulation of goods. The trend of rising prices in low price regions is still evident. The rising price of raw material nitric acid has formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly.

In March, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market declined, with the price of liquid ammonia reaching 4000 yuan/ton by the end of the month, down 8.88% from the price of 4390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, prices in main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Lianghu all fell, mainly due to an increase in supply, and the restart of some overhauled devices. The sentiment of rising supply affected manufacturers to lower prices. Moreover, there is little change in the downstream field of liquid ammonia, with general agricultural demand and just a need for stable industrial demand. The decline in upstream liquid ammonia prices has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate is limited.

Recently, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, coupled with the low market price of raw material liquid ammonia, but the price trend of nitric acid is relatively strong in the later period. The ammonium nitrate analyst from the business agency believes that the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable in the later period.

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5940.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.62%. The current price has decreased by 18.79% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In March, the domestic potassium nitrate market fell. From the figure above, it can be seen that the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and falling for five consecutive months since 2023, and the market continues to decline this month. The raw material potassium chloride market has declined, with poor cost support. The potassium nitrate market has seen a light turnover and a decline in the market. According to statistics from the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 5500-5900 yuan/ton (for reference only), which varies depending on the procurement situation.

In March, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fluctuated and fell: currently, the market sales price of domestic potassium chloride 60% crystal is about 3200-3500 yuan/ton. In terms of imported potassium, the price of imported 62% white potassium is mostly 3300-3500 yuan/ton, and the price of large particle red potassium is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. “Border trade has seen the arrival of white potassium in succession, and the supply and sales of goods are slightly difficult. The surrounding manufacturers mainly purchase on demand, and the demand has significantly decreased.”. Currently, the price of 62% white potassium at ports is mostly 3100-3150 yuan/ton.

Currently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is in a weak downward trend, with poor cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall below in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

The price of o-xylene fluctuated and rose in March

According to the price trend chart of ortho xylene of the business community, as of March 29, the price of ortho xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50% compared to the price of ortho xylene of 8000 yuan/ton at the end of February 28 of last month. The market of orthoxylene industry chain was supported by rising prices, and the domestic orthoxylene market rose significantly in March.

The market of raw materials mixed with xylene fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency, as of March 29, the price of mixed xylene was 7540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the price of mixed xylene of 7450 yuan/ton on March 1. The price waveform of mixed xylene was adjusted in March. Overall, the price of mixed xylene rose in March, with a strong upward momentum for orthoxylene.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community, as of March 29, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell. The overall market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, with increased support for ortho xylene.

Future prospects

Analysts from the business agency Orthoxylene Data believe that in March, the market in the upstream and downstream of the Orthoxylene industry chain fluctuated and increased, while the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride rose, with strong support for the rise of Orthoxylene. In the future, mixed xylene has limited upward support, phthalic anhydride prices are stagnant, and o-xylene costs have supported limited demand to stabilize temporarily. It is expected that the price of o-xylene in the future will fluctuate and stabilize.

Last week (March 20-26), downstream procurement was cautious, viscose staple fibers were generally quiet, and the factory was firm and stable in price. In the early stage, domestic high-end manufacturers announced that they would start rotating maintenance, which slightly boosted and supported the market. Some of the market just needed to sign orders, but the overall volume was not large. The startup rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, with the current overall industry load of about 77.68%. It is rumored in the market that a new round of price measures may be taken by major domestic factories at the end of the month, but the price adjustment intention of viscose factories is also relatively low, and the overall wait and see is the main factor.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 26, the factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13320 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous price.

Market of human cotton yarn

Last week (March 20-26), the downstream market for human cotton yarn continued to operate steadily. The downstream market for human cotton yarn was still mainly in need of procurement, and the transaction atmosphere was relatively general. The commencement of construction was basically maintained, and the recovery was not as expected. Currently, it is difficult for the end market demand to significantly improve, and it is also difficult for yarn enterprises to have a strong position. They should adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, as of March 26, the average ex-factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17666 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous price.

Aftermarket Forecast

The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market is limited. Large viscose staple fiber factories still focus on executing early orders. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, analysts from the Business News Agency predict that the prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn may continue to maintain stable operation in the short term, waiting for a new round of prices to be announced at the end of the month.

This week (March 17th to March 24th), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was reduced in a narrow range, resulting in a weak market atmosphere. The spot market price in East China was 16500 yuan/ton last weekend, down 0.3% from 16450 yuan/ton this weekend.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market continued to operate weakly, with manufacturers’ strong intention to hold down prices and focus on a small amount of replenishment, leading to a relatively sluggish market trading atmosphere. Recently, resource costs in Gabon have been low when arriving at Hong Kong. At the same time, after the decline in spot prices, traders’ financial pressure has increased, and their willingness to cash out has gradually increased, with a relatively clear trend of low price shipping. Tianjin Port Macao Block: 45 yuan/ton, Gabon: 41.2 yuan/ton, South Africa semi carbonated carbon: 33.1 yuan/ton. Qinzhou Port – Macao Block: 45 yuan/ton, Gabon: 41.3 yuan/ton, South Africa: 34.3 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. As can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, and after a slight increase in prices at the end of August, it has continued to stabilize temporarily. After a slight recovery in prices at the end of September, prices have remained stable for a long time since October, fluctuated slightly in November, decreased slightly after December, and continued to decline slightly after a temporary stabilization in January.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese has temporarily stabilized this week, reaching 2450 US dollars per ton as of March 24th, with a decrease of 100 US dollars per ton during the cycle. Recently, the market negotiation atmosphere is limited and there is strong wait-and-see sentiment.

