According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 2, the average price of PMMA was 17233.33 yuan / ton, the market maintained stable operation, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers maintained about 17000 yuan / ton, the negotiation center was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the short-term stable trend was maintained.

PMMA runs smoothly with general transaction atmosphere. Some manufacturers are tight in supply of spot goods. The price of upstream MMA is high with upward trend, and low price is hard to find. It is mainly just need to purchase, and the price has a certain supporting effect on the cost of PMMA.

On June 1, the rubber and plastic index was 779 points, 2 points lower than yesterday, 26.51% lower than 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 47.54% higher than 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present.

PMMA business analysts believe that: in the short term, PMMA stable operation, price fluctuations（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Recent trend of calcium carbide price

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. The average price of the factory quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of Northwest calcium carbide fell from 4550.00 yuan / ton on May 24 to 4416.67 yuan / ton on May 28, down 133.33 yuan / T, or 2.93%, up 66.51% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market for calcium carbide fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index of 115.72 on May 28.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream maintenance increases, and the purchasing willingness decreases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: ovicana energy offered 4500 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of carbide of Inner Mongolia China Federation this weekend is 4450 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping of Ningxia is 4300 yuan / ton this weekend, which is down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the upstream raw material market, the factory quotation of Lancang fell sharply this week. The price of small materials is 1100 yuan / ton this weekend, which is down 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The quotation of Chinese materials this weekend is 1200 yuan / ton, which is down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The price of bulk materials is 1300 yuan / ton this weekend, which is down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The upstream raw material price has fallen sharply, and the cost support is weakened, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices this week fell slightly. PVC quotation this week fell from 9200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9162.50 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.41%, up 49.90% compared with the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, the market was general, and the increase in PVC maintenance, the downstream enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and overall, it seems that the PVC market this week has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Demand is reduced, and the market is slightly shaken down

In early June, the calcium carbide market was mainly subject to a small fluctuation. The raw material, orchid carbon prices, fell sharply, and the cost support of calcium carbide was weakened. Downstream PVC maintenance increased, market market began to decline slightly. The market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will fall slightly in early June.

Recovery of cobalt Market

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated and rose in May, and the cobalt price bottomed out and rebounded. As of May 31, the price of cobalt was 351000.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 345000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1). Cobalt price bottomed out and rebounded. Cobalt market rebounded.

Domestic cobalt market demand

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, from January to April 2021, the total domestic mobile phone market shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. However, compared with the increase of 92.8%, 240.9% and 65.9% in the first three months, the overall domestic mobile phone shipment in April showed a year-on-year decline of 34.1%.

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 216000 and 206000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.8 times respectively. In terms of power battery output, in April 2021, the output of ternary battery in China was 6.7gwh, accounting for 51.9% of the total output of power battery, with a year-on-year increase of 134.3% and a month on month increase of 15.1%; From January to April, the total output of ternary battery was 24.5gwh, accounting for 53.6% of the total output of power battery, with a year-on-year cumulative increase of 185.8%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have increased greatly, which is good for the cobalt market. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased in April on a month on month basis, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected. In terms of ternary batteries, the proportion of ternary batteries declined in April, and the output growth of ternary batteries slowed down. Overall, in terms of new energy vehicles and power batteries, the demand of cobalt market rose, but the rise was less than expected. The rising power of cobalt market was less than expected, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakened.

According to customs statistics, in April, the output of mobile phones was 130 million, up 13.5% year on year; The output of microcomputer equipment was 35.9 million, up 13.5% year on year. From January to April, China exported 71.35 million laptops, up 72.3% year on year; 310 million mobile phones were exported, up 30.8% year on year. The output of electronic products has increased greatly, and the export has also increased rapidly. The good performance of the electronic products industry has stimulated the surge of demand in the cobalt market, and there is sufficient momentum for the future rise of the cobalt market.

Global cobalt market demand

According to the report of global mobile phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 released by strategy analytics, a statistical agency, the global smart phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 was 340 million, an increase of 24% over the same period last year, reaching a new high since 2015. On May 23, CITIC Securities released a research report forecast that, looking forward to the second quarter and the whole year of 2021, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of smartphone shipment may slow down, and the annual global smartphone shipment is expected to be 1.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%; It was originally expected that the global smartphone shipment in 2021 will be 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The growth of mobile phone sales has stimulated the demand of cobalt market, but the global mobile phone shipment is expected to decline, which may have a negative impact on the demand expectation of cobalt Market in the future, and the downward pressure of cobalt Market in the future will increase.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the new energy automobile industry and mobile phone industry performed strongly in the past 21 years, and the production and sales volume increased greatly in the first quarter, which stimulated the cobalt market to rise sharply; However, with the impact of India’s epidemic situation and chip shortage, the growth of new energy vehicle and mobile phone industry slowed down in the second quarter, and there was a partial downward trend. The demand of cobalt market was lower than expected, and the cobalt market was dragged down, and the cobalt price began to fluctuate slightly in March; But on the whole, there is still room for cobalt market demand to rise, and affected by the epidemic, cobalt freight and mining costs increase, cobalt costs rise, cobalt market decline space is limited. In the future, the cost of cobalt market remains high, the space for cobalt price to fall is limited, the demand of cobalt market is difficult to meet the expectation, and the power for cobalt price to rise is insufficient. Cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

17 000-20 000 yuan / ton interval oscillation operation

Affected by the news that the regulatory authorities recently interviewed key enterprises in the black and nonferrous industries, on May 24, the nonferrous plate fell as a whole, and the price of Shanghai aluminum futures fell by more than 3%. The market sentiment was suppressed. Although the recent macro bad news on the commodity market to form a certain pressure, but aluminum fundamentals remain strong. Among them, the social inventory has further declined, the downstream rigid demand has maintained a strong trend, and the supply side favorable factors still exist in the later period. At present, the market inflection point has not appeared, and the favorable factors support the aluminum price, so it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic in the short term.

Macro multi space interweaving

The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has not yet turned, which has a certain support for the commodity market. According to the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, many officials are ready to start to consider adjusting monetary policy, but the employment data depresses the expectation of economic recovery, which is not enough for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in the short term. Among them, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 266000 after the quarterly adjustment in April, far less than the market expectation of increasing by 1 million, and less than the previous value of 916000.

At home, the government has clearly proposed to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of bulk commodities, and comprehensively curb the unreasonable rise of commodity prices. Affected by this bad news, the industrial product market fell sharply. In the short term, the official initiative triggered the market’s expectation of the later policy regulation to rise, and the commodity market sentiment showed signs of cooling down.

Supply side tightening expectations still exist

Since the first quarter, the aluminum supply side has rebounded significantly. According to the latest data, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.35 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% and a month on month growth of 3.9%, while the output in April 2020 only increased by 1.5% year on year. From January to April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 13.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. It can be seen that with the aluminum industry profits remain high, the upstream supply side shows obvious signs of recovery.

On May 13, the national development and Reform Commission held a video conference to remind some provinces and cities that the energy consumption intensity did not decrease but increased in the first quarter, which raised the expectation that the market would further strengthen the dual control of energy consumption.

According to statistics, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang is about 16.91 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the current domestic production capacity. Among them, Yunnan and Guangxi are the main provinces with new electrolytic aluminum production capacity this year. It is expected that the dual control of energy consumption will delay the upstream production schedule, especially affect the later production schedule of new capacity. In addition, last week’s drought in Yunnan will slow down the production of electrolytic aluminum.

According to ALD’s comprehensive assessment, the current operating capacity of Yunnan Province is 3.92 million tons, which is estimated to be between 600000-780000 tons due to the direct shutdown of the tank from the middle of this month to the end of this month. On the whole, although the high profits of the industry have been stimulating the supply side to pick up, the expectation of supply side disturbance still exists in the later stage, but the influence degree is uncertain.

The effect of traditional peak season is obvious

At present, the downstream construction has maintained a good situation. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic downstream construction profile enterprises was 62.07% in April and is expected to be 60% in May; 36% in April and 62% in May; The operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises was 81.64% in April and 81% in May; The operating rate of aluminum alloy A356 enterprises in April was 54.51%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.61%. Industry feedback is now in the peak season of aluminum consumption. Although aluminum prices continue to rise, leading to rising cost side, and enterprises have a strong fear of high prices, terminal orders have been relatively full, and there are still many optimists about future prices. As the inflection point of the consumer side has not arrived, rigid demand still exists, short-term aluminum prices should not be pessimistic.

As of May 24, the data showed that the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 990000 tons, 30000 tons lower than last week, which was lower than the level of the same period in recent three years from a seasonal point of view. Since the beginning of April, the decline rate of aluminum ingot inventory shows signs of slowing down. In terms of aluminum bars, the mainstream processing cost of aluminum bars in South China has risen to 780-880 yuan / ton, and the highest price in the market has risen to more than 1000 yuan / ton recently, reflecting the stable demand in the downstream. According to the feedback of profile enterprises, the inventory of raw materials is low and the downstream orders are saturated, but the current high price affects the willingness of enterprises to replenish the warehouse. Once the aluminum price falls, the enterprises will prepare the warehouse.

To sum up, in the near future, there will be some bad news in the macro aspect, but the consumption in the industrial end will maintain stability, and the lower aluminum price will probably stimulate the lower reaches to buy on bargain hunting and lock in the cost. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 17000-20000 yuan / ton from May to June, and downstream enterprises can consider buying on the cheap to lock in the cost（ Author’s unit: China CITIC construction investment Futures Co., Ltd

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of bromine is running at a high level. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 42125 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 43125 yuan / ton, up 2.37% and 44.82% compared with the same period last year. On May 27, the bromine commodity index was 149.56, up 0.88 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 153.84% from 58.92 points on October 29, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine level is high and firm, and the current mainstream price of enterprises is about 43000-45000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is relatively strong as a whole. The bromine market in Shandong Province is in short supply. The bromine enterprises have not started operation for a long time. The bromine production growth is relatively slow. The overall market supply is tight. The downstream flame retardants and intermediates procurement are acceptable, which supports the bromine price. Most bromine manufacturers have the intention to support the price, and the low price is hard to find.

