According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 30, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton, which was 234 yuan/ton higher than that of January 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton), or 8.57%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic market of Dimethyl carbonate in the first half of 2023 is in a fluctuating upward trend. In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market rose and fell, with an overall increase of 2.86% in the second quarter. In January and February, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate was good, and the downstream staged stocking supported the rising market, with an increase of 3.57% in January and 10.00% in February. In March, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate weakened, the demand support became loose, and the market price fell, down 6.49% in March.

In the second quarter of 2023, the Dimethyl carbonate market will first fall and then rise, with an increase of 5.56% in the second quarter. In April, Dimethyl carbonate market fluctuated slightly, and the demand support was limited, with a decline of 0.69% in April. In May, the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to run downward, and the effective support in the market was insufficient, with a decline of 4.20% in May. In June, the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to rise. Some devices in the plant were shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the plant was tight. The supply side supported the market upward, and Dimethyl carbonate increased by 10.95% in June.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall Dimethyl carbonate market is operating stably. The trading atmosphere in the market is general, the overall supply of the supply side has increased, and a certain wait-and-see atmosphere has been added in the market. The Dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7166 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of 7400 yuan/ton of propylene glycol), the price was reduced by 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the overall market situation of domestic propylene glycol showed a rise followed by a decline, and finally ended with a slight decline. In the first quarter, the overall propylene glycol market showed an upward trend, with tight spot supply of propylene glycol and good downstream demand. Supported by both supply and demand, propylene glycol increased by 8.11% in January and 16.94% in February. In March, downstream demand for propylene glycol weakened, and propylene glycol opened a high point and fell back, with a decrease of 12.54% in March.

In the second quarter, the overall market situation of propylene glycol showed a slight increase followed by a weak decline. In April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the supply of propylene glycol tightened. The supply side supported the upward movement of the market, and propylene glycol rose 4.38% in April. In May, downstream demand for propylene glycol did not boost significantly, with loose support on the demand side, resulting in a decrease of 8.02% in propylene glycol. In June, the propylene glycol market continued to operate in a weak downward trend, with insufficient effective support on the market. In June, propylene glycol fell by 10.79%.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is relatively light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. New orders are generally traded, and the propylene glycol data analyst from the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the domestic Shandong propane market saw a rebound in growth and quickly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on July 3rd was 3963 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 3780 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 1.6%, a decrease of 37.26% compared to the same period last year.

As of July 7th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 7th

East China/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

North China/ 3850-3950 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3700-3850 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 3800-3850 yuan/ton

This week (7.3-7.7), the Shandong propane market continued to decline, with prices rapidly falling. Due to refineries raising prices one after another over the weekend, downstream consumers have a clear resistance towards high priced goods, resulting in a significant decrease in buying gas. In addition, the impact of imported low priced goods has increased inventory pressure on refineries. In order to stimulate sales, prices have rebounded this week.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in June 2023, with propane at $450 per ton, a decrease of $105 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $440 per ton, a decrease of $115 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, after the price correction, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has improved, and it is expected that the propane market will be slightly weaker in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14140 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 180 yuan/ton compared to June 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14300 yuan/ton), a decrease of 1.26%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that from June to present (6.1 to 6.30), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has experienced a slight decline. In early June, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC continued to be weak. Shandong large factories slightly lowered the price of organic silicon DMC, leading to a slight decline in the overall market. As of June 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14000-14500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.84% in the first ten days.

In late June, the overall organic silicon DMC market continued to decline slightly. Due to the continued weak demand and general support for raw materials, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market remained mainly light. Some organic silicon DMC suppliers narrowly lowered the prices of organic silicon DMC by around 100-200 yuan/ton. Before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply and demand news of the organic silicon DMC market was relatively calm, with downstream demand being cautious. The overall market consolidation and operation were sideways. As of June 30, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14000-14300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.26% during the month.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average, with limited trading of new orders on the market. Weak costs also provide limited cost support for organic silicon DMC. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price List of Ethylene Oxide in June

At the end of May, large factories lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton. In June, epoxy ethane basically maintained a horizontal operation of 6000 yuan/ton. According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on June 30, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

Entering July, due to the impact of the hot weather, there are expectations of further reduction in demand release from downstream construction sites, and off-season expectations for terminal demand, which may lead to a loosening of the current supply-demand balance trend of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer. The expected decrease in production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises may lead to a decrease in demand for ethylene oxide.

Low load operation of large factories

At present, the price of ethylene oxide is relatively low, and some manufacturers have hit the cost line, facing increasing pressure to lose money. From the supply side perspective, in June, some ethylene oxide factories had passive production reductions or proactive load reduction to balance enterprise benefits. In addition, some production factories switched to producing ethylene glycol or adjusted their own usage ratio to alleviate production and sales pressure. The low load operation of large factories in July may continue.

The price of ethylene oxide in July is expected to maintain stable operation

Overall, the supply and demand of ethylene oxide are weak, and the price is horizontally stagnant at a low level. From the perspective of cost, the domestic mainstream processes are divided into Naphtha, ethane/mixed alkane, external ethylene production, MTO route, etc; Among them, the Naphtha route accounts for about 49%, followed by ethane and ethylene production. The cost of ethylene production is relatively favorable, and the cost pressure on crude oil routes is relatively high.

In the short term, the cost support for ethylene oxide is weak, and the supply and demand pattern is also difficult to improve. It is expected that the price will continue the current horizontal trend, and the price of ethylene oxide is likely to maintain stable operation in July.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic market price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of Ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, 0.74% higher than the beginning price of 4030 yuan/ton, and 12.69% lower than the same period last year.

In June, the domestic Ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was normal, the terminal upstream coal price rose, the price of nitric acid fell slightly, the price of liquid ammonia declined, the downstream demand was normal, and the price trend of Ammonium nitrate market rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of Ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the downstream nitro compound fertilizer purchase is general, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry purchase remains low. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of Ammonium nitrate is mainly volatile. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5000 and 5100 yuan/ton, in Shandong region, between 4000 and 4100 yuan/ton, and in Hebei region, between 4000 and 4100 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China decreased in June, with an average price of 1966.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 3.28% compared to the price of 2033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer prices ranging from 1800 to 2000 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient supply of goods, high price trading is under pressure, high-end prices are mostly sold at reduced prices, while the downstream demand is relatively reduced, the deal on the market is light, and the price of raw nitric acid declines, which has a negative impact on the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase of Ammonium nitrate market is limited.

In June, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market significantly decreased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 2700 yuan/ton, a 10% decrease from the initial price of 3000 yuan/ton. As agricultural and industrial demand weakened, the ammonia market continued to hit new lows. The supply in Shandong region has significantly increased. Due to the upward trend in liquid ammonia prices in the early stage, ammonia companies have generally switched from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in inventory backlog and pressure on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Liquid ammonia manufacturers have generally lowered prices. On the demand side, the current agricultural demand is affected by the off-season, downstream procurement is slowing down, and the double pressure of supply and demand has led to a sharp decline in the price of liquid ammonia. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price of Ammonium nitrate has little change.

In the near future, the downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the demand is not improving. In addition, the market price of raw liquid ammonia continues to decline, and the price trend of nitric acid declines. The negative factors are superimposed. The Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of Ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fell in June: urea prices dropped from 2402.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2257.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.04%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 27.25% year-on-year.

On June 27th, the urea commodity index was 104.16, an increase of 0.12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 31.62% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 87.34% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in June.