This week, the domestic electrolytic manganese market continued to operate weakly, with the mainstream price in the domestic market ranging from 15000 to 15200 yuan/ton. The mainstream domestic factory price is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The market still maintains on-demand procurement, with overall trading slightly cold. This round of steel bidding basically went down, dragging down the market mentality and causing a slight decline in market prices. From a comprehensive perspective, downstream purchasing intentions have always been low, and market trading and investment are not active, and demand is still weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the overall market is weak, and it is difficult to achieve significant improvement in the short term. It is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will remain weak in the future.

This week, the silicon and manganese market has been operating weakly and steadily, with both north and south profits at low levels, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, and a gradually widening cost gap among various companies. Prices in the north have eased slightly, with a month-on-month decrease of around 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The south is relatively strong. The futures market is operating in a narrow range of volatility, with its trading trend initially subdued and then rising. According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Agency, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was around 7000-7150 yuan/ton on March 24th, with an average market price of 7116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23%.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap, and powder (electrolytic manganese) in January 2023 was approximately 32683.5 tons, up 31.1% from December. In January 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 2200.5 tons, down about 56.02% from December.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak and declining. From March 17th to 24th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9516 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.18%. The price rose 0.71% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 15.43%. The spot price of raw material pure benzene is weak and volatile, and cost support has weakened. At the same time, some manufacturers have increased supply, while downstream demand is general. The industry’s mentality is weak, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market has fallen.

On the cost side, the domestic market price of pure benzene has increased slightly, and the output has decreased. The pure benzene in East China port has been removed from the warehouse, and there are still maintenance plans for the supply devices in the later stage, easing the pressure on the domestic supply of pure benzene. Spot transaction: 6990-7180 yuan/ton; The Shandong market price traded at 6960-7070 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the unit operating rate of the cyclohexanone industry remained at around 70% this week, with a slight increase in supply.

On the demand side, caprolactam prices fell. The recent weakening of upstream crude oil prices has affected the purchasing mentality in the downstream market. The overall caprolactam market is still cautious. In addition, some enterprises in the north have increased inventory pressure and partially reduced prices for sales. The overall price center of the cyclohexanone spot market is tending to be lower. The demand side for cyclohexanone was negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, cyclohexanone analysts from the business agency predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market volatility will be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. On March 13th, the market price of aniline was 12600 yuan/ton, and on March 17th, the price was 13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.55% compared to last week.

2、 Analytical Review

Pure benzene market: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated and fell, with insufficient support for the market price of styrene. The offer for pure benzene moved downward, with limited transaction volume. Shandong Refinery is not willing to hold goods, actively adjusting prices to promote shipment, and the overall market price has moved downward. In February, due to centralized maintenance in the downstream, the market supply was relatively abundant, and prices were expected to be weak and volatile. On Thursday (March 16th), the price of pure benzene was 7208 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week and 12.09% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price was 2483 yuan/ton, and on March 16, the price was 2467 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 4.73% compared to last week, and increased by 12.04% compared to the same period last year.

“There is less supply and more demand for aniline, and there is no significant expectation of a short-term decline in the raw material pure benzene. It is expected that the aniline market will be strong in February.”.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

The logic of the aniline market fluctuation still lies in the supply and demand side. With the upcoming implementation of the planned overhaul in Jinling, the supply in the north will continue to enter a tight pattern. It is expected that the aniline market will be strong in the next cycle, or there will be expectations of continued growth.

Overview of price trend of metal magnesium

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of the 20th, the average market price of magnesium ingots in China was 20600 yuan/ton, down 1.28% on a weekly basis. This week, the domestic magnesium ingot market continued to be weak, and the price of magnesium was affected by demand. The quotation was continuously lowered, with a decrease of around 300 yuan/ton.

Factory side

At present, the market sentiment is in a wait-and-see state, with few inquiries and a weak market transaction atmosphere. The manufacturer has a strong bearish sentiment and is positive in allowing prices and shipping, but the actual transaction situation is not ideal. Some manufacturers are unwilling to reduce their prices due to high production costs, and some choose not to quote for the time being.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 7592 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The ferrosilicon market is experiencing a situation of oversupply, while domestic and foreign demand is average. Due to an increase in electricity costs of around 0.2 yuan/kWh in the main production areas, the production enthusiasm of factories in some production areas has decreased, some manufacturers have avoided peak production, and some have reduced furnace shutdowns.

The blue charcoal market is operating steadily and weakly. Some blue charcoal enterprises have lowered their prices by 40-100 yuan/ton, while the rest of the market has not been adjusted, and will continue to adjust in the near future.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the inventory pressure of magnesium plants is significant, and the market demand is cold. The manufacturers have no choice but to reduce prices and sell goods. Superimposed by weak shocks in the raw material market and many negative factors, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will remain weak in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell slightly this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of acetic anhydride was 5275 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from 5300 yuan/ton on March 10; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 0.24% compared to 5262.50 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw materials fell and cost support was insufficient. The price of acetic anhydride fell slightly this week.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell this week

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart of the business community, as of March 20, the acetic acid price was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the acetic acid price of 3283.33 yuan/ton on March 3; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 1.59% compared to 3150 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell. This week, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell. The cost of acetic anhydride was not supported by rising costs. The upward momentum of acetic anhydride weakened and the downward pressure increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the Business Club, as of March 20, the methanol price was 2633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared to the price of 2620.83 yuan/ton on March 10. This week, methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated, the cost of acetic acid stabilized, and the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride stabilized. However, downward pressure on acetic anhydride remained.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business News Agency’s acetic anhydride data believe that the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and fallen this week, while the price of methanol has fluctuated and consolidated, resulting in a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride. In the future, there is still pressure on the cost of acetic anhydride to decline, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize due to fluctuations in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 16440 yuan/ton. Compared to the March 12, 2023 (silicone DMC reference price 16960 yuan/ton) price, the price was reduced by 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, this week (3.13-3.17), the overall domestic silicone DMC market showed a continuous weak decline. During the week, Shandong large factories successively lowered the shipment price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative decrease of around 800 yuan/ton during the week. Other factories also mostly followed the decline in organosilicon DMC quotations. As of March 17, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price reference was around 16000-16800 yuan/ton.

