The domestic propane market saw a significant increase in August. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong Province was 4718 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 5343 yuan/ton on August 30th. The monthly increase was 13.25%, a decrease of 10.2% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 30th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 30th

East China region/ 5400-5550 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5350-5500 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5300-5400 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5300-5400 yuan/ton

In the first half of August, the domestic propane market showed a significant increase, while in the second half, the increase was slightly reversed. At the beginning of the month, the CP price increase was introduced in August, boosting market confidence. In addition, with low inventory in the region, refineries actively pushed up prices, and prices continued to rise until mid month. As of August 15th, the average domestic propane price had risen to 5550 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.64% compared to the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the market entered a stage of correction and consolidation, and downstream consumers began to resist high priced sources of goods, especially the tightening of PD device profits, which affected the start of production. To stimulate sales, the focus of propane trading fluctuated and shifted downwards.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in August 2023, with propane at $470 per ton, an increase of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $460 per ton, an increase of $85 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current propane market prices remain high, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory. It is expected that the propane market will continue to decline slightly in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of p-xylene increased in August. As of the end of the month, the domestic factory price of p-xylene was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.41% compared to the initial price of 8800 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.11%.

In August, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, and PX external market prices remained at a high level. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were 1042-1044 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1067-1069 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is over 60%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend has slightly increased.

The international crude oil prices in August were mainly volatile. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.10 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $84.42 per barrel. The crude oil prices in August slightly decreased by 2.0%. On the one hand, concerns about the prospects for global economic growth have put pressure on crude oil. On the other hand, the weak economic data in China has dragged down the oil market, coupled with the instability of the European and American banking industry, a decrease in risk appetite, and pressure on the oil market. However, crude oil production has decreased, and Russian oil exports did not meet the quarterly plan in July, which was lower than expected at 370000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia may postpone its voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day until September; In addition, supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and Nigeria support oil prices. The news is mixed, with crude oil prices mainly fluctuating, and the domestic xylene market is limited in terms of growth.

In August, the domestic PTA spot market trend slightly increased, with an average price of 6082 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 6036 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, restart and maintenance coexist, and the overall load has increased. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is around 80%, and Hengli Petrochemical’s Huizhou 2.5 million ton new project is gradually mass produced, with a boost in supply. The downstream terminal polyester maintains a high level of over 90% overall and starts construction. As raw materials rise, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increases, and inventory pressure has increased, with short fiber inventory at a high level. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines at the terminal has slightly declined to below 63%, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines has continued to decline. The pressure on polyester inventory and cash flow has increased, and the polyester load has decreased. Affected by the poor terminal market situation, the price increase in the domestic xylene market is limited.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play against each other. The downstream PTA market has slightly increased, and there has been no significant improvement in demand in the textile industry. Market expectations for demand are not optimistic, and crude oil support is strong. Overall, it is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will remain stable in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market increased in August. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3980 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.80% compared to the initial price of 3560 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.40%.

In August, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market increased significantly, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable. Recently, the supply of goods on site was normal. In Hebei, due to the reduction of rainy weather, the situation of on-site sales improved, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers increased their factory prices. Downstream demand was normal, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate increased. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, while procurement in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have started operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has mainly increased. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5000 to 5100 yuan/ton, Shandong region is between 3800 to 4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is between 3800 to 3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in August, with an average price of 2016.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.95% compared to the price of 1940 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2100 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. The market supply is normal, and recent sales have been good, while downstream demand has correspondingly increased. On the market transactions have improved, and the price of raw material nitric acid has increased, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of the ammonium nitrate market has increased.

In August, the domestic liquid ammonia market price slightly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the initial price of 3533.33 yuan/ton. The increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to the tight supply performance of the main production areas in the north, which has a positive support for the market. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi have led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. Production enterprises generally experience vehicle queues and other goods, with favorable factors supporting the rise in liquid ammonia prices. The rise in upstream liquid ammonia prices has positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate is supported to rise.

Recently, downstream on-demand procurement has been the main focus, with little change in demand. However, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia has increased, and the price of nitric acid has mainly increased. The positive support is relatively strong. Ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may slightly increase in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On August 21, the price of pure benzene was 7855 yuan/ton, and on Friday (August 25), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from last week and 2.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was at 7850 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 100 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yesterday’s night trading negotiation was around 7920 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in East China will fluctuate in the morning.

Some institutions believe that OPEC+may need to further reduce production, and there is still uncertainty about the outlook for local demand, leading to a slight increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 10 rose by $0.16 per barrel or 0.20% to $79.05 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 10 rose by $0.15 per barrel, or 0.18%, at $83.36 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2310, fell 12.1 yuan to 625.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.6 yuan to 626.7 yuan/barrel in the evening trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the pure benzene market in East China experienced a volatile decline, with downstream customers seeking bargains to stock up, and spot resources trading was weak. Market participants were mainly on the sidelines. The quotation from Shandong Refinery continued to decline, and the daily transaction volume was slightly higher than the demand, with a decrease in transaction volume.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, the domestic carbon black market has remained stable and slightly declined during the cycle. On August 21, the domestic carbon black N220 quotation was 10166 yuan/ton, mainly due to the continued decline in raw material coal tar prices in some regions, which has provided cost support for carbon black enterprises.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, as of August 21, the market price of coal tar was 4760 yuan/ton, and the price of coal tar has decreased during the cycle. Downstream products continue to decline, and downstream factories are facing increased losses. The overall buying atmosphere for raw coal tar downstream factories remains sluggish. Under the continuous fermentation of bearish factors, it is expected that the coal tar market price will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a decent level of operation, but they have a strong resistance to high priced carbon black sources, and their purchasing enthusiasm is average. They often maintain a low price state for inquiries, and there is currently no significant benefit on the demand side. Recently, the price policy has remained unchanged, and the activity of factory procurement has decreased compared to the previous period. Terminal demand is in a weak and difficult to improve stage.

Overall, under the strong bearish atmosphere in the market, incoming inquiries have maintained a suppressed attitude, and demand is sluggish and difficult to improve. The bearish news on the market is widespread, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will operate weakly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.18% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 93%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. Inventory continues to rise, overall at over 170000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been average recently. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly. Although supported by higher upstream propylene and increased terminal operating rates, the efforts are limited. The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has significantly affected the compression of acrylonitrile, leading to a decrease in prices.

Last week, the price of butadiene remained stagnant. The high crude oil prices loosened during the week, weakening support for sellers’ mentality. In addition, due to the increase in spot prices in the early stage, the acceptance of high priced goods by terminals has decreased. In the second half of the week, trading has been cold, and the market is under pressure. The domestic butadiene market may enter a consolidation market.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent decline in styrene market prices has led to a pullback. Recently, downstream demand has continued to be weak in the early stage, and the cost of pure benzene remains strong. However, the loosening of crude oil prices weakens the confidence of operators, and it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market may weaken due to the long short tug of war.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to narrow range consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from August 11 to August 18, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene fluctuated and decreased, with 7268.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week and 6968.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decrease of 4.13%.

In terms of crude oil: Since the beginning of this week, crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days, with a slight increase on Thursday. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $84.12 per barrel. Crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days. Recently, due to weak economic data in China, coupled with unstable banking in Europe and America, concerns about the global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, The crude oil price closed continuously lower. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have played a supportive role in oil prices. In addition to the optimistic expectation of China’s oil demand growth, which continues to boost oil prices, during the summer demand peak season in the northern hemisphere, there are still positive factors for international oil prices. Thursday’s closing price rose, and overall, international oil prices are still at a high level.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 150 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7833 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for six consecutive weeks, and the price has slightly declined this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the overall performance of the pure benzene market this week was weak, and the macro market news at the beginning of the week was generally weak. The crude oil market fell for three consecutive days, and the external market of pure benzene fell, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market, with prices slightly declining. The overall performance of the downstream is also weak, with some styrene and other devices being shut down for maintenance. The market’s expectation of future demand is weak, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market. The overall weak trend of the industrial chain runs, and by Friday, with the strength of styrene, the pure benzene market has slightly rebounded, and market prices have slightly rebounded.