Cost side: Upstream market prices fluctuate with each other

In June, the price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and increased, rising from 3750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3974.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.97%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 32.21% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan Anthracite (washing in quick) fell slightly, from 1160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 920 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 240 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2683.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.56%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 43.78% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a significant decline in upstream urea products and insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine has slightly decreased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. The price of melamine decreased slightly in June, from 7125.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.37%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market may experience slight fluctuations and gains in mid to early July. The price of upstream LNG has a downward trend, the price of Anthracite has consolidated at a low level, and the cost support is general. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Corn in the north and rice in the south have good fertilizer use, with increasing agricultural demand and industrial demand being the main demand. Urea may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of June 27th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On June 26, the rubber and plastic index was 643 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.34% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 21.78% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 26, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 5133 yuan/ton, which was 567 yuan/ton higher than that of June 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4566 yuan/ton), an increase of 12.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since June (6.1-6.26), the overall market situation of Dimethyl carbonate in China has been rising continuously. In the first ten days of June, some devices in the Dimethyl carbonate plant were shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the plant was tight. The supply side supported the steady rise of the market. As of June 15, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 4800-5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.30% in the first ten days.

In late June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate was boosted, the stock was well prepared before the festival, the spot supply of Dimethyl carbonate was tight, the supply and demand transmission was smooth, and the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to move towards the high-end. As of June 26, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 5000-5300 yuan/ton, with an increase of more than 12% in the month.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand for Dimethyl carbonate decreased, and the inquiry heat decreased. In addition, after the Dimethyl carbonate market rose to a high level, the wait-and-see mood in the market became stronger, and the new orders were also closed cautiously. The Dimethyl carbonate mathematician of the business agency believed that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fallen this week. As of June 25th, the spot nickel quotation was 174250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 7.71%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 7 and fallen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, the US suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled in June, and although hawkish signals were released that there may still be two more rate hikes, the market seems not very satisfied with this. The probability of next month’s rate hike is not yet firmly predicted, and domestic economic stabilization policies have also arrived as expected, providing protection for the recovery. Overall, macro sentiment has rebounded.

In terms of supply: In June, domestic nickel electrowinning continued to increase in volume, with new pure nickel production lines being put into operation as scheduled and refined nickel production increasing slightly. Indonesian nickel production capacity continued to surge, and nickel iron reflux continued to increase, impacting the domestic market. Adequate supply still brought pressure on nickel prices, while Russian nickel supply increased and premiums continued to decrease.

In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel is stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. The production of stainless steel reached a new high in May, and the production schedule remained basically unchanged in June; The order of ternary precursor recovered, and the price of Nickel(II) sulfate stabilized and rose; Alloy and electroplating companies maintain an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.

In summary, the macro economy has rebounded, supply continues to increase, demand is average, and overall nickel inventory is at a low level. There has been a slight rebound in the near future, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China increased from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 24.68% year-on-year. On June 18th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1050 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5524.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5554.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.54%. Weekend prices fell by 33.76% year-on-year. The PVC market price has fluctuated slightly, leading to an increase in downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In late June, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and gains. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. In late June, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from June 9 to June 16, 2023 was slightly reduced, from 5728.75 yuan/ton last weekend to 5416.25 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 5.45%.

In terms of crude oil: During this cycle, crude oil fell first and then rose. Overall, on June 12th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.12/barrel, a decrease of $3.05 or 4.3%, reaching a low point in nearly three months. On June 15th, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures main contract was $70.62 per barrel, an increase of $2.35 or 3.4%. The overall trend of crude oil during the week was volatile.

On June 15th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 70.62 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.35 US dollars or 3.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $75.67 per barrel, an increase of $2.47 or 3.4%. Unexpected retail growth in the United States in May, supported by positive employment data. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has led to a rebound in the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on June 13, 2023, and is currently at 6200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6400 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6133 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On June 12th, the price of pure benzene was 6442 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 16th), the price of pure benzene was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.68% from last week and 37.37% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has been declining for eight consecutive weeks, with both positive and negative trends in recent times.

In terms of industrial chain: the domestic pure benzene market continued to decline in this cycle, crude oil fell deeply at the beginning of the week, and the Asian pure benzene market declined. The domestic pure benzene inventory was high, and the pure benzene market was mixed with bad news. Near the weekend, the market news was that the domestic new devices would be put into production in the later stage, and the market expected loose supply, dragging down the pure benzene market mentality. The price of pure benzene in the week fell to 6100-6170 yuan/ton in East China, 6050-6100 yuan/ton in Shandong. The overall trend of the industrial chain is weak, driving a broad downward adjustment of related commodities this week.

This week, most crude benzene auctions went down, with Shanxi executing 5280-5350 yuan/ton and a decrease of 260-350 yuan/ton. The Shandong region implemented 5460 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 320 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has limited changes this week, while the supply of crude benzene has not changed much. In terms of demand, hydrogenated benzene has continued to decline, causing losses for enterprises. The operating rate has decreased due to increased equipment maintenance. This week, the mainstream factory price of hydrogenated benzene was between 6150 and 6200 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 300 yuan/ton. After the overall performance of the industrial chain was weak and the downstream market continued to weaken, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene decreased, the demand for crude benzene weakened, and the downstream price pressure mentality was strong. This week, most crude benzene auctions went down. Overall, the industrial chain is weakening, and the supply of crude benzene is tight, which has some resilience. However, there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be some room for decline. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the crude benzene market will operate weakly in the near future, with a focus on the trend of crude oil and the impact of downstream demand for pure benzene on the market.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have stabilized at a low level this week, with sulfuric acid prices at 182.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 83.09% year-on-year. On June 11th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 28.33, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 84.94% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 820.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 840.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.44%. Over the weekend, prices fell 78.86% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9657.14 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 17.18% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16133.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 21.75% year-on-year. The downstream market has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late June, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the atmosphere of the domestic BDO market has rebounded. From June 5th to 9th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11078 yuan/ton to 11028 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.45%, a month on month decrease of 12.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.94%.

Some BDO devices have undergone maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply. Suppliers mainly supply contract orders, while spot controlled supply is strong in the market. Downstream small households have a strong demand to replenish their positions, coupled with online auction transaction prices continuing to rise, causing overall market volatility to rise. Some production enterprises have been slow to follow up on prices, and market prices have rebounded towards the weekend.

Supply side,. Short term BDO supply is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak. On June 9th, the benchmark price for calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.76% compared to the beginning of this month (3150.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is operating in a weak trend. On June 9th, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2085.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.43% compared to the beginning of this month (2160.00 yuan/ton). Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the situation in the spandex industry is weak and declining. The Cathay Pacific Xinhua PTMEG device was shut down for maintenance on June 5th, and the Chongqing Jianfeng device was repaired from June 9th to 15th, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion. The PBT industry has a load of nearly 60%, increasing the digestion of raw materials and following up on orders in demand; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 40-50%, and follow-up is required. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the supply volume is still decreasing, and the supplier has a strong mentality of controlling quantity and being reluctant to sell. However, the overall opening of the downstream industry has slightly declined, with a reduction in raw material consumption and a focus on maintaining contract follow-up. BDO analysts from the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, under the influence of comprehensive factors such as the acquisition trend of Spring Cocoon, the continuation of terminal recovery, and the digestion of negative factors affecting the early stage, domestic raw silk prices have continued to rise this week (5.27-6.2). As of June 2nd, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 430550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to last week and a year-on-year increase of 10.96%; The average market price of dried cocoons remained stable at 139700 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.46%;

This week, the spot market of raw silk continued to maintain a pattern of just in demand pickup, and prices have remained relatively stable in recent times. The transaction of high-quality raw silk is average, and the transaction price has not changed much. Some units have almost fully invested in the acquisition of cocoons.