The main factor affecting the market trend of organosilicon DMC is demand. Currently, the overall downstream demand for organosilicon DMC is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is slow. The lack of follow-up on new orders is difficult to support the relatively high price of organosilicon DMC after its early rise. Therefore, the overall market situation of organosilicon DMC has eased and declined.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

Currently, although the supply side of silicone DMC has been actively regulated, the overall supply side on the market is still on the high side. The supply side has given some pressure, and the overall supply and demand support is relatively weak. According to the silicone DMC data analyst of the business agency, in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mostly be adjusted and operated in a weak and narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the BDO market continued to decline. From March 6 to 10, the domestic BDO price fell from 13160 yuan/ton to 12780 yuan/ton, and the price fell 2.89% in the cycle, 5.45% month-on-month and 55.25% year-on-year.

Some BDO devices were overhauled, and the market supply was reduced. At the same time, the bidding price of the factory was high, and the production enterprises were strong. However, due to the sluggish follow-up of terminal demand, most downstream industries are under pressure on costs, and have a weak intention to purchase raw materials and seriously depress prices. The decrease in supply did not offset the downturn in demand, and the focus of the market continued to decline.

In terms of cost, raw calcium carbide: the demand is low, the market performance of oversupply is gradually strengthened, and the market situation of calcium carbide is sluggish. In terms of methanol, the cost support is temporarily stable and the supply is relatively abundant. The methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. BDO’s cost side is negative.

On the supply side, the bidding and transaction of the factory side are fair, and the production enterprises mainly keep the price. BDO has a good supply side.

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream industry was average, and the contradiction between supply and demand appeared, which aggravated the cautious bearish sentiment in the market. Nearly 80% of the PTMEG-spandex industry chain industry has started, and the overall digestion is good. The shutdown and maintenance of Kaixiang chemical plant in the PBT industry have not changed much since the commencement; The PU slurry and TPU industries in the polyurethane field started around 50% to 60%, and the orders just need to be followed up. The demand for short-term BDO is not significantly positive.

According to the aftermarket forecast, although the maintenance supply of the manufacturing enterprises has decreased, and the bidding price has remained in a state of price keeping, the demand-side performance continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, which suppresses the market trend. BDO analysts of the Business Agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be adjusted at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8233 yuan/ton, which was 2.95% lower than the average ex-factory price of 8483 yuan/ton on March 6.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8200 yuan/ton, which was 0.20% higher than the average market price of 8183 yuan/ton on March 6.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of March 10, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8200 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7500-8900 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer issued many early orders, and the overall market delivery and investment situation was general. Downstream procurement is prudent, and replenishment is mainly needed, and new orders are limited. As of March 10, the price quoted in Guizhou is about 29000-32000 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market overall ushered in a small rise. With the coming of the spring planting season, the demand for phosphate fertilizer downstream of the phosphate rock terminal will also gradually increase. The demand side will give more support to the phosphate rock. The supply in the phosphate rock field will continue to be tight. With the joint support of supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock market will continue to close up.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was poor, and the market transactions were light. At present, phosphoric acid enterprises mainly supply orders from old customers, and terminal demand needs to be released.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the market of raw material yellow phosphorus has been in a bad trend recently, and the phosphoric acid market is dominated by wait-and-see. At present, the market has light trading volume and few transactions. In the case of weak cost and demand, it is expected that the price of thermal phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 176.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 44.35%. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on March 12 was 46.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.41% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 157.62% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support is good, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 1925.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1902.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.17%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 19.64% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1205.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is good, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late March, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has a downward trend over the weekend, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

The propane market in Shandong continued to decline this week. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton on March 10, and 5835 yuan/ton on March 10, with a decline of 1.1% in the week, down 24.1% from the same period last year.

As of March 10, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ March 10th

East China/ 5850-5950 yuan/ton

North China/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

This week (3.6-3.10), Shandong propane market continued its decline, with the decline in the north greater than that in the south. The overall performance of the domestic propane market this week was weak, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Most of the mainstream market prices followed the market, and the upstream shipping willingness was obvious. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of Shandong propane market is 5750-5850 yuan/ton.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in March 2023, and propane was 720 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane is 740 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars/ton from last month.

In general, the import market is weak, the downstream products are not profitable, and the market is still bearish. It is expected to enter the weak and volatile operation of propane market next week.

The price of DOTP fell in February

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the average price of DOTP was 9975 yuan/ton, down 7.21% from the average price of 10750 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the plasticizer enterprises started to recover, the supply of DOTP increased, the price of raw materials fell, and the cost support of DOTP was insufficient. In February, the price of DOTP fell in shock.

The price of raw materials fell in February

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 28, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, down 14.06% from 10666.67 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), isooctanol enterprises resumed construction in succession. The supply of isooctanol was sufficient, the downstream demand remained weak, the inventory remained before the festival, and downstream customers sought bargains to replenish the inventory. In February, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP was greater. Later, the demand for isooctanol started to stabilize, the price of isooctanol stabilized, and the momentum for DOTP to rise remained.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 28, the PTA price was 5597.27 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the price of 5763.64 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, PTA enterprises resumed construction in succession, downstream demand rose slowly, PTA orders were poor, and PTA prices fell in February; With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the PTA demand is expected to rise, the PTA price is expected to rise in the future, the DOTP cost support remains, and the DOTP rising power is expected to remain.