This week, the overall operation of the pure benzene industry chain was weak, and the hydrogenation benzene market followed the decline. Under the influence of upstream factors, the overall auction price of crude benzene this week decreased, with Shanxi region executing 6800-6900 yuan/ton and Shandong region executing 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to last week. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have been boosted by the downward trend in raw material coking coal prices this week. Currently, the cost of entering the furnace has decreased, corporate profits have recovered, and the comprehensive operating rate has significantly increased. The supply of crude benzene during the week was relatively loose compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the start of construction has slightly declined this week, and the overall demand is still good. However, there is a strong mentality towards holding down the price of raw material crude benzene, and the enthusiasm to participate in the auction has significantly decreased this week. In the future market, the price of pure benzene is currently fluctuating at a high level, and the overall industry chain still has support. However, the downstream price pressure mentality is strong, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is declining. Without demand support, it is expected that there may be some downward space in the crude benzene market next week.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of PET water bottles has been stable, with an average price of 7320.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On August 13th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 669 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.70% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a sulfuric acid price of 178.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 60.96% year-on-year.

The upstream market has significantly increased, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 973.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.29%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 13.86% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9483.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 7.16% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 16000.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 11.44% year-on-year. The downstream market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on August 7th, and the average price on August 11th was 8242 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.17%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9012 yuan/ton on August 7th, and 9000 yuan/ton on August 11th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.14%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9237 yuan/ton on August 7th, and the average price on August 11th was 9187 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.54%.

This week’s polyethylene narrow adjustment. In terms of cost: This week, international crude oil showed an upward trend, which has a certain supporting effect on polyethylene prices. In terms of supply: The overall change in domestic polyethylene supply is not significant, and production is expected to increase next week. The demand for plastic film is in the off-season, and the follow-up of greenhouse film orders is slow. There is a good demand for packaging bags and wrapping films.

It is expected that polyethylene production will increase next week, and demand is expected to advance positively. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate and adjust, with little change.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, this week (7.29-8.4), cost driving was dominant, and the overall price of raw silk increased. Some enterprises held prices and were not in a hurry to sell. In the face of rigid demand, the enthusiasm of weaving enterprises to purchase goods has increased recently, and the price of dried cocoons has also turned red. As of August 4th, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 475000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to last week and 9.26% year-on-year; The average market price of dried cocoons is 154000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22% compared to last week and 8.45% year-on-year.

On the spot market, the trade circulation atmosphere is relatively warm, and the purchase and sales of cocoon silk continue to maintain a fierce atmosphere. Some silk reeling enterprises are accelerating their stocking speed, and weaving enterprises are also accelerating their stocking progress. The number of high-quality raw silk transactions continues to increase compared to last week. In the atmosphere of rising cocoon and silk prices, the cumulative increase in silk wool prices from June to July was basically around 10000 to 20000 yuan. However, it is worth noting that as the basic raw material for silk wool quilts, the price of tussah silk wool has not changed much in the past two months. The price of dried cocoons continues to rise, including regions such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Yunnan, where spot purchases are active.

On the summer cocoon market, the fresh cocoon market volume in major production areas such as Guangxi continues to decline, continuing the summer cocoon style. Summer cocoons in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other regions continue to be listed one after another, creating a strong atmosphere of panic buying. Mulberry orchards in more areas of the southern main production areas are entering a recuperation period, preparing for the autumn cocoon market in late August. With the continuous increase in silk prices, it is expected to push up the price of autumn cocoons for mass release in August.

Amidst the rapid price increase in the front-end, weaving companies have raised some product prices this week. Although the impact of the increase in raw silk raw materials is evident, some companies can only place orders at the original price, and the overall order situation is still not ideal. It is understood that there are also some companies that sell well in the wholesale process of silk wool products, such as real silk home textile companies, and real silk underwear companies, which have slightly adjusted the prices of their products. However, similar to the recent trend of some commodities, if the overall demand does not increase and profits are compressed, will the power of replenishing raw materials in the future decrease? It needs to be closely observed.

According to convention, the fabric clothing “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is expected to start around mid August, and the off-season in July is approaching its end. However, as August enters this week, in addition to the highlights of the situation, weaving enterprises still report that the order arrival situation is not satisfactory. In the commodity market, overall commodities rebounded in July, rising for two consecutive months, and most of them have corrected and consolidated today. The price increase during the traditional off-season still requires order fulfillment during the market transition from off-season to peak season from August to October.

Comparing the price data since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the price of raw silk has reached a new high since 2020. The continuous supply situation of cocoons since last year, combined with El Ni ñ o weather, has resulted in strong cost support for cocoon silk varieties. However, at present, the demand for terminal weaving is relatively weak, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the market is still accumulating. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the absence of obvious new news and the interweaving of long and short positions, raw silk prices may exhibit a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a sulfuric acid price of 160.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 71.22% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 846.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 886.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.40% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 9566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9483.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.87%. Weekend prices fell by 7.16% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16000.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 11.44% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of August 4th, the spot nickel quotation was 174500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

On a macro level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 46.4% in July, slightly lower than expected and shrinking for nine consecutive months; Manufacturing activity in the eurozone experienced its fastest contraction since May 2020 in July. The recent PMI data released in Asia shows that manufacturing activity in China, Japan, and South Korea remains weak, suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Recently, there have been frequent positive policies in China, but the bullish sentiment has basically materialized, making it difficult for market confidence to further rebound before more positive policies are announced.

In terms of supply: Russian nickel long-term cooperation orders flow in, and customs clearance conditions are not limited by whether imports are profitable, supplementing domestic supply. There is an oversupply of domestic resources, and various factories and warehouses have accumulated some. The nickel production in Jinchuan has decreased, and the Xinjiang smelter has resumed production; Small and medium-sized smelters such as Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have all maintained stable production; The production of two large nickel enterprises in Zhejiang and Hubei continues to climb; The new production line in Guangxi last month continued to ramp up production this month. In August 2023, refining nickel enterprises in various regions will continue to increase production. After the resumption of production at Xinjiang nickel factories, it is expected to recover to over 1000 tons per month. It is expected that domestic refined nickel production will continue to increase by 5.93% to 22330 tons in August. In addition, the electric nickel project jointly constructed by Chinese enterprises in Indonesia is expected to be officially put into operation in August, with a full production capacity of up to 50000 tons per year.

Demand: downstream stainless steel. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel fell 2.3% on a weekly basis to 1.003 million tons, dominated by the digestion of 400 series resources. Downstream demand is still dominated by Major appliance, and according to Industry Online, air conditioning will still maintain a certain growth rate in September. New energy vehicles. According to the Passenger Transport Association, the retail volume of Alternative fuel vehicle in China’s market in July was 647000, up 33% year on year and down 3% month on month; The transaction of Nickel(II) sulfate in the market was weak, the price continued to fall, and the production of ternary precursors weakened month on month.

In summary, the domestic supply of pure nickel is relatively loose, and the supply of imported nickel is gradually increasing, limiting the shipment volume of traders. Demand differentiation, supported by low inventory, is expected to be dominated by short-term wide fluctuations in nickel.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly decreased this week. As of the 31st, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the 23rd price of 9585.71 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.59%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9200 to 9600 yuan/ton. Poor demand has led to severe losses for hydrofluoric acid enterprises. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for market, resulting in a decrease in spot supply of hydrofluoric acid and a weak order situation for manufacturers. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market remains sluggish, with raw material fluorite prices slightly declining and downstream refrigerant production declining, Less than 60% of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has started construction, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory, which has affected the weak market situation of hydrofluoric acid.

