According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite this week was temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2768.75 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 2768.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 5.81%.

This week, the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable. Recently, some fluorite devices in the field have been shut down, the supply of fluorite in the field is tight, the downstream is mainly based on demand, and the transaction is normal. Recently, there are many orders. Due to the tight supply of raw ore, the spot in the field is slightly tight, and the price trend of fluorite in the field remains high. Recently, some fluorite manufacturers shut down their units for maintenance, and the mine and flotation operation in the field have declined slightly. The goods delivery in the fluorite field has improved. In addition, the fluorite export has increased, and the fluorite market price has temporarily stabilized. This week, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly stable, and the terminal downstream is mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2650-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-2800 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite price trend is stable.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite has increased slightly. As of the end of the weekend, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 10780 yuan / ton, and the price trend this week increased by 0.09%. The stable price of hydrofluoric acid has little impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. This week, the market of downstream refrigerant products is temporarily stable, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remains low, and the recent sales of the automobile industry is general. However, the production of refrigerant manufacturers is general, the refrigerant market is stable, and the demand is mainly based on demand purchase, and the refrigerant industry market changes little. As a whole, the refrigerant market remains at a low level, the price of chloroform fluctuates in a narrow range, and the cost of the refrigerant industry changes little. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable. The major refrigerant mainstream manufacturers are still operating at a low level. The market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand of R22 market application field increases, and the enterprise quotation is temporarily stable. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 17000-19000 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a price trend increased slightly, the trichloroethylene price remained low, the cost support was still in place, the R134a market price increased slightly, and the trading focus was still low. At present, the market price of R134a is in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the actual transactions of enterprises are mostly profitable, the downstream refrigerant market is slightly rising, and the fluorite price trend is temporarily stable.

In general, the downstream refrigerant industry has a slightly higher price. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market is tight, but the supply of raw ore is slightly tight recently. The merchants mainly purchase on demand. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic PA66 market has risen recently, and the spot prices of various brands have increased. As of August 22, the average ex factory price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 21500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, although the recent performance of domestic adipic acid is weak, the market tends to build a bottom and stabilize. At the beginning of last week, the market rebounded slightly, and the price stabilized at the weekend. The operating rate of adipic acid is low, and the inventory pressure of the manufacturer is slightly relieved. In the later stage, pure benzene is expected to bottom out, which may boost the confidence of the downstream to a certain extent. Cost and supply will bring rebound demand for adipic acid. However, terminal consumption is still weak, and downstream factories purchase on demand. The shipment of this foreign-made adiponitrile was carried out step by step and began to replace some imported sources.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market is still weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weak. In terms of industrial operation rate, as the profit of PA66 enterprises continues to be under pressure, the load level of domestic PA66 industry is low, and some regions have policies such as power limitation and peak shift production, the current market spot supply shrinks, and the easing of supply pressure boosts the spot market. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, terminal enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and they are still resistant to high price goods. The traditional off-season is coming to an end, and it takes time for downstream factories to expand their demand. Merchants tried to increase their shipments, and the on-site transactions were slightly light. The reduction of low-end goods supply strengthens the mentality of merchants.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 has risen recently. The market of adiponitrile at the raw material end is weak, and the cost end of PA66 is not strongly supported. The load of PA66 enterprises is on the low side, the situation of excess supply on the site is beginning to improve, and the demand side is generally taking goods. It is expected that PA66 will continue to rise in the short term due to the reduction of supply and the approaching peak season.

This week, DBP prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DBP price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 22, DBP price was 8783.33 yuan / ton, up 2.13% from 8600 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. The plasticizer industry chain started to decline, and the DBP price increased.

The operating rate of high-temperature power limited enterprises decreased

Affected by high temperature and drought, factories in Sichuan and Chongqing have been shut down continuously. On August 21, Sichuan launched the first level emergency response for emergency energy supply guarantee. Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Chongqing and Shanghai all have different power limitation measures. Due to the impact of the restricted film, the operating rate of enterprises and end users in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises was as low as 40%.

This week, the price of n-butanol surged

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of n-butanol rose by a shock this week. On August 22, the price of n-butanol was 6800 yuan / ton, up 3.03% from 6600 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. N-butanol surged, and the market as a whole was in a weak consolidation operation. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the field was relatively light, the downstream stock preparation rhythm was calm, and most of them were just needed to purchase. The operating rate of n-butanol enterprises with high temperature and limited power decreased, and the price of n-butanol surged. The pressure of n-butanol decline in the future still exists.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 22, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8100 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the raw material cost of DBP was strongly adjusted. The driving force for DBP’s rise in the future remains.

This week, PVC prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 22, the PVC price was 6325 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 6516.67 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. Affected by the high temperature, some regions have limited power and production, the operating rate of PVC enterprises has decreased, the price of PVC has fluctuated and dropped, the demand for DBP has decreased, and the pressure on DBP in the future has increased.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, due to the impact of high temperature limit, enterprises in the DBP industry chain have increased production and maintenance, and the supply of DBP has decreased; Power rationing affects the start-up of upstream raw material enterprises, the price of raw materials n-butanol and isooctanol fluctuates and rises, and the DBP cost rises; The operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased, the demand for PVC was weak, and the DBP price fluctuated and rose. In the future, power rationing will spread to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The industrial chain starts to decline in an all-round way, plasticizer demand is weak, raw material prices are falling, DBP costs are falling, PVC starts to decline, DBP demand is weak, DBP demand is weak, and costs are falling. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and fall.

