This week (11.11-11.18), the acrylonitrile market rose and fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11340 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from 11390 yuan/ton last Friday; 2.16% lower than the weekly high of 11590 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s listing price was raised, and the merchant’s offer rose. In the middle of the month, some manufacturers’ listing prices were lowered, and the market’s offer fell slightly. At present, the self lifting price of acrylonitrile is 10900~11600 yuan/ton.

This week (11.11-11.18), the pressure on the domestic acrylonitrile supply side was still high. Although the 260000 t/a Kolur equipment will be stopped for maintenance since the 10th of this month; However, the 450000 t/a unit of Jilin Petrochemical was upgraded to 70% load operation; The load of 780000 t/a acrylonitrile unit in Sierbang was increased to more than 80%; In addition, recent production of acrylonitrile devices such as Tianchen Qixiang and Liaoning Jinfa has increased the overall supply of acrylonitrile industry.

This week (11.11-11.18), the raw propylene market declined slightly, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the domestic propylene price was 7230 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from 7330 yuan/ton last Friday. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream appeared to wait and see, and the demand was restrained. In order to stabilize the flow of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave back the increase. The overall supply and demand of propylene market is stable, with downstream demand as the main demand. However, this year, there are many new capacity, relatively loose supply, and great resistance to price rise. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil on Friday, the market mentality was depressed, and the downstream receiving was slightly cautious.

Recently, the inventory of ABS petrochemical manufacturers downstream of acrylonitrile has accumulated slightly, the high level of industry commencement has declined slightly, and the support for acrylonitrile has weakened slightly; The inventory of the textile industry has accumulated, the demand for acrylic fiber has weakened, some manufacturers’ acrylic fiber devices have been running at a lower load, and their support for acrylonitrile has weakened.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost of acrylonitrile has dropped slightly at present, the commencement of downstream ABS and acrylic fiber industries has declined slightly, and the supply side pressure has rebounded. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 11 was 8300.00 yuan/ton, up 0.40% compared with the price on Monday and 0.81% compared with the price on October 11.

This week, the quotation of enterprises in the melamine market was mainly stable, and the price of some enterprises was adjusted. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw material urea has risen recently, and the cost has risen against the support of melamine. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of the melamine market is relatively high. Domestic downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, local transportation is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of upstream urea was 2584.00 on November 10, an increase of 3.11% compared with November 1 (2506.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the current cost support is strong, the supply side operation rate is high, the demand side performance is average, and the market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

After the accelerated decline at the beginning of the month, the butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (11.4-11.11). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 11400 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from 11330 yuan/ton last Friday. The ex factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber for two barrels of oil was temporarily stable this week. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the ex factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11200 yuan/ton. Although the downstream commencement continued to decline, with the price of Shunding reaching a new low, the downstream inquiries increased, and the business offer was slightly adjusted. As of November 11, the market offer of Shunding Rubber was 11200~11750 yuan/ton, while the private Shunding mainstream offer was 10700~11300 yuan/ton.

In the near future, Haopu 60000 t/a and Lande 30000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants will be shut down for maintenance. However, in the later stage, the production pressure of new units such as Zhejiang Petrochemical is still large, and the supply of cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to be loose.

This week (11.4-11.11), the raw butadiene market fell sharply, dragging down the butadiene rubber market. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of butadiene was 6603 yuan/ton, down 7.60% from 7145 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (11.4-11.11), which has weak support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of natural rubber was 11800 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from 11610 yuan/ton last Friday.

The demand side is still weak. The commencement of downstream tire enterprises in November continued to decline, and the demand side is not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is less than 60%, and that of full steel tires is around 50%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business association, the supply pressure of cis polybutadiene rubber is still present, the cost is down, and the demand is light. It is expected that cis polybutadiene rubber will fall again in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, since November, the domestic PTA spot market has experienced strong fluctuations. As of November 14, the average price in the East China market was 5809 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the beginning of the month and 16.71% year on year. It is mainly driven by the contraction of the supply side and the upward shift of the cost side. Specifically:

In terms of PTA supply, recently, with the reduction of 80% to 90% in some plants in South China and the maintenance of 350000 tons of small chemical fiber lines in Yizheng, the operating rate of PTA devices has continued to shrink, and the current operating rate of the industry has fallen back to around 75%. The overall market supply shows a tightening trend, with less cash in circulation and less readily available cash sold by traders.

The crude oil price showed high volatility. In November, OPEC+started to reduce production, and the crude oil supply is expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day. In addition, the demand for refined oil is still good, and the short-term demand for crude oil is strong in the fourth quarter when refinery operation remains high. As of November 11, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.96 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.99 dollars/barrel.

However, the demand side is still the key factor restricting the PTA price. Downstream polyester enterprises have accelerated production reduction. At the same time, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing have rapidly shrunk. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to below 60%. Some factories have holidays in advance. Downstream costs are weak to keep up. Terminal orders are scarce, and the market is generally pessimistic.

Analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand structure of crude oil is still biased, the oil price oscillation is strong, the supply of PX is still tight, and the cost support function appears. However, PTA unit maintenance will restart and new production capacity is expected to be put into production, so supply may increase. At the same time, I heard that some end weaving enterprises have prepared to start their annual leave in advance. The terminal demand is weak, and the weak supply and demand of PTA is a drag on their prices. Therefore, PTA will focus on weak shock adjustment in the short term. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the production progress of new units.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 14 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the first half of November was mainly stable, with the main report of 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15471.43 yuan/ton on the 14th of the month, and a slight increase of 0.28% in the half month. Last month, following the policy of stopping production and resuming production, the manufacturer started work normally with sufficient inventory; Earlier this month, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, said that the impact of public health events continued, with limited transportation, slow delivery of goods and reduced orders; Although the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to rise, the acrylic acid is stable and weak, the downstream demand is general, and the polyacrylamide market is stable and fluctuates slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market in the first half of November continued to rise continuously since the beginning of September, and the high level was firm. On November 14, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11370 yuan/ton, 3.65% higher than the price of 10970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the commencement of acrylonitrile unit is lower, on the other hand, the raw propylene market is significantly higher and the cost is rising, and the downstream commencement continues to maintain a high level, forming a rigid demand support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the first half of November was stable and fell, and the transaction atmosphere in the downstream procurement market was light and stable. On November 14, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, 2.03% lower than the price of 8200 yuan/ton on November 1, 0.82% lower than the same period last year, and 54.27% lower than the same period last year. According to the analysis, at present, the pressure on the cost side is increasing, and the downstream is mainly following up on demand, with little change in the supply and demand side. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly reorganized and operated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of business cooperatives, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 13.54% in the first half of this month: the market price of LNG was about 4712 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 5450 yuan/ton on the first day. Recently, due to the downturn in terminal demand, the market for liquefied natural gas continued to run weak due to the oversupply in the market. The industry held a wait-and-see attitude, with gains and losses in various regions of China. Although the cost has some support, the demand side has not improved, and the LNG market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: The economic downturn, the multiple impacts of public health events, and the continued weak demand will lead to a weaker market this year than the same period in previous years. With few orders and sufficient inventory, the surge of raw material acrylonitrile did not drive the rise of polyacrylamide. Judging from the current situation, the heating season is coming, and the future market will remain stable and weak.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3883.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3733.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 3.86%. A year-on-year drop of 17.04%. On November 10, the carbide commodity index was 97.82, unchanged from yesterday, 53.91% lower than the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and 76.28% higher than the minimum of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost is generally supported, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market was adjusted at a low level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1720-1810 yuan/ton this weekend, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week rose from 5992.86 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6057.14 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.07%. A year-on-year decrease of 45.45%. The PVC market price rose slightly, downstream customers became more active in calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

Calcium carbide may rise in the market after shocks

In the middle and late November, calcium carbide market rose mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue charcoal was consolidated at a low level. The cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. The downstream PVC market rose in a narrow range, and the downstream demand increased. In the middle and late November, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole experienced a narrow range of shocks, while the Henan market was strong and pushed up slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4580 yuan/ton on October 31 and 4590 yuan/ton on November 4, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, 4.02% higher than the same period last year.