Raw materials: the domestic sulfur market runs smoothly, and refineries in various regions offer stable prices according to their own shipment situation. Domestic individual refinery maintenance, regional refinery inventory is low, downstream traders enter the market to purchase on demand, external price is strong. The performance of downstream phosphate fertilizer is stable, there is no intention of low price shipment in the spot market, and the trend is good, which has a good support for the sulfur market. It is expected that the sulfur market will run smoothly in the future, and attention will be paid to the follow-up situation of downstream.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the overall supply of bromine is insufficient. Now the bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries just need support. Bromine enterprises are relatively smooth in shipment, the focus of transaction is moving up, and the low price is hard to find. It is expected that the bromine price will be high and firm in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 27, the average price of PMMA, a domestic general transparent high-grade product, was 17233.33 yuan / ton, and the market remained weak and stable. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 17000 yuan / ton. The negotiation center was stable, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The transaction atmosphere was light, and the stable trend was maintained in the short term.

The price of MMA in the upstream fell, the demand follow-up was insufficient, and the merchants actively shipped. At present, the inventory is normal and there is no pressure, and the actual transaction volume is limited. The chemical industry index was 1047 points on May 26, down 3 points from yesterday, down 3.41% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.08% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

PMMA analysts of business news agency believe that: upstream downward trend, insufficient cost support, general downstream demand, flat negotiation atmosphere, and stable operation of PMMA price in the short term（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of May 25, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16800 yuan / ton, up 1.2% from the beginning of this month and 15.86% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of May 25, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 22933.33 yuan / ton, up 1.47% from the beginning of the month and 12.79% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of refrigerant R22 rose slightly in May. In the first half of the month, the price trend was relatively stable. In the second half of the month, driven by the rising price of raw material methane chloride, the quotation of enterprises increased steadily. Near the end of the month, the number of enterprises increased and the market center moved up. With the increase of temperature, the downstream demand has increased to a certain extent, but due to the influence of environmental protection policies and other factors, the demand has not increased significantly, so it is difficult to support the sharp rise of R22 price. As of the 25th, R22 market quotation was mainly in the range of 15600-17500 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation was about 16800-17500 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation was about 15600-16800 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation was about 15800-16300 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation was about 16500 yuan / ton, Shanxi quotation was about 17000 yuan / ton, and prices in various regions were stable and rising.

In May, refrigerant R134a market was generally stable, with some rising., The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fell, but the trichloroethylene market heard that the price continued to rise, the cost side support was strong, the R134a market was strong, the current demand for vehicles was relatively stable, the offer of goods holders was high, and the trading center moved up. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 23000-23500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 23500-25000 yuan / ton, Shanxi quotation is about 24500 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 24000 yuan / ton, the price center of each region moves up.

In terms of raw materials, on May 25, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9400-9800 yuan / ton, and the factory price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was normal, and the supply of goods in the yard was stable. Affected by the high price of fluorite, the market of downstream refrigerants was temporarily stable in the near future, and mainly purchased on demand in the yard. It is expected that the price in the yard will decline slightly in the later stage.

Trichloromethane, on May 25, the market of methane chloride in Shandong was sorted out, and the quotation of manufacturers was adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 4050 ~ 4060 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 4170 ~ 4250 yuan / ton. The downstream made a small number of inquiries and received orders according to the demand.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerant analysts of business news agency believe that the current rise in raw material prices supports the rise in refrigerant prices. With the increase in temperature, the downstream demand has increased to a certain extent, and the support is fair. It is expected that R22 and R134a will still be strong in the short term, and there is no lack of upward expectations.

On May 25, the sulfur commodity index was 85.78, up 0.73 points from yesterday, down 17.39% from 103.84 points (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 232.61% from 25.79 points, the lowest point on February 24, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 1563.33 yuan / ton, up 0.86%. Refineries in various regions of China adjusted their prices according to their own shipment situation. The quotations of solid and liquid sulfur were all increased, with different increases in different regions. The overall sulfur market was strong and upward. Sinopec increased solid and liquid sulfur by 20 yuan / ton in North China; The price of liquid sulfur in Shandong increased by 20-30 yuan / ton; The price of liquid sulfur in East China was increased by 50 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of solid sulfur prices in various regions are as follows:

region varieties May 24th May 25th Up and down

East China Sulfur (particle) 1600-1660 yuan / ton 1640-1700 yuan / ton forty

North China Sulfur (particle) 1460-1530 yuan / ton 1480-1550 yuan / ton twenty

Shandong Province Sulfur (particle) 1500-1550 yuan / ton 1500-1550 yuan / ton 0

In terms of sulphuric acid, the domestic market is differentiated, the price in Shandong is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the market trading is weak. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the market demand was stable, the export order of Monoammonium was good, and the domestic demand was weak. Last week, the operating rate of enterprises decreased and the market price rose; The domestic market of diammonium is weak and stable, the demand is general, and the support for sulfur is weak.

Future forecast: at present, the price of domestic sulfur market is strong, domestic refineries maintain low inventory operation, and individual refineries overhaul, the attitude of on-site shippers is good, and sulfur enterprises ship smoothly. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be stable and wait-and-see.

1、 Price trend

According to the data on the big list of business agencies, toluene prices rose first and then fell this week, and overall, they fell from last week. On May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (May 23) was 5926 yuan / ton, down 60.2 yuan / ton, or 0.5% from last week; It was 65.55 per cent higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The prophase good news is not supported enough, downstream demand is still weak, toluene prices rose first and then fell this week. On the external market, the European aromatics unit was restarted and supply increased, which led to the decline of the Asian external market. As of May 21, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was 767 USD / T, up 2 USD / T, or 0.26% in the week, compared with May 14; The price of toluene imported from East China was US $789 / T, up $1 / T, or 0.13% in the week, on May 14.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose first and then fell continuously during the week. In the early stage, driven by the optimistic prospect of demand recovery in Europe and the United States, international oil prices rose; However, we heard that the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have made progress, and the market is worried about the supply of crude oil or the increase of bad oil price, so the oil price turns down. Compared with May 14, Brent fell by $2.15/barrel, or 3.11%; WTI fell $1.78 per barrel, or 2.72%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI prices in East China are continuous, with domestic products of 14000 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from last week, up 27.27% compared with the same period last year. Domestic market is weak operation, market offer is low, the mentality of the industry is short, the atmosphere of on-site trading and investment is weak, downstream inquiry is low, the shipment is not smooth, TDI market is rigid and tidy.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price this week remained stable, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, 60% year-on-year. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market. As of May 21, the closing prices in Asia were US $814-816 / T FOB Korea and US $832-834 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The recent nuclear discussions in the United States and Iran may be negative for oil prices. The crude oil market is full of uncertainty and may decline in the short term. The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, toluene is still weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of blending price of crude oil and gasoline, the maintenance of toluene plant, the arrival volume of toluene in the later period and the influence of downstream demand on the price of toluene

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which remained flat compared with the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 60%. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable this week.

In recent years, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, and the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, some overseas plants are still under maintenance, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high due to the impact. As of the 20th, the closing prices in Asia were 827-829 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 845-847 US dollars / ton CFR China. The operating rate of PX unit in Asia has not changed much recently. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is general, and the closing price of PX unit in Asia is declining, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is temporarily stable.

This week, the trend of crude oil price dropped sharply, and the international oil price continued to drop for three consecutive days. The settlement price of the main contract in WTI crude oil futures market of the United States is at US $61.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market is at US $65.11/barrel, The epidemic situation in India has slowed down the pace of demand recovery. Crude oil prices fell sharply this week, while domestic petrochemical products prices of likong were affected, and the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market continued to decline, and domestic PTA spot market fell. As of the 21st, the average price of PTA market was 4600-4650 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.37% this week. The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the cost support was poor. Recently, the PTA plant has been overhauled and restarted, and the supply side has increased. This week, the PTA operation rate is about 85%. The PTA delivery situation is general, and the price is high. Polyester production and sales fell again, European and American epidemic counterattack and Xinjiang cotton products export pressure is still large, follow-up orders weak. The profits of domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning process. The lower reaches of the textile industry do not have a high acceptance of the fabric price rise, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is a certain uncertainty in the current cost side, the short-term crude oil price has a downward trend, and the downstream PTA and textile market has a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will be stable in the later period, but there is no lack of possibility of a downward trend.

Since May, the overall trend of propane market has been weak, with Shandong propane Market falling most obviously, and the recent price has been declining continuously. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane Market in Shandong Province was 4440.75 yuan / ton on May 13 and 4293.25 yuan / ton on May 19, with a decrease of 3.32% during the period and 4.93% compared with April 1.

As of May 19, the mainstream propane prices in different regions of China are as follows:

region Specifications May 19th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4100-4400 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4400-4500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4200-4350 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4000-4050 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4500-4510 yuan / ton

In fact, after entering the middle of April, the propane market began to decline. Recently, the market was dominated by negative factors, and the price was weakening one after another, especially in Shandong market. In the international market, with the introduction of Saudi Aramco CP in May, there was a sharp drop in the cost of imported gas and a bad market attitude. In terms of international crude oil, the support to the market brought by the recent volatile decline of international crude oil is limited. On the demand side, with the rising weather and temperature, terminal consumption slows down, the replenishment cycle of downstream is extended, and the attitude is more cautious, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is general. The northern market upstream shipment blocked, inventory gradually increased, successive downward price yield shipment. At present, the transaction atmosphere of southern market is relatively mild, and most of them are stable.

In the international crude oil market, on May 19, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $63.35/barrel, down by US $2.15 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $66.66/barrel, down by US $2.05 or 3.0%. Although the US EIA inventory data released last week on Wednesday was positive, the growth of crude oil inventory was not as expected, and gasoline inventory decreased more than expected. However, oil prices fell by more than 3% on concerns that the surge in new cases in Asia will further depress demand for crude oil and that US inflation will increase the probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in May that all propane and butane were reduced. Propane was 495 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with last month; Butane is 475 US dollars / ton, down 55 US dollars / ton from last month.

At present, there are many negative factors in the market. The price of propane in Shandong has dropped to about 4300 yuan / ton. With the price decreasing, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has not improved significantly. In the later stage, the temperature continues to rise, the terminal demand is still expected to weaken, and the current upstream inventory pressure is increasing, so it is expected that the propane market price will still weaken in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 19, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4716.67 yuan / ton. The manufacturers were active in shipping, the upstream support was general, the downstream just needed to purchase, the operating rate was normal, the negotiation atmosphere was flat, the mainstream price range was 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable overall trend with stable price. The main contract orders are the main ones, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is flat. The number of new orders is limited. Most of the new orders are mainly discussed. The merchants have a stable mentality and general negotiation atmosphere. The merchants are cautious in taking the goods and slow in shipping. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, the shipping is normal, and the inventory is general.