Raw material side: Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has been temporarily stable, with an average price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of the 31st. This week, the price trend has been temporarily stable, and the operating rate of fluorite enterprises has maintained. Upstream mining is still tight, and outdated mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficient, which is environmentally friendly The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, there is still support for the price of fluorite in the market. The price of raw fluorite has not changed much, and hydrofluoric acid companies are under heavy pressure.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has slightly increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has slightly decreased. In addition, the refrigerant market has experienced a long-term downward trend, approaching quota issuance. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and supply and cost factors are driving refrigerant enterprises to increase prices. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a has increased. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have raised factory prices, but the demand for consumer orders has not significantly improved. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500 to 25500 yuan/ton, and the export is still relatively sluggish. The actual demand has not significantly increased, and the increase in refrigerant prices is limited. The upward trend of some refrigerants has had a certain positive impact on upstream raw materials, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market remains stable, but fluorite companies have a strong intention to increase prices, and the downstream refrigerant industry has slightly declined in production. For hydrofluoric acid procurement, it is light, and hydrofluoric acid inventory is high. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term, with hydrofluoric acid prices mainly fluctuating at low levels.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on July 24th was 2566 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2616 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.95%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on July 24th was 3687 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium prices rose this Monday, while ammonium prices remained stable. There is some support on the cost side, with an increase in downstream inquiries and a positive market atmosphere. The advance order for ammonium nitrate has reached late August, and some manufacturers have suspended or received a small amount of orders. Diammonium is currently in tight supply, with an increase in inquiries and a good performance in the export market.

As of July 28th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2650 yuan/ton, while the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Shandong region is around 2700 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3350-3650 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong region is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s ammonium phosphate analysts believe that recent inquiries in the ammonium phosphate market have been good, with downstream compound fertilizer production rates increasing, demand following up, and market prices pushing upwards. With the support of pending orders, it is expected that the trend of ammonium phosphate market will be dominant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in July. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.53% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises stopped production for maintenance ahead of schedule due to losses, resulting in a decrease in supply and a shortage of goods in the market, leading to an upward trend in the domestic ethanol market. In mid month, downstream inventory is mainly consumed, and price fluctuations are limited. In the latter half of the month, after the price boost, high-end transactions were limited, and demand remained stable in the short term. Cost support was weak, and the ethanol market returned to calm after rising.

In terms of cost, as we enter July, supported by the decreasing supply of high-quality surplus grain in the domestic corn market, grain storage trade is reluctant to sell and prices are high. Ports and downstream deep processing enterprises are raising prices to replenish inventory, driving the domestic corn market prices to continue to be strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on July 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2771.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% compared to the beginning of this month (2760.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, in the early part of the month, domestic ethanol production enterprises gradually entered maintenance, supply decreased, and prices continued to rise. As of the end of July, there have been no significant fluctuations in the domestic ethanol supply side: Hongzhan Laha’s load has been boosted, Shenglong Parking, Jilin Fukang, and Tianyu have maintenance plans. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, there will be a slight reduction in production in the chemical industry in the short term, but the demand loss is limited, and the short-term stable operation is the main demand. The demand for Baijiu is weak, and the short-term demand for ethanol is stable.

Future market forecast shows weakened cost and supply support, and stable demand operation. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly declined this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 162.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 152.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 6.17%. Weekend prices fell 80.46% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 830.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 876.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.62%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.54% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9585.71 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 10.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 15516.67 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 17.76% year-on-year. The downstream market has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend has declined. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has recently risen, while the domestic light rare earth market has risen. On July 23, the rare earth index was 452 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 66.79% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China have all increased. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 560000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the 15th; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 465000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.37% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium metal was 585000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of metal praseodymium was 622500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 472500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price on the 15th.

The recent trend of the light rare earth market has been rising, and the prices of young rare earths in the first half have been declining for a long time. Affected by the increase in inquiries, the prices quoted by the holders are relatively firm, and the actual transaction prices have also increased. Recently, the prices of praseodymium neodymium rare earths have been raised in response to the increase in raw material prices. In mid to late July, some long-term orders were purchased, providing strong support for the light rare earth market, and the price trend of the light rare earth market increased. However, downstream magnetic material companies are very cautious in purchasing due to frequent price fluctuations of praseodymium and neodymium in recent times, and the transaction situation is still subject to certain restrictions. The overall price of rare earth products is mainly rising.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: The supply of rare earth raw materials has been slightly tight in the near future, with orders and reserves of neodymium iron boron enterprises increasing slightly. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise slightly in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded after rising, and spot prices have fluctuated in both directions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.43% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the load in the ABS industry has been increasing recently. In the early stage, there were more enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current operating rate has rebounded to a high of 86%, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. The increase in inventory was significant, with an overall increase of 117000 tons. Recently, supply side support for spot prices has weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this week was average. Among them, the market for raw material acrylonitrile has declined, while the price of cost end propylene has decreased. Due to independent load reduction and unplanned shutdowns in the early stage, acrylonitrile enterprises have some positive supply side effects, but demand is weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment among operators has intensified. The flow of goods on the market is not smooth, and prices have stagnated after falling.

This week, domestic butadiene prices were sideways. The strong prices of external and domestic production enterprises have boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, while the downstream construction and profit situation are still good, and there is some support for demand in the face of the market. With the arrival of imported cargo at the port, port inventory has increased, and some early maintenance equipment has restarted, leading to an increase in domestic production. Supply side expectations have led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in butadiene market prices has weakened.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently risen. In the early stage, international oil prices drove the pure benzene market, with strong cost support, and the styrene market followed suit. Recently, the styrene port went to the warehouse smoothly, and there was export news. It is expected that the short-term styrene Spot market will mainly rise.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have basically completed their stock preparation operations at the beginning of the month, and their enthusiasm has declined. Due to factors such as season and power restrictions, the operating rate is still at a low level. The manufacturer has a cautious mindset and the overall demand needs improvement.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have seen mixed ups and downs, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory has also increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a consolidation market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 14, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 7525.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday.

This week, the enterprise quotation in Epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable, and the market is very competitive. Recently, the price of raw propylene has fluctuated in a narrow range. The price of raw glycerin is mainly stable, and the impact on the cost side is limited. The capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has declined compared with the previous period. The factory production and marketing are under no pressure, supporting the market’s rising mentality. The main downstream epoxy resin market is running strongly, and the purchase of raw materials needs to be followed up. The focus of Epichlorohydrin market negotiation is stable and rising.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on July 13th, the reference price for propylene was 6370.75, a decrease of 2.26% compared to July 1st (6518.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for epoxy resin on July 13th was 12933.33, an increase of 3.19% compared to July 1st (12533.33).

Analysts of Epichlorohydrin from the Business Agency believe that the cost has little impact at present, and the supply and demand support still exists. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to be weak. From July 10th to 14th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16280 yuan/ton to 16066 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.31%, a month on month decrease of 3.33%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.18%. The supply is relatively abundant, traders’ quotations are relatively lower, and the trading atmosphere has weakened.

The supply side and the market supply side are relatively abundant. Shanghai Lianheng 350000+240000 t/a mother liquor unit has been overhauled since June 11, which affects the rectification units of Huntsman Corporation and BASF. In addition to the supporting maintenance, Ningbo Phase I 400000 t/a unit has been shut down for maintenance, the other Phase II 800000 t/a unit has been operated at low load, and Yantai unit has been operated at reduced load, but Shanghai 600000 t/a unit has returned to normal operation.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has seen a significant increase in the domestic market price of pure benzene. The international crude oil price continued to rise, and some downstream ethylbenzene and Caprolactam devices were restarted, increasing the demand for pure benzene. On July 13th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 6397.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45% compared to the beginning of this month (6183.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Currently, there is abundant supply of aniline, with downstream off-season. Downstream factories are not operating high, and demand is weak. The raw material pure benzene has been listed for price increase, resulting in increased costs and a slight increase in domestic aniline prices. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the buying momentum on the demand side is weak, and the demand for the cold industry is slightly shrinking. The peak season demand in the pipeline market has not yet started, and the market follow-up is relatively average, resulting in insufficient overall boosting power. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is bearish.