Downstream PVC market fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the PVC quotation was 6313.33 yuan/ton as of February 28, down 0.39% from the price of 6338.33 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, the spot price of PVC fell first and then rose, with a slight decline overall. The performance of real estate data in February was poor, the resumption of work and production was less than expected, the PVC spot market transaction was tepid, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods was not high. In short, the growth of DOTP demand was limited, and the support for the rise of DOTP was insufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, in February, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell sharply, the price of PTA fell first and then rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material fell; Downstream customers are looking for bargains to replenish their stocks. The DOTP demand in February was less than expected, and the DOTP demand support was insufficient. With the economic recovery, the price of isooctanol has stabilized, the price of PTA has stopped rising, and the demand for PVC has recovered slowly. In the future, the cost support still has a slow recovery of demand. It is expected that the DOTP will shake and consolidate strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. The price was 7370 yuan/ton on February 27; On March 5, the price was 7480 yuan/ton, up 1.49% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of crude oil, the overall trend of crude oil this week was fluctuating and upward. Russia has implemented a production reduction of 500000 barrels per day since March to deal with the western embargo and price ceiling on Russian crude oil goods. In addition, Russia’s European market share has almost disappeared, and it has been replaced by Asian long-distance destinations with higher cost and longer time. The export volume of seaborne crude oil to European countries fell to 113000 barrels per day. Crude oil exports to Nordic countries fell to 0, and exports to Mediterranean countries fell for three consecutive weeks, to an average of 162000 barrels per day.

Against the background of market worries about the global economic recession, there are still many uncertain factors in crude oil supply. The international crude oil supply as a whole has maintained a stable and tight state, among which, China’s crude oil consumption has always maintained a positive growth trend.

On March 5, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 78.16 USD/barrel, up 3.28% from the beginning of this month (75.68 USD/barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil was US $84.75/barrel, up 3.30% from the beginning of the month (US $82.04/barrel).

In terms of external market, the price of mixed xylene in Asia showed an upward trend this week. On February 27, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 7470.5 yuan/ton, and on March 2, the price was 7563.5 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton year-on-year, or 1.24%.

In terms of downstream px, the px market was stable this week. The price of PX was 8500 yuan/ton on February 27 and 8500 yuan/ton on March 5, which was the same as last week.

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China this week showed an upward trend, the price of mixed xylene in the upstream rose, the price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream rose, and the market in the upstream and downstream of the ox industrial chain warmed up. The price of OX was 8000 yuan/ton on February 27, and 8300 yuan/ton on March 5, with an increase of 3.75%.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rose slightly this week, with the price of 8376.2 yuan/ton on February 27 and 8530.6 yuan/ton on March 5, up 154.4 yuan/ton or 1.84% from last week.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Domestic and foreign oil prices gradually stabilized and recovered this week. By the close of Friday, Brent crude oil had risen by nearly 4%, WTI crude oil had risen by nearly 4.5%, and the main domestic crude oil contract 2304 had risen by nearly 3%. The international oil price is expected to return to the level of US $100 this year, and the recovery of Chinese demand is one of the most important driving forces. It is expected that the international oil price will rise before it falls next week.

The supply and demand situation of mixed xylene is improving. With the further improvement of the downstream PX, the domestic consumption of mixed xylene is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, the terminal consumption of gasoline in spring and the peak demand season of the chemical fiber industry will also gradually open. The terminal consumption of mixed xylene is expected to be optimistic and the advantage will not be reduced. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 31550 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 31500 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.16% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was slightly reduced this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. At present, the supply and demand of the yellow phosphorus market is deadlocked. On the whole, there are few transactions in the market, and the price is slightly reduced. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 30500-32500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 2, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1074 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of February 27. At present, there is little change in the supply and demand information in the phosphate ore field. The high market price is mostly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is generally stable. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business association believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly be stable and stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change in the supply and demand information.

In terms of coke, up to now, the market price of coke in Shandong port has been temporarily stable, the quasi-first level ex-warehouse price of the port is about 2750-2800 yuan/ton, the first-level ex-warehouse price is 2850-2900 yuan/ton, the port price has been temporarily stable, the port inventory has continued to rise, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. In terms of freight, it is 230 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port on the 3rd, and 220 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port. The freight is temporarily stable.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose this week. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 8400 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 8483.33 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.99% during the week. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be dominated by wait-and-see mentality in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that at present, the market price of phosphorus ore and coke in the upstream is temporarily stable, and the cost support is acceptable, and the price of yellow phosphorus enterprises is mainly high. Downstream enterprises in the yellow phosphorus market are not highly receptive to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the supply and demand sides are deadlocked on the sidelines. On the whole, the market transaction is light. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will stagnate in the short term, with limited adjustment space, and pay attention to changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 19333.33 yuan/ton, 4.50% higher than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.48% higher than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 28, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared with the price of 24500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 10.30% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the domestic price of chloroform rose by 26.32%, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell by 1.71%. In general, the cost of R22 raw materials rose sharply, and the downstream trading entities were active in purchasing, supported by cost and demand, the manufacturers successively raised the factory price, which helped the market price of R22 continue to rise in February.

In February, the domestic trichloroethylene price as a whole stopped falling and rebounded, and the hydrofluoric acid price as a whole weakened and stabilized. In general, the upstream raw material price as a whole stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the domestic R134a price rose slightly supported by the small recovery of cost.