Chemical industry index: on May 18, the chemical industry index was 1068 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 1.48% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 78.60% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

According to the silica analysts of business news agency, the downstream demand power is insufficient, and the rising trend information is not obvious. In the short term, the domestic silica market price is stable, the inventory is normal, the main supply is contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited（ If you want to know more about the industry chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get the information and grasp the price.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 5866 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable.

2、 Market analysis

On May 11, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax is 5700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 6200 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last time. Paraformaldehyde market is fair, mainly used in pesticide resin. Boosted by the rise of raw material methanol, some manufacturers increased the quotation of paraformaldehyde.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2680 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%. The spot market of methanol is also rising. The main production areas in Northwest China drive the spot price of methanol in other regions to continue to rise. The supply and demand of raw coal is tight, which promotes the cost of coal to methanol.

3、 Future forecast

Methanol rose, business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect polyoxymethylene or will rise.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (May 17): 2273.33 yuan / ton

On May 17, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 30 yuan / ton, or 1.34%, compared with the quotation on May 14. The prices of upstream natural gas and coal have risen sharply recently, with good cost support. Demand side: the agricultural demand in various regions has been carried out in succession; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them were used as they were mined, and the manufacturers had less inventory. Supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price on February 28 was about 576.75 yuan / ton, and on May 13 was about 997.5 yuan / ton, up 72.95% and 110.67% over the same period last year. On May 13, the steam coal commodity index was 120.18, up 2.41 points from yesterday, down 3.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 168.86% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the price of steam coal began to rise. First, the safety inspection of the main production areas at the supply side was strengthened, and the super capacity production was strictly restricted. The shortage of coal management tickets restricted the supply. The mining areas in Shaanxi maintain a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance due to the coal management ticket in Inner Mongolia increases and the supply decreases. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance increased, and the overall mine inventory was small. Platforms and traders have high purchasing enthusiasm, and coal is in a tight state. Second, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas picked up, and the inventory maintained a slow decline. However, the industrial power consumption is dominant and the daily consumption is high. Some data show that the number of days of coal inventory available in the national key power plants is about 14 days. Downstream trading atmosphere is relatively strong, power plants also began to accept high price coal, receiving goods is also more positive than before, transaction increased.

After May Day, the average market price of steam coal was 826.25 yuan / ton on May 1 and 997.5 yuan / ton on May 13, with a rise of 20.73% in half a month. During the May Day festival, the main producing areas of steam coal basically maintained a stable state, and the pit sales were in good condition. The coal price in Ordos, Inner Mongolia was temporarily stable. However, due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the coal supply was generally in a tight state. Downstream power plants: in terms of power plants, the coal inventory of power plants is at a low level. Some data show that as of May 12, the six major coastal power plants have a total inventory of 13.342 million tons, daily consumption of 698000 tons, and available days of 19.1 days. In May, power plants are willing to replenish their stocks. Traders are reluctant to sell at high prices and optimistic about the future. At present, port traders are still reluctant to sell and have a strong attitude of supporting prices. Port prices are relatively strong and market sentiment is relatively high as a whole.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal in the producing area is in a tight state. After the May Day holiday, there is no obvious increase in the storage of coal in the downstream power plants, and there is still a demand for replenishing the storage. And the peak summer is coming, so there is still a strong demand for replenishing the storage of thermal coal, which is supported by thermal coal. Moreover, the market sentiment is relatively hot, and traders are more optimistic about the later period. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is still relatively strong, and the demand of downstream market is more specific.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 906 yuan / ton on May 10 and 906 yuan / ton on May 14, which was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate was stable, and the market demand for ammonium sulfate increased. By the end of the week, the mainstream ex factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was 830-870 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 780-820 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 740-780 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast was 700-800 yuan / ton. The domestic ammonium sulfate Market is stable, new orders increase, and the market trend is good.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer continued to consolidate stage, the market remained stable. Compound fertilizer raw material prices are still high, in the cost price support, compound fertilizer market is strong. Due to the cost pressure, compound fertilizer continued to consolidate at a high level in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate Market see good, the new single increased. Downstream just need to purchase, go goods smoothly. The market of domestic ammonium sulfate is stable, the supply of goods is tight, and the trading volume is good. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will be in stable operation at high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the chlor alkali plate rose as a whole after May 1st. The prices of products in each industry are as follows:

commodity , Price on May 1 , Price on May 12 , Company , Up and down

PVC , 8962.5, 9250, Yuan / ton , 3.21%

Calcium carbide, four thousand five hundred and fifty , four thousand six hundred and eighty-three point three three Yuan / ton, 2.93%

Light soda,, one thousand seven hundred and fifty-two , 1760, Yuan / ton , 0.46%

Caustic soda, 457.5, 457.5, Yuan / ton , 0

hydrochloric acid , two hundred and twenty-six point six seven , 226.67, Yuan / ton, 0

From the above figure, PVC price rose 3.21%, calcium carbide rose 2.93% and soda ash increased by 0.46%. Today, we will take a stock of the chlorine alkali products with better price rise.

First, we will look at the calcium carbide: on May 1, the average price of the Northwest market of calcium carbide was 4550 yuan / ton, and the average price of Northwest calcium carbide Market on May 12 was 4683.33 yuan / ton, and the price rose 2.93%. The reason for the price increase is that the raw material, orchid carbon, has been greatly increased, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. Downstream PVC market also rose slightly in the near future, downstream customers are more active in calcium carbide procurement. The future market expects the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China, low price consolidation of upstream orchid carbon and high consolidation of PVC market in the downstream. The enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement is general, or small shocks will be sorted out.

Next, we will see PVC: May 1 holiday returns, PVC futures market is open, prices rise strongly, driving the spot trend direction. The trading quotient also rose, and the market overall focus shifted upward. Recently, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has increased, and the cost side support is stronger. In May, the number of maintenance enterprises increased, the market supply is tight, and the price of PVC is up. At present, the export side has weakened, but the domestic market is relatively stable. The quotation of downstream products industry also increases with the rising of raw material market. However, the acceptance of high price PVC is still low, the market transaction is light, and the purchase needs to be maintained and replenishment is bargain hunting.

From the above figure of the industrial chain, the upstream coke price rose 12.84%, calcium carbide rose 2.93% and PVC price increased by 3.21%. The near future profit of the downstream steel plant of coke is high, the starting rate of the steel plant is high, the demand for coke is good, the coke inventory in the plant is low, and there is obvious demand for replenishment. And on November, coking enterprises rose in the sixth round. Upstream prices rose, and calcium carbide prices followed. PVC price has demand side support, and in May, the number of maintenance enterprises increased, the source of goods decreased, and the PVC price also followed up.

Soda: the total stock of soda is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Now, the soda is mainly executed in the early stage, the demand side is relatively stable, the downstream normal procurement, and the enterprise actively delivers the main. From the upstream and downstream: upstream and demand: upstream: the national salt market is stable mainly, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and downstream mainly purchase on demand, and it is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable to sort out the operation market. The price of glass in downstream rises, which supports the price of soda, or drives the demand for soda. But downstream glass is in a wait-and-see state for high price alkali, and the acceptance is not high, so the buyer and the seller still start price game.

Business analysts believe: upstream orchid carbon prices low consolidation, downstream PVC market high consolidation, the general enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be consolidated in the later period. At present, the new maintenance enterprises in May are still few, and most of them are routine maintenance, and the parking time is short, and the impact on supply is limited, so PVC can not continue to go higher. In addition, high price raw materials inhibit demand release, export resistance rise also pressure spot trend, short-term PVC market or continue high volatility. Domestic soda is stable and small. Downstream glass mainly purchases soda on demand, and has a conflict with high price soda. In a comprehensive view, the short-term price of soda continued to be consolidated. In general, the overall consolidation operation of the price of chlor alkali plate is mainly in the later stage.

The domestic ethanol market is low, and the performance of each region is slightly different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of May 12, the domestic ethanol market price was 6620 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.23% and a year-on-year increase of 14.88%.

There are some differences in domestic ethanol market consolidation among different regions: Northeast, East China and Henan; The ethanol market in Dongguan is up, and the port quotation is stable; The ethanol market in Guangxi is up; The ethanol market in Yunnan is stable; Sichuan Baijiu market outlook, liquor demand in the off-season, the market turnover was light.

In terms of raw materials, the price of corn fluctuated and rebounded. Factors such as the rise of internal and external corn depots, some deep processing to supplement the depots, the weakening willingness of grain holders to sell grain, and the policy to stop shooting wheat boosted the market’s bullish sentiment. In May, China’s breeding and feeding corn will continue to grow. In the first half of the month, the breeding market is in the transition stage from off-season to peak season, and the growth rate of corn demand is slow. In the second half of the month, the peak season of demand is gradually approaching, and the contradiction of corn supply shortage is gradually highlighted. Downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate market continued to be weak. The price of acetic acid on raw material side dropped sharply, ethyl acetate itself had no power, and the downstream terminals were mainly rational about the purchase of ethyl acetate, the new orders in the market were insufficient, and the market passively followed the trend of raw material side weakening. The start-up of ethyl acetate industry is stable, the market spot supply is sufficient, the trend of raw material side continues to be weak, and ethyl acetate continues to follow the weak trend passively.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol 6850 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Cassava alcohol 6700 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7500 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province General level 6450-6550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6700-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6650-6700 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 7400-7450 yuan / ton

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Some large plants in Northeast China have been overhauling and lightening the load, while others have been gradually feeding. The overall market supply has increased. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

From May 6 to 8, 2021, the crude benzene market price was temporarily stable. This week, the price adjustment of most manufacturers was stranded. The bidding price of 29 days before the festival was still implemented, and the prices of some manufacturers in 10 days of the cycle changed.

In May 2021, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was raised once. At present, the price is 7700 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton.