In the future market forecast, the current transaction is weak, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will mainly be sorted out.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 12th, the price of PET water bottle level has been stable, with an average price of 7190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On July 11th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 652 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.49% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 23.48% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 30, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 4900 yuan/ton, which was 234 yuan/ton higher than that of January 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton), or 8.57%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic market of Dimethyl carbonate in the first half of 2023 is in a fluctuating upward trend. In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market rose and fell, with an overall increase of 2.86% in the second quarter. In January and February, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate was good, and the downstream staged stocking supported the rising market, with an increase of 3.57% in January and 10.00% in February. In March, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate weakened, the demand support became loose, and the market price fell, down 6.49% in March.

In the second quarter of 2023, the Dimethyl carbonate market will first fall and then rise, with an increase of 5.56% in the second quarter. In April, Dimethyl carbonate market fluctuated slightly, and the demand support was limited, with a decline of 0.69% in April. In May, the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to run downward, and the effective support in the market was insufficient, with a decline of 4.20% in May. In June, the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to rise. Some devices in the plant were shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the plant was tight. The supply side supported the market upward, and Dimethyl carbonate increased by 10.95% in June.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall Dimethyl carbonate market is operating stably. The trading atmosphere in the market is general, the overall supply of the supply side has increased, and a certain wait-and-see atmosphere has been added in the market. The Dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7166 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of 7400 yuan/ton of propylene glycol), the price was reduced by 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the overall market situation of domestic propylene glycol showed a rise followed by a decline, and finally ended with a slight decline. In the first quarter, the overall propylene glycol market showed an upward trend, with tight spot supply of propylene glycol and good downstream demand. Supported by both supply and demand, propylene glycol increased by 8.11% in January and 16.94% in February. In March, downstream demand for propylene glycol weakened, and propylene glycol opened a high point and fell back, with a decrease of 12.54% in March.

In the second quarter, the overall market situation of propylene glycol showed a slight increase followed by a weak decline. In April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the supply of propylene glycol tightened. The supply side supported the upward movement of the market, and propylene glycol rose 4.38% in April. In May, downstream demand for propylene glycol did not boost significantly, with loose support on the demand side, resulting in a decrease of 8.02% in propylene glycol. In June, the propylene glycol market continued to operate in a weak downward trend, with insufficient effective support on the market. In June, propylene glycol fell by 10.79%.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is relatively light, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. New orders are generally traded, and the propylene glycol data analyst from the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the domestic Shandong propane market saw a rebound in growth and quickly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on July 3rd was 3963 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 3780 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 1.6%, a decrease of 37.26% compared to the same period last year.

As of July 7th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 7th

East China/ 3750-3800 yuan/ton

North China/ 3850-3950 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3700-3850 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 3800-3850 yuan/ton

This week (7.3-7.7), the Shandong propane market continued to decline, with prices rapidly falling. Due to refineries raising prices one after another over the weekend, downstream consumers have a clear resistance towards high priced goods, resulting in a significant decrease in buying gas. In addition, the impact of imported low priced goods has increased inventory pressure on refineries. In order to stimulate sales, prices have rebounded this week.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in June 2023, with propane at $450 per ton, a decrease of $105 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $440 per ton, a decrease of $115 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, after the price correction, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has improved, and it is expected that the propane market will be slightly weaker in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14140 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 180 yuan/ton compared to June 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 14300 yuan/ton), a decrease of 1.26%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that from June to present (6.1 to 6.30), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has experienced a slight decline. In early June, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC continued to be weak. Shandong large factories slightly lowered the price of organic silicon DMC, leading to a slight decline in the overall market. As of June 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14000-14500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.84% in the first ten days.

In late June, the overall organic silicon DMC market continued to decline slightly. Due to the continued weak demand and general support for raw materials, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market remained mainly light. Some organic silicon DMC suppliers narrowly lowered the prices of organic silicon DMC by around 100-200 yuan/ton. Before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply and demand news of the organic silicon DMC market was relatively calm, with downstream demand being cautious. The overall market consolidation and operation were sideways. As of June 30, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14000-14300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.26% during the month.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average, with limited trading of new orders on the market. Weak costs also provide limited cost support for organic silicon DMC. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price List of Ethylene Oxide in June

At the end of May, large factories lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton. In June, epoxy ethane basically maintained a horizontal operation of 6000 yuan/ton. According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on June 30, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

Entering July, due to the impact of the hot weather, there are expectations of further reduction in demand release from downstream construction sites, and off-season expectations for terminal demand, which may lead to a loosening of the current supply-demand balance trend of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer. The expected decrease in production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises may lead to a decrease in demand for ethylene oxide.

Low load operation of large factories

At present, the price of ethylene oxide is relatively low, and some manufacturers have hit the cost line, facing increasing pressure to lose money. From the supply side perspective, in June, some ethylene oxide factories had passive production reductions or proactive load reduction to balance enterprise benefits. In addition, some production factories switched to producing ethylene glycol or adjusted their own usage ratio to alleviate production and sales pressure. The low load operation of large factories in July may continue.

The price of ethylene oxide in July is expected to maintain stable operation

Overall, the supply and demand of ethylene oxide are weak, and the price is horizontally stagnant at a low level. From the perspective of cost, the domestic mainstream processes are divided into Naphtha, ethane/mixed alkane, external ethylene production, MTO route, etc; Among them, the Naphtha route accounts for about 49%, followed by ethane and ethylene production. The cost of ethylene production is relatively favorable, and the cost pressure on crude oil routes is relatively high.

In the short term, the cost support for ethylene oxide is weak, and the supply and demand pattern is also difficult to improve. It is expected that the price will continue the current horizontal trend, and the price of ethylene oxide is likely to maintain stable operation in July.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic market price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of Ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, 0.74% higher than the beginning price of 4030 yuan/ton, and 12.69% lower than the same period last year.

In June, the domestic Ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was normal, the terminal upstream coal price rose, the price of nitric acid fell slightly, the price of liquid ammonia declined, the downstream demand was normal, and the price trend of Ammonium nitrate market rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of Ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the downstream nitro compound fertilizer purchase is general, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry purchase remains low. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of Ammonium nitrate is mainly volatile. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5000 and 5100 yuan/ton, in Shandong region, between 4000 and 4100 yuan/ton, and in Hebei region, between 4000 and 4100 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China decreased in June, with an average price of 1966.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 3.28% compared to the price of 2033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer prices ranging from 1800 to 2000 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient supply of goods, high price trading is under pressure, high-end prices are mostly sold at reduced prices, while the downstream demand is relatively reduced, the deal on the market is light, and the price of raw nitric acid declines, which has a negative impact on the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price increase of Ammonium nitrate market is limited.

In June, the price trend of domestic liquid ammonia market significantly decreased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 2700 yuan/ton, a 10% decrease from the initial price of 3000 yuan/ton. As agricultural and industrial demand weakened, the ammonia market continued to hit new lows. The supply in Shandong region has significantly increased. Due to the upward trend in liquid ammonia prices in the early stage, ammonia companies have generally switched from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in inventory backlog and pressure on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Liquid ammonia manufacturers have generally lowered prices. On the demand side, the current agricultural demand is affected by the off-season, downstream procurement is slowing down, and the double pressure of supply and demand has led to a sharp decline in the price of liquid ammonia. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price of Ammonium nitrate has little change.