At a time when the national trend of spring cocoon harvest and drying is clear, the purchase and sales of spring cocoons are also shifting from active intentions to actual implementation. In Guangxi region, due to the high temperatures and other weather conditions this week, although the purchase price of dried cocoons has decreased compared to the previous period, the overall cocoon quality indicates that the cost of receiving and drying cocoons for this batch of cocoons may remain unchanged or slightly higher compared to the previous period. From the perspective of some regions such as Sichuan, the direct acquisition of cocoon capital by leading enterprises, coupled with costs such as investment in the base, still results in a relatively high comprehensive conversion price. Cocoon purchases in some major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangsu began this week and are expected to form a comprehensive acquisition situation in the near future. The price of dry cocoons this week has slightly increased compared to last week.

There has been no significant change in the prices of silk and satin for domestic and foreign sales this week, and the difference in prices compared to last week is very small. In the current climate of sluggish terminal consumption, it is difficult to sustain a recovery in actual transactions. Most buyers purchase on demand, and there are few behaviors of hoarding large amounts of inventory. If market demand can gradually start, favorable demand will support prices, and market trading activity will increase. We look forward to ushering in a new market trend.

Analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the spot market prices are relatively strong in consolidation, with insufficient downstream buying gas and overall flat production and sales data. Upstream raw material prices are steadily high, and for a certain period of time, costs can still form support. It is expected that raw silk will continue to be at a high level in the near future, with a strong consolidation path.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of June 2, 2023, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 716.67 yuan/ton, or 10.70%, compared to the price on May 26, 2023 (reference price of 6700 yuan/ton for diethylene glycol).

From the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.27-6.2), the diethylene glycol market experienced a broad decline. This week, international oil prices first fell and then rose, showing fluctuations, and the impact of cost on the diethylene glycol market is limited. The total number of arrivals to the port during the week is relatively large, and the downstream construction level is relatively low. The initial follow-up efforts are average, and the demand cannot be consumed during the cycle. The inventory increase in the main port is significant, and the mentality of the operators is weakening. The focus of negotiations has decreased significantly. The addition of 1 million tons/year EO/EG devices in Sanjiang has recently produced qualified products, increasing market supply pressure and weak market adjustment, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As of this weekend (June 2), the domestic diethylene glycol market price is around 5800-6000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the short term, due to the pressure from the economic downturn, crude oil will still not reduce, and there may be insufficient support for diethylene glycol due to the temporary inability to form a clear operating trend; Although some ships arrive at the port for centralized replenishment, the subsequent arrival volume is limited, and the port inventory fluctuates at a low level. The tight supply situation will continue, and the supply side support will still exist; Terminal demand is weak, and the downstream unsaturated resin market continues to weaken. Currently, the overall capacity utilization rate is 29%, a decrease of 1% compared to the previous cycle. Diethylene glycol analysts from the business community believe that the short-term diethylene glycol market may maintain a weak pattern, specifically focusing on downstream follow-up and the impact of changes in market sentiment.

The price of ethylene glycol in May showed a weak inverted “V” shape

According to data from Business News Agency, as of May 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4103.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4310 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On May 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 478 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 483 US dollars per ton.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, with a trend of “V” in price, and the price continued to move downward at the end of the month.

Ethylene glycol prices may continue to be weak in June

The price of ethylene glycol in June may continue to be weak, for the following reasons:

1. Ethylene glycol port inventory

At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 29th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 933100 tons. After late April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to be depleted, and it has been operating in the range of less than 1 million tons since May. The maintenance of overseas devices in June is relatively low, and the import volume may rebound, which may hinder the process of port inventory destocking.

2. Downstream demand has not changed much

Downstream, the polyester production rate has recently improved, with a polyester production capacity utilization rate of 88.25%, an increase of 2.41% month on month, and a production of 1.2524 million tons, an increase of 2.41% month on month. Next week’s weekly production is expected to be above 1.26 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 89%. The space for further increasing demand will be narrowed in the future.

3. Low spot supply of ethylene glycol rebounds

In the early stage, the coal production plants were restarted one after another due to short shutdowns, and new plants were put into operation. The low supply level slightly rebounded, and the speed of ethylene glycol storage slowed down. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the cash flow of domestic coal production processes has been restored. In June, the coal production plant is expected to restart, and the operating rate of coal production may show a rebound trend. Therefore, the supply of coal to ethylene glycol may increase. However, there is still a high demand for short-term maintenance of oil production equipment, and the supply side increment is expected to be limited. The 1 million ton EG+EO device of Sanjiang Chemical has been successfully started up within a week, and the load is gradually increasing; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan was shut down in early May and is expected to restart in early June.

4. Weak cost support for ethylene glycol

In the macro environment, the prices of terminal raw materials such as coal and crude oil are in a downward or fluctuating trend, making it difficult to focus and amplify the cost impact factors of ethylene glycol in the short term.

Future market forecast

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within the historical relatively low range, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains in the short term.

Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.

At present, oil prices remain volatile, but coal prices continue to operate in a weak manner, and the cost support for ethylene glycol has weakened. It is expected that in the short term, ethylene glycol will weaken in the future market and the probability of fluctuations will increase. The average price range for June is around 3900-4150 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic lead ingot market experienced a volatile trend in May 2023, with prices slightly decreasing. The average price in the domestic market was 15210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15120 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.59%.

On May 29th, the lead commodity index was 92.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 23.54% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On May 29th, the base metal index stood at 1163 points, an increase of 13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 28.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.15% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend has been fluctuating in the past three months, with a mixed weekly trend.

In May 2023, the trend of the lead ingot market was volatile, with an overall trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling. The monthly fluctuations were not significant, basically continuing the trend of the first three months, and the off-season trend was relatively strong. The price fluctuation range is between 15110 to 15290 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.59%. The recent changes in the supply and demand side are limited, and the overall market atmosphere remains low in the off-season. The supply performance is decent, and social inventory has also increased to some extent. In terms of demand, the downstream battery industry is generally in the off-season of the industry, with poor performance in the end consumer market. Some small storage companies have recently experienced significant pressure on finished products, high inventory, and a high demand for raw material procurement, with limited demand for lead ingot restocking. Overall, there has been a slight increase in market supply after the holiday, while demand remains weak. In the future, the business community predicts that the trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

Related data:

May 26, 2023 London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory temporarily stabilized at 35475 tons

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2023, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.133 million and 2.159 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 76.8% and 82.7%. From January to April, the production and sales of automobiles reached 8.355 million and 8.235 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s lead production in April 2023 was 614000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.53%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2023, global refined lead production was 1.3525 million tons, consumption was 1.3925 million tons, and there was a supply shortage of 40000 tons. The global lead ore production in March 2023 was 569300 tons.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (5.19-5.26). On May 26th, the average market price was 199310 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the average market price was 196110 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.63%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the overall trend of the tin ingot market is weak, with a narrow weekly increase after four consecutive weeks of decline.

The futures market experienced a volatile trend in the early part of this week, following the overall market fluctuations. By the night of the 24th, non-ferrous metals had generally declined, with only the Shanghai Tin Index rising 0.13%. By the end of the 25th, the main 2306 contract of Shanghai Tin Index closed at 196980 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.17%. On the 24th, the ITA International Tin Association stated that the Ministry of Finance of the Wa State in Myanmar issued a notice on May 20, 2023, regarding the implementation of the “suspension of all mineral resource mining”. The policy of ceasing all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in mines after August 1, 2023 will be implemented. After this news was released, the market raised concerns about tin ore supply in the future, and the futures market rose. However, the recent market atmosphere has been generally negative, and demand expectations have been generally weak, resulting in limited overall market growth. From the perspective of supply and demand, there have been limited changes this week, and manufacturers still have a strong mentality of price competition. The supply at the mining end is tight but has not improved yet, and refineries have a strong reluctance to sell. The changes on the demand side are limited, and the demand is still weak. However, the recent significant rise in the semiconductor industry has given the market a certain boost. In terms of inventory, there has been a significant decline in social inventory this week, and trading has been relatively positive this week, boosted by news from Wa State. Overall, the pattern of weak downstream actual demand continues, and the impact of supply and demand on tin prices is relatively weak.