According to the data monitored by the business association, the PP market has fallen recently, and the spot price of the wire drawing brand has decreased. As of August 23, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7983.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 3.13% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the propylene market has fallen recently. The downstream demand is not as expected, the pressure of propylene enterprises to take goods is not reduced, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is difficult to change, and the end-users just need to purchase, and most of them are small. On the supply side, the maintenance equipment of many parties has been resumed one after another, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. Under the situation of increased supply in the future, it is expected that the propylene price may further fall.

The price of propylene fell, and the international oil price fluctuated and fell, so the support of PP cost side was poor. In terms of industrial load, recently, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has increased steadily, but the proportion of wire drawing material production allocation is at a low level of 25% in the month, and the inventory has decreased in a narrow range. Generally speaking, although there is long-term supply pressure, the spot is relatively tight. On the downstream side, although the wire drawing material terminal factory is affected by certain high temperature and limited film, from the perspective of market performance, the purchase follows a narrow recovery. Traders have a general attitude, and the offer is subject to the market. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will be stronger in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 23, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream price of Z30S (fiber) offered by domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 2.83% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of – 5.70% compared with the same period of last year. In the early stage, the load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was maintained as a whole, and the demand and operation of end-users continued the off-season mode of large-scale enterprises maintaining production and small and medium-sized enterprises reducing the load. The digestion speed of non-woven fabrics of downstream products is general, and the enterprises reduce the price for shipment, and the replenishment operation of fiber and PP is biased towards bulk orders. It is expected that the fiber market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the recent meltblown PP market has declined. As of August 23, the average price of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9166.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 2.65% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, and down by – 3.34% year-on-year. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the recent explosive development in neighboring Japan. There is a rebound in some areas of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not high. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, and the domestic and foreign demand has not been significantly helped, which does not support the spot price. There is sufficient inventory of meltblown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the polypropylene market has stabilized after the recent decline, the raw material propylene market has fallen, and the cost side of PP is not well supported. In recent days, the demand of terminal enterprises has recovered in stages, and the offers of merchants follow the market. It is expected that the recent PP market will be dominated by strong consolidation and operation.

According to the data of business agency, as of August 21, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6520.00 yuan / ton (tax included), which was stable compared with the price of 6520.00 yuan / ton on August 15.

On August 21, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 2.69% from the highest point 135.70 in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 186.57% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is limited. According to the business news agency, as of August 21, the price of 180CST self-contained low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan District of China National combustion Corporation was 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self-contained low sulfur fuel oil was 6650 yuan / ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton, and the price of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6550 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which once again triggered the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which made the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

The decrease of fuel oil inventory in Singapore supports the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development bureau (ESG): as of the week of August 17, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory dropped 968000 barrels to a four week low of 16.699 million barrels; The inventory of medium distillate increased by 400000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 7.802 million barrels.

Future forecast: at present, the ship fuel cost is strong, which has a boosting effect on the ship fuel market. The domestic ship fuel market is mainly on the sidelines, and the transaction is cautious. The terminal demand is not significantly favorable, and the purchase is just needed. This week, the overall price of ship fuel market remained stable. At present, the market price of 180CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 120cst low sulfur fuel oil is about 6600 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be sorted out in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 19, 2022, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 15 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8200 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 2.44%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (August 15-august 19), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed an upward trend. At the beginning of this week (August 15), the mainstream price of n-propanol in the domestic Shandong region remained stable at around 7500-7650 yuan / ton. Starting from Tuesday, Shandong large manufacturers steadily increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by around 100-200 yuan / ton. Driven by large manufacturers, the market center of n-propanol gradually moved upward. As of August 19, the mainstream market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is 7800-8000 yuan / ton, the high end price is around 8500 yuan / ton, and the barrel price is around 9500 yuan / ton. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the price change of raw materials and shipment situation in the future.

Forecast of n-propanol future market trend

At present, in the domestic market, the downstream demand of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the supply and demand transmission is smooth. The analysts of the business association n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly stabilize and consolidate the bank, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 12, the average price in the domestic market was 22766.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 22400-22500 yuan / ton. This week, the magnesium ingot price fell first and then stabilized. The downward trend narrowed, and the early price fell below the cost line, resulting in an increase in the willingness of magnesium plants to stabilize the market.

Supply and demand

The supply side of magnesium ingots is still at a high level. Although the production reduction of magnesium plants increases under the pressure of high-temperature factory operation in summer and poor sales of blue carbon, the overall market mentality is empty due to the continued weakness of the demand side. The oversupply of magnesium is still an important contradiction in the current market.