In the near future, the downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the demand is not improving. In addition, the market price of raw liquid ammonia continues to decline, and the price trend of nitric acid declines. The negative factors are superimposed. The Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of Ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fell in June: urea prices dropped from 2402.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2257.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.04%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 27.25% year-on-year.

On June 27th, the urea commodity index was 104.16, an increase of 0.12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 31.62% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 87.34% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in June.

Cost side: Upstream market prices fluctuate with each other

In June, the price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and increased, rising from 3750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3974.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.97%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 32.21% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan Anthracite (washing in quick) fell slightly, from 1160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 920 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 240 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2683.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.56%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 43.78% year-on-year. Overall, there has been a significant decline in upstream urea products and insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine has slightly decreased

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. The price of melamine decreased slightly in June, from 7125.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.37%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market may experience slight fluctuations and gains in mid to early July. The price of upstream LNG has a downward trend, the price of Anthracite has consolidated at a low level, and the cost support is general. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Corn in the north and rice in the south have good fertilizer use, with increasing agricultural demand and industrial demand being the main demand. Urea may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of June 27th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream demand procurement was the main focus.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On June 26, the rubber and plastic index was 643 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.34% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 21.78% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 26, 2023, the factory price reference of domestic industrial Dimethyl carbonate was 5133 yuan/ton, which was 567 yuan/ton higher than that of June 1, 2023 (the reference price of Dimethyl carbonate was 4566 yuan/ton), an increase of 12.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since June (6.1-6.26), the overall market situation of Dimethyl carbonate in China has been rising continuously. In the first ten days of June, some devices in the Dimethyl carbonate plant were shut down for maintenance, and the supply in the plant was tight. The supply side supported the steady rise of the market. As of June 15, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 4800-5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.30% in the first ten days.

In late June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand of Dimethyl carbonate was boosted, the stock was well prepared before the festival, the spot supply of Dimethyl carbonate was tight, the supply and demand transmission was smooth, and the market of Dimethyl carbonate continued to move towards the high-end. As of June 26, the domestic market price of Dimethyl carbonate was around 5000-5300 yuan/ton, with an increase of more than 12% in the month.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream demand for Dimethyl carbonate decreased, and the inquiry heat decreased. In addition, after the Dimethyl carbonate market rose to a high level, the wait-and-see mood in the market became stronger, and the new orders were also closed cautiously. The Dimethyl carbonate mathematician of the business agency believed that in the short term, the domestic Dimethyl carbonate market was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fallen this week. As of June 25th, the spot nickel quotation was 174250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 7.71%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 7 and fallen by 5 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, the US suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled in June, and although hawkish signals were released that there may still be two more rate hikes, the market seems not very satisfied with this. The probability of next month’s rate hike is not yet firmly predicted, and domestic economic stabilization policies have also arrived as expected, providing protection for the recovery. Overall, macro sentiment has rebounded.

In terms of supply: In June, domestic nickel electrowinning continued to increase in volume, with new pure nickel production lines being put into operation as scheduled and refined nickel production increasing slightly. Indonesian nickel production capacity continued to surge, and nickel iron reflux continued to increase, impacting the domestic market. Adequate supply still brought pressure on nickel prices, while Russian nickel supply increased and premiums continued to decrease.

In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel is stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. The production of stainless steel reached a new high in May, and the production schedule remained basically unchanged in June; The order of ternary precursor recovered, and the price of Nickel(II) sulfate stabilized and rose; Alloy and electroplating companies maintain an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.

In summary, the macro economy has rebounded, supply continues to increase, demand is average, and overall nickel inventory is at a low level. There has been a slight rebound in the near future, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China increased from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 24.68% year-on-year. On June 18th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1050 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5524.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5554.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.54%. Weekend prices fell by 33.76% year-on-year. The PVC market price has fluctuated slightly, leading to an increase in downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In late June, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and gains. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. In late June, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from June 9 to June 16, 2023 was slightly reduced, from 5728.75 yuan/ton last weekend to 5416.25 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 5.45%.

In terms of crude oil: During this cycle, crude oil fell first and then rose. Overall, on June 12th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.12/barrel, a decrease of $3.05 or 4.3%, reaching a low point in nearly three months. On June 15th, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures main contract was $70.62 per barrel, an increase of $2.35 or 3.4%. The overall trend of crude oil during the week was volatile.

On June 15th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 70.62 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.35 US dollars or 3.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $75.67 per barrel, an increase of $2.47 or 3.4%. Unexpected retail growth in the United States in May, supported by positive employment data. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has led to a rebound in the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on June 13, 2023, and is currently at 6200 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6400 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6133 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On June 12th, the price of pure benzene was 6442 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 16th), the price of pure benzene was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.68% from last week and 37.37% from the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has been declining for eight consecutive weeks, with both positive and negative trends in recent times.

In terms of industrial chain: the domestic pure benzene market continued to decline in this cycle, crude oil fell deeply at the beginning of the week, and the Asian pure benzene market declined. The domestic pure benzene inventory was high, and the pure benzene market was mixed with bad news. Near the weekend, the market news was that the domestic new devices would be put into production in the later stage, and the market expected loose supply, dragging down the pure benzene market mentality. The price of pure benzene in the week fell to 6100-6170 yuan/ton in East China, 6050-6100 yuan/ton in Shandong. The overall trend of the industrial chain is weak, driving a broad downward adjustment of related commodities this week.

This week, most crude benzene auctions went down, with Shanxi executing 5280-5350 yuan/ton and a decrease of 260-350 yuan/ton. The Shandong region implemented 5460 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 320 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has limited changes this week, while the supply of crude benzene has not changed much. In terms of demand, hydrogenated benzene has continued to decline, causing losses for enterprises. The operating rate has decreased due to increased equipment maintenance. This week, the mainstream factory price of hydrogenated benzene was between 6150 and 6200 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 300 yuan/ton. After the overall performance of the industrial chain was weak and the downstream market continued to weaken, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene decreased, the demand for crude benzene weakened, and the downstream price pressure mentality was strong. This week, most crude benzene auctions went down. Overall, the industrial chain is weakening, and the supply of crude benzene is tight, which has some resilience. However, there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be some room for decline. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the crude benzene market will operate weakly in the near future, with a focus on the trend of crude oil and the impact of downstream demand for pure benzene on the market.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have stabilized at a low level this week, with sulfuric acid prices at 182.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 83.09% year-on-year. On June 11th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 28.33, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 84.94% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 820.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 840.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.44%. Over the weekend, prices fell 78.86% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9657.14 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 17.18% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16133.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 21.75% year-on-year. The downstream market has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late June, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the atmosphere of the domestic BDO market has rebounded. From June 5th to 9th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11078 yuan/ton to 11028 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.45%, a month on month decrease of 12.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.94%.

Some BDO devices have undergone maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply. Suppliers mainly supply contract orders, while spot controlled supply is strong in the market. Downstream small households have a strong demand to replenish their positions, coupled with online auction transaction prices continuing to rise, causing overall market volatility to rise. Some production enterprises have been slow to follow up on prices, and market prices have rebounded towards the weekend.

Supply side,. Short term BDO supply is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak. On June 9th, the benchmark price for calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.76% compared to the beginning of this month (3150.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is operating in a weak trend. On June 9th, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2085.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.43% compared to the beginning of this month (2160.00 yuan/ton). Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the situation in the spandex industry is weak and declining. The Cathay Pacific Xinhua PTMEG device was shut down for maintenance on June 5th, and the Chongqing Jianfeng device was repaired from June 9th to 15th, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion. The PBT industry has a load of nearly 60%, increasing the digestion of raw materials and following up on orders in demand; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 40-50%, and follow-up is required. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the supply volume is still decreasing, and the supplier has a strong mentality of controlling quantity and being reluctant to sell. However, the overall opening of the downstream industry has slightly declined, with a reduction in raw material consumption and a focus on maintaining contract follow-up. BDO analysts from the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, under the influence of comprehensive factors such as the acquisition trend of Spring Cocoon, the continuation of terminal recovery, and the digestion of negative factors affecting the early stage, domestic raw silk prices have continued to rise this week (5.27-6.2). As of June 2nd, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 430550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to last week and a year-on-year increase of 10.96%; The average market price of dried cocoons remained stable at 139700 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.46%;

This week, the spot market of raw silk continued to maintain a pattern of just in demand pickup, and prices have remained relatively stable in recent times. The transaction of high-quality raw silk is average, and the transaction price has not changed much. Some units have almost fully invested in the acquisition of cocoons.