On May 26, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin storage increased by 35 tons from 1925 tons

On May 28th, the base metal index stood at 1150 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.84% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 79.13% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2023 (5.22-5.26), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were neodymium oxide (5.41%), metallic praseodymium (5.04%), and praseodymium oxide (4.30%). There are 9 products that have decreased month on month, and 2 products that have decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; Top 3 products in decline

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the SG5 PVC carbide method fell this week. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5612 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 5530 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.46% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic spot market continued to fall this week. Overall, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and downstream procurement is lukewarm and not hot. Inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not good, and actual transactions are cautious and more wait-and-see. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5250-6170 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on May 25th, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.83 per barrel, a decrease of $2.51 or 3.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $76.18 per barrel, a decrease of $2.18 or 2.9%. The expectation of further production cuts by OPEC+in oil producing countries has weakened, putting pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3183.33 yuan/ton. The upstream price of blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and the demand for calcium carbide has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that PVC spot prices will continue to decline this week. At present, the demand for PVC spot market is still weak. Downstream and traders are mostly wait-and-see oriented, with poor market confidence and average trading atmosphere. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of carbon black in the downstream market has also risen recently, driven by the rising price of raw material coal tar. On May 24, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8233 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the raw material coal tar market has been operating stably, with good support for carbon black cost side. The prices of coal tar pitch and anthracene oil in the downstream have both risen significantly, driving up the market price of coal tar. Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the market price of carbon black has also risen.

Supply and demand side: Currently, carbon black manufacturers have produced carbon black from high priced raw materials in the early stage, and there is a buildup of inventory on site. Some carbon black enterprises have arranged for a slight reduction in their inventory, while most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. Downstream market procurement is cautious, with most of them focusing on hard demand.

In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable, finished product inventory is at a reasonable level, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions in the carbon black market are relatively weak.

On the whole, the raw material coal tar market is operating stably, and the cost side has some support, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and there is no positive phenomenon in the field. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to decline last week, with overall reductions in various wire drawing brands. As of May 22nd, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7142.86 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -7.32% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the recent low point recovery in the Shandong propylene market has been slight. In the early stage, crude oil continued to weaken and rebounded last week, directly benefiting the spot price of propylene on the cost side. Downstream devices are operating and maintaining, with limited procurement volume, and the export pressure of propylene enterprises remains unchanged. The current market wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong, and it is expected that the Shandong propylene market will be mainly organized and operated. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost side news.

The narrow rebound in propylene prices does not significantly improve the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 75% last week, and recent shipments have remained generally stable with expectations of an increase in supply. There is sufficient supply of goods on the market, and inventory pressure has increased, with poor support from the supply side for spot prices. Meanwhile, the continued decline in futures dragged down the spot market. In terms of demand, the downstream plastic weaving production of the main force has slightly declined, and the operating rate of film material enterprises has recovered to 40%. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is poor, and procurement is mainly maintained for production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7287.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -5.36% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 17.96% compared to the same period last year. Last week, the low load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, continued horizontally, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The current weak demand for fiber materials on the site is dragging down the digestion speed of non-woven end products, and the enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are lagging behind. In addition, the supply side’s bearish situation is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, last week’s melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline. As of May 22nd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8125 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.42%. At present, the domestic health events are stabilizing, and local news in society is unable to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders have given up on orders, indicating that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has recently declined. The raw material propylene market is generally stable at a low level, with poor support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production while receiving goods, with weak demand release. The market is biased towards bearish guidance, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of May 18, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared with May 12, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 7866 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.12-5.19), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a weak decline. This week, the overall market situation of n-propanol in Shandong Province showed a downward trend. Some n-propanol suppliers adjusted the price of n-propanol downward by 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the market of n-propanol in Shandong Province has widened. As of May 18, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7000-7800 yuan/ton. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing in China is still operating stably. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild. The downstream market of n-propanol mainly purchases according to volume, and new orders are generally traded. The n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of May 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 177350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 5 and fallen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a weak decline in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation.

In terms of supply: Recently, the Russian Nickel Association has been receiving goods one after another, and coupled with an increase in the output of domestic electrowinning nickel projects, the global low inventory pattern of pure nickel may be difficult to continue. In terms of secondary nickel, Indonesia’s newly invested production capacity has been released, and nickel iron continues to flow back, thus impacting the domestic market.

In terms of demand: The weak real estate sector has led to a decrease in stainless steel production. The demand for new energy vehicles also fell short of expectations. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China still maintain year-on-year growth, the production capacity of battery grade nickel sulfate has shown signs of excess. In addition, the relative advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery in price has reduced the demand for nickel.

In summary, macro data performance is poor, with fundamental nickel prices plummeting but downstream consumption not actively purchasing on dips. The increase in nickel element supply is exerting significant pressure on nickel prices, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

Silicon metal prices continued to decline this week, with high inventory and sluggish demand still being important factors constraining prices. At the same time, the rebound in precipitation in the southwest region and the expected increase in resumption of production are also factors contributing to the downward trend of the spot market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 15460 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.25% on a weekly basis. The futures market fell by -7.06% throughout the week, closing at 14150 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 15th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15100-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15300-15400 yuan/ton, with an average of 15350 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15700-15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

This week, the overall number of silicon metal furnaces was 283. As of May 12th, the silicon metal furnace rate was around 39.42%, with 144 furnaces in Xinjiang, 28 furnaces in Sichuan, and 24 furnaces in Yunnan. Under the current price, the pressure of losses for silicon factories continues to increase, and the supply in the northwest has slightly contracted. The precipitation in the southwest has rebounded, and the number of furnaces in Sichuan has started to increase, while there is currently no intention of opening furnaces in Yunnan.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend, with a significant decline in the market after the holiday. The domestic supply prices generally decreased by around 10000 to 15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream range of single crystal density for models of primary solar energy has reached 145000 to 165000 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, with most manufacturers maintaining normal operation and ample supply performance, with good demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a mainstream quotation of 18200 yuan/ton. The profit compression of aluminum alloy enterprises is significant, and the overall operating rate has declined.

The reference price of domestic silicone DMC market is 14500 yuan/ton. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market has not improved well, and downstream demand is cautious, with demand support still being mainly loose. There has been little change in the construction of organic silicon DMC, and there is still some pressure on the supply side in some regions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, downstream demand has not improved and there is a significant pressure to remove inventory. Currently, the overall supply of metallic silicon continues to exceed demand. At present, production costs in the southern region have decreased, and there is an expectation of resuming production and supply. It is expected that metal silicon will still have a weak downward trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6 to May 12, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene increased narrowly, from 5671.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5703.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.57%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures continued to decline on May 11th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.87 per barrel, a decrease of $1.69 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.98 per barrel, a decrease of $1.43 or 1.9%. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession, and the increase in the number of Americans who apply for unemployment benefits roughly has put pressure on the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 250 yuan/ton on May 8, 2023, and is currently at 7050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7170 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has experienced a decline in recent times, with a continuous decline for four weeks.

In terms of industrial chain: This week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, and overall declined. The downstream styrene market continued to decline, dragging down the external market of pure benzene. The pure benzene market overall declined this week, and there were rumors that Sinopec’s listed price had a downward expectation, which once again affected the market mentality. After the hydrogenation benzene festival, it followed the overall downward trend of pure benzene, and the current factory price in the main production area is around 6900-7050 yuan/ton.