As of November 4, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4570 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4250-4620 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole was mainly weak, with Henan market rising slightly and Hebei and Jiangxi markets temporarily stable. The price of raw material methanol remains weak, and the cost support is average. There is no obvious improvement in downstream demand, transportation in some areas is not smooth, shipment is blocked, and the factory gives way to profits. The supply in Henan is relatively low, and the factory is willing to support the price. The price has increased by 20 yuan/ton this week.

In general, the support of methanol for dimethyl ether is limited. The downstream just needs to supplement the reservoir mainly on the low side. With the cold weather in the future, the demand may gradually increase. It is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP wire drawing material was 7925 yuan/ton on October 30 and 7975 yuan/ton on November 7, with a weekly increase or decrease of+0.63%, which was -2.25% higher than the price on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP fiber material was 8033.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and the average price was 8100 yuan/ton on November 7. The weekly increase or decrease was+0.83%, which was -1.22% higher than the price on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP melt blown material was 9016.67 yuan/ton on October 30, and the average price was 9050 yuan/ton on November 7. The weekly increase and decrease range was+0.37%, which was -0.55% higher than the price on October 1.

Cause analysis

Last week, the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase was solid, and the negative mentality brought by the global high inflation macroeconomic continued to affect the market. In addition, domestic health events rebounded in the week, and the risk area increased to about 4700, which affected the shipping and receiving of some enterprises. At the same time, the typhoon weather in South China at the weekend affected the port suitcase business, and multiple pressures led to greater resistance to the rise of the PP spot market.

In terms of raw materials: after the fall of crude oil in early November, there was a lot of news about the expected tightening of supply. The price rebounded in the second half of the week, and the cost side of oil to polypropylene supported the recovery. Propane was boosted by the higher external market price, while methanol price was firm, and the support for PDH and FMTP was strong and even. In general, the support of polypropylene raw material end is acceptable.

In terms of supply: Last week, the total domestic PP output declined steadily, with a total of about 600000 tons of PP produced in the week. Compared with last week, the capacity loss increased by more than 3000 tons. Due to the pressure of on-site shipment, the enterprise load is cautious and stable, and some enterprises reduce the load or conduct maintenance. The supply of goods decreased during the week, and the pressure on spot prices from suppliers decreased by a narrow margin.

Demand: last week, PP operated in a narrow range of shocks, falling first and then rising in the week. The spot shipment is affected by typhoon weather, health events and other aspects. The market delivery is smooth, and the terminal factory needs to follow up on the whole, which is slightly lagging behind. The main force of wire drawing materials downstream plastic knitting and BOPP order preparation enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory level runs horizontally.

The price of non-woven fabrics downstream of fiber material and melt blown PP is flat, the digestion speed of terminal products is stable, the profit of the enterprise is average, and the price is bottomed by cost and demand. At present, the situation of international health events in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown cloth materials. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. There is abundant supply of melt blown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. The market competition is strong.

Future market forecast

Last week, with some funds leaving the market, the short-term profit margin of PP market was exhausted, and the market returned to the fundamental market of supply and demand game. The industry load decreased by a narrow margin, and the inventory decreased. The terminal just needs goods, but the follow-up order is slightly insufficient. Although petrochemical plants are willing to raise prices, the confidence of manufacturers and traders is not strong, and the market is generally empty due to macroeconomic impact. At present, the core guidance is still the far upstream international oil price. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, focusing on consolidation and operation.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3950 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3883.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.69%, 33.43% YoY. On November 6, the carbide commodity index was 101.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.06% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 83.37% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost is generally supported, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fell slightly, while that of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1720-1810 yuan/ton this weekend, with a slight decline. The PVC market price this week dropped from 6021.43 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5992.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.47%, 36.72% YoY. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream market fell in shock, while carbide market fell in shock

In the middle and late November, the market of calcium carbide fell mainly due to narrow shocks. The price of raw material blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the PVC market in the downstream fell in a narrow range, with general downstream demand. The price of calcium carbide in northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid to late November.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose slightly this week. As of November 4, spot nickel was quoted at 195500 yuan/ton, up 4.99% from the beginning of the week and 35.47% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still in a wide range of shocks.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 51432 tons, 156 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 360 tons, a decrease of 0.7%.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 75bp as scheduled. Powell suggested that the pace of interest rate increase might slow down, but the high point of interest rate would be higher, and the interest rate would stay at the high level for a longer time, which was slightly hawkish and weakened risk appetite. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, the largest rate in 33 years, emphasizing that the peak interest rate will be lower than the market expectation; In October, the ISM non manufacturing industry in the United States hit a new low since May 2020, which coincided with the downturn of the manufacturing industry.

In terms of supply, the rainy season has arrived in the Philippines, and the supply of nickel ore at the mine end has entered a tightening stage, with firm prices. With the support of the ore end cost, the price of the ferronickel plant is firm, and the price center continues to move upward in the near future. The Indonesian government plans to release the nickel export tax policy in the third quarter of this year, but it has not yet implemented it. However, the news surfaced again last week. It is understood that the collection of NPI and ferronickel tax is a matter of time. If the export tax is implemented, Chinese stainless steel plants will have to spend more money on raw materials. If a 10% export tax is levied on the current NPI price, the cost of 304 stainless steel made in China will increase by 152 dollars per ton.

In terms of demand, the downstream acceptance of pure nickel is limited under the continuous high nickel price. Traders continue to reduce the spot premium, but the deal is average. The output of stainless steel in the downstream is increasing, and the demand for new energy is still strong, and the supply and demand in nickel market is relatively strong.

To sum up, the nickel industry chain is running strongly on the whole, the stainless steel industry’s output has increased demand for nickel, and the raw material supply side has disturbed the cost support. However, the domestic manufacturing industry’s PMI data is weak, the pace of repair has been disturbed by the epidemic, and the stainless steel import data has weakened. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, after the festival, pure benzene rose and fell continuously. On October 1, the price was 7850-8200 yuan/ton (the average price was 7926 yuan/ton); On October 28, the price was 7450-7530 yuan/ton (average price was 7472 yuan/ton), down 5.72% this month and 2.07% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia has risen, which is good for boosting the domestic pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has risen. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded.

In this month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised twice and lowered four times, down 400 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton in Hebei and Shandong).

In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.

On the foreign side, the overall trend of pure benzene in Asia in the external market this month was first up and then down, which was boosted by the rise of crude oil in the early stage. On October 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $843/ton, a month on month drop of US $29/ton, or 3.33%; East China imported pure benzene at 870 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars/ton month on month, or 4.4%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As China is at the high price of pure benzene, the import volume of pure benzene will remain high in the future. Domestically, there are many downstream overhaul devices for pure benzene at present, and the demand remains just in demand. It is estimated that the demand may improve in November. In the later period, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical Plant will be put into production, and the supply of pure benzene will increase. On the whole, the short-term market demand is insufficient, and the trend of pure benzene continues to be weak. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PA66 market price rose in October, and the spot price of each brand may be stable or rising. As of October 31, the ex factory price offered by the glue injection molding sample enterprises in the business agency PA66 was about 25250 yuan/ton on average, up and down by+2.02% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid market in the first half of this month continued to benefit the supply side, and prices rose rapidly. In the second half of the month, the decline of pure benzene brought negative cost and weak demand, which reversed the correction. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is still tight, and merchants are reluctant to sell. The market is firm, and the mentality of enterprises and merchants is stable.