At a time when the national trend of spring cocoon harvest and drying is clear, the purchase and sales of spring cocoons are also shifting from active intentions to actual implementation. In Guangxi region, due to the high temperatures and other weather conditions this week, although the purchase price of dried cocoons has decreased compared to the previous period, the overall cocoon quality indicates that the cost of receiving and drying cocoons for this batch of cocoons may remain unchanged or slightly higher compared to the previous period. From the perspective of some regions such as Sichuan, the direct acquisition of cocoon capital by leading enterprises, coupled with costs such as investment in the base, still results in a relatively high comprehensive conversion price. Cocoon purchases in some major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangsu began this week and are expected to form a comprehensive acquisition situation in the near future. The price of dry cocoons this week has slightly increased compared to last week.

There has been no significant change in the prices of silk and satin for domestic and foreign sales this week, and the difference in prices compared to last week is very small. In the current climate of sluggish terminal consumption, it is difficult to sustain a recovery in actual transactions. Most buyers purchase on demand, and there are few behaviors of hoarding large amounts of inventory. If market demand can gradually start, favorable demand will support prices, and market trading activity will increase. We look forward to ushering in a new market trend.

Analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the spot market prices are relatively strong in consolidation, with insufficient downstream buying gas and overall flat production and sales data. Upstream raw material prices are steadily high, and for a certain period of time, costs can still form support. It is expected that raw silk will continue to be at a high level in the near future, with a strong consolidation path.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of June 2, 2023, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 716.67 yuan/ton, or 10.70%, compared to the price on May 26, 2023 (reference price of 6700 yuan/ton for diethylene glycol).

From the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.27-6.2), the diethylene glycol market experienced a broad decline. This week, international oil prices first fell and then rose, showing fluctuations, and the impact of cost on the diethylene glycol market is limited. The total number of arrivals to the port during the week is relatively large, and the downstream construction level is relatively low. The initial follow-up efforts are average, and the demand cannot be consumed during the cycle. The inventory increase in the main port is significant, and the mentality of the operators is weakening. The focus of negotiations has decreased significantly. The addition of 1 million tons/year EO/EG devices in Sanjiang has recently produced qualified products, increasing market supply pressure and weak market adjustment, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As of this weekend (June 2), the domestic diethylene glycol market price is around 5800-6000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the short term, due to the pressure from the economic downturn, crude oil will still not reduce, and there may be insufficient support for diethylene glycol due to the temporary inability to form a clear operating trend; Although some ships arrive at the port for centralized replenishment, the subsequent arrival volume is limited, and the port inventory fluctuates at a low level. The tight supply situation will continue, and the supply side support will still exist; Terminal demand is weak, and the downstream unsaturated resin market continues to weaken. Currently, the overall capacity utilization rate is 29%, a decrease of 1% compared to the previous cycle. Diethylene glycol analysts from the business community believe that the short-term diethylene glycol market may maintain a weak pattern, specifically focusing on downstream follow-up and the impact of changes in market sentiment.

The price of ethylene glycol in May showed a weak inverted “V” shape

According to data from Business News Agency, as of May 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4103.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 3900-4310 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4000 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On May 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 478 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 483 US dollars per ton.

In May, the price of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, with a trend of “V” in price, and the price continued to move downward at the end of the month.

Ethylene glycol prices may continue to be weak in June

The price of ethylene glycol in June may continue to be weak, for the following reasons:

1. Ethylene glycol port inventory

At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 29th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 933100 tons. After late April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to be depleted, and it has been operating in the range of less than 1 million tons since May. The maintenance of overseas devices in June is relatively low, and the import volume may rebound, which may hinder the process of port inventory destocking.

2. Downstream demand has not changed much

Downstream, the polyester production rate has recently improved, with a polyester production capacity utilization rate of 88.25%, an increase of 2.41% month on month, and a production of 1.2524 million tons, an increase of 2.41% month on month. Next week’s weekly production is expected to be above 1.26 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 89%. The space for further increasing demand will be narrowed in the future.

3. Low spot supply of ethylene glycol rebounds

In the early stage, the coal production plants were restarted one after another due to short shutdowns, and new plants were put into operation. The low supply level slightly rebounded, and the speed of ethylene glycol storage slowed down. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the cash flow of domestic coal production processes has been restored. In June, the coal production plant is expected to restart, and the operating rate of coal production may show a rebound trend. Therefore, the supply of coal to ethylene glycol may increase. However, there is still a high demand for short-term maintenance of oil production equipment, and the supply side increment is expected to be limited. The 1 million ton EG+EO device of Sanjiang Chemical has been successfully started up within a week, and the load is gradually increasing; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan was shut down in early May and is expected to restart in early June.

4. Weak cost support for ethylene glycol

In the macro environment, the prices of terminal raw materials such as coal and crude oil are in a downward or fluctuating trend, making it difficult to focus and amplify the cost impact factors of ethylene glycol in the short term.

Future market forecast

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within the historical relatively low range, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains in the short term.

Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.

At present, oil prices remain volatile, but coal prices continue to operate in a weak manner, and the cost support for ethylene glycol has weakened. It is expected that in the short term, ethylene glycol will weaken in the future market and the probability of fluctuations will increase. The average price range for June is around 3900-4150 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic lead ingot market experienced a volatile trend in May 2023, with prices slightly decreasing. The average price in the domestic market was 15210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15120 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 0.59%.

On May 29th, the lead commodity index was 92.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 23.54% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On May 29th, the base metal index stood at 1163 points, an increase of 13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 28.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.15% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend has been fluctuating in the past three months, with a mixed weekly trend.

In May 2023, the trend of the lead ingot market was volatile, with an overall trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling. The monthly fluctuations were not significant, basically continuing the trend of the first three months, and the off-season trend was relatively strong. The price fluctuation range is between 15110 to 15290 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.59%. The recent changes in the supply and demand side are limited, and the overall market atmosphere remains low in the off-season. The supply performance is decent, and social inventory has also increased to some extent. In terms of demand, the downstream battery industry is generally in the off-season of the industry, with poor performance in the end consumer market. Some small storage companies have recently experienced significant pressure on finished products, high inventory, and a high demand for raw material procurement, with limited demand for lead ingot restocking. Overall, there has been a slight increase in market supply after the holiday, while demand remains weak. In the future, the business community predicts that the trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

Related data:

May 26, 2023 London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory temporarily stabilized at 35475 tons

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2023, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.133 million and 2.159 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 76.8% and 82.7%. From January to April, the production and sales of automobiles reached 8.355 million and 8.235 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.6% and 7.1%, respectively.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s lead production in April 2023 was 614000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.53%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2023, global refined lead production was 1.3525 million tons, consumption was 1.3925 million tons, and there was a supply shortage of 40000 tons. The global lead ore production in March 2023 was 569300 tons.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (5.19-5.26). On May 26th, the average market price was 199310 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the average market price was 196110 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.63%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the overall trend of the tin ingot market is weak, with a narrow weekly increase after four consecutive weeks of decline.