The crude benzene market has performed differently this week. The Shandong region did not make any adjustments this week, but still implemented post holiday prices. The Shanxi region saw a slight increase in prices, and other price adjustment regions also had limited changes. On the supply side, coking enterprises have slightly declined in production this week, but overall they are still operating in the range of over 75%, and the supply of crude benzene is still relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises have slightly declined in construction this week, and under the influence of recent poor market performance, some enterprises have production reduction and maintenance plans in the future, and market demand is expected to decline in the future. Overall, the recent decline in crude oil has led to a narrow decline in the price of pure benzene due to the drag. Downstream demand is expected to be weak, and in the future, the business community predicts that the price of crude benzene will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, with room for decline.

Gold prices hit a new 10-year high

Gold prices hit a new 10-year high. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 452.75 yuan/g on May 5, 2023, 1.81% higher than the average price of the spot market before the festival, and 3.03% higher than the beginning of last month (April 1).

Silver rose 4.58% after the holiday, up 42.49% from its low point in the past year

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5839.33 yuan/kg on May 5, 2023, 4.58% higher than the average price of spot market before the festival, 10.18% higher than the beginning of last month (April 1), and 9.25% higher than the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1). The low point in the past year appeared on July 18, 2022, and the current price has increased by 42.49% compared to the low point.

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise.

Policy logic

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25BP in May, and Powell’s comments on further interest rate policy were dove like, leading to expectations of easing monetary policy tightening in the future. The end of the bearish period is a positive one; Coupled with the renewed concern over the US banking crisis during holidays, concerns about regional banks and debt ceilings in the US have led to an increase in market risk aversion, and precious metal prices have once again reached new highs. Overall, the short-term interest rate hike cycle is still ongoing, and the upward space for precious metals has always been constrained before the expected rate hike is falsified. The pullback in precious metal prices on Friday night trading was mainly due to stronger than expected US employment data, with non farm employment data showing that US employers increased their recruitment and wages in April. This has cooled market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Although Friday’s employment data will not lead to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June, it is enough to calm those who are eager for the Fed to cut rates soon. The longer US interest rates remain high, the more pressure they put on non interest bearing gold.

Fundamental logic

1. Domestic consumption of precious metals has improved

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in the first quarter of 2023 was 291.58 tons, an increase of 12.03% compared to the same period in 2022.

Among them: 189.61 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%; 83.87 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 20.47%; Industrial and other gold consumption reached 18.10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%.

2. Strong demand for central bank purchases

The global central bank’s gold purchase volume reached a record high of 1136 tons in 2022, and this trend is still continuing in 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, global central banks maintained net purchases of gold, with central banks and other institutions purchasing 228 tons of gold in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 176%. Among them, the Singapore Monetary Authority purchased 51.8 tons of gold in the first two months of this year; The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months from November 2022 to March 2023, with a total increase of 57.85 tons in the first quarter. By the end of March, China’s gold reserve had reached 2068.38 tons.

3. Year-on-year growth in domestic supply

In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic raw material gold production was 84.972 tons, an increase of 1.571 tons compared to the same period in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.88%. Among them, 66.506 tons of gold from gold minerals and 18.466 tons of non ferrous byproducts were produced. Among them, large gold enterprises (groups) produce 32.717 tons of mineral gold in their mines, accounting for 49.19% of the national total. Overseas mines such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold achieved a mineral gold output of 14.395 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.17%.

In addition, in the first quarter of 2023, the production of imported raw materials was 29.901 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.41%. If this part of the imported raw material production was added, a total of 114.873 tons of gold were produced nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%.

Increased probability of high consolidation of precious metals

At present, the price of precious metals has reached a new decade high. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to relatively full risk aversion, which has been basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

However, the economic vitality demonstrated by domestic consumption during the May holiday, coupled with China’s first quarter economic data growth of 4.5%, partially alleviated concerns about a global economic recession. Coupled with the high interest rate state of the Federal Reserve, this has to some extent suppressed the prices of non bearing asset precious metals.

It is expected that precious metal prices may experience weak upward trend in the short term, with high volatility and consolidation being the main trend, while they remain bullish in the medium to long term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the rare earth market fell sharply in April, and the trend of the domestic rare earth market declined. On April 27, the commodity price index BPI was 967 points, down 24 points from the first day, down 28.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1343 points (2021-10-19), and up 46.52% from the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have significantly decreased. As of the 28th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 540000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 13.94% in April; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 435000 yuan/ton, which decreased by 16.75% in April; The price of neodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 18.02% in April; The price of neodymium metal was 600000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 16.08% in April; The price of metal praseodymium was 610000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12.23% in April; The price of praseodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.95% in April.

In early April, the listed prices of rare earths in the northern region remained generally stable, with prices higher than market expectations. The light rare earths market stabilized after the decline, but the continued lack of downstream demand after the Qingming Festival intensified the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers, and the light rare earths market continued to decline. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be bearish on the short-term price of rare earth. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to fall.

The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium series in China has decreased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 1.905 million yuan/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of 8.19% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.875 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.09% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.63 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.07% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide prices of 8.4 million yuan/ton and metal terbium prices of 10.75 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, the downstream procurement is very cold, and the oversupply has caused the market price to fall. In addition, there is an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, and the supply of rare earth is sufficient. The recovery of the rare earth terminal industry is slow, and transactions are scarce. The rare earth market prices continue to decline.

According to statistics, although the demand for new energy vehicles is moderate, and the production and sales increased in March, the downstream permanent magnet procurement is very scarce, and the price of rare earth market is still not optimistic.

At the end of March, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023: the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2023 was 120000 tons, an increase of approximately 19% compared to last year, including 109057 tons of rock and mineral rare earth, an increase of 22% compared to last year; Ionic rare earth ore is 10943 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to last year. The mining output of rare earth has risen sharply, which has hit market confidence in some ways, and the price of rare earth has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is not good. In addition, the second quarter is gradually in the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline of the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.

In April, the butadiene rubber market rebounded slightly from a low point. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of butadiene rubber was 11380 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% from 11220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strengthened; In April, downstream tire factories started operating with a slight fluctuation, and support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was just needed but weak; In late April, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased slightly by 100 yuan/ton, and the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.

Supply side: In April, multiple enterprises of polybutadiene rubber stopped for maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side of polybutadiene rubber was relieved.

Cost side: In April, the price of butadiene slightly increased, while the cost side of butadiene rubber significantly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of butadiene was 8851 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from the 8551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the natural rubber market fell first and then rose, but remained at a low level, with a relatively negative impact on butadiene rubber. As of April 27th, the price was at 11530 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from 11526 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point during the cycle was at 11210 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Downstream tire production in April slightly increased compared to March, with a strong demand for rubber support but no significant increase. It is understood that as of mid April 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the raw material price has slightly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber has risen. In addition, many enterprises have significantly alleviated the pressure on production and supply, and the small fluctuations in downstream construction have a strong demand for support for butadiene rubber. In the short term, there is support for the butadiene rubber market, but there is still a lack of significant improvement in downstream construction. In addition, the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s butadiene rubber plant has also increased supply pressure to a certain extent, It is expected that there will be a significant upward trend in the later stage of polybutadiene rubber.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 10733 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11066 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.11%.

The factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in China ranges from 9600 to 12500 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer’s quotation has partially increased. The equipment of domestic coal based activated carbon production enterprises is operating normally, and the spot supply is relatively high compared to the annual average level. Market inquiries have increased, and transactions are improving.

The cost support for the upstream main raw materials of activated carbon, such as coconut shell, fruit shell, and charcoal, is stable. Downstream industries such as power and medicine are increasing in procurement, and demand is improving. The procurement for drinking water, water purification, and food industries is increasing, and the market atmosphere is good.