The upstream raw material market is generally strong, and the cost side of PA66 is strongly supported. In terms of industry operating rate, recently, PA66 enterprises have been affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry load has been limited, and the market spot supply is tight, but the inventory has increased in the second half of the month. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises prefer to maintain production just because they need to follow up with goods. The traditional peak season “Silver Ten” volume is less than expected. Downstream people are resistant to high price goods, and the factory demand release is less than that of previous years. The shipping speed of merchants slowed down, the transactions on the floor were average, and the market was in a stalemate.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot price of PA66 in October has risen steadily. The raw material side market remained strong, and the cost side support of PA66 was fair. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the pressure on the supply side is still small, and the demand side is slow to get goods. It is expected that PA66 will weaken in the short term due to the lagging consumption follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash in this month is temporarily stable. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was about 2670 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2660 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, 25.59% compared with the same period last year. On October 27, the commodity index of light soda ash was 136.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.86% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 116.01% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash in this month has been consolidated. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2850 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Some data show that the inventory of soda ash this week is about 310000 tons, and the overall operating rate of the industry is about 89%.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall price of glass in this month was consolidated. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.72 yuan/square meter, and the average price at the end of the month was 19.73 yuan/square meter, with a slight increase of 0.05%. On the whole, the spot price of glass market in October rose in the first ten days of October, and fell in the second ten days of October. The market trading and investment situation in North China Shahe region is general, the market price is relatively flexible, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to replenish goods is general. Later, they will wait and see more, and the overall manufacturer’s inventory has decreased. In East China, the market trading situation is general, the market price is more flexible, and the inventory is reduced slightly. The overall production and sales in central China are not good. The prices of manufacturers have been reduced sporadically. Downstream and traders have replenished goods as needed, and the inventory has increased. The spot delivery of glass in South China is general, and downstream enterprises replenish as needed, with production and sales basically balanced. The production and marketing in the southwest are basically balanced, and the downstream is more wait-and-see. The glass market in northwest China is average, and the inventory has increased. The market trend in Northeast China is general, and the procurement is mainly on demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21), there were 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodity, and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.88%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-2.37%) and PVC (-0.69%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.23%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the domestic soda ash price is generally stable and slightly dynamic, but the overall trading atmosphere is relatively general. The downstream of soda ash is still mainly purchased on demand. Near the end of the month, the market will mainly operate stably, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in October, from 5933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.24%.

On October 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 35.36, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 17.40% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, the overall isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in October, with a maximum weekly increase of 10.11%.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in October

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose slightly in October, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde declined slightly in October. The price of propylene fell from 7620.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7136.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.35%. A year-on-year decrease of 10.24%. The weakening of upstream cost support has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde price.

Downstream neopentyl glycol market fluctuated in a narrow range in October. The price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated around 10066.67 yuan/ton. The downstream market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first half of November, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Upstream propylene prices fell slightly, and cost support weakened. However, there is a downward trend in the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream. Downstream factories are less active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this month. The price of hydrochloric acid rose from 166.67 yuan/ton on October 1 to 186.67 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 12.00%. The price at the end of the month fell 58.88% year-on-year.

On October 27, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 47.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.65% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 163.46% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support improved and downstream procurement weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, giving hydrochloric acid some support. The downstream ammonium chloride market declined slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride fell from 1012.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.21% and a year-on-year decline of 15.15%. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 2043.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2011.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.59%, and a year-on-year drop of 23.30% compared with the same period last year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the middle and first ten days of November, the market of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market is average, and the cost support is average. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The analysts of the business association believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

In October, the domestic propane market trend was relatively strong, and Shandong propane market rose first and then declined, with an overall increase. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5578.25 yuan/ton on October 1 and 5645.75 yuan/ton on October 26, with a monthly increase of 1.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%.

As of October 26, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., October 26

In South China, 5450-5550 yuan/ton

North China, 5750-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5730 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-5850 yuan/ton

In October, the trend of domestic propane market was relatively firm, and the ex factory price of Shandong propane market rose first and then fell. After the National Day holiday, the domestic propane market was driven by the rise of international crude oil during the holiday, ushering in a wave of growth. In addition, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the holiday. The enthusiasm for entering the market was good, the manufacturers had a firm attitude, and the price increased widely. Subsequently, with the decline of international crude oil, the market mentality was affected. The downstream was cautious, and the delisting consumed inventory. The market trading atmosphere was weaker than in the early stage, and the propane market price fell back. However, in October as a whole, Shandong’s propane market rose more than its decline.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 590 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars/ton from last month; Butane was 560 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars/ton from last month.

On the 27th, near the end of the month, supported by the cost side, the international crude oil rose by 3% on a single day, bringing obvious benefits to the market, and the Shandong propane market stopped falling and rising. In addition, November is coming. With the cooling weather and the arrival of the fuel market peak season, the terminal demand is expected to continue to grow. It is expected that the propane market price will be firm in November, or shake the host.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in October 2022, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to show an upward trend, and the prices continued to rise. On October 26, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 551000 yuan/ton, which was 9.94% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average domestic mixed price of industrial carbon on October 1 was 501200 yuan/ton). On October 26, the domestic mixed average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 573000 yuan/ton, which was 10.7% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the domestic mixed average price of carbon was 517600 yuan/ton).

Market supply

By observing market changes, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise after the National Day holiday. During the holiday, the factory production was normal, and the lithium carbonate shipment was relatively stable. However, the lithium carbonate output of large factories was dominated by long delivery orders, and there were relatively few lithium carbonate orders in the market. In late October, lithium carbonate enterprises were basically in a normal state of operation, but the tight market supply situation has not been eased. However, due to the impact of epidemic control in some regions, logistics and transportation problems have greatly affected the shipment of lithium carbonate, leading to the rising price of lithium carbonate.

The most striking thing about upstream raw materials is that the auction price is known as the “lithium price vane” “Pilbara spodumene concentrate was auctioned. On October 24, Pilbara Minerals conducted a new round of lithium concentrate auction, and the bidding price was about 7255 US dollars/ton, up by 155 US dollars/ton, or 2.2%, compared with the transaction price of Pilbara on October 18, 2022. The amount of ore in this auction was 5000 tons, and the concentrate grade was 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE was about 550000 yuan/ton. It is expected that this batch of ore will be delivered in the middle of November. Considering the logistics cycle It will enter the market in January to February.

Demand side

With the end of the holiday, the downstream inventory consumption and normal purchase demand remained unchanged, while the operating rate of the terminal market increased and the market purchase demand continued to increase. With the continuation of the “golden nine and silver ten”, new energy vehicles entered the traditional sales peak season, and the production of energy vehicles continued to increase, so the demand for battery raw materials rose, and the price rose again and again. In September 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a rapid growth, reaching 755000 vehicles and 708000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month growth of 9.3% and 6.2%.

Later this year, the new energy subsidy will completely decline, and some car enterprises will enter the demand for stock in advance, and the demand for energy batteries will increase, so the lithium battery manufacturers’ demand for raw materials will also increase significantly. Downstream production increase has driven the price increase in sentiment. The purchasing sentiment has not decreased, and the transaction price continues to rise.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream market rose. Due to the high price of spodumene in the upstream, the cost support is still strong. The lithium hydroxide market is strongly supported by the high price of lithium carbonate. However, domestic orders for lithium hydroxide exports remain hot, domestic market spot resources are limited, downstream high nickel ternary demand is steadily rising, procurement enthusiasm is high, and enterprise quotations in the lithium hydroxide market continue to rise.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate rose first and then stabilized. The rise in the price of phosphorus and iron sources before the holiday supported the price of iron phosphate. The price of lithium salt continued to rise due to the tight supply of downstream goods. The raw materials drove the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to rise, driving the price up. Subsequently, the price of lithium iron phosphate was temporarily stable, and the tight balance was maintained under the continuous increase of lithium iron phosphate.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business community, the spot price quotation of the lithium carbonate market is still showing an upward trend. With the arrival of winter in the fourth quarter, Qinghai and other regions will be affected by low temperature, and the output may decline slightly. However, the downstream year-end stock mentality continues, and the market demand will remain high. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high and volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, this week the Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the quotation was basically stable. The average price of yellow phosphorus is 37250 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the actual market transaction price declined. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm of the downstream to get goods is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall phosphate rock market was stable and consolidated this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on October 15. During the special period, the logistics was limited, some mining enterprises stopped production, and the information on the site was relatively quiet. Although the downstream phosphate fertilizer market continues to be weak and the demand side is generally supported, the overall offer of phosphate rock mining enterprises is mainly stable due to the tight supply.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke will be temporarily stable from October 14 to 21, 2022, and the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi will be 2600 yuan/ton as of October 21, 2022, unchanged. In the future market, the business community thinks that the environmental protection and production restriction are relatively strong in the near future, the coke enterprises have limited production, and the coke supply is generally tight. However, the overall profit of the downstream has declined in the near future, the steel price has declined, and the profits of the steel plant have been damaged. Therefore, the game mentality of coke and steel is strong in the near future, and the coke price is mainly stable in the short term.

For phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid decreased this week. On October 14, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10530 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the average price was 10390 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.33% within the week. The phosphoric acid market is average in various regions. The price of phosphoric acid is loose, and the downstream is worried that the price will continue to decline in the future. Therefore, the market is more wait-and-see, mainly just in need. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believes that the current yellow phosphorus market is weak, and the actual transaction price of the market has declined. On the whole, the upstream phosphate rock price is temporarily stabilized, and the downstream phosphate market price is lowered. The yellow phosphorus market is not good, and the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be weak in the short term.