The futures market experienced a volatile trend in the early part of this week, following the overall market fluctuations. By the night of the 24th, non-ferrous metals had generally declined, with only the Shanghai Tin Index rising 0.13%. By the end of the 25th, the main 2306 contract of Shanghai Tin Index closed at 196980 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.17%. On the 24th, the ITA International Tin Association stated that the Ministry of Finance of the Wa State in Myanmar issued a notice on May 20, 2023, regarding the implementation of the “suspension of all mineral resource mining”. The policy of ceasing all exploration, mining, processing and other operations in mines after August 1, 2023 will be implemented. After this news was released, the market raised concerns about tin ore supply in the future, and the futures market rose. However, the recent market atmosphere has been generally negative, and demand expectations have been generally weak, resulting in limited overall market growth. From the perspective of supply and demand, there have been limited changes this week, and manufacturers still have a strong mentality of price competition. The supply at the mining end is tight but has not improved yet, and refineries have a strong reluctance to sell. The changes on the demand side are limited, and the demand is still weak. However, the recent significant rise in the semiconductor industry has given the market a certain boost. In terms of inventory, there has been a significant decline in social inventory this week, and trading has been relatively positive this week, boosted by news from Wa State. Overall, the pattern of weak downstream actual demand continues, and the impact of supply and demand on tin prices is relatively weak.

On May 26, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin storage increased by 35 tons from 1925 tons

On May 28th, the base metal index stood at 1150 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.84% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 79.13% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2023 (5.22-5.26), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were neodymium oxide (5.41%), metallic praseodymium (5.04%), and praseodymium oxide (4.30%). There are 9 products that have decreased month on month, and 2 products that have decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; Top 3 products in decline

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the SG5 PVC carbide method fell this week. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5612 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 5530 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.46% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic spot market continued to fall this week. Overall, the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and downstream procurement is lukewarm and not hot. Inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not good, and actual transactions are cautious and more wait-and-see. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5250-6170 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on May 25th, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.83 per barrel, a decrease of $2.51 or 3.4%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $76.18 per barrel, a decrease of $2.18 or 2.9%. The expectation of further production cuts by OPEC+in oil producing countries has weakened, putting pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3183.33 yuan/ton. The upstream price of blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and the demand for calcium carbide has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that PVC spot prices will continue to decline this week. At present, the demand for PVC spot market is still weak. Downstream and traders are mostly wait-and-see oriented, with poor market confidence and average trading atmosphere. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of carbon black in the downstream market has also risen recently, driven by the rising price of raw material coal tar. On May 24, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8233 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the raw material coal tar market has been operating stably, with good support for carbon black cost side. The prices of coal tar pitch and anthracene oil in the downstream have both risen significantly, driving up the market price of coal tar. Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the market price of carbon black has also risen.

Supply and demand side: Currently, carbon black manufacturers have produced carbon black from high priced raw materials in the early stage, and there is a buildup of inventory on site. Some carbon black enterprises have arranged for a slight reduction in their inventory, while most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. Downstream market procurement is cautious, with most of them focusing on hard demand.

In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable, finished product inventory is at a reasonable level, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions in the carbon black market are relatively weak.

On the whole, the raw material coal tar market is operating stably, and the cost side has some support, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and there is no positive phenomenon in the field. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market continued to decline last week, with overall reductions in various wire drawing brands. As of May 22nd, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7142.86 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -7.32% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the recent low point recovery in the Shandong propylene market has been slight. In the early stage, crude oil continued to weaken and rebounded last week, directly benefiting the spot price of propylene on the cost side. Downstream devices are operating and maintaining, with limited procurement volume, and the export pressure of propylene enterprises remains unchanged. The current market wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong, and it is expected that the Shandong propylene market will be mainly organized and operated. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost side news.

The narrow rebound in propylene prices does not significantly improve the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 75% last week, and recent shipments have remained generally stable with expectations of an increase in supply. There is sufficient supply of goods on the market, and inventory pressure has increased, with poor support from the supply side for spot prices. Meanwhile, the continued decline in futures dragged down the spot market. In terms of demand, the downstream plastic weaving production of the main force has slightly declined, and the operating rate of film material enterprises has recovered to 40%. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is poor, and procurement is mainly maintained for production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7287.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -5.36% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 17.96% compared to the same period last year. Last week, the low load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, continued horizontally, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The current weak demand for fiber materials on the site is dragging down the digestion speed of non-woven end products, and the enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are lagging behind. In addition, the supply side’s bearish situation is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, last week’s melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline. As of May 22nd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8125 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.42%. At present, the domestic health events are stabilizing, and local news in society is unable to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders have given up on orders, indicating that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has recently declined. The raw material propylene market is generally stable at a low level, with poor support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production while receiving goods, with weak demand release. The market is biased towards bearish guidance, and it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of May 18, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared with May 12, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 7866 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.12-5.19), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a weak decline. This week, the overall market situation of n-propanol in Shandong Province showed a downward trend. Some n-propanol suppliers adjusted the price of n-propanol downward by 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, the difference between high and low prices in the market of n-propanol in Shandong Province has widened. As of May 18, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7000-7800 yuan/ton. The market of n-propanol in Nanjing in China is still operating stably. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild. The downstream market of n-propanol mainly purchases according to volume, and new orders are generally traded. The n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of May 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 177350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 5 and fallen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a weak decline in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On a macro level, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation.

In terms of supply: Recently, the Russian Nickel Association has been receiving goods one after another, and coupled with an increase in the output of domestic electrowinning nickel projects, the global low inventory pattern of pure nickel may be difficult to continue. In terms of secondary nickel, Indonesia’s newly invested production capacity has been released, and nickel iron continues to flow back, thus impacting the domestic market.

In terms of demand: The weak real estate sector has led to a decrease in stainless steel production. The demand for new energy vehicles also fell short of expectations. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China still maintain year-on-year growth, the production capacity of battery grade nickel sulfate has shown signs of excess. In addition, the relative advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery in price has reduced the demand for nickel.

In summary, macro data performance is poor, with fundamental nickel prices plummeting but downstream consumption not actively purchasing on dips. The increase in nickel element supply is exerting significant pressure on nickel prices, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

Silicon metal prices continued to decline this week, with high inventory and sluggish demand still being important factors constraining prices. At the same time, the rebound in precipitation in the southwest region and the expected increase in resumption of production are also factors contributing to the downward trend of the spot market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 15460 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.25% on a weekly basis. The futures market fell by -7.06% throughout the week, closing at 14150 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 15th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15100-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15300-15400 yuan/ton, with an average of 15350 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15700-15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

This week, the overall number of silicon metal furnaces was 283. As of May 12th, the silicon metal furnace rate was around 39.42%, with 144 furnaces in Xinjiang, 28 furnaces in Sichuan, and 24 furnaces in Yunnan. Under the current price, the pressure of losses for silicon factories continues to increase, and the supply in the northwest has slightly contracted. The precipitation in the southwest has rebounded, and the number of furnaces in Sichuan has started to increase, while there is currently no intention of opening furnaces in Yunnan.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend, with a significant decline in the market after the holiday. The domestic supply prices generally decreased by around 10000 to 15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream range of single crystal density for models of primary solar energy has reached 145000 to 165000 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, with most manufacturers maintaining normal operation and ample supply performance, with good demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a mainstream quotation of 18200 yuan/ton. The profit compression of aluminum alloy enterprises is significant, and the overall operating rate has declined.

The reference price of domestic silicone DMC market is 14500 yuan/ton. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market has not improved well, and downstream demand is cautious, with demand support still being mainly loose. There has been little change in the construction of organic silicon DMC, and there is still some pressure on the supply side in some regions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, downstream demand has not improved and there is a significant pressure to remove inventory. Currently, the overall supply of metallic silicon continues to exceed demand. At present, production costs in the southern region have decreased, and there is an expectation of resuming production and supply. It is expected that metal silicon will still have a weak downward trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6 to May 12, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene increased narrowly, from 5671.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5703.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.57%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures continued to decline on May 11th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.87 per barrel, a decrease of $1.69 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.98 per barrel, a decrease of $1.43 or 1.9%. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession, and the increase in the number of Americans who apply for unemployment benefits roughly has put pressure on the oil market.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 250 yuan/ton on May 8, 2023, and is currently at 7050 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7170 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7200 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has experienced a decline in recent times, with a continuous decline for four weeks.