Prediction: Currently, the overall activated carbon market has sufficient supply and active procurement. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 21, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 4700 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.08%. Compared to April 1, 2023 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4800 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.17-4.21), the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a trend of first decline and then weak stabilization and consolidation. In mid to early April, domestic dimethyl carbonate on-site supply was tight, supported by tight spot supply, and the dimethyl carbonate market was operating in a narrow upward trend. However, due to the poor performance of downstream demand, some domestic dimethyl carbonate factories lowered the price of dimethyl carbonate by around 200-300 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. Subsequently, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate was weak, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The new orders were generally traded. As of April 21, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 4600-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is average, and the support provided to dimethyl carbonate is limited. Some factories have resumed operations before the holiday, and the supply side support on site is relatively loose. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, the downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate will increase, and it remains to be seen whether the transmission between supply and demand can be smooth. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at Business Society predicts that in the short term, The domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly subject to narrow range adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell, and the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall. On April 23, the rare earth index was 460 points, down 54.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and up 69.74% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have declined. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 570000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.56%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 470000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.57%; The price of neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.03%; The price of neodymium metal was 620000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 6.06%; The price of metal praseodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.44%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 475000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 2.06%.

Recently, the light rare earth market has continued to decline, and the buyer’s wait-and-see sentiment has intensified. Downstream demand has not yet recovered, and market information is still weak. The light rare earth market is constantly declining. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be short of the short-term price of rare earth. Affected by multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to decline.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is still acceptable. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 674000 and 653000 units in March, with a month on month increase of 22% and 24.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% and 34.8%, respectively. The market share reached 26.6%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased, the purchase of downstream permanent magnets is very rare, and the price of light rare earth is not optimistic.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is poor. In addition, the second quarter is gradually entering the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline in the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.

This week (April 17-23, 2023), cost stability was maintained and nylon filament prices were firm. The supply of nylon manufacturers is sufficient, and the downstream weaving industry is operating steadily. In some regions, some specifications are selling well, but the overall market is still in a state of oversupply. The actual transaction is discussed in detail according to the order.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of nylon filament was strong this week (April 17-23). As of April 23, 2023, the quotation for DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region was 18520 yuan/ton; The quotation for nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is 16250 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 19200 yuan/ton, which is consistent with last week’s price.

Upstream raw material market

This week (April 17-23, 2023), there is no significant change in the cost side. On April 21, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.78% in the price of caprolactam. There are changes in on-site devices, the supply expectation is tight, supporting the firm offer of manufacturers, the downstream polymerization plants are on the sidelines, the actual purchase is cautious, bargain hunting or small order follow up, and it is expected that in the short term, the market price of caprolactam, the raw material, will be dominated by narrow consolidation and operation.

Future prospects

At present, the price of nylon market is stable, the upstream raw material market is stabilized, and the cost support function is temporarily maintained. Nylon manufacturers have stable starting and production capacity. The production and sales of downstream and terminal markets have improved, but it is still unclear, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Business Society analysts expect the nylon filament market to operate steadily in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 198.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 36.13% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, but downstream procurement is weakened

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The price of downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 1835.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1828.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.34%. On weekends, prices have decreased by 22.14% compared to the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1080.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1030.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 4.63%. Overall, upstream support is good, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future Market Forecast

In late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. However, the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to be weak. From April 7 to 14, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell from 15280 yuan/ton to 15080 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.31%, 10.34% month on month and 18.49% year-on-year. Downstream demand side follow-up is weak, overall market confidence is insufficient, and the supply of goods is relatively abundant, with limited support for the market. The aggregated MDI market continues to be weak.

On the supply side, Shanghai Huntsman’s aggregated MDI price in April 2023 was 20000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged month on month. The MDI distribution channel of Wanhua Chemical Polymerization had a one-time price of 18000 yuan/ton in early April, which remained unchanged. The listing price of Aggregated MDI in April 2023 was 19800 yuan/ton, which remained stable month on month.

In terms of cost, raw material pure benzene: the price of domestic pure benzene market rose significantly, and the spot transaction was 7410-7500 yuan/ton; Shandong market price was 7200-7350 yuan/ton. The overall demand for pure benzene in the downstream has increased, and the short-term domestic pure benzene market is at a high level. Raw material aniline: expected domestic aniline to rebound slightly. The inventory of aniline is slow and the price has slightly increased. The cost side of aggregated MDI is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, the overall follow-up ability of the demand side is average, while downstream purchasing power is weak, and the overall downstream consumption capacity is still relatively limited. Short term aggregate MDI demand side support is insufficient.

In the future market forecast, the overall follow-up ability of the downstream industry is limited, and the short-term market lacks positive support. Business Society’s MDI analyst predicts that the domestic MDI market will continue to decline.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in March. The market price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 7500.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, a decrease of 5.33%; Later, it rose to 7633.33 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 7.51%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 50.96% compared to the same period last year. On March 30th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 38.75, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 28.65% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell first and then increased in March, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in March. The price of propylene dropped from 7522.60 yuan/ton on March 1 to 6948.60 yuan/ton on March 27, a decrease of 7.63%; Later, it rose to 7138.60 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 2.73%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 14.77% compared to the same period last year. Upstream cost support is average, with a slight increase in prices at the end of the month, which has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol first fell and then rose in March. The market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 11200.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 10600.00 yuan/ton on March 15, a decrease of 5.36%; Later, it rose to 10666.67 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 0.63%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 39.85% compared to the same period last year. The downstream market has slightly declined, but prices have increased at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early April, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream propylene prices slightly increased at the end of the month, with good cost support. At the end of the month, there is an upward trend in the downstream market for new pentanediol, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market in March increased slightly. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was 0.92% higher than the price of 4340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the year-on-year price was flat.

In March, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, and the situation of goods on the site was moderate. The manufacturer’s inventory was low. The terminal upstream coal price trend was stable, while the nitric acid price trend was rising, while the liquid ammonia price fell, and the downstream demand was moderate. The ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and downstream procurement is on demand. Recently, downstream procurement of nitro compound fertilizer has increased, while domestic procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has decreased. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5200-5300 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4200-4300 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

In March, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased, with the average domestic nitric acid price at the end of the month being 2533.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to the price of 2483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China quote 2700-2800 yuan/ton, while northern and central China quote 2400-2650 yuan/ton. The market has ample supply of goods, high price trading is under pressure, and high-end prices are often sold at reduced prices. However, downstream demand is relatively stable, supporting the supply and circulation of goods. The trend of rising prices in low price regions is still evident. The rising price of raw material nitric acid has formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly.

In March, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market declined, with the price of liquid ammonia reaching 4000 yuan/ton by the end of the month, down 8.88% from the price of 4390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, prices in main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Lianghu all fell, mainly due to an increase in supply, and the restart of some overhauled devices. The sentiment of rising supply affected manufacturers to lower prices. Moreover, there is little change in the downstream field of liquid ammonia, with general agricultural demand and just a need for stable industrial demand. The decline in upstream liquid ammonia prices has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate is limited.

Recently, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, coupled with the low market price of raw material liquid ammonia, but the price trend of nitric acid is relatively strong in the later period. The ammonium nitrate analyst from the business agency believes that the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable in the later period.

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, at the beginning of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5940.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, Shanxi’s industrial grade first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.62%. The current price has decreased by 18.79% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In March, the domestic potassium nitrate market fell. From the figure above, it can be seen that the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and falling for five consecutive months since 2023, and the market continues to decline this month. The raw material potassium chloride market has declined, with poor cost support. The potassium nitrate market has seen a light turnover and a decline in the market. According to statistics from the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 5500-5900 yuan/ton (for reference only), which varies depending on the procurement situation.