The market of polybutadiene rubber continued to fall this week (10.17-10.24). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 12240 yuan/ton, down 4.38% from 12800 yuan/ton last Monday. On October 19, the factory price of two barrels of oil of butadiene rubber was lowered by 300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the factory price of butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was reported at 12000 yuan/ton. As of the 24th day, the price of cis-12400 yuan/ton in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market and 11500-11900 yuan/ton in the mainstream of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market were offered by businesses with weak cost demand and preferential shipping.

The pressure on the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber has eased slightly since October. In late October, the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber was relatively tight, supporting cis polybutadiene rubber.

This week (10.17-10.24), the raw butadiene market declined slightly, and the support for the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of butadiene was 7608 yuan/ton, down 1.95% from 7775 yuan/ton last Monday.

This week (10.17-10.24), the natural rubber market declined slightly, and the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of natural rubber was 11720 yuan/ton, down 3.38% from 12130 yuan/ton last Monday.

The demand side is weak. The downstream tire enterprises started to decline in October, and the demand side is not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In order to reduce risks, merchants often follow the sales and purchase.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the butadiene rubber production chain has eased slightly at present, but the cost has declined, and the demand is light. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of October 21, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10500.00 yuan/ton, 3.08% lower than the price on Monday, 6.80% lower than the price on September 21, and 13.46% lower than the price on a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market fell this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, some devices in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang at the supply end are in shutdown state, but the demand side performance is poor. The downstream procurement intention is not high, and more wait-and-see. Only small orders just need replenishment. The delivery of the goods is not smooth, and the market supply is sufficient.

In terms of upstream and downstream: raw propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline in a narrow range this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7426 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%, up 0.05% from 30 days ago. The cost support of the propylene method was insufficient. The raw material glycerin is weak, but the cost pressure still exists. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 19100.00 on October 20, a decrease of 6.98% compared with October 1 (20533.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is insufficient, the downstream buying is cautious, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the shipment of the cargo holders is under pressure. It is estimated that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On October 16, the average price of Shandong market was 4039.00 yuan/ton, 1.52% lower than the price of 4101.50 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15, unchanged from yesterday, 23.13% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 369.65% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery’s petroleum coke shipments were average, the downstream demand was limited, and the price of petroleum coke fell.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose slightly this week; The price of metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of October 16, the price was 18726.67 yuan/ton; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking.

The oil coke analyst of the business agency believes that: this week, the international crude oil shocks and declines, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking. The refinery shipments are under pressure. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 166.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 160.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a 4.00% drop. A year-on-year drop of 50.31%. On October 16, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 69.46% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 134.20% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 2027.50 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.49%, 5.92% YoY compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 990.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late October, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The recent low level of upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient. The low level of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sulfur price in East China rose first and then fell this week. On October 14, the average sulfur price was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.65% compared with 1550.00 yuan/ton on October 8, and up 36.44% month on month.

This week, the sulfur market was put into operation. After the festival, the port arrival volume of sulfur was low, the supply of goods was tight, and the cargo holders were reluctant to sell. The market had a strong interest in price fixing. The domestic refineries had a good demand, and the enterprise shipments were smooth. The sulfur market continued to go up, and the price rose. Later, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was weakened, and the enterprise shipments were not good. Some refineries lowered their prices slightly according to their own shipments. As of the 14th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was about 1500-1700 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1400-1650 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to rise, and the price continued to rise this week. As of October 14, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 406 yuan/ton, up 17.34% compared with 346 yuan/ton on October 8. In some regions of China, the pressure on the supply of goods has weakened due to the maintenance of plant equipment, and the market has increased. In addition, the price of raw materials has risen, which has provided good cost support, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen along the trend.

The market of monoammonium phosphate was weak and declined sharply. On October 14, the average price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in Sichuan was 2900 yuan/ton. On October 8, the average price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in Sichuan was 3150 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 7.94%. The downstream autumn fertilizer consumption is nearing the end, the demand is weak, the market support is weak, and the enterprise’s quotation is lowered according to its own shipment situation.

Future market forecast

The sulfur analysts of the business community believe that the domestic sulfur market is mainly reorganized. Although the port market is strong and the attitude of supporting the market is obvious, with the increase of port arrivals, the positive support is limited. The domestic sulfur market is wait-and-see, and the enterprise’s quotation is adjusted according to the status of the shipment clearance. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to wait and see, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

One week after the festival (10.10-14), the domestic polysilicon market was stable, and the price continued to the level before the festival, with a weekly increase of only 0.11%. As of October 14, the domestic supply price was stable, and the import supply increased slightly, with a range of 1000-2000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, at the weekend, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy reached RMB 298-30900/ton. The supply and demand of the market are flourishing, and the supply and demand are basically balanced.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month, and most domestic manufacturers have started work normally. Two units in the maintenance period have been recovered successively in September before, but under the influence of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia epidemics, although the production of units has not been affected, due to the impact of transportation, delivery may be delayed, and the supply has little impact. On the whole, the post holiday supply has significantly increased compared with the previous month, and the increase in silicon material supply is the main reason for the stabilization of silicon material price.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, silicon wafers continued to be stable this month. On September 27, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the executive price of silicon wafers. The price was still the same as that in August, rising or falling to zero. In October, the price of large silicon chip manufacturers was not adjusted, the silicon chip commencement was generally stable, and the demand continued to advance.

In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips rose slightly after the festival. The mainstream transaction price of single-crystal M6 battery chips was stable, about 1.29 yuan/W, but the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery chips rose slightly, about 1.33 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of G12 battery chips rose to about 1.31 yuan/W. The pressure on enterprises has eased slightly. The operating rate has significantly increased. Although the market has stock before the festival, the market trading is still strong after the festival. The steady shipment of terminal components, the gradual start of domestic large-scale ground power station projects, and the overseas demand for new energy layout boosted the delivery of components.

Future market forecast: polycrystalline silicon analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand of silicon materials are basically balanced at present, and the market has stabilized due to the increase in supply. Later, with the steady growth of newly put into production capacity, and the recent absence of maintenance plans by manufacturers, prices will still be somewhat suppressed. However, the increasing downstream demand will also support the high price of silicon materials, and the market is expected to remain dominated by narrow shocks.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 13, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1064 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.91%, and compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 46 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.16%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic phosphorus ore market is generally weak after returning from the National Day holiday. The demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is generally supported. The overall cold operation of the phosphate fertilizer market has relatively affected the mentality of the phosphate rock industry. However, supported by tight supply, most mining enterprises in the field still maintain a high offer. Among them, the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou was stable after the festival, and some mining enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan reduced the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan/ton. As of October 13, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1160-1260 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, after the National Day holiday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market rose as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37500 yuan/ton on October 12, up 3.09% compared with October 1 (36375 yuan/ton).

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is relatively light as a whole, giving ordinary support to the phosphate ore market. The support to maintain the stability of the phosphate ore market is mainly from the continuous tension on the supply side. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly weak and consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the bromine price fell in September as a whole and rebounded at the end of the month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 45200 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was 42600 yuan/ton, down 5.75% and 11.71% year on year. On September 29, the bromine commodity index was 149.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.04% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 153.68% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine fell in the first ten days of this month, the overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries was average recently, the market transaction was still light, and the production of bromine enterprises was relatively stable. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, the downstream did not rush to purchase, and the price was intentionally lowered. Bromine prices rose in late September, mainly because bromine prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been stocking up before the National Day, and the market turnover is slightly better than in the early days. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, bromine enterprises were reluctant to sell.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose overall in September. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 1163.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 1453.33 yuan/ton. The price rose by 24.93%, 26.23% lower than the same period last year. The downstream sulfuric acid market rose, the ammonium phosphate market rose steadily, the overall transaction atmosphere improved, the National Day holiday was approaching, the downstream demand increased, the active stock up, and the support for the sulfur market was strengthened. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province shipped smoothly, the quotation was raised, and the port continued to operate on a strong basis. The cargo holders were very optimistic about the market, and the operators were optimistic about it, which gave a positive role to the sulfur market, and the short-term sulfur market was relatively strong.