In terms of raw materials, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price weakened and stabilized in February, and the trichloroethylene price stopped falling and recovered. The rising cost will further support the future R134a price.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that under the support of both cost and demand, the domestic R22 price is expected to continue to rise in March, and the overall R134a price is expected to continue to be stable and strong in March.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 27 was 104.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 27.05% from the highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 23.40% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020.. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market continued to decline in late February, with a range of about 1.6%: on the 21st, the main market price was 1956.25 yuan/ton, and on the 28th, the main price was 1925 yuan/ton. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the demand for downstream purchase orders is weak, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride market is not supported enough, and the market continues to decline slightly.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the domestic hydrochloric acid price increased slightly by 1.22% in late February, and the mainstream market price was about 164-168 yuan/ton. From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, it has been slightly increased recently; The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly in the near future, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, and the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. The domestic market price of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) in late February fell first and then went up: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 21 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28; Among them, the highest stage price was 6082 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest stage price was 5964 yuan/ton on the 24th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.98%.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw material market is stable and slightly upward, but due to the continued weakness of downstream demand and the sufficient inventory of manufacturers from the year before, the supply is more than the demand is less, and the market support is unfavorable. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will continue to be weak in the near future.

This week, the spot tin market price (2.17-2.24) fluctuated in the market and went down as a whole. The average price of the domestic market was 214360 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 211410 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.38%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will rise as a whole after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

In the futures market, the trend of the futures market this week was somewhat volatile. In the macro aspect, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates. The Fed’s statement on Tuesday made the market worried about raising interest rates increase. The metal market was generally under pressure. The price of Shanghai Tin fluctuated more frequently during the week.

In terms of the spot market, the market trend this week was basically consistent with that of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, with frequent fluctuations in the week and overall downward trend. The price fluctuation is obvious. The market trading in the week is slightly cold, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. After Monday’s fall, the market has some bargain-hunting. On the supply side, the smelter is currently operating steadily, but the price fluctuation in the week has made the manufacturers have a strong attitude of price fixing. In terms of demand, with the lower tin price, the mentality of replenishment in the downstream is gradually rising. It is common for the market to seek bargains to replenish the stock. The overall social inventory declines, and the market just needs to remain. On the whole, the demand for loose supply is weak. In the future, the tin market is expected to remain stable and weak. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of macroeconomic policies on the market mentality.

The base metal index stood at 1260 points on February 26, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.03% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 96.26% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 8th week of 2023 (2.20-2.24), with cobalt (2.58%), tin (1.51%) and zinc (0.77%) among the top three commodities. There were 9 commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products were neodymium oxide (- 4.61%), neodymium metal (- 3.72%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.90%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.54%.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of the 24th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.86% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, the Anhui Tongling Linfa phthalic anhydride has started to ship normally, the Xinyang Group’s 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably, and the Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride has operated normally. Now the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is sufficient, the phthalic anhydride delivery is normal, and the phthalic anhydride market has risen slightly.

Cost side: o-benzene market is stable

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene is temporarily stable. As of the 24th, the price of ortho benzene is 8500 yuan/ton. This week, the price trend is temporarily stable. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but the port inventory changes little. The stable ortho benzene price brings some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with an increase of 0.40%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak. Affected by the fluctuation of DOP price, the price of phthalic anhydride is low, but the overall price is low.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is stable in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later period.

Ethylene oxide price rebounded in February

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on February 22, 2023 was 6800 yuan/ton, up 7.94% from 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, the resumption of terminal production and the improvement of downstream demand are the main reasons for the strong price of ethylene oxide.

Overview of fundamentals

On the supply side, ethylene oxide production capacity is relatively stable, the price of raw material ethylene has little change, and the support is limited. On the demand side, the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer has warmed after the holiday, especially the terminal real estate operating rate, and the demand is expected to be large. At present, the production enthusiasm of polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer enterprises has increased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide has improved. In the early stage, when the fundamentals of ethylene oxide were weak, ethylene oxide manufacturers and holding traders began to increase their prices.

Aftermarket forecast

The price of raw material ethylene is relatively stable, the terminal demand is improved, the downstream demand is increased, the market of the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer is improved, and the demand for ethylene oxide is expected to improve. In the early stage, the price of ethylene oxide fell, and the price was low. There was some room for rebound. It is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend in the short term, with strong shocks.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price rose slightly this week, with the average market price rising from 155.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 156.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.65%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 36.07%. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 19 was 41.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.23% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 128.31% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support increases, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride dropped slightly, from 1966.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1960.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.32%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 18.08%; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1212.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, upstream support has increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level. The downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

Price trend

The trend of domestic PA66 market was sideways in mid-February. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 21000 yuan/ton on February 20, with a decline of – 2.33% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In mid-February, the market of PA66 remained stagnant. In terms of supply, the current overall domestic load of PA66 industry has increased by a narrow margin, about 66%. The enterprise’s operation follows the trend of going to the warehouse in the early stage, and the inventory pressure is general, and the supply of goods on the site is relatively abundant. In the upstream, the overall operating rate of adipic acid as raw material has increased, and the expected increase in supply in the later period is negative for the market. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is also expected to increase, and the support of PA66 raw material end to the spot is weakened. The situation in demand is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods, and buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced goods. The smoothness of merchants’ delivery is average.

Aftermarket forecast

In mid-February, the spot price of PA66 was flat. The market of raw materials began to weaken, and the support for PA66 cost side weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side is weak in taking goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9550.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of Monday.

The epoxy propane market fell first and then rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene rose slightly, the liquid chlorine of raw material operated slightly, the cost support was strong, and the supply end devices fluctuated little. At the beginning of the week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high, the factory shipments were weak, some of the accumulated inventory, and the market wait-and-see weakened. With the centralized replenishment after the downstream terminal wait-and-see, the market price rose. On the 17th, the mainstream price of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was around 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and the market operated slightly.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen slightly recently. On February 16, the reference price of propylene was 7480.75, up 0.17% from February 13 (7468.25).