Upstream and downstream

In the coke market, this week’s first round of increase landed. On Tuesday, the first round of increase of coke, which had been preheated for five days, landed completely. The range of this round of increase was 200-240 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of ferrosilicon has rebounded, and the futures market has rebounded after a continuous decline. However, most enterprises are still on the edge of profit and loss, and the spot price of ferrosilicon may continue to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

The downstream magnesium powder and magnesium alloy are slightly adjusted, and the enterprises mostly produce according to the single order, so the demand for magnesium ingots is general.

Future forecast

The weakness of downstream demand led to the downward pressure on the price of magnesium ingots. With the continuous decline of the price, the magnesium plant took into account the small profit or even loss, and the increase of factory maintenance, so the decline of the magnesium ingot Market was postponed. However, in the absence of obvious favorable support in the market, it is expected that the magnesium price will bear certain pressure.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 8 to August 15, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 9980 yuan / ton to 9840 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.40% in the week. The price fell by 9.10% month on month and 3.91% year-on-year.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to weaken in a narrow range, and the cost side lacked support. Due to the deviation of terminal demand, the downstream caprolactam market is weak and falling, the profit space is limited, and the demand for external mining is weak. However, the spot supply of cyclohexanone is small and the decline is relatively small.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 15:

Region, price

In East China, 10100-10200 yuan / T cash will be delivered

In South China, 10200-10300 yuan / T cash will be delivered

Shandong Province, 9800-9900 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene was lowered by 500 yuan / ton for two times to 7950 yuan / ton.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam continues to fall. The spot supply of caprolactam market is sufficient, especially in the north, where the number of construction projects remains high. Enterprises actively ship and reduce inventory, while the demand side is flat.

The raw material pure benzene market still has downward expectations, while the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market will still be weak and downward.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the dichloromethane market declined slightly this week (August 8-august 15). As of August 15, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2912 yuan / ton, down 3.32% from 3012 yuan / ton last Monday.

This week (8.8-8.15), the domestic methane chloride construction started at 70-80%, and there is still pressure on the supply side, which restricts the dichloromethane market.

This week (8.8-8.15), the spot price of methanol fell, and the cost continued to weaken. According to the business agency, as of August 15, the spot price of methanol was 2482 yuan / ton, down 2.52% from 2546 last Monday.

The downstream refrigerant R32 industry of dichloromethane has started steadily, but recently it is the traditional off-season for the terminal air conditioning plant, and the actual demand is reduced; In addition, the export performance of foreign trade is stable, and the support for dichloromethane is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business association believe that the supply of methane chloride in China is still loose, and the cost is low. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to weaken in the later period.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic ABS market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 15, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12050 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.63% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell last week. The main reason is that due to the low crude oil price, the center of gravity of the pure benzene market moves downward, it is difficult to support the styrene market, the supply and demand fundamentals are weak, some maintenance units are restarted, the port inventory is rising, and the spot price of styrene is fluctuating and falling.

Recently, the acrylonitrile market has been shaken and consolidated. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be in a loose state, the downstream commencement continues to fall, and the market transaction is deadlocked. However, with the acrylonitrile price falling to the low level near 9000 yuan / ton, the downstream replenishment has increased. At present, the price of acrylonitrile has dropped to a stage low, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period.

Last week, the decline of the domestic butadiene market slowed down. Although Sinopec and other major production enterprises lowered their factory prices several times this week, the market prices in some areas rebounded narrowly due to the auction results of Luqing, and the market speculation atmosphere was strong. At the same time, the current butadiene market has dropped to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment sentiment is obvious. Therefore, the decline of the butadiene market has slowed down.

Last week, the trend of three materials in the upstream of ABS cost side was weak, and the support of ABS cost side was poor. At the macro level, the chemical industry chain continues to fluctuate under the influence of macro inflation factors. In terms of industrial load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is about 70%, but some production lines are expected to increase the load, and the supply side has limited support for the market. While the industry’s off-season market remains unchanged, the demand of the main downstream home appliances and other industries lags behind, and the on-site consumption is weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. Terminal enterprises buy at low prices and have obvious resistance to high-priced goods.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, which weakened the support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market in the market dominates the market, and it is expected that the spot market of ABS will continue to fall in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fluctuated and consolidated this week (8.5-8.12).

As of August 12, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 9100 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.44% over the 9060 yuan / ton last Friday, and the low point in the week was 8920 yuan / ton. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be loose, the downstream commencement continues to fall, and the market transaction is deadlocked. However, with the acrylonitrile price falling to the low level near 9000 yuan / ton, the downstream replenishment has increased, and the offers of merchants have been slightly adjusted. As of August 12, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile bulk water market in East China was between 8300 and 9200 yuan / ton; Fushun Petrochemical acrylonitrile was listed at 9300 yuan / ton in August; The listed price of acrylonitrile of Jilin Petrochemical in August was 8800 yuan / ton; The spot price of Shandong keluer acrylonitrile in August was 8500 yuan / ton; Shandong Anqing Petrochemical’s acrylonitrile spot price in August was 8500 yuan / ton.