Since the end of April, the external price of pure benzene has risen sharply, and the crude oil price has been consolidated at a high level in the same period. Supported by favorable fundamentals, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene once before the festival, and the price rose again on the first day after the festival, with a total increase of 400 yuan / ton. The domestic pure benzene industry chain has a strong bullish atmosphere, downstream styrene and other markets are also strong operation, and the positive support of upstream and downstream is obvious. After the festival, the price of pure benzene is the main trend in hydrobenzene market. At present, the unit operation rate is at a normal level, and the demand for crude benzene is relatively stable.

In the future, the business community believes that there are many favorable factors in the fundamentals at present, and the downstream demand is temporarily stable. It is expected that driven by the rising price of the industrial chain, there will be upward space in the future.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market generally rose in April and then recovered, with different brands of products rising or falling. As of May 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18375 yuan / ton, which was 0.41% higher than the average price in early April and 72.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw materials, styrene has been up since April. April market to undertake at the end of March, enterprise equipment maintenance, terminal replenishment volume. Inflation at the macro level and the favorable domestic demand expectation also affect the market. Many factors have stabilized the market of styrene. At the end of the month, the centralized maintenance was basically completed, the domestic supply recovered obviously, but the port cargo inventory position was low, and the on-site supply was still tight. Upstream pure benzene continued to rise, styrene cost side support is stable, it is expected that the trend will be positive in the short term.

As for butadiene, the domestic butadiene market was mainly volatile in April. The shutdown and maintenance of Fushun Petrochemical Plant boosted the business’s expectation of supply and demand in the small area, but it is still difficult to pull the butadiene market. The prices of Sinopec and some suppliers increased slightly, and some units were shut down during the month. The butadiene market operation rate was once less than 60%. However, the market inventory digestion was slow, the supply continued to be under pressure, the supply in circulation was abundant, and there were many low price transactions, which dragged the butadiene market to a weak downward trend after a short-term shock. The strong external market operation boosted domestic exports in May. Recently, the short-term load of butadiene industry decreased, which promoted the de inventory. The downstream rubber market is weak and the inventory is under pressure, and the new production capacity is expected to be released. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

In April, the ABS cost side market fluctuated, which generally supported the ABS spot price. The first half of last month to undertake the demand of home appliance industry market, boost the spot price. However, the sustained high operating rate of petrochemical enterprises leads to the increasing supply situation in the field. With the further abundant supply of goods in the market, the market competition is strengthened. In the middle of the month, the ABS market quickly recovered and fell below the average price at the beginning of the month. In the second half of the month, there was a small peak of goods preparation before the festival to ease the contradiction between supply and demand and stabilize the ABS fundamentals. At the end of the month, when the terminal stock is completed, the spot price position is still high, and the downstream resistance is strong.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS market rose in April after the fall, the price position of the basic return to the level at the beginning of the month. The trend of raw materials is different, and the support for ABS cost is acceptable. According to the business news agency, one of the main factors affecting the market in April is the continuous high opening rate, which broke the shortage situation in the early stage. At the same time, the abundant supply also strengthened the competition in the market. On the other hand, the end-users maintain high cost pressure, and the procurement operation tends to be rigid demand. On the floor buyers’ resistance weakens trading momentum. In the near future, the domestic ABS supply situation will continue, and it is expected that the spot price will maintain the horizontal consolidation operation, which does not rule out the possibility of a downward adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average port price of steam coal was about 830 yuan / ton on May 6, and 882.5 yuan / ton on May 7, with a single day increase of 6.33%. On May 6, the steam coal commodity index was 100.00, up 0.45 points from yesterday, down 20.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 123.71% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, during the May Day festival, the main production area of steam coal basically maintained a stable state, the pit sales were good, and the coal price in Ordos area of Inner Mongolia temporarily stabilized, but due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the coal supply was generally in a tight state.

Downstream power plants: in terms of power plants, the coal inventory of power plants is at a low level, and the peak summer is coming. In May, power plants have a strong desire to replenish the stock, and traders are reluctant to sell at high prices, so they are optimistic about the future market. After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway line, the volume of the north port transfer increased significantly, and the amount of transfer was increased by about 300 thousand tons during the maintenance period. But the Bohai Rim port inventory is at a low level. Data show that as of April 30, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.42 million tons, down 115000 tons from March 31.

Macro: the overall release of raw coal is not as expected. On April 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in March, China produced 340.76 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, an increase of 9.4% over March 2019, an average increase of 4.6% in two years, and an average daily output of 10.99 million tons; The imported coal was 27.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. In the first quarter, China produced 970.56 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, an increase of 15.4% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average increase of 7.4% in two years; The import of coal was 68.46 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%.

Analysts from business news agency believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal in the producing area is in a tight state, and the downstream power plants have inventory demand, and the demand for thermal coal is good. And the peak summer is coming, there is still a strong demand for thermal coal replenishment, and the market sentiment is hot. Traders are reluctant to sell at the price, and they are optimistic about the later period as a whole. On the whole, thermal coal is mainly in strong operation, See the downstream market demand specifically.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On April 29, the price was $1158.50/ton, and on April 30, the average price of ethylene was $1159.00/ton, up 0.04%. The current price has increased by 2.75% month on month, and the current price has increased by 227.63% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a slight upward trend. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 29th, CFR closed at US $1102-1110 / T in Northeast Asia and US $1047-1055 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 29th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1260-1273 / T and CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1210-1221 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 29th, the price is US $1140-1152 / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia is generally stable and rising, mainly due to slight fluctuations in Europe. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market is acceptable, with a slight rise in the market.

International: on April 29, international oil prices rose significantly, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $65.01/barrel, up US $1.15 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.56/barrel, up US $1.27 or 1.9%, mainly due to the strong performance of US economic data and the weakness of US dollar, and the expectation of demand recovery outweighed the market’s worry about the epidemic situation in India and other places.

The recent volatility of styrene in East China market has fallen, because with the end of replenishment at the end of the month, the follow-up of styrene high price spot is weak, in addition, the futures adjustment is accelerated, the expectation is gradually realized, and the downstream is cautious and wait-and-see. GPPS suffered a serious loss, EPS suffered a small loss, and some downstream companies reduced production and sold raw materials; In addition, the maintenance plan of some domestic and South Korean units was delayed in May, and Huatai and SINOCHEM Hongrun planned to put into production, etc., resulting in loose supply in the far end of the market. In the short term, the market atmosphere weakened and styrene showed a downward trend.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, the US economic data strongly supports the market atmosphere, the market is optimistic about the global demand for crude oil, and the cost support is strong, so the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

Spot precious metal prices were weak during the year, and prices rebounded in April

According to business news agency data, on April 30, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5321.67 yuan / kg, up 2.22% in the day, up 5.51% compared with the average price of 5061 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 4.11%.

On April 30, the spot price of gold was 369 yuan / g, down 1.2% within the day, up 1.55% compared with the average price of 363.35 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (4.1); The spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), down 6.04%.

Strong domestic gold consumption in the first quarter

According to WGC data, China’s consumer demand for gold increased to 286.4 tons in the first quarter of 2021, in sharp contrast to the trend of global demand for gold falling to a 13 year low. China is the largest gold consumer in the world.

Among them, more than half of China’s gold demand comes from jewelry. Jewelry demand for gold reached 191.1 tons in the first quarter, the highest level since 2015.

Domestic gold production fell in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2021, the domestic raw material gold output was 74.44 tons, 8.19 tons lower than that in the same period of 2020, 9.92% lower than that in the same period of 2020, including 58.91 tons of gold mineral gold and 15.53 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold. Together with the gold production of imported raw materials in the first quarter, the total gold production in China was 98.43 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.39%.

Gold imports rose slightly in the first quarter

In the first quarter, the supply of imported gold raw materials increased steadily, and the gold production of imported raw materials was 23.99 tons, up 1.41% year on year.

Gold price stops falling in April

The sharp fall of gold in the early stage is mainly due to the high yield of us long-term treasury bonds, the continuous rise of US stock market, the positive trend of international commodities, and the weakening of speculative enthusiasm of precious metal market. In April, the price of precious metal gold began to stop falling, stabilized and recovered slightly.

Periodic warming is mainly based on two factors

First, the domestic precious metal consumer market is hot, the gold price has doubled, the market has been cut, and the demand for physical consumption has soared.

Second, in the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase. Precious metals have the power to recover.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 17733.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a slight increase of 4.93%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose this month. Affected by environmental factors, large factories in Yunnan stop, yellow phosphorus spot is relatively tight. In the middle of April, the downstream started to prepare goods before May Day, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly, and the price of new orders gradually rose. In the last ten days, the price was high, and the pre festival market was mainly for the supply of orders in the early stage. Some enterprises no longer quoted prices and suspended receiving orders. So far, the mainstream price of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 17600-17800 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17700 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 17800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to recover steadily in April, and the terminal downstream entered the peak season to purchase, which provided support for the price increase of phosphorus ore market. On the 6th, the market price of phosphorus ore ushered in the first large-scale price rise of this month. On the 19th, some phosphorus ore enterprises in Guizhou adjusted the price again, raising the market price of middle and low-end phosphorus ore again. Up to now, the reference price of 30% phosphate rock is 400-430 yuan / ton, 28% grade phosphate rock is 340-360 yuan / ton, and 22% grade phosphate rock is 220-260 yuan / ton. Among them, the price of 30% phosphate ore car plate of Xifeng phosphate ore mine in Guizhou was raised to 400 yuan / ton, and the price of 30% grade phosphate ore train station platform in Kaiyang Guanglong, Guizhou was raised to 420 yuan / ton.

In terms of coke, the coke markets of Shandong Port and port are still relatively strong. At present, the mainstream spot ex warehouse price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in port area is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 2600 yuan / ton, which is 120 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous trading day. The port trading situation is fair, the market traders are bullish in the future, and the quotations are generally on the high side. Restricted by the site, the situation of port gathering slowed down.

The downstream phosphoric acid market rose slightly this month, by about 2%. Near the May Day holiday, there are not many new orders, and the market is stabilizing. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of April 28, the quotation in Sichuan is 4900-5650 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is 5200 yuan / ton, that in Beijing is 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 5200-5500 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 5900 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 5500 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi is 5200-5320 yuan / ton, The price of phosphoric acid rose steadily in April.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts of business society chemical branch believe that the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose this month, and the spot on the floor continued to be tight. The price of phosphorus ore and coke in the upstream rose, while the price of phosphoric acid in the downstream rose. The market price is basically stable before the festival, and it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.