According to the analysts of the business community, the bromine price has been consolidated in the near future, and bromine enterprises intend to increase it. Near the National Day holiday, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have been actively stocking up recently. However, the supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and bromine enterprises are reluctant to sell. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (September 23 to September 30). The spot market price in East China was 16600 yuan/ton last weekend, and 16700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.6%.

Manganese ore: The overall performance of the manganese ore market is relatively cold this week. There are few deals in the market near the holiday, and the price changes are small in the days before the holiday. However, some goods will arrive in Hong Kong during the holiday. It is expected that the market price will have a slight correction after the holiday when the supply is sufficient. As of September 30, Tianjin Port (600717) had an Australian block of 45 yuan/ton, South Africa’s semi carbonic acid of 35 yuan/ton and Gabon’s 41.5 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Hong Kong Macao block is 46.5 yuan/ton, Gabon is 42.0 yuan/ton, and South Africa semi carbonate is 36.0 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. At the end of August, the price continued to stabilize after a slight rise, and at the end of September, the price recovered slightly.

The price of electrolytic manganese market started to rise slightly this week, and the enterprises had a strong attitude of price support, so the market was somewhat boosted. There is a certain demand for goods in the market near the holidays, which drives the market price to rise slightly at the end of the month. In terms of downstream demand, the market situation has been volatile recently, and procurement on demand has been maintained, and long-term cooperation has been mainly implemented, with less bulk cargo. Recently, the steel bidding situation was introduced, and the price was in a reasonable range. Most steel mills gradually resumed purchasing electrolytic manganese, which boosted the market mentality to a certain extent. However, due to the downstream demand, the market continues to be weak. It is expected that the future price will remain stable and weak, with a strong supply and demand game mentality.

Manganese and silicon: In September, the domestic silicon and manganese showed a trend of low repair and upswing. The futures market also showed a trend of bottoming out and recovery. The market activity increased, the merchants’ quotation increased, and the raw material manganese ore stopped falling and rose. In addition, some production areas were affected by public health events, and the transportation was obviously impeded, the freight also increased, and the silicon and manganese market was in a strong price fixing mood. According to the price monitoring of the business community, Ningxia (FeMN68Si18) offered 7100-7200 yuan/ton on September 29, up 2.86% from the beginning of the month.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PA66 market price rose in September, and the spot price of each brand rose. As of September 30, the ex factory price of the glue injection molding sample enterprises in the business agency PA66 was about 24750 yuan/ton on average, up or down by+11.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid trend stopped rising in September, and the continuous rise in the price of pure benzene provided impetus for adipic acid. The low starting point in the short term also supported the price. Qixiang Tengda’s accident in the first ten days did not cause serious consequences to the adiponitrile production line. In the month, the supply of hexamethylene diamine continued to be tight, and merchants were reluctant to sell. The market is improving, and enterprises and merchants have raised their offers.

The upstream raw material market is generally stronger, and the cost end support of PA66 is concentrated on the hexamethylene diamine product. In terms of the industry’s operating rate, since the previous negative market of PA66 enterprises was undertaken this month, the domestic PA66 industry’s load was not high at the beginning of the month. In addition, due to the shortage of raw materials, the market’s operating rate will not rise quickly in the future. The market’s spot supply is shrinking, and the spot market is supported by the supply side. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises tend to maintain production just because they need to follow up on the delivery of goods, and their acceptance of high priced goods is general. This month is in the traditional peak demand season. Although the demand release of downstream factories is not as good as that of previous years, the merchants have a stable mentality, and the shipments continue to increase. The deals on the market are average, and the supply of low-cost goods decreases.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot price of PA66 rose in September. The raw material side market rose mainly, and the cost side support of PA66 was mainly focused on hexamethylene diamine. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the supply side is fair, and the demand side is mainly just in need of goods. It is estimated that PA66 will continue to be boosted by the cost side in the short term.

DBP prices rose slightly in September

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price in the first and second quarters of 2022 was adjusted at a high level. In June, the DBP entered the off-season, the DBP demand was low, and the DBP price in the third quarter was adjusted at a low level. As of September 30, the DBP price was 9500 yuan/ton, up 1.06% from 9400 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of “golden nine and silver ten”, the DBP market is expected to recover, and the DBP price has reached a new high. However, the plasticizer peak season in September was not strong, and the spot transaction was sluggish.

Price of raw material phthalic anhydride stabilized after soaring

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September. As of September 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 18.05% from 8725 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Due to the double impact of the soaring price of raw materials and the increasing maintenance of phthalic anhydride enterprises, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is tight, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising sharply, the price of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing in the later ten days, the cost of DBP raw materials is stabilizing, and the rising power of DBP in the future market is weakened.

The price of raw material n-butanol was lowered in “M-type”

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol fell in a “M-shaped” shock in September. The price of n-butanol on September 30 was 6666.67 yuan/ton, down 2.91% from 6866.67 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day, the downstream staged stock up, and the price of n-butanol rose. After the short-term stock up, the market demand weakened, and the price of n-butanol fell rapidly. On the whole, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in September was general, the price of n-butanol fell in shock, the cost of DBP fell, and the upward momentum of DBP weakened.

Decrease in domestic PVC output

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of primary plastic in August 2022 was 8.944 million tons, down 2.6% year on year; From January to August, the output of primary form plastics totaled 73.78 million tons, up 0.6% year on year; In August, the output of plastic products was 6.441 million tons, down 6.9% year on year. From January to August, the output of plastic products was 5054.7 tons, down 4.9% year on year. The output of PVC products in the downstream declined, the demand for plasticizers declined, the demand for DBP was insufficient, and the pressure for DBP to fall was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the business association, in terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the price of n-butanol fell in shock, the plasticizer DBP rose strongly, and the DBP price rose slightly in shock; In terms of demand, the output of PVC products declined, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DBP increased. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride became stable in late September, the price of n-butanol became weak and stable, the cost of plasticizer DBP became stable and the demand was low. The rising support of DBP weakened the downward pressure. It is expected that the future DBP price will fluctuate and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic refrigerant R22 on September 30 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than the price of 17500.00 yuan/ton on September 1, and 27.27% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic refrigerant R134a on September 30 was 26000.00 yuan/ton, 6.85% higher than the price of 24333.33 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month, and 29.41% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the price of upstream raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, with a significant increase of 45.13% in the whole month. Hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable in the whole month, with a small decline of 0.76% in the low level in the month. In general, the price of upstream raw material continued to rise, while the price of trichloromethane rose significantly in the late period. At the same time, affected by factors such as electricity production restriction in the previous period and enterprise downtime for maintenance, the overall R22 inventory of domestic enterprises was low, the cost continued to rise, and the enterprise inventory was low, The domestic R22 market price continued to run strongly in September, supported by the downstream rigid demand.

In September, the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material of R134a, was generally weak and stable, falling slightly by 0.76% in the month, and the price of trichloroethylene continued to rise, with an overall increase of more than 10% in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, the enterprise’s inventory was relatively low, and the downstream demand remained unchanged. Supported by the cost and demand, the price of refrigerant R134a continued to run relatively strong in September.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the Business Society, the price of upstream raw materials of refrigerant continued to rise in September. At present, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the overall downstream demand remains unchanged. Supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to rise in October, supported by costs.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rose in shock this month. On September 1, the price was 7600-7700 yuan/ton (the average price was 7617 yuan/ton); On September 28, the price was 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price was 7901 yuan/ton), up 3.72% this month and 1.55% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, crude oil fell broadly this month, and cost support weakened again. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton (300 yuan/ton to 7900 yuan/ton in North China).

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On September 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 872 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars/ton month on month, or 2.9%; East China imported pure benzene at US $910 per ton, down US $2 per ton month on month, or 0.22%.