This week (8.5-8.12), the price of raw material propylene increased slightly, and the cost increased slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 12, the domestic propylene price was 7270 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from 7180 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream ABS operating rate dropped to around 70%, the acrylic fiber industry operating at around 60%, the acrylamide industry operating at around 50%, and the three downstream industries of acrylonitrile operating at a low level. The overall weak demand side has insufficient support for acrylonitrile; From the perspective of acrylonitrile supply, the current load of the 780000 T / a acrylonitrile unit of Jiangsu Sibang Petrochemical is around 60-70%; The current load of the 452000 T / a acrylonitrile unit of Jilin Petrochemical Company is around 50%; The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile unit of Shandong keluer Chemical Co., Ltd. is currently in normal operation.

Future forecast: the acrylonitrile analysts of business club believe that the current pressure on supply and cost restricts the action of acrylonitrile. However, the acrylonitrile price has dropped to a stage low, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 11, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 7566 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 7, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 7533 yuan / ton), the price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.44%. Compared with the price on August 1, 2022 (reference price of dimethyl carbonate: 7033 yuan / ton), the price increased by 533 yuan / ton, or 7.58%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in the first week of August, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate rose. After entering this week, on August 8 at the beginning of this week, the center of gravity of dimethyl carbonate continued to move up slightly, and some factories slightly increased the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by about 100 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market was weakened, and the momentum of the market continued to rise. The overall operation of dimethyl carbonate was stable. As of August 11, the factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 7100-7600 yuan / ton, and the high-end price was around 8000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is fair, and there is only a small room for negotiation in the market.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at the beginning of August (8.1-8.10), the overall market situation of propylene oxide in Shandong was declining. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 10, the reference price of propylene oxide was 8933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with that on August 1 (8966.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the on-site inventory of dimethyl carbonate has been improved as a whole, and the support provided by the supply side has become weak. The analysts of dimethyl carbonate of business club believe that in the short term, the market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou fell this week. Last Friday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 28000 yuan / ton, and this Friday, the average price was 26250 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased by 6.25%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the trading of the yellow phosphorus market is still not improving. The market situation is light, the market sales is general, and the downstream enterprises purchase at low prices, which depresses the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market. Most of the yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 26500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 26000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market has been running steadily this week. The reference price of phosphate rock is 1100.00, which is the same as that on August 1. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal. The operators are reluctant to sell. Large factories and mining enterprises are mainly for their own use, and the basic external sales are very small. The on-site circulation spot is insufficient, and the market continues to operate strongly. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of the business association, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly high-level consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, from July 29 to August 5, 2022, the market price of quasi primary coke in Shanxi was temporarily stable, and the average price of quasi primary coke in Shanxi was 2200 yuan / ton. After the fifth round of coke market increase and decrease, the accumulated increase and decrease was 1100 yuan / ton. This week, the coke market price remained temporarily stable, and the overall atmosphere of the coke market improved. On Friday, some coke enterprises in Hebei started the first round of increase of 200-240 yuan / ton for coke, which was rejected by the downstream steel plant. The first round of increase has not yet landed. In the future, the business community believes that although the downstream is warming up, the overall range is limited, and the boost to the industrial chain is limited. It is expected that the coke market will remain temporarily stable in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the operation of the steel plant, the sales of finished products and the profit of coke steel enterprises.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid fell slightly this week. Last Friday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 8650 yuan / ton, and this Friday, the average price was 8190 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased by 5.32%. At present, the downstream demand is poor, the phosphoric acid price is weak and falling, and the downstream goods are more cautious. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market is weak in the short term, and there is no lack of possibility of continued decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the business community chemical branch, the yellow phosphorus will continue to decline this week as a whole. The price of phosphate rock in the upstream continues to be high, the price of phosphate rock in the downstream market is weak and falling, and the phosphate Market is poor. The downstream continued low-level consolidation, the purchase price was depressed, and yellow phosphorus enterprises intended to raise the price. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be frozen in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 8, the average price of domestic top-grade DMF enterprises was 10600.00 yuan / ton. The price of DMF was mainly stable. Compared with the price at the beginning of the week, there was no significant change. In the short term, the market price of DMF was mainly stable.

As of August 8, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 11000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is fair, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth.

Upstream methanol: as of the end of July, the domestic methanol market had a slight upward trend, but the momentum was insufficient and the upward trend was weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: first, the cost has dropped significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has become soft; On the other hand, demand continued to be weak and market confidence was insufficient.

Chemical commodity index: on August 7, the bulk commodity price index (BPI) was 1040 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 22.56% from the highest point 1343 points in the cycle (October 19, 2021), and up 57.58% from the lowest point 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate smoothly, and the price range is 12700 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Last week (August 1-7), viscose staple fiber operated smoothly and the price was stable. The downstream demand is low, and the manufacturers actively support the price, showing a situation where there is a price but no market., Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the speed reduction production method to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and the rising inventory, and at the same time delay their own pulp inventory consumption. The cotton yarn price of downstream people fell, the popularity was low, and the transaction was light.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of viscose staple fiber was stable last week. As of August 7, 2022, the ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15400 yuan / ton, which was the same as the upper price. The price of human cotton yarn fell, and the average ex factory price (30s, ring spinning, first-class goods) was 18766 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 100 yuan / ton.