On April 28, 2021, the price of silicon metal (441) was stable. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13000 yuan / ton on April 28, down 4.70% compared with the average market price of 13641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of April (4.1).

The price of 441 ᦇ silicon in different regions on the 28th is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 12800-12900 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 12900-13100 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 13500-13700 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 12800-12900 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 13200-13300 yuan / ton.

Acrylic acid price stable, market inquiry

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Association)

2、 Market analysis

On April 27, the acrylic acid market was stable. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of April 27, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 10133.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 1% compared with last Tuesday (April 20), and decreased by 2.88% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, the price of raw material propylene is still at a high level, the cost support is obvious, the downstream is purchased on demand, the market transaction is orderly, and the acrylic acid market is temporarily stable.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the recent acrylic acid prices of some enterprises (for reference only, the actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications and products are mainly negotiated)

enterprise market price Specifications date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd 9500 yuan / ton Commercial standard: propanoic acid; Grade: superior 2021-4-27

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd 10500 yuan / ton Commercial standard: propanoic acid; Grade: superior 2021-4-27

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd 11200 yuan / ton Spermic acid; The content was 99.7%; 2021-4-27

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd 9300 yuan / ton Commercial standard: propanoic acid; Grade: superior 2021-4-26

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd 11000 yuan / ton Commercial standard: propanoic acid; Grade: superior 2021-4-26

Shandong ruishuang Chemical Co., Ltd 9800 yuan / ton 99.90%, superior products 2021-4-25

Upstream propylene, as of April 26, Shandong propylene market prices declined slightly. According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. From the 6th, the price rose steadily, from the 16th, it rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton every day, and from the 23rd, it began to stabilize. Today, the price finally dropped by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 8550 yuan / ton and 8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8550 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the upstream propylene price is weakening, but the cost pressure still exists. Market inquiries and transactions are general. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance. general

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 13233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 5.04%, 143.86% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol rose this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 102.21 on April 23.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the factory quotations of mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers in Shandong rose this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 13900 yuan / ton, up 700 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week; Lihuayi quoted 13900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 13900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this week, up 600 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 8471.18 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8604.91 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.58%, 45.95% year-on-year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased from 11825.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12125.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.54%, and a year-on-year increase of 94.52%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for octanol procurement, and the demand for ISO octanol was good. The future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong was mainly up in a small range. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the raw material support was good, the downstream DOP market was consolidated at a high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal, and the supply of isooctanol was normal. Isooctanol analysts of business society think: in late April, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly.

The price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week, and the overall market of aluminum fluoride was basically stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8966.67 yuan / ton on April 25, which was the same as that of last week.

Aluminum prices rose slightly this week

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the aluminum price rose slightly this week. This week, the aluminum price failed to continue the previous rise, and the aluminum price stabilized. The stabilization of aluminum price is beneficial to aluminum fluoride, and the stimulation is weakened, and the aluminum fluoride market is temporarily stable.

The price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream remained stable, which did not stimulate the aluminum fluoride Market. The aluminum fluoride started to operate at low load, and the social inventory was still high; The original inventory of downstream electrolytic aluminum is mainly consumed, and the demand for aluminum fluoride bidding procurement is general at present. Overall, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in business news agency believe that: the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upper reaches are stable at a high level, the basic stimulation of aluminum fluoride market is insufficient, the aluminum fluoride market is temporarily stable, and the domestic aluminum fluoride price is strong and stable in the future.

On April 23, domestic polysilicon prices continued to rise, domestic manufacturers and import prices remained high, especially the import source increased significantly. At present, domestic polysilicon manufacturers have successively signed new orders in May. The manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the ex factory price is strong. At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains at a high level. Up to now, most of the domestic silicon material manufacturers are operating normally. The two equipment are maintained and started with reduced load. The enterprises maintain a high operating rate and the market supply is stable. The inventory pressure of enterprises has eased. This week, the silicon chip manufacturers did not adjust the price. The demand of downstream silicon chip manufacturers is stable. After several rounds of silicon chip price increases, the tolerance of the downstream to high price silicon materials has increased, and the purchasing volume has not decreased. However, the terminal cost pressure is relatively high, and the component purchasing has a slowing trend, which continues to go up or is hindered. According to the monitoring of the business association, the current mainstream transaction price of polysilicon, which is grade I solar material, is 76000-82000 yuan / ton in China.

In the future, polysilicon analysts from the business community believe that the polysilicon market may still be affected by the shortage of goods, and the price is mainly strong and upward. Considering the current high point, the upward range and momentum may slow down.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 17366.67 yuan / ton last Thursday and 17733.33 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price rose by 2.11% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward, the yellow phosphorus market continues to stock before the festival, the spot on the floor is tight, and the manufacturer’s quotation is high. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17500-17700 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 17800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, as of April 21, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 480 yuan / ton. Compared with April 18, the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.31%. Compared with April 1 (the average reference price of phosphate rock was 446 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 34 yuan / ton, or 7.46%. Business community phosphorus ore analysts believe that, supported by the just need to prepare goods before the festival, the market price of phosphorus ore is expected to be strong and high in the near future, and the price of individual regions is expected to continue to explore.

In terms of coke, the coke markets of Shandong Port and port are relatively strong. At present, the mainstream ex warehouse price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in port area is about 2300 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 2400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day. The volume of port collection dropped slightly, the site was tight, and the increase of port inventory was postponed. At present, the sales situation of coking enterprises is good and the production is positive. Some coking enterprises have started the second round of increase, but the downstream steel mills have not responded yet. Hebei, Shanxi and other places strictly implement the environmental protection production restriction, among which Jinzhong Area of Shanxi Province has a certain impact on the overall output, and the supply of some high-quality coke is tight. At present, the coking enterprises have a good mentality, and the future market is expected to be bullish.

In terms of downstream phosphoric acid, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 5216.67 yuan / ton last Thursday and 5250 yuan / ton this Thursday, according to the block data list of business society. The price rose by 0.64% in the week. According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the raw material side rose before the festival, and the supporting force gradually strengthened. The phosphoric acid market rose steadily. Some enterprises have made a tentative rise, and it is expected that there will still be a rise in the short term, but the terminal demand follow-up is general, so the upward range is not large.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. The yellow phosphorus market continued to be stocked before the festival, the spot on the floor was tight, the transaction price of new orders was high, and the main manufacturers issued early orders. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be high in the short term.

Magnesium market trend

On April 20, 2021, the price range of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) ex factory cash including tax in the main production areas in China is 16200-16600 yuan / ton, mainly through actual single negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 16200-16500 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 16400-16500 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 16400-16600 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 16300-16400 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of the business association, the average market price of the main production areas on the 20th was significantly higher than that quoted last weekend, with a range of 500-800 yuan / ton.

It is reported that the strong rebound of magnesium ingot price this week is mainly based on two factors.

On the supply and demand side, the current market demand is relatively improved, the number of inquiries is increasing, and the manufacturers in the main production areas do not have much inventory. Affected by the price of raw materials, the early operating rate is not high, and the production is relatively insufficient. Last week, the price of aluminum rose sharply, breaking through the level of 10000, and the price performance ratio of magnesium used in the downstream increased.

In terms of import and export, according to the information of exporters, export orders began to pick up and rise, with an increase in order volume. The production in foreign countries has gradually recovered, and the demand for magnesium ingots has picked up.

On the whole, the current domestic shipping situation is good, some of the trading in advance. Analysts from business news agency believe that due to the relatively high price of coal, high cost pressure, low inventory of enterprises and large proportion of pre-sale transactions, manufacturers are relatively willing to support the price. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be strong in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of April 20, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 11766.67 yuan / ton. The domestic DMF market price fell slightly, and traders were cautious. Compared with yesterday’s price, the price fell by 0.56%. In the short term, the DMF Market fluctuated in a narrow range.

Domestic DMF market is weak, transaction atmosphere is general, negotiation focus is weak, just need to purchase is main, individual manufacturers are tight, logistics is smooth, shipment is normal, reference price East China market 12350-12500 yuan / ton, South China market 12600-12700 yuan / ton, upstream methanol: Shandong Luzhong market negotiation rises to 2370-2390 yuan / ton, negotiation atmosphere is general, goods go smoothly.

Business agency DMF analysts believe: it is expected that DMF will run weakly and stably in the short term, and the rising trend is not obvious. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

From April 12 to April 16, 2021, the crude benzene market price decreased. The domestic ex factory price was 4399 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4345 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 1.23%.

In April 2021, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised four times, and now it is 7000 yuan / ton, among which Qilu Petrochemical is 6800 yuan / ton, and this week it is raised once, with a total of 150 yuan / ton.

The bidding price of crude benzene was lowered this week, and the bidding price in Shandong was lowered to 4280-42854150 yuan / ton, 230 yuan / ton lower than last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the poor performance of styrene downstream of pure benzene, the price of domestic pure benzene market mainly declined, while the price of hydrogenated benzene followed the downward trend, which had certain pressure factors on crude benzene. This week, the bidding price declined, and the overall market transaction was general. As the styrene futures price strengthened, the price of pure benzene rose. Sinopec’s ex factory price of pure benzene rose on Thursday, which brought better support to the market.

In the future, the business community believes that the frequent price increase of Sinopec’s pure benzene is good for the downstream hydrogenated benzene market. The price of hydrogenated benzene is expected to rise, and the crude benzene price is expected to have room to make up next week.

As can be seen from the trend chart of, the dimethyl ether Market opened a rising channel when it entered April, and the price continued to push up, but in the middle of the month, that is, on the 15th, the market inflection point appeared. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3185.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 3365.00 yuan / ton on April 15, with a half month increase of 5.65%, up 9.61% from March 1. As of April 15, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

Region specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% on April 15th 3520 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% on April 15 to 3580 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% April 15: 3400-3420 yuan / ton

In the first ten days of April, due to many positive factors in the dimethyl ether Market, the price continued to rise. On the one hand, the market focus of raw material methanol has moved up, and the upward cost has brought obvious benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. On the other hand, the LPG market began to rise on March 22, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually widened, boosting the market mentality. Finally, on the supply side, affected by many factors, the operating rate of dimethyl ether Market has declined compared with the previous period. At present, the operating rate of domestic dimethyl ether Market is only about 12%. And after the Qingming Festival holiday, there is a demand for downstream storage and replenishment. Under multiple positive factors, the price of dimethyl ether continued to rise to a relatively high level.