The epoxy propane analyst of the business agency believes that at present, there is some support for the cost, the factory shipment is smooth, and the demand side is mainly followed up. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will be stronger in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has fallen sharply recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1243.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1233.33 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The current price fell 2.89% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating. From the figure above, it can be seen that the recent market of formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has declined this week. As of February 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1280 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of raw material methanol has declined slightly, the demand of downstream plate factories has recovered slowly, and the formaldehyde inventory is high. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers have led the market to decline.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has declined slightly, with the mainstream ex-factory price of methanol in southern Shandong at 2600 yuan/ton, and some ex-factory prices around 2500 yuan/ton; The delivery price in Linyi is 2550 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of enterprises in central and eastern Shandong fell 80 yuan to 2470-2500 yuan/ton; The reference price of Dongying and surrounding areas is 2450 yuan/ton. With the end of the holiday, some coal mines began to resume work and production, and the output picked up slightly. The terminal power plants were in a weak purchasing mood under the support of long-term cooperative coal. The non-electric terminal raw coal was consumed during the holiday, and the demand for replenishment in the near future was released slightly. In the short term, the power coal price is mainly stable. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good.

Recently, the methanol market has been volatile and low, the cost support is not good, and the downstream is still just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde market is likely to follow the methanol fluctuation, so the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Association predicted that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is mainly volatile.

From February 3 to February 10, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price of 81500 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 85750 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.21%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, remained flat for seven consecutive weeks, the price began to decline continuously at the end of October, and slightly recovered after the end of December.

European strategic small metal antimony price this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ February 3/ February 10/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12700./12700./ -

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was temporarily stable, and the price was 12700 US dollars/ton by February 10. The market price was temporarily stable during the week, and the negotiation atmosphere was OK.

Antimony ingot prices continued to rise this week, with active market trading. On the supply side, it will take some time to resume work during the holiday. Therefore, the antimony ingot market is still in a tight supply situation. The suppliers have a strong reluctance to sell recently, and the quotations have also been continuously raised. Driven by the current market atmosphere, the demand side has active market transactions, active inquiries, and the expected improvement of export conditions. The actual transaction of the market has improved significantly. With the rising prices, at present, it is mainly the purchase on demand, while other transactions are slightly light. In the future, the price of antimony ingot will remain stable, medium and strong in the future under the expectation of tight supply and improved demand. However, with the fall of trading atmosphere, the rising space may be limited.

Antimony oxide price trend this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ February 3/ February 10/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./73000./75500./+2500

99.8% antimony trioxide./74500./77000./+2500

This week, the antimony oxide market rose broadly, and the market turnover was significantly improved. Under the tight supply of raw materials, the market procurement was more active than in the early stage. After the Lantern Festival, the market was basically completely resumed. At present, the construction was gradually resumed, and the overall market was relatively strong.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1191 points on February 12, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 96.21% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), with antimony (3.94%), nickel (2.96%) and lead (0.49%) among the top three commodities. A total of 17 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, and the first three products fell were Praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 4.35%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.46%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall of this week was -0.82%.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell mainly, and the domestic rare earth market declined. The rare earth index was 668 points on February 12, down 33.66% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 146.49% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium all fell in China. As of the 13th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 875000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% this week; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 715000 yuan/ton, down 4.35%; The price of neodymium oxide was 785000 yuan/ton, down 1.88%; The price of neodymium metal was 965000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.03%; The price of praseodymium metal was 915000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.14%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 705000 yuan/ton, down 1.40% this week.

The domestic light rare earth market inquiry list is cold and the demand is poor. The downstream magnetic material enterprises have sufficient stock before the festival. The downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory. The metal demand situation in the rare earth market has not improved. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. In addition, the transaction situation of rare earth oxide inquiry list is not optimistic. The prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is very cold, coupled with the gradual resumption of production enterprises, the supply of light rare earth market is increasing, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly declining.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.365 million yuan/ton as of the 13th, and the price fell by 3.27% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.355 million yuan/ton, down 3.29%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.145 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.02%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.7 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.4 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earths has declined. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in rare earths mining areas in Sichuan and other places has increased, the production of production enterprises has increased, the downstream procurement is scarce, and the market price has declined slightly. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price decline in the heavy rare earth market is limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis, down 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, and the market share reached 24.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for new energy has declined, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market has declined.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth are sustainable development. In the near future, the procurement of downstream businesses is cold, coupled with the increase of upstream supply, the dealers holding goods are unwilling to sell at low prices, and the transaction is very cold. In the short term, the price of the rare earth market is mainly declining. In the long term, the demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and the development of the rare earth industry is optimistic.

Price trend

In the first ten days of February, the domestic POM market was relatively active, and the overall price performance was stable first and then rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14200 yuan/ton, and the price level increased by+1.91% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been fluctuating recently. It can be seen from the figure below that the formaldehyde market is mainly subject to small fluctuations, and this week’s market has declined. As of February 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1200-1280 yuan/ton. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly and the formaldehyde inventory was high. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers led the market down.

Supply: In the first ten days of February, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to run at a high level, and the industry load reached more than 97%, almost full. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, the inventory position is low, and the processing profit has declined.

Demand: In terms of demand, there is an atmosphere of speculation in the market due to the tight supply in the near future. In addition to the promotion of the resumption of work and stock preparation of terminal enterprises after the holiday, the current demand is gradually released, which has a driving effect on the spot price.