In terms of industrial chain: This week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell, and overall declined. The downstream styrene market continued to decline, dragging down the external market of pure benzene. The pure benzene market overall declined this week, and there were rumors that Sinopec’s listed price had a downward expectation, which once again affected the market mentality. After the hydrogenation benzene festival, it followed the overall downward trend of pure benzene, and the current factory price in the main production area is around 6900-7050 yuan/ton.

The crude benzene market has performed differently this week. The Shandong region did not make any adjustments this week, but still implemented post holiday prices. The Shanxi region saw a slight increase in prices, and other price adjustment regions also had limited changes. On the supply side, coking enterprises have slightly declined in production this week, but overall they are still operating in the range of over 75%, and the supply of crude benzene is still relatively loose. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises have slightly declined in construction this week, and under the influence of recent poor market performance, some enterprises have production reduction and maintenance plans in the future, and market demand is expected to decline in the future. Overall, the recent decline in crude oil has led to a narrow decline in the price of pure benzene due to the drag. Downstream demand is expected to be weak, and in the future, the business community predicts that the price of crude benzene will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, with room for decline.

Gold prices hit a new 10-year high

Gold prices hit a new 10-year high. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 452.75 yuan/g on May 5, 2023, 1.81% higher than the average price of the spot market before the festival, and 3.03% higher than the beginning of last month (April 1).

Silver rose 4.58% after the holiday, up 42.49% from its low point in the past year

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5839.33 yuan/kg on May 5, 2023, 4.58% higher than the average price of spot market before the festival, 10.18% higher than the beginning of last month (April 1), and 9.25% higher than the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1). The low point in the past year appeared on July 18, 2022, and the current price has increased by 42.49% compared to the low point.

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise.

Policy logic

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25BP in May, and Powell’s comments on further interest rate policy were dove like, leading to expectations of easing monetary policy tightening in the future. The end of the bearish period is a positive one; Coupled with the renewed concern over the US banking crisis during holidays, concerns about regional banks and debt ceilings in the US have led to an increase in market risk aversion, and precious metal prices have once again reached new highs. Overall, the short-term interest rate hike cycle is still ongoing, and the upward space for precious metals has always been constrained before the expected rate hike is falsified. The pullback in precious metal prices on Friday night trading was mainly due to stronger than expected US employment data, with non farm employment data showing that US employers increased their recruitment and wages in April. This has cooled market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Although Friday’s employment data will not lead to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in June, it is enough to calm those who are eager for the Fed to cut rates soon. The longer US interest rates remain high, the more pressure they put on non interest bearing gold.

Fundamental logic

1. Domestic consumption of precious metals has improved

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in the first quarter of 2023 was 291.58 tons, an increase of 12.03% compared to the same period in 2022.

Among them: 189.61 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%; 83.87 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 20.47%; Industrial and other gold consumption reached 18.10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%.

2. Strong demand for central bank purchases

The global central bank’s gold purchase volume reached a record high of 1136 tons in 2022, and this trend is still continuing in 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, global central banks maintained net purchases of gold, with central banks and other institutions purchasing 228 tons of gold in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 176%. Among them, the Singapore Monetary Authority purchased 51.8 tons of gold in the first two months of this year; The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months from November 2022 to March 2023, with a total increase of 57.85 tons in the first quarter. By the end of March, China’s gold reserve had reached 2068.38 tons.

3. Year-on-year growth in domestic supply

In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic raw material gold production was 84.972 tons, an increase of 1.571 tons compared to the same period in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.88%. Among them, 66.506 tons of gold from gold minerals and 18.466 tons of non ferrous byproducts were produced. Among them, large gold enterprises (groups) produce 32.717 tons of mineral gold in their mines, accounting for 49.19% of the national total. Overseas mines such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold achieved a mineral gold output of 14.395 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.17%.

In addition, in the first quarter of 2023, the production of imported raw materials was 29.901 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.41%. If this part of the imported raw material production was added, a total of 114.873 tons of gold were produced nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%.

Increased probability of high consolidation of precious metals

At present, the price of precious metals has reached a new decade high. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to relatively full risk aversion, which has been basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

However, the economic vitality demonstrated by domestic consumption during the May holiday, coupled with China’s first quarter economic data growth of 4.5%, partially alleviated concerns about a global economic recession. Coupled with the high interest rate state of the Federal Reserve, this has to some extent suppressed the prices of non bearing asset precious metals.

It is expected that precious metal prices may experience weak upward trend in the short term, with high volatility and consolidation being the main trend, while they remain bullish in the medium to long term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price index of the rare earth market fell sharply in April, and the trend of the domestic rare earth market declined. On April 27, the commodity price index BPI was 967 points, down 24 points from the first day, down 28.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1343 points (2021-10-19), and up 46.52% from the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metallic praseodymium neodymium in China have significantly decreased. As of the 28th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 540000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 13.94% in April; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 435000 yuan/ton, which decreased by 16.75% in April; The price of neodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 18.02% in April; The price of neodymium metal was 600000 yuan/ton, and the price decreased by 16.08% in April; The price of metal praseodymium was 610000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12.23% in April; The price of praseodymium oxide was 455000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.95% in April.

In early April, the listed prices of rare earths in the northern region remained generally stable, with prices higher than market expectations. The light rare earths market stabilized after the decline, but the continued lack of downstream demand after the Qingming Festival intensified the wait-and-see sentiment of buyers, and the light rare earths market continued to decline. The order situation in the domestic terminal market has not significantly improved. Overall, the order volume has decreased, and large manufacturers have a clear competitive advantage. Some small and medium-sized neodymium iron boron enterprises are facing operational difficulties. In addition, the operation of enterprises with export orders is not ideal, and due to the drastic fluctuations in raw material prices, the purchasing party has a serious resistance mentality. The order situation of downstream magnetic material enterprises has remained sluggish, with magnetic material factories mainly consuming existing inventory. The actual transaction price of rare earths continues to shift downward, putting pressure on the rare earth market. The pessimism in the rare earth market is heavy. Most of the operators continue to be bearish on the short-term price of rare earth. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of the domestic rare earth market continues to fall.

The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium series in China has decreased, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 1.905 million yuan/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of 8.19% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy was 1.875 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.09% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.63 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.07% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide prices of 8.4 million yuan/ton and metal terbium prices of 10.75 million yuan/ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, the downstream procurement is very cold, and the oversupply has caused the market price to fall. In addition, there is an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, and the supply of rare earth is sufficient. The recovery of the rare earth terminal industry is slow, and transactions are scarce. The rare earth market prices continue to decline.

According to statistics, although the demand for new energy vehicles is moderate, and the production and sales increased in March, the downstream permanent magnet procurement is very scarce, and the price of rare earth market is still not optimistic.

At the end of March, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice on the total control indicators for the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023: the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2023 was 120000 tons, an increase of approximately 19% compared to last year, including 109057 tons of rock and mineral rare earth, an increase of 22% compared to last year; Ionic rare earth ore is 10943 tons, a decrease of 5% compared to last year. The mining output of rare earth has risen sharply, which has hit market confidence in some ways, and the price of rare earth has continued to decline.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, downstream rare earth merchants have been purchasing weakly, and demand is unlikely to improve. In addition, upstream supply is sufficient, the supply-demand contradiction is sharp, and the transaction situation is not good. In addition, the second quarter is gradually in the off-season of the rare earth industry, and the decline of the light rare earth market is difficult to change in the short term.