Downstream, styrene: styrene rose broadly this month and then fell back. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 8967 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 9417 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.02% this month and 2.8% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: The demand has warmed up, the supply has tightened, the aniline fundamentals have strengthened, and the price has risen continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 10350 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 12300 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that at the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As the Asian American arbitrage window is closed, the diversion of Asian pure benzene to China is increasing. It is estimated that there will still be a large number of imported cargoes in October, and the inventory of ports in East China may continue to accumulate. In terms of supply, the units of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical and HSBC Petrochemical are restarted. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Guangdong Petrochemical units of CPC Central Committee will be put into production. The downstream of pure benzene follows up cautiously, and it is possible that pure benzene will weaken in the later period. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 32000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 36375 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 13.67%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose this month. At present, the market transaction is fair. The preparation of goods before the National Day has been basically completed. The market is mainly wait-and-see at present, and the actual transaction is more cautious. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and more single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36500 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphorus ore, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market price of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore fell slightly, and the price of some mining enterprises decreased slightly by about 10-20 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the main reason for the weakening of the phosphate ore market was that the terminal demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was average, which affected the mentality of the industry. The support for the phosphate ore demand side was loose, and the overall market atmosphere was weaker than that at the end of August. At present, as the National Day holiday is approaching, the logistics transportation is also stopped in succession. The information in the phosphate rock yard is generally quiet. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate mainly in a stable way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes in the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase and decrease in September 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2500 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2600 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 3.85%. To sum up, with the rising price of coking coal, the cost of coking enterprises keeps rising, and some coking enterprises begin to lose money. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved to a certain extent, and the overall market has fluctuated upward. At present, Coke Steel has a strong game mentality. In the future, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable and relatively strong, focusing on the downstream sales of finished products and the impact of coke market trends on coke prices.

In terms of demand, the market price of phosphoric acid rose in July. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month was 8860 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 10140 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month, by 14.45%. Influenced by the upstream market, the price of phosphoric acid market rose as a whole this month. Near the end of the month, the rising trend of the phosphoric acid market fell back. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will temporarily stabilize in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices have risen this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock was adjusted at a high level, and the downstream phosphoric acid market as a whole was dominated by growth. Recently, some regions in Yunnan have limited power supply, and Guizhou and Sichuan have been rumored to have limited power supply, which is good for the yellow phosphorus market. The overall confidence of the yellow phosphorus market is fair, and it is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will consolidate and operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market fell this week (9.20-9.27), mainly due to the pressure on the dichloromethane market brought by the improvement of the supply side. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 27, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3147 yuan/ton, down 4.26% from 3287 yuan/ton last Tuesday.

This week, the Jinling plant was raised to full capacity, and the supply in the region was increased compared with the previous period, which brought some pressure to the dichloromethane market.

Domestic methane chloride started to increase slightly.

This week (9.20-9.27), the spot price of methanol rose in shock, and the cost support of dichloromethane strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 27, the spot price of methanol was 2805 yuan/ton, up 3.51% from 2710 last Tuesday. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. As an energy product, coal is in continuous shortage, and methanol has strong cost support.

In the traditional golden nine silver ten season season, the downstream rarefied materials, cleaning, and pharmaceutical industries had a small amount of stock in the early stage, but near the end of the month, the downstream stock almost ended, and the support for dichloromethane became weak.

Future market forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride has slightly increased in the short term, and the cost continues to rise. In addition, the downstream stock preparation near the end of the month is basically completed in the short term. It is expected that the market for dichloromethane will narrow before the festival. However, after the festival, methanol may have the opportunity to continue to rise as the weather gets colder, and then dichloromethane may rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12400 yuan/ton on September 19, and 12200 yuan/ton on September 26. Caprolactam prices fell 1.61% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, and the cost end of caprolactam was well supported. However, the downstream demand is not good, and there is resistance to high prices. Most of them purchase at low prices. The devices of some manufacturers were restarted, and the on-site supply of caprolactam increased. As of September 26, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12700 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose this week. The purchase enthusiasm of the downstream is good before the festival, the market negotiation increases, and the pure benzene continues to strengthen. On September 26, the crude oil fell sharply, the downstream styrene weakened, the demand for pure benzene weakened, and the market price fell slightly. The price of domestic pure benzene is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the market trading volume of caprolactam is fair in the near future, and the downstream will purchase on demand, and the caprolactam manufacturer will lower the price slightly for shipment. The supply of caprolactam will increase if the maintenance devices of some enterprises are restarted or planned to restart. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by the weak finishing operation in the short term.

From September 16, 2022 to September 23, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6100 yuan/ton last weekend and 6337.5 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.89%.

On September 22, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 218.53, up 8.19 points from yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle, and up 363.48% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Summary of coal tar price in Shanxi (unit: yuan/ton)

Region, market price, compared with the bid price last week

Linfen., 6280.,+130

Taiyuan., 6300.,+300

Lvliang., 6380.,+310

The bidding price in Shanxi continued to rise this week, hitting a record high again. The price in the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise, and the acceptance of the rising raw material price was high. The bidding price of coal tar rose again this week on the support of demand.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six consecutive months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has once again hit a record high.

Summary of Price Changes of Major Commodities in Coal Tar Deep Processing Industry in Shandong (Unit: yuan/ton)

Product name: September 16, September 23, up and down

Maleic anhydride., 8600., 8100., – 500

Industrial naphthalene., 6400., 6600.,+200

Anthracene oil., 6100., 6200.,+100

Wash oil, 6500., 6600.,+100

Coal tar pitch., 7200., 7400.,+200

In terms of the industrial chain, most of the major domestic coal chemical products rose in the current period, except for ammonium sulfate and maleic anhydride. The commodity coal tar pitch with the highest growth rate rose about 200-300 yuan/ton in the mainstream of the domestic market this week, which is different from the previous growth factors. This week’s rise was driven by the cost. Affected by the tight supply of coal tar, the tar bidding price rose sharply this week, driving the downstream commodity prices to continue to rise. And industrial naphthalene is also affected by cost factors. This week, the domestic mainstream price was 6400-6680 yuan/ton, up 200-250 yuan/ton.

The coal tar market price rose again this week. Up to now, it has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has hit a record high again. The bidding price of the main production area in Shanxi this week is 6280-6380 yuan/ton; Shandong rose slightly to 5950-6050 yuan/ton this week; Hebei region rose 100 yuan/ton to 5950-6050 yuan/ton; Henan rose 100 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the long holiday, the intention of downstream goods preparation is high, and the deep processing industry is generally active in procurement. At the same time, due to the policy of extending coking time by 40 to 45 hours in many places in Shanxi, tar supply is tight this week. Under the double positive influence of tight supply and better demand, prices in Shanxi rose sharply this week. As the market is about to enter October, it is expected that the supply will continue to shrink in the future market, and the market has a high bullish intention. At present, the tar price has hit a new historical high again, and the downstream enterprises have a certain fear of heights. However, affected by the actual demand, it is expected that the tar market will continue to operate in a stable, medium and strong trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7320 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, up 3.77% from 30 days ago.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation in the propylene (Shandong) market was 7400-7450 yuan/ton, and the enterprise’s offer was raised one after another. The market was active. With the help of Jinjiu market, the propylene sales improved and the inventory decreased. The supply remained stable, and the maintenance devices were intended to resume operation in succession. In terms of demand, the market of downstream derivatives improved, the enthusiasm for production increased, and the purchase of propylene increased.

Upstream: The raw material market fell mainly this week, but by a small margin, with limited impact on propylene prices.

Downstream: almost all downstream products rose. Driven by the peak season of the chemical industry, product profitability rebounded and productivity improved, forming a strong support for the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analyst of Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the current market supply is still loose, and most enterprise offers follow the trend of the market. There is a slight lack of momentum for future market growth. It is expected that the propylene price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price was 42400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 41800 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price fell 1.42%, down 8.42% year on year. On September 15, the bromine commodity index was 146.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.18% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 148.93% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine this week is weak. The overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is average recently. The market transaction is still light. The production of bromine enterprises is relatively stable. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, the downstream did not rush to purchase, and the price was intentionally lowered.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price rose slightly this week, with the average market price of 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1143.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose 1.48%, down 41.37% year on year. The port market continues to rise, the cargo holders have a positive attitude, and it is difficult to find low prices on the site. The downstream sulfuric acid market is stable, while the ammonium phosphate market is slightly weak. The downstream follows up on the purchase of sulfur as required. The local refineries mainly supply sulfuric acid manufacturers around. There is no inventory pressure for the time being, and the quotation is mainly stable. At present, the domestic market is not obviously good, and the short-term sulfur market is wait-and-see.

The analysts of the business society believe that the bromine price has been consolidated and operated in the near future. The bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, and the bromine supply is relatively sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine is relatively general in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and the price is deadlocked. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week, DOP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 19, the DOP price was 10312.50 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 6.87% over the DOP price of 9650 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The prices of raw materials, DOP costs and DOP prices rose significantly.