In March, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fluctuated and fell: currently, the market sales price of domestic potassium chloride 60% crystal is about 3200-3500 yuan/ton. In terms of imported potassium, the price of imported 62% white potassium is mostly 3300-3500 yuan/ton, and the price of large particle red potassium is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. “Border trade has seen the arrival of white potassium in succession, and the supply and sales of goods are slightly difficult. The surrounding manufacturers mainly purchase on demand, and the demand has significantly decreased.”. Currently, the price of 62% white potassium at ports is mostly 3100-3150 yuan/ton.

Currently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is in a weak downward trend, with poor cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall below in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

The price of o-xylene fluctuated and rose in March

According to the price trend chart of ortho xylene of the business community, as of March 29, the price of ortho xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50% compared to the price of ortho xylene of 8000 yuan/ton at the end of February 28 of last month. The market of orthoxylene industry chain was supported by rising prices, and the domestic orthoxylene market rose significantly in March.

The market of raw materials mixed with xylene fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene of the business agency, as of March 29, the price of mixed xylene was 7540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared to the price of mixed xylene of 7450 yuan/ton on March 1. The price waveform of mixed xylene was adjusted in March. Overall, the price of mixed xylene rose in March, with a strong upward momentum for orthoxylene.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community, as of March 29, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell. The overall market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, with increased support for ortho xylene.

Future prospects

Analysts from the business agency Orthoxylene Data believe that in March, the market in the upstream and downstream of the Orthoxylene industry chain fluctuated and increased, while the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride rose, with strong support for the rise of Orthoxylene. In the future, mixed xylene has limited upward support, phthalic anhydride prices are stagnant, and o-xylene costs have supported limited demand to stabilize temporarily. It is expected that the price of o-xylene in the future will fluctuate and stabilize.

Last week (March 20-26), downstream procurement was cautious, viscose staple fibers were generally quiet, and the factory was firm and stable in price. In the early stage, domestic high-end manufacturers announced that they would start rotating maintenance, which slightly boosted and supported the market. Some of the market just needed to sign orders, but the overall volume was not large. The startup rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, with the current overall industry load of about 77.68%. It is rumored in the market that a new round of price measures may be taken by major domestic factories at the end of the month, but the price adjustment intention of viscose factories is also relatively low, and the overall wait and see is the main factor.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 26, the factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13320 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous price.

Market of human cotton yarn

Last week (March 20-26), the downstream market for human cotton yarn continued to operate steadily. The downstream market for human cotton yarn was still mainly in need of procurement, and the transaction atmosphere was relatively general. The commencement of construction was basically maintained, and the recovery was not as expected. Currently, it is difficult for the end market demand to significantly improve, and it is also difficult for yarn enterprises to have a strong position. They should adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Society, as of March 26, the average ex-factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17666 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous price.

Aftermarket Forecast

The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market is limited. Large viscose staple fiber factories still focus on executing early orders. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, analysts from the Business News Agency predict that the prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn may continue to maintain stable operation in the short term, waiting for a new round of prices to be announced at the end of the month.

This week (March 17th to March 24th), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was reduced in a narrow range, resulting in a weak market atmosphere. The spot market price in East China was 16500 yuan/ton last weekend, down 0.3% from 16450 yuan/ton this weekend.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market continued to operate weakly, with manufacturers’ strong intention to hold down prices and focus on a small amount of replenishment, leading to a relatively sluggish market trading atmosphere. Recently, resource costs in Gabon have been low when arriving at Hong Kong. At the same time, after the decline in spot prices, traders’ financial pressure has increased, and their willingness to cash out has gradually increased, with a relatively clear trend of low price shipping. Tianjin Port Macao Block: 45 yuan/ton, Gabon: 41.2 yuan/ton, South Africa semi carbonated carbon: 33.1 yuan/ton. Qinzhou Port – Macao Block: 45 yuan/ton, Gabon: 41.3 yuan/ton, South Africa: 34.3 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. As can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, and after a slight increase in prices at the end of August, it has continued to stabilize temporarily. After a slight recovery in prices at the end of September, prices have remained stable for a long time since October, fluctuated slightly in November, decreased slightly after December, and continued to decline slightly after a temporary stabilization in January.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese has temporarily stabilized this week, reaching 2450 US dollars per ton as of March 24th, with a decrease of 100 US dollars per ton during the cycle. Recently, the market negotiation atmosphere is limited and there is strong wait-and-see sentiment.

This week, the domestic electrolytic manganese market continued to operate weakly, with the mainstream price in the domestic market ranging from 15000 to 15200 yuan/ton. The mainstream domestic factory price is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The market still maintains on-demand procurement, with overall trading slightly cold. This round of steel bidding basically went down, dragging down the market mentality and causing a slight decline in market prices. From a comprehensive perspective, downstream purchasing intentions have always been low, and market trading and investment are not active, and demand is still weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the overall market is weak, and it is difficult to achieve significant improvement in the short term. It is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will remain weak in the future.

This week, the silicon and manganese market has been operating weakly and steadily, with both north and south profits at low levels, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, and a gradually widening cost gap among various companies. Prices in the north have eased slightly, with a month-on-month decrease of around 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The south is relatively strong. The futures market is operating in a narrow range of volatility, with its trading trend initially subdued and then rising. According to the price monitoring conducted by the Business Agency, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was around 7000-7150 yuan/ton on March 24th, with an average market price of 7116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23%.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap, and powder (electrolytic manganese) in January 2023 was approximately 32683.5 tons, up 31.1% from December. In January 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese scrap and powder (electrolytic manganese) was about 2200.5 tons, down about 56.02% from December.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak and declining. From March 17th to 24th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9516 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.18%. The price rose 0.71% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 15.43%. The spot price of raw material pure benzene is weak and volatile, and cost support has weakened. At the same time, some manufacturers have increased supply, while downstream demand is general. The industry’s mentality is weak, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market has fallen.

On the cost side, the domestic market price of pure benzene has increased slightly, and the output has decreased. The pure benzene in East China port has been removed from the warehouse, and there are still maintenance plans for the supply devices in the later stage, easing the pressure on the domestic supply of pure benzene. Spot transaction: 6990-7180 yuan/ton; The Shandong market price traded at 6960-7070 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the unit operating rate of the cyclohexanone industry remained at around 70% this week, with a slight increase in supply.

On the demand side, caprolactam prices fell. The recent weakening of upstream crude oil prices has affected the purchasing mentality in the downstream market. The overall caprolactam market is still cautious. In addition, some enterprises in the north have increased inventory pressure and partially reduced prices for sales. The overall price center of the cyclohexanone spot market is tending to be lower. The demand side for cyclohexanone was negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, cyclohexanone analysts from the business agency predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market volatility will be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. On March 13th, the market price of aniline was 12600 yuan/ton, and on March 17th, the price was 13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.55% compared to last week.

2、 Analytical Review

Pure benzene market: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated and fell, with insufficient support for the market price of styrene. The offer for pure benzene moved downward, with limited transaction volume. Shandong Refinery is not willing to hold goods, actively adjusting prices to promote shipment, and the overall market price has moved downward. In February, due to centralized maintenance in the downstream, the market supply was relatively abundant, and prices were expected to be weak and volatile. On Thursday (March 16th), the price of pure benzene was 7208 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week and 12.09% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price was 2483 yuan/ton, and on March 16, the price was 2467 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 4.73% compared to last week, and increased by 12.04% compared to the same period last year.