The tight supply of goods in the POM market continues, and the manufacturer’s ex-factory price is rising steadily. Guided by this, the traders’ mentality is strongly supported.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of February, the POM market rose steadily. The domestic polymerization plant operates at almost full capacity, but the inventory pressure is small, the supply of goods on the site is more compact, and the ex-factory price of domestic materials is quite high. The demand side is gradually developing, and it is expected that the downstream enterprises will still have room to expand the scale of resumption of work, and some customers will have upward-seeking operations. It is expected that the POM market will continue to run strongly in the short term due to the support of the supply side.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of raw silk fluctuated at a high level this week. As of February 3, the average market price was 437975 yuan/ton, 0.12% higher than last week’s price (437450 yuan/ton), and 1.88% lower than the previous year; The dried cocoon market remained stable, with an average market price of 145000 yuan/ton, up 0.69% year on year.

This week, on the spot market, the overall price and trading volume of raw silk increased compared with the last trading week before the year. On high-quality raw silk, the trading performance of the first trading week of this week after the year was slightly better than that of the last trading week before the year. The transaction price of some units is higher than that of the year before, and the transaction price of some units is basically the same as that of the year before. On the whole, the price index of high-quality raw silk is higher than that of the year before. In terms of silk floss, since the end of the year, whether it is customer maintenance needs or just needs to get the goods, more or less deals have been made, and the price of some varieties is better than that before the year. As for dry cocoons, the expectation of the selling unit is higher than that of the year before due to the good start of the Spring Festival consumption and the increased cost of capital and other factors. However, the dry cocoon buyer does have a shortage of raw materials after the year, but the acceptance is limited, and the transaction is still difficult. In addition, the start of construction this week is gradually starting, and the dry cocoon continues to have no transaction data.

Downstream, although light textile markets in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong and other places have opened in succession, textile and fabric enterprises that have resumed production in advance after the festival have also opened the inquiry mode, and the whole industry chain is in good mood. However, due to the fact that weaving enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places are still in the state of resumption of production, and it is expected that the enterprises will resume work fully on the 15th of the first month, and the yarn procurement has not actually started (the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong). Although the stock of raw materials (yarn) is not high before the Spring Festival, we still hope to replenish the stock after the production is completely restored, and it still depends on the terminal orders. It is expected that downstream enterprises will resume work fully after the Lantern Festival, and the market will gradually enter the key stage of verifying demand.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the stock of grey fabric enterprises is high before the year. Although the demand for raw materials will be expected to be good as the downstream production resumes, due to the slow recovery of the start of construction and the limited effect of the boost, it is expected that the short-term dry cocoon and raw silk market will be mainly subject to shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the downstream demand in the future.

Last week (January 30-February 5, 2023), the market price of nylon filament rose continuously after the holiday. After the festival, the cost of caprolactam, the raw material, was supported favorably, the spot price was tight, and the upstream and downstream demand was steadily followed up. The market of nylon chips and nylon filament is driven by cost. After the festival, the construction of nylon filament was relatively low, but the supply in the field was sufficient, the inventory was high, and the market was mainly dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the textile market is difficult to hide the weak situation. Weaving manufacturers are generally motivated to stock raw materials, and the atmosphere of rising is not high. Most downstream weaving factories maintain low load production.

Market price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price of nylon filament rose continuously last week (January 30 to February 5, 2023). As of February 5, 2023, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium products; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu was 18160 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton higher than that of last week, with a weekly increase of 2.95%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 15850 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, up 1.93% per week; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) was 18925 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week, up 2.71%.

Upstream raw material market

Raw material caprolactam: Last week (January 30 – February 5, 2023), the cost of raw material caprolactam was supported favorably, the spot price was tight, and the demand of upstream and downstream was steadily followed up, so the spot price rose continuously. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on February 5 was 12833 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week, up 4.05% per week. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain strong in the short term.

Supply and demand

After the Spring Festival, nylon filament enterprises started cautiously, and the overall production and supply of the market was sufficient, with the main force digesting the inventory. The operating rate of the downstream weaving industry has not completely recovered, and the market transaction is in the slow start stage. The grey fabric inventory in the factory has not changed much compared with that before the festival, and is still under high pressure. The enthusiasm of raw material stocking is not high, and the terminal demand is weak. Most weaving factories are at the lowest load production.

Aftermarket forecast

In the later stage, the cost support of nylon filament market is strong. With the increase of textile construction, the end demand is expected to improve, boosting market confidence to a certain extent. With the demand for replenishment of downstream enterprises after the festival, the analysts of the business association predict that there is still a narrow upward space for the market of nylon filament in the short term, so it is necessary to pay attention to the price change of raw materials.

This week (1.30-2.6), the butadiene rubber market rose first, then fell, and rose overall. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 6, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11660 yuan/ton, up 1.48% from 11490 yuan/ton last Monday, and the highest point in the cycle was 11800 yuan/ton. After the festival, downstream inquiries increased a little, and the price of raw butadiene was high and strong, so cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber enterprises were willing to increase the price. Within the week, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber suppliers increased the ex-factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton. Buying sentiment weakened after the market price rose, and the offer of merchants fell slightly in the middle of the week. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was reported at 11500 yuan/ton. As of the 6th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 10550~11800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11300~11400 yuan/ton.

This week (1.30-2.6), the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9432 yuan/ton as of February 6, up 4.57% from 9020 yuan/ton on January 30.

The natural rubber market fell sharply this week (1.30-2.6), which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 12104 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 4.77% from 12710 yuan/ton last Friday.

Enquiries from some downstream product enterprises increased after the festival, which had a small support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; However, the commencement of tire enterprises is still at a low level, and the demand for polybutadiene rubber is weak; The negotiation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber mainly focuses on small orders.