From the analysis of the reasons, the cost support is not reduced, the market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high, and the production cost of viscose staple fiber is generally maintained at a high level. However, the downstream demand for cotton yarn is weak, showing a situation of price without market. The factory inventory increases, the factory is cautious, and the desire to stabilize the price is strong.

Future forecast

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the textile terminal demand continues to be flat, the trading volume is always general, and the downstream order receiving volume is always general. The whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber shows a situation of price but no market, and the factory inventory increases. Analysts of business society predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will face downward pressure.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 5, the mainstream offer price of China viscosity 2.75-2.85 by the sample enterprises was about 14833.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.11% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the price of caprolactam fell this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, international crude oil continued to be affected by macro inflation, and external news support was weak. The market demand is sluggish and the downstream follow-up is weak. There is a large supply of caprolactam in the market, which reduces the price for enterprises digesting inventory and shifts the transaction focus downward. At present, the caprolactam market is not good, and the trend is constantly downward. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend continued to decline, and the cost side support of PA6 was still weak this week. At the beginning of August, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants increased narrowly, and the overall rate was about 60%. From the macro perspective, the petrochemical industry chain is affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, and the support function of PA6 at the near and far cost ends is weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, while the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. The load of downstream enterprises is not high, and there is inventory backlog. The enterprise is not active in preparing goods, and is still cautious in taking goods. Small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that at the beginning of August, the spot price of PA6 fell, the price of caprolactam continued to fall, and the cost side of PA6 was weak. The downstream enterprises just need to maintain production, and the on-site operation tends to bargain hunting. It is expected that the market trend of PA6 will remain weak in the off-season in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in July, and the spot prices of various brands gradually decreased. As of July 28, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5350 yuan / ton, up or down -3.89% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This month, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to be weak. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises remained low, and the overall operating rate decreased to 40%. Affected by this, although the on-site supply of potassium sulfate is limited, the on-site supply pressure increases instead of decreases due to the impact of export policies. In July, the price of potassium chloride of domestic enterprises fell steadily, while the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate was general. The arrival of border trade surged at the beginning of the month. With the continuous transit of goods, the price of imported goods weakened, which affected the loose spot offer and weakened the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market offer of potassium sulfate has fallen, domestic demand is weak, especially in the northeast, the goods are weak, and there are few new orders. Traders respond that the downstream follow-up is slow, and the trading is limited.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in July, and the potassium chloride market remained stable after the decline. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened, the follow-up of the demand side is poor, the export of supply side is blocked, and the pressure of domestic supply sources increases. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in enterprise sales policies in August.

According to the monitoring of business agency, adipic acid in China continued to decline in July, with a monthly decline of 16.32%. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 9600-9800 yuan / ton. On the one hand, from the negative cost, the upstream pure benzene market was weak, and cyclohexanone continued to decline. In addition, the adipic acid market has been declining due to abundant supply performance, weak market demand, poor delivery of goods by manufacturers, obvious inventory pressure and other reasons.

In terms of market supply, adipic acid operating rate fell slightly this month compared with the previous month, and remained below 60% for the whole month. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventory accumulated seriously in the early stage, and the prices of large manufacturers reduced the listing price and collection price significantly. In order to clear the inventory and ensure profits, enterprises can only operate at a reduced rate. In terms of commencement, Shandong Haili and Hongding units were overhauled within the month, and Chongqing Huafeng phase 5 was shut down; In addition, Shenma, Zhonghao and Yangmei all operate in a reduced range, and Liaohua first line operates. Although the operating rate fell in July, the market and enterprise inventory are still in the process of de stocking.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The figure above shows that the adipic acid industrial chain fell across the board this month, and the decline in the middle and lower reaches was significantly stronger. Adipic acid (-16.32%), PA66 (-11.7%). It indicates that the terminal demand is very weak. The decline of upstream pure benzene, cyclohexanone and other products was significantly slower than that of the previous month. It shows that the profit pressure of adipic acid manufacturers is becoming more and more prominent.

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

Crude oil surged in July, bringing some support to pure benzene. However, due to the lower downstream operating rate, the demand for pure benzene continues to weaken, and the price is difficult to perform well. According to the monitoring of business agency, pure benzene fell by 4.91% in July. The upstream still has a negative effect on adipic acid.

In July, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11016 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of July 28), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10180 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.59% in the month and 2.49% year-on-year. The price of pure benzene fell, while the downstream demand was weak, coupled with the impact of abundant supply, the cyclohexanone market fell all the way, which was difficult to boost.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is light. Downstream procurement continued to slow down. In July, the domestic PA66 market fell at a low level, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of July 29, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 21000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -11.7% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in July, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods and follow up, preferring just to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price supply. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor fell, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he gradually tried to reduce the yield order.