“There is less supply and more demand for aniline, and there is no significant expectation of a short-term decline in the raw material pure benzene. It is expected that the aniline market will be strong in February.”.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

The logic of the aniline market fluctuation still lies in the supply and demand side. With the upcoming implementation of the planned overhaul in Jinling, the supply in the north will continue to enter a tight pattern. It is expected that the aniline market will be strong in the next cycle, or there will be expectations of continued growth.

Overview of price trend of metal magnesium

Market analysis of this week

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of the 20th, the average market price of magnesium ingots in China was 20600 yuan/ton, down 1.28% on a weekly basis. This week, the domestic magnesium ingot market continued to be weak, and the price of magnesium was affected by demand. The quotation was continuously lowered, with a decrease of around 300 yuan/ton.

Factory side

At present, the market sentiment is in a wait-and-see state, with few inquiries and a weak market transaction atmosphere. The manufacturer has a strong bearish sentiment and is positive in allowing prices and shipping, but the actual transaction situation is not ideal. Some manufacturers are unwilling to reduce their prices due to high production costs, and some choose not to quote for the time being.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 7592 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The ferrosilicon market is experiencing a situation of oversupply, while domestic and foreign demand is average. Due to an increase in electricity costs of around 0.2 yuan/kWh in the main production areas, the production enthusiasm of factories in some production areas has decreased, some manufacturers have avoided peak production, and some have reduced furnace shutdowns.

The blue charcoal market is operating steadily and weakly. Some blue charcoal enterprises have lowered their prices by 40-100 yuan/ton, while the rest of the market has not been adjusted, and will continue to adjust in the near future.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the inventory pressure of magnesium plants is significant, and the market demand is cold. The manufacturers have no choice but to reduce prices and sell goods. Superimposed by weak shocks in the raw material market and many negative factors, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will remain weak in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell slightly this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of acetic anhydride was 5275 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from 5300 yuan/ton on March 10; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 0.24% compared to 5262.50 yuan/ton on March 1. The price of raw materials fell and cost support was insufficient. The price of acetic anhydride fell slightly this week.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell this week

As can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart of the business community, as of March 20, the acetic acid price was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the acetic acid price of 3283.33 yuan/ton on March 3; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 1.59% compared to 3150 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell. This week, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell. The cost of acetic anhydride was not supported by rising costs. The upward momentum of acetic anhydride weakened and the downward pressure increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the Business Club, as of March 20, the methanol price was 2633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared to the price of 2620.83 yuan/ton on March 10. This week, methanol prices fluctuated and consolidated, the cost of acetic acid stabilized, and the price of raw materials for carbonyl acetic anhydride stabilized. However, downward pressure on acetic anhydride remained.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business News Agency’s acetic anhydride data believe that the price of acetic acid has fluctuated and fallen this week, while the price of methanol has fluctuated and consolidated, resulting in a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride. In the future, there is still pressure on the cost of acetic anhydride to decline, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize due to fluctuations in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 16440 yuan/ton. Compared to the March 12, 2023 (silicone DMC reference price 16960 yuan/ton) price, the price was reduced by 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, this week (3.13-3.17), the overall domestic silicone DMC market showed a continuous weak decline. During the week, Shandong large factories successively lowered the shipment price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative decrease of around 800 yuan/ton during the week. Other factories also mostly followed the decline in organosilicon DMC quotations. As of March 17, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price reference was around 16000-16800 yuan/ton.

The main factor affecting the market trend of organosilicon DMC is demand. Currently, the overall downstream demand for organosilicon DMC is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is slow. The lack of follow-up on new orders is difficult to support the relatively high price of organosilicon DMC after its early rise. Therefore, the overall market situation of organosilicon DMC has eased and declined.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

Currently, although the supply side of silicone DMC has been actively regulated, the overall supply side on the market is still on the high side. The supply side has given some pressure, and the overall supply and demand support is relatively weak. According to the silicone DMC data analyst of the business agency, in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mostly be adjusted and operated in a weak and narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the BDO market continued to decline. From March 6 to 10, the domestic BDO price fell from 13160 yuan/ton to 12780 yuan/ton, and the price fell 2.89% in the cycle, 5.45% month-on-month and 55.25% year-on-year.

Some BDO devices were overhauled, and the market supply was reduced. At the same time, the bidding price of the factory was high, and the production enterprises were strong. However, due to the sluggish follow-up of terminal demand, most downstream industries are under pressure on costs, and have a weak intention to purchase raw materials and seriously depress prices. The decrease in supply did not offset the downturn in demand, and the focus of the market continued to decline.

In terms of cost, raw calcium carbide: the demand is low, the market performance of oversupply is gradually strengthened, and the market situation of calcium carbide is sluggish. In terms of methanol, the cost support is temporarily stable and the supply is relatively abundant. The methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. BDO’s cost side is negative.

On the supply side, the bidding and transaction of the factory side are fair, and the production enterprises mainly keep the price. BDO has a good supply side.

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream industry was average, and the contradiction between supply and demand appeared, which aggravated the cautious bearish sentiment in the market. Nearly 80% of the PTMEG-spandex industry chain industry has started, and the overall digestion is good. The shutdown and maintenance of Kaixiang chemical plant in the PBT industry have not changed much since the commencement; The PU slurry and TPU industries in the polyurethane field started around 50% to 60%, and the orders just need to be followed up. The demand for short-term BDO is not significantly positive.

According to the aftermarket forecast, although the maintenance supply of the manufacturing enterprises has decreased, and the bidding price has remained in a state of price keeping, the demand-side performance continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, which suppresses the market trend. BDO analysts of the Business Agency predict that the domestic BDO market will be adjusted at a low level.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8233 yuan/ton, which was 2.95% lower than the average ex-factory price of 8483 yuan/ton on March 6.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8200 yuan/ton, which was 0.20% higher than the average market price of 8183 yuan/ton on March 6.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of March 10, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8200 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7500-8900 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer issued many early orders, and the overall market delivery and investment situation was general. Downstream procurement is prudent, and replenishment is mainly needed, and new orders are limited. As of March 10, the price quoted in Guizhou is about 29000-32000 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market overall ushered in a small rise. With the coming of the spring planting season, the demand for phosphate fertilizer downstream of the phosphate rock terminal will also gradually increase. The demand side will give more support to the phosphate rock. The supply in the phosphate rock field will continue to be tight. With the joint support of supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate rock market will continue to close up.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was poor, and the market transactions were light. At present, phosphoric acid enterprises mainly supply orders from old customers, and terminal demand needs to be released.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the market of raw material yellow phosphorus has been in a bad trend recently, and the phosphoric acid market is dominated by wait-and-see. At present, the market has light trading volume and few transactions. In the case of weak cost and demand, it is expected that the price of thermal phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 176.00 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decline was 44.35%. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on March 12 was 46.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.41% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 157.62% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream support is good, and downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from 1925.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1902.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.17%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 19.64% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride is high, and the market price is 1205.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is good, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late March, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has a downward trend over the weekend, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

The propane market in Shandong continued to decline this week. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton on March 10, and 5835 yuan/ton on March 10, with a decline of 1.1% in the week, down 24.1% from the same period last year.

As of March 10, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ March 10th

East China/ 5850-5950 yuan/ton

North China/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

Northeast China/ 5750-5850 yuan/ton

This week (3.6-3.10), Shandong propane market continued its decline, with the decline in the north greater than that in the south. The overall performance of the domestic propane market this week was weak, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Most of the mainstream market prices followed the market, and the upstream shipping willingness was obvious. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of Shandong propane market is 5750-5850 yuan/ton.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in March 2023, and propane was 720 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane is 740 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars/ton from last month.

In general, the import market is weak, the downstream products are not profitable, and the market is still bearish. It is expected to enter the weak and volatile operation of propane market next week.