Price rise of raw materials

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol rose by shock this week. As of September 19, the price of isooctanol was 9366.67 yuan/ton, up 5.64% from the shock of 8866.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The price of isooctanol rose, and the cost of DOP rose.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of September 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9600 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 9250 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the downstream plasticizer started to rise, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, phthalic anhydride rose greatly, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, and DOP rose more.

Future market expectation

Business agency DOP data analysts believe that more plasticizer enterprises started this week; The price of raw material isooctanol rose in shock, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, and the cost of plasticizer DOP rose. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer enterprises are basically stable, the price of raw materials rises in shock, and the driving force for the rise of DOP prices is still large. It is expected that DOP prices will become strong and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 19, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, 2.27% lower than that of last Wednesday (September 14), 11.85% higher than that of August 19, and 8.76% lower than that of last Wednesday (September 14).

Recently (9.14-9.19), the market of propylene oxide has declined. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, and the cost support has been strengthened. Since the 14th, although the supply side inventory has accumulated slightly, it is temporarily controllable. The demand side is flat and just needs to follow up. The downstream purchasing sentiment is not high, so it is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. On the 19th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong Province was lowered to 9950-10100 yuan/ton. Some devices at the supply side recovered, and the demand side is still flat, waiting and waiting.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week (9.12-9.16). The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7320 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, 3.77% higher than 30 days ago.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 10166.67 on September 16, up 9.91% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that at present, the cost support is still there, the supply side is increasing, the demand side is waiting cautiously, and the market atmosphere is cold. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by the weak, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

From September 9, 2022 to September 16, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose overall, at 7800 yuan/ton last weekend, and 7866.67 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.85% weekly.

Main domestic market price of hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market, price on September 9, price on September 16, up and down

East China, 7800 ～ 7850, 7900 ～ 7950,+100

Shandong, 7650~7700., 7700~7750.,+50

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply over the weekend. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

The crude oil analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. The probability of short-term oil market wide shocks is high.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

August 11., 7950., – 200

August 16., 7750., – 200

August 18., 7500., – 250

August 30., 7600.,+100

September 6., 7750.,+150

On September 6, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene will be increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the current implementation is 7750 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly in late August and early September.

This week, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, supported by the double positive effects of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene rose, and downstream people generally purchased on demand. Their enthusiasm for purchasing high priced goods was limited, and the overall market transaction was average. In the near weekend, with the impact of the lower crude oil price and the overall decline of styrene, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the market as a whole stayed on the sidelines. However, the ex factory price of benzene hydrogenation enterprises rose overall this week, driven by the improvement of downstream procurement. On the supply side, the operating rate of pure benzene declined slightly this week, and the arrival of cargoes in East China ports was delayed, resulting in a slight shortage of market supply. On the whole, the tight supply currently supports the pure benzene market, while crude oil, styrene and other recent shocks are large, and the guidance to the industrial chain is not obvious. In addition, the impact of stock preparation before the festival, it is expected that the overall market of the industrial chain will be dominated by strong shocks in the future, and the future market will focus on the trend of crude oil and downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 15, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6966 yuan/ton. Compared with September 11 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 6666 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 4.5%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the Mid Autumn Festival (9.12-9.15), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a steady upward trend. After the festival, the downstream demand for n-butanol was released steadily. Supported by the demand side, the n-butanol market price was gradually rising. As of September 14, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 6800-7000 yuan/ton. Compared with before the festival, the price rose by 200 yuan/ton, or more than 3%. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is mild, the mentality of the industry is good, and the overall market is strong.

In terms of upstream propylene, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the overall domestic propylene market in Shandong Province showed an upward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7440.60 yuan/ton on September 14, up 1.90% compared with September 8 (7300 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-butanol has been released to a certain extent after the festival. The market transactions are relatively active, and the factory quotations are mostly firm. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly operate stably, and whether the market price can continue to rise requires more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of acrylonitrile rose sharply this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the spot market price of acrylonitrile in China was 9550 yuan/ton, up 6.23% from 8990 yuan/ton last Friday. This week, the supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was basically stable, with an overall operation rate of 60% to 70%. However, the acrylonitrile resources in Northeast Asia were more strained than in the early stage. In addition, the downstream Jinjiuyin had a small stock of goods, and the overall offer of merchants rose. As of September 10, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile apron market in East China was between 9000 and 9750 yuan/ton.

The price of raw propylene rose slightly this week (9.2-9.10), supporting the cost. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 10, the domestic propylene price was 7320 yuan/ton, up 3.98% from 7040 yuan/ton last Friday.

The operating rate of ABS in the downstream continued to increase, driven by the export inquiry. As of the first ten days of September, the operating rate of ABS had risen to nearly 90%; The operating rate of domestic acrylic fiber is low, around 40%; The acrylonitrile butadiene rubber and acrylamide started stably, and the acrylonitrile demand surface was more supportive than that in the early stage.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost of acrylonitrile is supported at present, the supply side pressure in Asia is relieved, and the demand side is slightly improved. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to rise slightly in the future.

Recently, DOTP price fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the recent DOTP price fluctuated and fell. As of September 11, the DOTP price was 9800 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from 10175 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Plasticizer enterprises started to recover slowly, and the supply of plasticizers increased. In September, DOTP prices fell in shock.

Plasticizer enterprises started to recover

With the decrease of temperature and rainfall in some areas, the situation of power shortage in Sichuan has been alleviated. General industrial and commercial power consumption in Sichuan Province has been completely restored. With the continuous support of the State Grid, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Sichuan was basically solved at the end of August and the beginning of September. After the end of power rationing, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain enterprises returned to normal, and with the advent of “golden nine and silver ten”, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises increased, and the pressure of plasticizer price decline increased.

Raw material prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol has dropped due to the recent shock. As of September 11, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan / ton, down by 2.92% from 9133.33 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, there were many overhauls of isooctanol enterprises, which led to a sharp rise in the price of isooctanol at the end of August. However, the plasticizer enterprises started to work at a low level, and the plasticizer enterprises were cautious in stocking up before the festival. The demand for isooctanol was weak, the support for the rise of isooctanol price was insufficient, and the price of isooctanol fell slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the recent PTA price fluctuated and rose. As of September 11, the PTA price was 6613.33 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the shock of 6355.83 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, PTA’s operating load was low, there were many enterprises that stopped production and overhauled, PTA’s supply was insufficient, and in addition, PX’s price rose and PTA’s cost rose, which greatly supported PTA’s price rise.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DOTP data from the business association believe that the plasticizer enterprises started to recover in September, PTA prices rose in shock, isooctanol prices stabilized in shock, and DOTP prices fell in shock. In the future, with the arrival of Jinjiu, the supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain have both warmed up, the price of raw materials has risen in shock, and the downward pressure of the rising momentum of DOTP has been weakened. It is expected that the DOTP price will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, as of September 5, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5016 yuan / ton, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that on August 28, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 4866 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.08%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of business association that in the first week of September (8.29-9.5), the diethylene glycol market rose steadily as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the cargo volume of diethylene glycol in the storage area was low, the confidence of the industry was boosted, and the market situation was steadily rising as a whole. At the middle of the week, the feedback of the diethylene glycol market was general, the momentum of the continuous growth of the diethylene glycol market was general, and the market was running steadily. At the weekend, the overall diethylene glycol market situation was again rising steadily, the downstream demand was slightly boosted, and the market focus was steadily rising. As of September 5, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 4900-5300 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is fair, the attitude of the industry is positive, and the downstream just needs to be the main one.

At present, the diethylene glycol market as a whole is running steadily, moderately and strongly, of which the rise in South China is more obvious, and the downstream demand has given the market some support. The diethylene glycol statistician of business society believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will be mostly stable and small, with interval adjustment.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 4900.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 4633.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.44%. This week, the factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes was 4480 yuan / ton. On September 4, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 121.93, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.76% from 144.74 points (June 21, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.08% from 96.71 points, the lowest point on September 16, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4400 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 4850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 4650 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 4400-4500 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 4500-4600 yuan / ton. 62% of Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4300 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4880 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 9525.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9475.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.02%. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly, from 6825.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6800.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.37%, up 20.35% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuation and decline. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase is just needed. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Analysts of potassium chloride of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

After hitting the bottom, the chloroform market rose slightly in August. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2825 yuan / ton, up 4.63% from 2700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. First of all, after August, the pressure on the supply side of high-level trichloromethane for the commencement of methane chloride continued; Secondly, the slight increase in the price of raw methanol supported chloroform; Finally, the after-sales demand of downstream refrigerant in high-temperature weather increases, which has more impact on chloroform.