Future forecast: The analysts of the Business Agency believe that at present, the pressure on the supply side of polybutadiene rubber is still there, but the cost side is up. In addition, the start of downstream tires after the Lantern Festival may increase. It is expected that the polybutadiene rubber market will continue to rise slightly with the start of the downstream.

The price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly in January. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on January 31 was 7642 yuan/ton, up 4.66% from the price of 7302 at the beginning of the month, up 1.64% year on year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7470 (settlement price 7488), up 3.29% from the beginning of the month.

In January, the international crude oil price rose first and then fell, with a slight decline in the whole month. On January 31, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at around $79/barrel. The supply of crude oil in the United States has declined this month, the economy in Asia has recovered, the import volume of crude oil in China has increased significantly, and the recovery of demand has supported the international oil price. However, the high level of inflation in the western developed economies has hurt the global economy and undermined the international oil market.

In January, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. As of January 31, the average market price was 5748 yuan/ton, up 2.35% from the beginning of the month and 5.96% year on year. This month, PTA plant maintenance devices were restarted frequently, and the load was significantly increased. Among them, 2.4 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical, 3.3 million tons of Yisheng New Materials and 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo have been restarted successively and are now in normal operation. In terms of new capacity, Jiatong Energy 1 # 2.5 million tons of units, of which 1.25 million tons of units will produce high-quality products at the end of January 2022, and the other 1.25 million tons of units will produce high-quality products at the beginning of January. Another 1.25 million ton new unit of Shandong Weilian Chemical has not been officially commissioned.

The price of ethylene glycol recovered in January. On the one hand, it was driven by the oil price and its own low valuation. On the other hand, it was due to the reduction and conversion of large units, which boosted market confidence. The spot price rose by about 8% in the whole month. However, the supply and demand structure of glycol fundamentals in the medium and long term is still weak, and it is expected that the probability of future platform shocks will increase.

In January, the start-up rate of the yarn mill and weaving mill fell to the freezing point due to the Spring Festival holiday. At present, most enterprises are still in the shutdown stage, and the production recovery is later than the upstream. It is expected to resume the start-up in the first ten days of February. In addition, due to the high stock level of raw materials in some factories before the holiday, and the overall weakness of new orders after the holiday, the order reception situation is not ideal, and the recovery of demand side is not obvious.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the current international crude oil market is highly volatile, and the cost support of staple fiber still exists. The downstream terminal market will gradually resume work after the festival, and there will be a wave of replenishment demand for staple fiber. It is expected that the price of staple fiber will fluctuate slightly with the cost in February. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and the resumption of industrial chain.

From January 1 to January 30, 2023, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was reduced in a narrow range. The spot market price in East China was 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 0.29%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that the electrolytic manganese market has stopped falling and recovered since August. Although the increase in August and September was less than 1%, the increase in October was 3.59%, and the electrolytic manganese market began to recover. From the weekly bar chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a temporary stable operation for most of the time, and entered a narrow price decline in December.

In terms of manganese ore: the growth of the manganese ore market slowed down, and the enthusiasm of the production side to take the goods decreased. The market transactions were dominated by traders. With the continuous rise of the northern oxide ore, Gabon’s uncertainty fermentation, the closing situation intensified, and the increase in the offer was relatively obvious. The southern delivery channel was relatively stable, and the stock was basically completed before the year. Although the mentality was also with the rising mood, the manufacturers basically entered the holiday cycle, and the circulation situation was poor. The oxidized ore in Tianjin Port rose by 1 yuan/ton, Australia’s 48 yuan/ton, Gabon’s 45.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi-carbonic acid 36.5-37 yuan/ton. The price of South Africa’s high-speed railway rose to 34-35 yuan/ton due to the low inventory in the near future; The price of Qinzhou Port – Macao Block is 47-47.5 yuan/tonne, the price of Gabon Block is around 45 yuan/tonne, the price of semi-carbonic acid in South Africa is 39.5-40 yuan/tonne, and the South African high-speed railway will rise to 33.5 yuan/tonne.

After entering December, the electrolytic manganese market fluctuated and declined, with a slight decrease of about 100 yuan/ton per week. At the beginning of January, the trend of December continued, and the price declined in a narrow range. The domestic mainstream price is 15400-15600 yuan/ton, and the overall holiday atmosphere of the market is relatively strong in January due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, and the trading volume is slightly cold. In terms of supply, the current operating rate has not changed much. The ex-factory price of domestic mainstream manufacturers is around 15400-15600 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price. In terms of downstream demand, the holiday is approaching, and the winter storage in the downstream is basically coming to an end. The market mentality is generally stable. In terms of steel recruitment, the performance is average, and the price falls, affecting the market mentality. In general, the current electrolytic manganese market has maintained a weak operation as a whole. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected to maintain a stable, medium and weak operation in the short term. The market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

The domestic spot market of silicon and manganese remained stable as a whole, and the merchants’ price sentiment continued, and the transaction was relatively cold. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (the specification is FeMN68Si18) was around 7150-7250 yuan/ton on January 13. The power rationing in some southern regions has eased slightly. It is said that a new round of power rationing may start again. The enthusiasm of manufacturers to resume production is low. The overall stock of manufacturers is tight, and orders are basically full in January. This week (01.12): the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) is 59.65% nationwide, 0.82% lower than last week; The average daily output is 28519 tons, minus 37 tons.

Relevant data:

Customs data showed that the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder in December 2022 was about 5003.818 tons, down about 16.6% month on month and up 47.85% year on year. In December 2022, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder was about 24929.7 tons, down about 2.28% month-on-month and 28.56% at the same time.