In the later stage, the business community believes that crude oil may rise with the tightening of supply and energy tension in the later stage, pure benzene is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and the negative cost side may be alleviated. With the impact of the profit compression of adipic acid manufacturers, the manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the price may gradually stabilize in the later stage. However, considering that Tianli, Zhonghao and other devices may recover one after another, the supply may increase in the later stage, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve in the short term, it is more likely that adipic acid will stop falling in the short term, but it is unlikely to rebound sharply.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued its decline in June, with both supply and demand weak, but the decline slowed slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, acetic acid fell by 14.85% in July (nearly 25% in June). The market decline was mainly affected by sluggish demand. Although the manufacturer has been de stocking in July, and the reduction of load has reduced the operating rate, the weak downstream procurement has continued to decline the price of acetic acid. This month, the 1.2 million ton unit in Celanese was overhauled, and the 700000 ton unit in Shanghai Huayi was gradually restarted. At present, acetic acid manufacturers have approached the cost line, the pace of price adjustment has slowed down, the hollow state of the market has eased slightly, the shipment volume in some parts of China has improved slightly in the late days, and the market transaction has improved. At the end of the month, the price of acetic acid was about 3300-3400 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

In July, domestic ethyl acetate continued to fluctuate and decline, with a decline of 4.76% this month according to the statistics of business agency, mainly due to the negative cost caused by the falling price of raw acetic acid. More importantly, the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, and the procurement gradually slowed down, resulting in the ethyl acetate Market inventory still at a relatively high level. It is worth noting that the decline of ethyl acetate slowed down significantly this month, mainly because the operating rate of ethyl acetate manufacturers decreased significantly, and the average operating rate in July was generally less than 40%. The manufacturer’s attitude of supporting prices is becoming stronger. In addition, the bidding situation of Shandong big factory is better, and some of them are traded at a premium. At the end of the month, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

In July, the decline of domestic butyl acetate was strong. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of butyl acetate was 15.41%. Under the background of the decline of acetic acid (-14.85%) and n-butanol (-2.08%), the negative cost of butyl acetate intensified. After the middle of July, the price of n-butanol rebounded, and butyl followed its upward trend. However, due to the downstream demand, the market gradually fell near the end of the month. After the butyl acetate manufacturer lost cost support, the price fell sharply, and the market trading was light. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 8500-8800 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that the overall acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak in July, and acetic acid and downstream products fell across the board. It has a great impact on the whole industrial chain. The downstream butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products have decreased significantly, and the decline of ethyl acetate has slowed down. On the whole, the profits of acetic acid and downstream butyl acetate and ethyl acetate enterprises have gradually been significantly compressed.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the later stage, the acetic acid industry chain is still weak. There are rumors of restart in Celanese in the short term, the market supply is still under pressure, and the price of acetic acid is still suppressed. The downstream ethyl acetate and butyl acetate units have little change in the short term. The market is still in the process of destocking, but due to weak demand, the downstream operating rate continues to be depressed, so it is difficult for ethyl ester and butyl ester to get out of the rebound market.

In July, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose, and the overall market atmosphere improved slightly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the methanol market in eastern China was 2520 yuan / ton at the beginning of July, and the price was 2597 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price rose by 3.06% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 12.18%, up 0.46% year-on-year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in July 2022, there were two kinds of commodities with month on month rise in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices, with methanol (phase) (3.06%) and liquefied natural gas (2.46%) rising in the top two. A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 7 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 53.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were MTBE (-14.87%), petroleum coke (-9.19%) and WTI crude oil (-8.83%). The average rise and fall this month was -4.96%.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of July 29:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2430 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange

Fujian. The mainstream negotiation is 2520-2550 yuan / ton

In the two lakes region, the mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference, about 2410-2450 yuan / ton

Anhui region, transaction range refers to 2540-2560 yuan / ton, factory withdrawal and acceptance

Henan Province, ex factory reference 2550 yuan / ton, factory withdrawal cash exchange

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was depressed and sorted out, and transactions in the mainland were heavy again, while the coastal market performed generally. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic methanol market continued to fall. At present, the macro situation is negative. At the same time, the breaking position of the futures market fell, and the market sentiment weakened, but the overall follow-up is not fast, and the decline is limited.

In the middle of August, the domestic methanol market was depressed and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing.

In late August, the domestic methanol market showed a slight upward trend, but the momentum was insufficient and the upward trend was weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.

In July, the price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, with an upward and downward trend from raw materials to the downstream. The international crude oil market was strong, Brent was -10.63% month on month in July, with a year-on-year increase of +42.00%. Among downstream products, prices rose and fell in July. Among them, the price of glacial acetic acid fell the most, with a month on month decrease of -17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of -40.92%; The price of formaldehyde in Shandong increased the most, with a month on month increase of +5.28%.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 28, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $357.50-358.50 / ton, up $3.5 / ton. The closing price of Gulf methanol market in the United States is 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 384.50-385.00 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 357.50-358.50 USD / ton, 3.5 USD / ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 384.50-385.00 euros / ton, 0 euros / ton