However, on April 15, the inflection point of DME market appeared, and the main production areas of Henan Province fell by 0.81%. The cost of methanol weakened significantly on the 12th, and the growth rate of LPG civil market narrowed. With the gradual digestion of the favorable market, the lower reaches showed more resistance to high prices, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was significantly weakened compared with the earlier stage. Some manufacturers were blocked in shipping. The main production areas in Henan Province were more obvious, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure increased. Henan xinlianxin implemented the minimum policy on the 15th, and temporarily did not make external quotation. Shandong and Hebei are relatively stable.

The cost of methanol market, domestic methanol spot market recently rose slowly. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of April 14, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2370 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.27% and a year-on-year increase of 32.40%. Due to the low inventory and limited supply of goods, the prices of some production enterprises in Northwest China keep rising, while those in inland China keep rising.

On the whole, the methanol cost market stopped falling and rising, but the range was limited. The civil LPG market continued to rise, and the rise was significantly narrowed compared with the previous period, which brought general benefits to the market. On the supply side, the operating rate of dimethyl ether Market has increased in the past week. At present, the operating rate of the market is about 13.5%, and the supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, a new round of replenishment in the lower reaches has ended, and the resistance to high prices has increased, and they have withdrawn from the market to wait and see. In addition, as the temperature is still rising, the demand may continue to decline, and the negative market factors are still rising. The business association thinks that the price of dimethyl ether will still drop slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5500 yuan / ton on April 12, and 5566 yuan / ton on April 16, which increased by 1.21% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin rose in the week. At present, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is about 5500-5700 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 5500 yuan / ton, and that in Shaanxi Province is about 5600 yuan / ton.

In terms of liquid wax, affected by the rise of crude oil, the market price of liquid wax rose steadily this week, and the overall trading atmosphere was good. This week, the liquid chlorine market changed frequently, and the prices in most regions generally increased. The price in North China fluctuated greatly, and the market in Northeast China was stable. At present, the overall market is slowing down, and there may be downward space next week.

3、 Future forecast

Business community chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the current chlorinated paraffin raw material market is generally good, the price fluctuates slightly, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

With the end of Qingming holiday, Shandong propane market continues to rise. At present, the average price of Shandong market has exceeded 4800 yuan. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average market price of propane was 4505.75 yuan / ton on April 6 and 4843.25 yuan / ton on April 13, with an increase of 7.49% after the holiday and 24.75% compared with the same period last year.

After the Qingming holiday, Shandong propane Market showed a continuous upward trend, with a sharp rise this time. During the period, the price increase ranged from 300-350 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average propane market price in Shandong in 2019 was 4527.50 yuan / ton; on April 13, 2020, the average propane market price in Shandong was 3882.50 yuan / ton; on April 13, this year, the average propane market price in Shandong was 4843.25 yuan / ton. Comparing with the data of the same period, we can see that the market price of propane is relatively high this year,

As of April 13, the mainstream propane prices in different regions in China are as follows:

13 April 2005

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4380-4550 yuan / ton

In North China,% (V / V) is not less than: 95 4630-4700 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province,% (V / V) propane is not less than 95.4750-4950 yuan / ton

In South China,% (V / V) is not less than 95 4500-4550 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 4630-4796 yuan / ton

In April, the market began to repair one after another, and the market supply decreased, which brought obvious support to the market. Secondly, on April 8, the sharp rise of international crude oil brought good news to the market. In addition, after the holiday, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, the market entry is more positive, the market transaction atmosphere is better, the upstream inventory is low, the manufacturer’s mentality is better, and the price is pushed up to a high level one after another. At present, there are some differences between the north and the south in the domestic propane Market. The rising trend in the north is stronger than that in the south.

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco announced in April that there was a downward trend in propane butane. Propane was 560 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane was 530 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On April 13, the small rise of international crude oil brought some support to the market, while Shandong propane market was still pushing up steadily. Although the range was narrower than that of the previous few days, the market transaction atmosphere was mild, and the upstream LPG market was also on the upward route. Generally speaking, the price in the northern market has risen to a relatively high level, while the price in the southern market is relatively low, and the inventory in Shandong market is mostly controllable. However, the bad news is still there. The weather is warming up, and the market demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the propane market will be relatively strong in the short term, with sporadic rise, but there is still a possibility of decline in the long term.

Recently, longmang Baili and other titanium dioxide enterprises have started a new round of price adjustment. Driven by market demand, the price of titanium dioxide continues to rise.

According to wind data, the titanium dioxide index fell 1.92% by the end of the 12th. Among the 10 stocks in the plate, 8 fell, 1 rose and 1 was flat. Huiyun titanium industry led the decline, down 4.98%, longmang Baili down 4.28%, BaoTi shares down 3.95%, Jinpu titanium industry down 0.66%, CNNC titanium white flat, Panzhihua Steel Vanadium Titanium rose 2.14%.

According to the data of Baichuan yingfu.com, as of April 12, the current market mainstream quotation of rutile titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid method is 20000-21000 yuan / ton, anatase titanium dioxide market mainstream quotation is 17300-18000 yuan / ton, and chlorination titanium dioxide market mainstream quotation is 22000-24000 yuan / ton.

In recent two weeks, titanium dioxide rose like a rainbow. On the 11th, longmang Baili announced that from now on, the sales price of various types of titanium dioxide (including sulfuric acid titanium dioxide and chlorination titanium dioxide) will be increased by 1000 yuan / ton for domestic customers and 150 US dollars / ton for international customers on the basis of the original price. Since the end of March, with Huiyun titanium industry taking the lead in price increase, the titanium dioxide market has started a new round of price increase since this year. Up to now, more than 20 enterprises, such as CNNC titanium dioxide, Jinpu titanium industry and longmang Baili, have announced to increase the price of titanium dioxide.

In terms of price information, mainstream enterprises have basically maintained a price increase of 1000 yuan / ton at home and 150 US dollars / ton at abroad. Among them, some manufacturers in Southwest China sent letters twice, with a total increase of 2100 yuan / ton. The two letters were only ten days apart.

Kaiyuan securities recently released a research report showing that the prices of titanium concentrate, anatase titanium dioxide and rutile titanium dioxide increased by 10.34%, 12.66% and 5.18% respectively in the past 30 days.

Titanium dioxide is one of the main products of titanium coating industry chain. Mainly used in plastics, coatings, paper, ink, chemical fiber, cosmetics and other industries. Western securities analysis pointed out that in April, the rising price of titanium dioxide was fierce, because the raw material titanium ore increased too much. Small and medium-sized factories mainly purchased titanium ore, which was limited by the price of raw materials. In addition, the current market demand was relatively strong, so manufacturers took orders first and then produced. For the expected price change of raw materials, they need to make advance quantity, and then reasonably price and schedule production according to the orders in hand. From the perspective of this round of price adjustment, we can basically conclude that the market continues to be high and upward.

1、 Price trend

This week, the price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 12500.00 yuan / ton on April 5 to 12100.00 yuan / ton on April 6, a decrease of 3.20%, and then rose to 12500.00 yuan / ton on April 9. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 138.10%. On the whole, the market of ISO octanol was temporarily stable this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 91.91 on April 9.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the factory quotations of mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers in Shandong fell first and then rose this week: Jianlan chemical quoted 12500 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi quoted 12400 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 12600 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week, The price is stable for the time being.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 8094.36 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8227.55 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.65%, up 43.38% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, DOP factory price high consolidation this week. DOP quotation fell from 11550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%, up 98.71% over the same period of last year. The price of DOP in the lower reaches was high and consolidated. The customers in the lower reaches had a good enthusiasm for purchasing octanol, and the demand for ISO octanol was normal.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of April, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the raw material support was good, the downstream DOP market was consolidated at a high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal, and the supply of isooctanol was general. Isooctanol analysts from business news agency believe that: in mid April, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the isooctanol market in Shandong may rise slightly.

From April 5 to April 9, 2021, the market price of antimony ingot in East China rose slightly, at 72750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 72750 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was flat this week.

On April 8, the antimony commodity index was 101.28, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 1.02% compared with 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 115.58% compared with 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

This week, the antimony ingot market continued to maintain a high and stable trend. In the past month, the price continued to be stable, the market supply and demand situation was slightly balanced, most of the transactions were purchased on demand, and the downstream was in a strong wait-and-see mood. Antimony ingot manufacturers supply is still tight, strong willingness to price. The environmental protection supervision team has been stationed in Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Yunnan and other provinces. The follow-up will have a certain impact on the smelting of antimony ingot.

As of April 9, the average price of two low bismuth antimony ingots was 70500 yuan / ton, one high bismuth antimony ingot was 72000 yuan / ton, one high bismuth antimony ingot was 73000 yuan / ton, and the average price of two high bismuth antimony ingots was 65500 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of antimony ingot has been at a historical high, and the downstream pressure is relatively large. In the future, without obvious impact on the basic supply and demand side, it is expected that the price of antimony ingot is still high and stable. In the future, we will focus on the impact of environmental protection supervision on the start-up of smelters in the main production areas.

Relevant data:

According to customs statistics, in December 2020, China’s import volume of antimony ore and concentrate was 835.1 tons, a month on month decrease of 64.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 85.8%.

China’s import volume of antimony oxide in January 2021 was 61.15 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%; China’s export volume of antimony oxide in January 2021 was 4794.08 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, since March, the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province has gone up and down, with a price of 3030 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a peak of 4310 yuan / ton at the middle of the month, and then dropped to 3750 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall amplitude of 42.24% within the month and an increase of 23.76% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

First of all, affected by the enterprise burden reduction and low inventory, the spot supply of chloroform in Shandong was tight in March. According to the business news agency, Jinling Dongying methane chloride plant was shut down in mid March, Jinmao methane chloride plant was shut down, Dongyue’s start-up load was not high, and about 90% of Luxi’s start-up was near, so the market supply was slightly tight. In the first ten days of the middle month, the downstream refrigerant manufacturers increased their stock, the trichloromethane shipment was smooth, and the price went up all the way. In the second ten days of the middle month, as the price of methane chloride was on the high side, the downstream was in conflict with the high price of trichloromethane, the transaction was weak, and the ex factory price of methane chloride manufacturers was moderately reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 31, the ex factory price of trichloromethane in Jinling, Shandong Province was about 3750 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of trichloromethane bulk water in Luxi Chemical Industry is 3500 yuan / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw materials is high and the cost is relatively strong. In March, the price of liquid chlorine rose sharply, while the price of methanol remained high, with strong cost support. According to the business news agency, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province increased from 1600 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 2100 yuan / ton at the end of March; the price of methanol increased from 2295 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 2377 yuan / ton at the end of March, with a slight increase of 3.59%.