In August, the domestic methane chloride plant started steadily, and the overall supply was loose.

In August, the raw material methanol market fell first and then rose. The spot price fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 150 yuan / ton, which has a certain support for trichloromethane. According to the business agency, as of August 31, the price of methanol was 2540 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from 2555 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The lowest point in the month was 2412 yuan / ton, and the highest point was 2568 yuan / ton. In August, the high-temperature weather was the peak of power consumption, the coal supply was relatively tight, and the methanol supply for the early methanol plant maintenance was relatively tight. Methanol was supported by the cost and supply side, and the price was adjusted in a narrow range from a high level in stages. It can be seen from the “methanol trichloromethane price trend comparison” chart that currently the cost of methanol continues to be supported by trichloromethane.

In August, high temperature weather occurred frequently throughout the country, and the overall price of refrigerant R22 rose slightly. The demand is supported by trichloromethane.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business club believe that the supply side pressure is still on, but the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the price of chloroform will fluctuate narrowly in the later period.

Magnesium metal trend in August

In August, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 22000-26000 yuan / ton, and the average price in the cycle was 23557.47 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of commodities were 11.92%. This month, the magnesium market experienced strong shocks, and the overall price moved upward. At the beginning of the month, the magnesium price showed a weak consolidation, the demand follow-up was insufficient, the superimposed cost support was weak, the market maintained a cautious attitude, and magnesium factories also took measures to reduce and limit production one after another, but the total supply was still on the high side; In mid August, the magnesium market ushered in the first round of price increase in August, with a continuous increase of about 2000 yuan / ton for four days. Export orders on the demand side were released in a concentrated manner, some domestic middlemen speculated and hoarded goods, and magnesium factories took advantage of the trend to raise prices; Near the end of the month, the magnesium market ushered in the second round of price increase, which rapidly rose to the transaction price of 26000 yuan / ton. The main factor of this round of sharp increase is the impact of the epidemic in Shenmu area, which has made the already high coal price worse. People in the industry are pessimistic about coal supply expectations.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of August 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 25666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of about 2500-3000 yuan / ton over the beginning of the month, a decrease of 11.92%, which was the same as that of the same period last year.

Market analysis

Export

According to customs statistics, China’s magnesium ingot export in July was 24936 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.4%, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Compared with June, the export volume decreased slightly, and the monthly export volume and cumulative export volume were still at a high level.

Output:

In July, China’s magnesium ingot output was 69286 tons, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, a year-on-year increase of 18.73%, an operating rate of 59.47%, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. From June to August, the magnesium plant was overhauled at high temperature in summer. Due to the weak market demand, the contradiction of overproduction in the main production area was prominent, and some magnesium enterprises had a serious shortage of funds, so they had to take the initiative to stop production for overhaul.

Raw materials

Coke fell by 18.18% in August

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced two rounds of increases in August, with an increase of 400-480 yuan / ton in the month. The increase in production costs boosted the rise in magnesium prices. Recently, an epidemic broke out in Shenmu area. At present, some coal mines and traffic have been affected to a certain extent. It is not ruled out that the coal supply will be more tight in the future, which will further lead to the shutdown of the magnesium plant.

Future forecast

In general, the expected shortage of raw materials in the short term supports the rise of magnesium prices and production costs. Factories are not willing to reduce their quotations too quickly. However, considering that demand has not recovered at present and there are few export orders, it is expected that magnesium prices will be consolidated in September. Follow up attention will be paid to the impact of the epidemic on raw material transportation and downstream transactions.

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole continued to rise, and the Henan market showed a phased rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 1, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3765 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average price was 4030 yuan / ton, with an increase of 7.04% within the month and 13.12% compared with the same period last year.

As of August 31, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region. Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4230 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4350 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4010-4030 yuan / ton

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether market price was relatively strong, the ex factory quotation in Henan market was increased in stages, and the Hebei and Shandong markets were also significantly higher. In August, there were many favorable factors in the market. First, the equipment maintenance of enterprises such as Henan Yima in the month significantly reduced the market supply. The raw material methanol market increased in the second half of the month, which brought certain support to the market in terms of cost. The civil gas market of related products was strong in August, which was favorable to the market. The market entry is more active in the downstream buying mentality. The inventory of the manufacturers is in a controllable state. The mentality is relatively strong and the price rises in stages.

In the spot market of raw material methanol, at the end of the month, the price center of domestic methanol market rose, and the rebound of crude oil and coal boosted the futures market. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises was low, and traders were in the mood of boosting. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 22 to 29, the average price of domestic methanol market increased from 2458 yuan / ton to 2539 yuan / ton. During the period, the price increased by 3.26%, and the price fell by 2.23% month on month and 2.91% year on year.

On the whole, at present, the raw material methanol is the main actor in the market, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. The civil market of related products liquefied gas is supported by the rise of international crude oil at the end of the month, and the price rises significantly. Moreover, the golden nine is coming, and the operators have a good attitude. Currently, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market has mostly risen to above 4000 yuan / ton. However, in September, the units of some manufacturers recovered, and the market supply level was improved, which brought some restrictions. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will rise steadily in September.

In August, the price of adjacent benzene stopped falling and rose

It can be seen from the price trend chart of ortho xylene in the business community that the price of ortho xylene rose in August, the price of ortho xylene in the external market rose in a volatile manner, and the price of ortho xylene in China rose. As of August 30, the price of o-benzene was 8300 yuan / ton, up by 3.75% compared with the price of o-benzene on August 1 at the beginning of the month, which was 8000 yuan / ton. In July, the price of adjacent benzene fell for three consecutive days. In August, the price of adjacent benzene stopped falling and stabilized. At the end of August, the price of adjacent benzene stopped falling and rose. In general, the price of adjacent benzene recovered and rose in August.

Tight supply of o-benzene outer disk

In August, the external price of o-xylene fluctuated and increased, and the external price of o-xylene in Europe and Asia increased slightly by about 50 yuan / ton. Since the second quarter, the import volume of o-xylene has been almost zero, and recently the export window of o-xylene has been opened, the port inventory of o-xylene has dropped sharply, the external supply of o-xylene is tight, and the external price of o-xylene has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price rise of domestic o-xylene.

Market trend of industrial chain

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community, the price of mixed xylene fell first and then rose in August. As of August 30, the price of mixed xylene was 7980 yuan / ton, down 2.21% from 8160 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and became stable, and the cost of o-xylene became stable. The downward pressure of o-xylene weakened and the upward momentum remained.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in the business community that in August, the price of phthalic anhydride surged and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of August 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8725 yuan / ton, up by 9.75% from 7950 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride increased, the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the driving force for the increase of o-xylene increased.

Future outlook

According to the data analysis of o-xylene of business agency, the port inventory of o-xylene was greatly removed in August, the supply of o-xylene was tight, and the driving force for the increase of o-xylene was increased; The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream rose sharply, and the downstream market of o-xylene recovered. In the future, the tight supply will continue, and the recovery of demand will stimulate the rise of o-xylene. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will rise slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 29, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.05% compared with the price on August 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.17% in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market rose in August, and the market atmosphere was weak near the end of the month. In the first ten days, the price of raw material urea fell, the cost support was general, the operating rate of melamine market fell to a low level, but the terminal operation was low, the procurement was based on demand, and the market negotiation focus was stable. In the middle and late ten days, the price of raw material urea increased slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the enterprises in some regions stopped or reduced production, the market supply was reduced, and the market price was supported. However, the downstream demand performance was flat, and the market mentality was still cautious. Near the end of the month, the operating rate of melamine was expected to increase, but the downstream demand was still weak, and the melamine market was stable and weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on August 29. On August 26, the reference price of urea was 2394.00, a decrease of 0.58% compared with August 1 (2408.00).

According to the melamine analyst of business association, the current raw material urea market is strong, with certain support from the cost side, and the market supply is expected to increase, but the demand side is flat, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be under pressure, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.