Crude oil is expected to rise in August, but coal prices may decline. At the same time, methanol supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is expected to rise in a narrow range. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will mainly recover in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on July 1 was 4666 yuan / ton, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium on July 29 was 4650 yuan / ton. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell 0.36% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4366 yuan / ton on July 1, and 4425 yuan / ton on July 29. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.34% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate is downward this month. Monoammonium has a poor market, with a weak trend. Raw phosphate rock is still tight and the price is high, the price of raw sulfur continues to fall, the cost support is insufficient, and the confidence in the ammonium monohydrate plant is frustrated. The downstream compound fertilizer operates at low load, the price is down, and the purchase of ammonium phosphate is reduced. Due to the rapid decline of raw materials and the shortage of Monoammonium supply, most manufacturers suspended their quotation, and the quotation of dealers was mixed. As of July 29, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

The market of diammonium phosphate fluctuated at a high level this month. The price of raw sulfur continues to decline, and the cost support is weakened. Domestic demand for diammonium basically stagnated, and most manufacturers stopped quoting. At present, the market is dominated by exports, the demand is weak, the quotation of traders is chaotic, and the market is weak in the short term. As of July 29, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4150 yuan / ton, that of 57% diammonium was about 3750 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Hubei was about 4400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, at the beginning of July, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore basically exceeded the 1000 yuan level, the on-site supply continued to be tight, and the operators were reluctant to sell. Large mining enterprises were mainly for their own use, with little external sales. The on-site circulation spot was insufficient, and the market continued to operate strongly. On July 11, some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi raised the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore again, The increase range was around 30-50 yuan / ton, and the high-end market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou exceeded 1150 yuan / ton. Then, the phosphorus ore market as a whole was strong and operated to the late July stage. Up to now, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1050-1150 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 900-980 yuan / ton.

The price of raw sulfur fell sharply this month. The downstream market starts at a low level, and the demand for sulfur is limited. In addition, there is a low-cost source of goods in the market, there is great competition pressure for on-site shipment, and the inventory pressure of sulfur refineries increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, domestic refineries continue to reduce their quotations. In the mood of buying up but not buying down, the operators are cautious in entering the market, and the overall atmosphere of the market is weak.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analysts of the business society, the current trend of sulfur, the raw material of ammonium phosphate, is weak, and the cost support is weak. The downstream demand for phosphate fertilizer is sluggish, and there are few transactions on the floor, with the focus of transactions declining. The price trend of ammonium phosphate is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices were weak in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 58400 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 58000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.68% and a year-on-year increase of 30.34%. On July 27, the bromine commodity index was 203.51, down 0.7 points from yesterday, down 17.00% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 245.40% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices are weak this month. Shandong enterprises currently report about 57500-58000 yuan / ton. The output of bromine enterprises is general, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are in a downturn, with general support for bromine and a heavy game atmosphere. The overall procurement pace is weak.

In terms of raw materials, sulfur prices fell in July as a whole. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 3603.33 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 940 yuan / ton. The price fell 73.91%, down 42.92% from the same period last year. The downstream demand for sulfur is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. There is a low-cost source of goods in the market. The downstream purchase is cautious, the shipment situation of enterprises is poor, and the inventory pressure increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some price enterprises quote lower on weekends, the price difference in the floor is obvious, and the market mentality is bearish. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices are weak this month, and the output increase is less than expected. The output of seawater bromine is low, and bromine enterprises mostly support the price. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported, and they are resistant to the high price of bromine. Most operators are looking to stabilize the aftermarket, and comprehensively predict that the short-term bromine price will stabilize the mid market and integrate the operation market, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 25, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8266 yuan / ton. Compared with July 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1834 yuan / ton, a decrease of 18.15%. Compared with June 25 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10766 yuan / ton), the average price was basically the same as 2500 yuan / ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that since July, the domestic butanone market has operated downward as a whole. At the beginning of July, the domestic butanone market had a short-term strong operation, but it was trapped by the downstream demand side. The butanone market has been declining since the middle and early July, the supply and demand transmission has been blocked, the butanone market lacks strong support, and the market price continues to move closer to the low end. As of July 25, the low-end price of the domestic butanone market was around 8200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of more than 18% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the butanone floor is still trading, and the downstream wait-and-see mood still exists.

On the upstream side, since July (7.1-7.24), the liquefied gas market in Shandong Province has been running down as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5744 yuan / ton on July 22, a decrease of 2.48% compared with July 1 (5890 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone field is weak in consolidation and operation, and the support of the raw material end is general. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride this week was temporarily stable, with the price of 5283.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 24, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 139.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week was slightly stable temporarily: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride over the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5000-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this week, from 10125.00 yuan / / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.25%, an increase of 28.83% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.34%, an increase of 28.08% year-on-year over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. International potash prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

This week (7.18-7.25), the butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, but the fundamentals are still weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 25, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 13830 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from 13940 yuan / ton last Monday, and the low point in the week was 13790 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is sluggish, early maintenance devices are gradually restarted, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supply is expected to increase, and the market is weak and consolidated; On the one hand, the international crude oil price rebounded over the weekend, on the other hand, the narrow range fluctuation cost of butadiene was supported. The sales companies in Northeast, North and South China of CNPC raised the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber by 200 yuan / ton, driving the market rebound atmosphere.