Finally, at the beginning of March, there were sufficient orders for downstream refrigerants, the merchants were active in preparing goods, the overall shipment was smooth, and the start-up of manufacturers was relatively high; in the middle and late ten days, the demand for downstream refrigerants declined, the peak of foreign trade orders ended, and the domestic trade orders continued to be weak and stable.

According to the methane chloride data of business news agency, the inventory pressure of trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong is not big, the raw material price rises sharply, and the cost support is relatively strong. Although the demand side drops slightly in the short term, the downstream refrigerants still need to be supported in the later period as the weather gets warmer. It is predicted that the price of trichloromethane will rise steadily in April.

In March, the domestic ethanol market went down in a narrow range. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7262 yuan / ton on March 1, and the domestic butadiene market price was 7187 yuan / ton on March 31, with a decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year increase of 36.58%.

In terms of regional market conditions, the northeast, East China and Henan markets are down, the South China and Guangxi molasses ethanol market is weak, the Dongguan ethanol market is down, the Anhui market is weak, the Sichuan market is weak, and the Yunnan market is stable.

From the perspective of raw material corn, this month’s raw material corn market went down, dipingliang (Chaoliang) concentrated on the market, traders were eager to ship, the arrival volume of deep-processing enterprises increased, and enterprises took advantage of the trend to lower prices; African swine fever made a comeback, feed demand decreased; recent increase in corn imports, all of these factors combined to form a bad effect on corn. From the perspective of demand, terminal enterprises recover slowly, demand power is insufficient, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand.

This month, the logistics price will come to the top. The price of shipping from Jilin to Shandong is 140 yuan / ton, and from Heilongjiang to northern Jiangsu is 300 yuan / ton.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Heilongjiang Province ﹣ corn alcohol general grade ﹣ 6700-6900 yuan / ton, tax included

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7180-7250 yuan / ton, tax included

In Henan Province, ﹣ 7800-7950 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol including tax

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 6850-6900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7500-7900 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province, ﹣ 7750-7800 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the price of ordinary grade is less than 7000 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the price of the general grade is 6850 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average corn yield is about 7150-7200 yuan / ton

About 6900-7000 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 7850-7900 yuan / ton

About 7900-8100 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 7050 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6950 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In Guangxi, the price of honey alcohol is 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi: 6800-7050 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of anhydrous ethanol is 7600-7700 yuan / ton

About 7150-7200 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

About 7700-7900 yuan / ton of anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong

Some northeast enterprises have maintenance plan in April, but due to the limited downstream demand, the inventory is high, so the maintenance can not relieve the pressure. In the lower reaches, there will be a small increase in demand for Baijiu and a steady demand for ethyl acetate in chemical industry. Ethanol analysts of business associations expect that the supply of the market will be weak and the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out after the short-term market supply is greater than demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s block list, the price of bromine rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 34277.78 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 35055.56 yuan / ton, up 2.27%, 16.85% over the same period last year. On March 31, the bromine commodity index was 123.00, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 108.76% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of domestic bromine enterprises is about 35000-36500 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is relatively strong. The bromine market in Shandong Province is in short supply, and the downstream flame retardants and intermediates are well started, so the demand for bromine is acceptable. Most bromine manufacturers have the intention to support the price, and the low price is hard to find.

In terms of raw materials: sulfur will rise first and then decrease this month. According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China on March 30 was 1456.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% from yesterday’s price. At present, the domestic price of solid sulfur is 1360-1490 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur is 1300-1460 yuan / ton. Refineries in various regions adjust their prices according to their own shipment situation, and the solid and liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong are slightly reduced. At present, refineries in various regions in China have low inventory, low purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream market and weak support. They are mainly in a standoff and wait-and-see situation. The demand of phosphate fertilizer industry in the downstream is stable. Coupled with the approaching of spring ploughing fertilizer, they have certain support for sulfur, and the sulfur market will wait-and-see in the later stage .

Analysts from business news agency believe that the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry of bromine is developing well, and the demand for bromine is good. The overall inventory of bromine is low, and the supply of bromine is tight. The bromine manufacturers have obvious intention to support the price. It is expected that the price of bromine will still rise slightly in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on March 29, copper prices rose slightly, with spot copper price of 66283.33 yuan / ton, up 0.93% from the previous trading day, 14.37% from the beginning of the year, and 70.26% from a year earlier.

Suez Canal congestion, ships may bypass South Africa, causing transport costs concerns, London Metal Exchange (LME) on March 26, the latest inventory of Lun copper reported 123800 tons, compared with the previous trading day increased 2125 tons, an increase of 1.75%. Last week, copper stocks in the previous period increased slightly by 987 tons to 188359 tons, with a cumulative increase of 183.97% in the last eight weeks. China’s copper smelters decided not to set a minimum standard for the second quarter copper processing and refining charges (TC / RCS), saying that there is sufficient concentrate supply and the overhaul period is coming, which may reduce the supply of 200000 tons of copper. At present, the processing and refining charges have dropped to a 10-year low. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation of copper price is relatively strong and the operation is dominated.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the DOP market stopped falling and adjusted this week, and the DOP price stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 29, the DOP price was 11900.00 yuan / ton, down 13.77% from 13800.00 yuan / ton on March 1, and stabilized from 11900 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (March 22). Raw material market rebounded, DOP market stabilized.

Isooctanol tends to stabilize

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the downstream industry chain is rising due to the rise of crude oil price. This week, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, the downward pressure of DOP weakened, and the upward momentum increased. DOP market has a certain rise support.

Phthalic anhydride tends to be stable

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride remained stable after the sharp fall this week, the market of phthalic anhydride stabilized, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP slowed down, the cost of DOP stabilized, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened in the future.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of raw materials stopped falling and rebounded last week, the cost of DOP rose slightly, and the DOP market recovered briefly. With the reopening of Suez Canal, the crude oil price lost its support, and the downstream industry chain market fell. Affected by the epidemic situation in Europe and India, the risk of crude oil price falling in the future increased, the product price of downstream industry chain lost its support, the price of phthalic anhydride and isooctanol was expected to drop, the cost of DOP fell, the stability of DOP was difficult to maintain, and the downward pressure of DOP in the future was greater.

According to the price monitoring of business association, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to rise steadily in March 2021. As of March 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton, up 11.6% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 77600 yuan / ton on March 1). On March 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90200 yuan / ton, up 8.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of March (the average price of carbon in East China was 82800 yuan / ton). Until the 26th, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was between 82000-89000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was between 86000-92000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, since the beginning of March, the resumption of production and work in various industries has begun to improve, and the production of the industry has also been on the right track. Therefore, from this month, the procurement of raw materials by downstream enterprises has gradually increased and concentrated. However, due to the insufficient operating rate in Jiangxi and the price increase in Qinghai, the price of lithium carbonate has increased. Then, in mid March, the rising trend of lithium carbonate price gradually slowed down, the rising range decreased, the trading volume of lithium carbonate in the market gradually decreased, and the downstream supply of raw materials has been basically completed. Therefore, the market wait-and-see sentiment is obvious, coupled with mica and Salt Lake production began to pick up, the price trend began to stabilize.

In late March, the price of lithium carbonate still rose slightly. Some downstream enterprises replenished a small amount of lithium carbonate. At present, the inventory of lithium carbonate production enterprises is relatively low. In addition to the strong willingness of suppliers to support the price, the price is still rising. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic lithium carbonate has been soaring since November 2020. So far, the price of industrial lithium carbonate has increased by more than 119.24%, and that of battery lithium carbonate has increased by more than 104.07%.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide rose again in March. Due to the tight spot market, the downstream enterprises actively inquired and the low price shipping intention of the enterprises was not strong, so the price center of gravity moved up, and the price game of manufacturers has heated up recently. In terms of lithium iron phosphate power market, the price continues to rise, the short-term supply situation continues, and the industry capacity shortage situation is expected to remain, and there is still room for upward growth in the future.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, the market demand has gradually stabilized in the near future, and the driving force of price rise is insufficient. In addition, lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and the situation of short supply and demand will be significantly improved. The price of lithium carbonate is still expected to be strong in the short term.

1. Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas was 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and the quotation was temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On March 22, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1850 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 1800 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 960 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, which was the same as last week; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was the same as last time. The nitric acid market is fair, individual manufacturers have no inventory pressure; affected by the rise of raw materials, the price of nitric acid tends to rise.

Upstream liquid ammonia, this week (3.22-25) according to the monitoring of the business community, liquid ammonia continued the rising trend of last week, the average producer price in Shandong area at the beginning of the week was 3583 yuan / ton, the average weekend price was 3660 yuan / ton, up 2.14%; downstream aniline, the quotation of aniline this week was temporarily stable, the average domestic market price was 14000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the raw material liquid ammonia, nitric acid analysts of business news agency expect that the price of nitric acid may rise.

Looking back on the 23rd futures market, the oil sector was full of red, palm oil, soybean oil and vegetable oil rose sharply at the opening of the day, leading the top four futures list. Of course, the better varieties that rose on the 23rd were liquefied gas; besides apple, which had been falling continuously in the near future, the weak varieties on the 23rd plunged after 10 o’clock, once touched the limit, and then with the bottom buying funds Intervention, rapid recovery, day-to-day settlement price 17160, close to the three major spot market quotations. In addition, PP / PVC in the plastic sector fell ahead, occupying the top four of the decline board.

Oil floating red high strength

First of all, let’s take a look at the oil sector. Palm oil and soybean oil, which had a higher increase, had a spot price of 8500 yuan / ton on March 23, and the spot price of soybean oil was 9966 yuan / ton. On the 23rd, soybean oil rose 1.53% and palm oil rose 3.58%. Palm oil was stronger.

Two factors led to the rise of spot price of oil plate on the same day. The first factor was the positive external news, which led to the sharp rise of US soybean oil: US soybean oil was supported by us green energy policy, and the main contract of US soybean oil rose by the limit overnight. The second factor is that Malaysia’s palm oil export data is strong, and Malaysia’s palm oil export data has improved significantly in the first 20 days, boosting the market, according to the data of shipping survey agency. From March 1 to 20, Malaysia’s palm oil export volume increased by 5% – 7% month on month.

Analysts from business news agency believe that domestic soybean oil and palm oil storage is currently at a low level, and global oil demand is improving, which will be supported by favorable conditions. Soybean oil and palm oil will still run at a high level in the short term.

Palm oil is relatively strong in 2021. It is confirmed from the historical annual comparison chart of the current spot price that the current palm oil price is at a high level in the same period, only slightly higher than the current price in the same period of 2012, and lower than the current price from 2013 to 2020.

According to the futures support tool of business association, as of March 22, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of palm oil is 5.88%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 6.63%; from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the maximum basis rate of palm oil is 670.00, the minimum basis rate is 326.00, the average basis rate is 507.54, and the 23 day main basis rate is 454.

According to the annual comparison chart of soybean oil price, the current soybean oil price, like palm oil, is at a high level in the same period, which tends to be flat in the same period of 2012, slightly lower than that in the same period of 2011, and lower than the current price from 2013 to 2020. It can be seen that the oil sector has indeed entered the historical high price range.

As of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of soybean oil was 7.75%, and the 90 day average basis rate was 9.29%. From December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the main basis of soybean oil is 1022.67, 696.67, 845.51 on average, and 758 on the 23rd.

Liquified gas strives for gas

The product that rose well on the 23rd: liquefied gas; the average price of liquefied gas market on the 23rd was 3850.00 yuan / ton, while the civil market of liquefied gas rose mainly on the 23rd, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton in Shandong Province, and the current market transaction price is about 3750-3850 yuan / ton. In the morning, the rise of international crude oil has brought some benefits to the market mentality. The inventory of manufacturers is generally free from pressure, the mentality is relatively strong, and the price is pushing up. The price is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

According to the annual price comparison chart of LPG, the annual price trend is divided into two waves: in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the price is relatively high in the same period; after the price plunge at the end of 2014, LPG has been operating below 5000 for a long time, and the current price is mainly in the middle of the second echelon in the same period, slightly lower than that in 2015 and 2019.

As of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of LPG is – 8.43%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 0.05%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the main basis of LPG is 574.00, the minimum is -460.33, the average is 8.71, and the main basis of 23 days is – 50.00

The most beautiful aluminum ingot on the 23rd

Shanghai aluminum futures market yesterday is a dark horse, Shanghai aluminum main contract once limit. Many people are asking about the reasons. From the news, it is mainly due to the rumor that the aluminum ingots of the State Reserve were sold in the market yesterday, which caused the spread of market panic and led to the stampede of funds in the futures market. It is said that the amount of aluminum ingots thrown and stored by the State Reserve is about 500000 tons, but whether the rumor is true or not is unknown. After all, no official documents have been found to confirm it so far. As for whether it will be confirmed later, or it’s just news hype, we have to continue to pay attention. However, it can be reflected that the current aluminum price is high.

According to the annual comparison chart of aluminum price, the current aluminum price is at a high level in recent 10 years.

At present, the important support for high aluminum prices and high profits of aluminum plants is the current low social inventory.

The logic line is that in 2021, the cumulative stock of Spring Festival will decrease year on year, because this year’s situation is relatively special, there are more cases of non homecoming, the downstream operating rate is significantly higher than in the past, and the speed of returning to work after the festival is faster than in previous years. Of course, this also buried a hidden danger, which may overdraw the recovery of downstream operating rate in the peak season of April to May. Of course, we should also see the good side, that is, the problem of carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia can restrain the supply side to a certain extent.

As of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of aluminum is 1.28%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 0.64%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the maximum base difference of aluminum is 530.00, the minimum is – 155.00, the average is 101.75, and the main base difference on the 23rd is 40.00

How deep will the plastic plate be

PP and PVC in the plastic sector also fell significantly on March 23; on March 23, the latest price of PP (wire drawing) was 9166.67 yuan / ton, at the low point in March. The recent slight correction is mainly based on three factors: first, the price of propylene at the raw material end is down, and the support of PP cost is weakened; second, the maintenance of domestic devices is reduced this week, and the supply side is relatively abundant; third, after the high shock, the traders are cautious in receiving goods, and the wait-and-see mentality at the downstream purchasing end is increased, resulting in weak trading.

PP spot market is expected to still have a narrow decline.

From the annual price comparison chart of PP, compared with the same period, it is in the middle of the two bands, lower than 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014; higher than 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2020, slightly higher than 2018 and 2019.

According to the futures support tool of business society, as of March 22, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of polypropylene is 2.54%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 1.89%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the main basis difference of polypropylene is 453.00, the minimum is -67.00, the average is 160.82, and the main basis difference on the 23rd is 231.00

On March 23, the latest spot price of PVC was 8950 yuan / ton; the price of PVC was reduced mainly due to two factors: first, the price of raw materials was loose and the cost support was weakened. The price of calcium carbide is loose in the near future, and the efficiency of water rising ship should be weakened; second, the price increase in the early stage is relatively large, and the downstream pressure is relatively large, so the market is still digesting the early stage increase. The atmosphere of high price transaction is general, and the terminal receiving capacity still needs time to repair.

In the long run, the current PVC supply and demand fundamentals change little, PVC market is not easy to fall. PVC is expected to fluctuate high in the short term, waiting for demand follow-up.

From the annual comparison chart of PVC prices, the wave of PVC prices rose rapidly in February. The current price is much higher than that of the same period in other 10 years, and the second highest price appeared in 2011.

According to the futures support tool of business society, as of March 23, 2021, the 180 day average basis rate of PVC is 2.28%, and the 90 day average basis rate is – 0.05%. During the period from December 23, 2020 to March 23, 2021, the maximum value of main basis of PVC is 942.50, the minimum value is -555.00, the average value is 5.66, and the main basis of 23 days is 195

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the price of sulfur in East China was stable this week. The average price of sulfur production at the weekend was 1490.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 8.50% compared with that at the beginning of the month of 1373.33 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic sulfur market is mainly on the wait-and-see basis. The inventory of domestic refineries in various regions remains low, the market sulfur price is high and firm, the downstream plants are less enthusiastic in purchasing, the quotation of domestic refineries is basically stable, and the shipment is acceptable. During the week, refineries in various regions of China made big steady and small moves, with the exception of Sinopec’s solid sulfur price increase of 20 yuan / ton in East China, the overall market quotation was stable. As of the 21st, the regional price of sulfur in China is as follows:

21 March 2005

Sulfur (particle) 1430-1490 yuan / ton in East China

Sulfur (particle) 1380-1470 yuan / ton in North China

Sulfur (particle) 1500-1530 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

In the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate have been running smoothly, and the export has continued to improve with high prices. In addition, the market demand is optimistic with good support due to the approaching of spring ploughing fertilizer, and the future market has risen slightly. In terms of sulfuric acid, the market went up during the week, the export of sulfuric acid was good, the domestic supply was tight, and the upstream and downstream market was favorable. With the promotion of various factors, the price of sulfuric acid was increased, and the later sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

Sulfur analysts of business news agency believe that at present, domestic refinery inventory remains low and market price is firm and stable, but downstream demand is weak, trading is weak, and most of them purchase on demand. Moreover, this week’s market price is multi-dimensional and stable, with little upward momentum. In the short term, sulfur market will wait and see to sort out and pay attention to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 2070.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2116.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.25%, 18.25% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 98.45 on March 19.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2120 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2130 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

On the demand side: most of the agricultural demand is used as soon as it is purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants rises slightly, and the small orders follow up, and most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. Based on the rising demand of many local industries, the positive impact of Indian bidding, the improvement of domestic market mentality, and the willingness of some manufacturers to support prices.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3350.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 8.76%, 14.21% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3410.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.59% , up 9.18% from the same period last year. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea decreased slightly, from 8100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8033.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a sharp increase of 0.82%, up 47.85% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, urea cost support is good and demand is good this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand procurement is cautious, the industrial demand is used as soon as it is purchased, and the urea supply is acceptable. However, the bidding in India will start soon. It is expected that the domestic urea market will fluctuate slightly in the short term, and more attention will be paid to the bidding in India in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market continued to decline recently. As of the 19th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6525 yuan / ton, 17.67% lower than the price of 7925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 26.70% higher than the same period last year. The price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to fall in the near future, the spot supply was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride continued to fall.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride was in general condition. The downstream demand was reduced in the near future. The price trend of o-benzene was down. The plasticizer market was down. The market price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline due to the combination of bad factors. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride on the site was lower. The downstream plasticizer industry market declined, and the actual transaction situation was general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 6300-6500 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement is poor. The recent downward trend of downstream DOP market is affected by this Prices continued to fall.

Since March, the price trend of domestic o-benzene has dropped sharply, and the market price has dropped to 6200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.62%. The decline of domestic o-benzene price is a big bad news for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the market of imported o-benzene in port area has declined, the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated, and the import of o-benzene in port area has increased. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has fluctuated and adjusted The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The price trend of o-benzene is declining. The price of raw material o-benzene is lower, which is bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has dropped sharply.

The market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride declined slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton as of the 19th, with a price drop of 11.23% in March. The low starting point of the equipment of DOP enterprises in the yard was temporarily stable. With the sharp drop of the price of isooctanol, the cost of DOP decreased, the gap of DOP decline increased, and the DOP price plummeted. With the increase of the operating rate of DOP enterprises, the pressure of supply and demand is alleviated, the demand support is weakened, the rising power of DOP in the future is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. In the future, the cost of DOP decreased, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the high price caused the cost pressure of downstream products. The downstream customers were more resistant to high price DOP. The overall DOP price was about 12000-12600 yuan / ton, the domestic demand for phthalic anhydride did not improve, and the market price of phthalic anhydride dropped significantly.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price has declined. In addition, the downward pressure of downstream plasticizer industry market has increased, the DOP price has been declining, and the price of o-benzene has a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to decline slightly in the future.