Recently, the supply side has increased slightly, forming a certain pressure on the Shunding market.

Since July, butadiene market has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of butadiene rubber has been temporarily stable in the short term. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 25, the price of butadiene was 10260 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from 10292 yuan / ton last Monday.

The natural rubber market rebounded slightly, but the overall level is still low, with little support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 25, the price of natural rubber was 12170 yuan / ton, up 0.89% from 12063 yuan / ton last Monday.

The operation of downstream tires is low, with half steel tires around 65% and all steel tires around 55%. The demand is weak in the face of rubber support, and the market transaction is slightly deadlocked.

Aftermarket forecast: business analysts believe that the fluctuation of international crude oil range, the low price of natural rubber, the increase of supply pressure and the deadlock of market transactions make it difficult to sustain the rebound in the butadiene rubber market. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will continue to decline weakly in the later period.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 3066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 3033.33 yuan / ton, down 1.09% during the week.

This week, the overall performance of the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market was average, and some enterprises slightly reduced the factory price, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market as a whole to continue to be weak and downward. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2800-3200 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated around 3000 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are for reference only, and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

As of July 22, the price of domestic soda ash fell by 1.71% in July, the price of domestic sulfur fell sharply by 54.49% in the month, the cost of raw materials fell sharply, and the downstream trade subjects had a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the overall market price of domestic pyrosulfite will continue to be under pressure.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of raw materials continues to decline, and under the pressure of costs, it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be under pressure and weak adjustment in the short term.

In terms of spot goods, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2404 yuan / ton on July 21, down 1.07% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, some major production enterprises have device maintenance, and some regions have limited production possibilities. From the demand side, the downstream just needs to purchase.

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, 2360-2390 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton factory delivery

Fujian, The mainstream negotiation is 2430-2470 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, The negotiation of mainstream enterprises refers to about 2400-2430 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The negotiation of mainstream enterprises is about 2370-2500 yuan / ton

Henan Province, The shipping price of some enterprises is 2530 yuan / ton

In terms of futures, methanol fell in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Ma2209 contract opened at 2442 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2470 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2406 yuan / ton. It closed at 2411 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 24 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract Holdings were 1.1044 million hands, a decrease of 12100 hands from the previous trading day.

In terms of external market, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 360.00-361.00 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollar / ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, up 11.5 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 360.00-361.00 USD / ton, 1 USD / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, 11.5 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, 3 euros / ton

The high-level fluctuation in the crude oil market and the pull of device maintenance are difficult to match the demand side, and the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by consolidation.

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak, some devices were restarted, the overall supply increased, and the supply side support weakened. At the same time, terminal demand continued to languish, dragging down the downstream market in many industries.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from July 8 to 15, the domestic BDO market price fell from 18280 yuan / ton to 16680 yuan / ton. The price fell by 8.75% in the week, 25.87% month on month, and 13.46% year-on-year. In terms of market price, 15300-15700 yuan / ton was negotiated by the mainstream of spot bulk water in East China; Barrel negotiation 17000-18000 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 15500-15800 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 17000-18000 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw material calcium carbide: the supply of calcium carbide has decreased, but the downstream fatigue is difficult to support the sharp rebound of calcium carbide. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the overall operation is still finishing.

Comparison chart of carbide (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of business agency:

In terms of methanol, the production cost of methanol is supported to a certain extent. Methanol supply is expected to increase, demand is weakened, and the short-term domestic methanol market is weak and declining. BDO cost side support continued to be weak.

In terms of downstream products, the operating rate of PBT industry is general, and it just needs to be followed up; The market of gbl-nmp industrial chain fell, mainly contract procurement; The load of the main devices of downstream TPU and Pu slurry is around 50-60%, and it is mainly purchased with small orders just needed; The start-up of PBAT industry fell to 10%, and the production was slow under the cost of new capacity and sales pressure.

BDO supply will continue to increase, while some major downstream factories are expected to reduce their burdens or overhaul. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5283.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.55%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 17, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 139.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5250 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with the price of 10125.00 yuan / ton, up 35.91% year-on-year over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7537.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.15%, an increase of 33.21% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. International potash prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

The spot tin market price (7.8-7.15) fell after the market shock this week. The average price in the domestic market was 192110 yuan / ton last weekend and 189810 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.2% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there is a total of one commodity rising in the non-ferrous sector, and the rising commodity is metallic silicon (2.43%). A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 6 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were nickel (-8.74%), zinc (-6.02%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-5.94%). The average rise and fall this week was -2.84%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 181500 yuan / ton- 1780 yuan / ton, three thousand eight hundred and eighty-three

London tin, 24775 dollars / ton- 345 dollars / ton, three thousand five hundred and fifty

This week, the futures market fell as a whole. Except for the sharp rise in the price on the 12th, it was in a downward trend as a whole. On the night of the 11th, the dollar rose sharply, crude oil prices fell significantly, and the overall performance of the metal market was mixed, with Lun Xi leading the rise of 2%, and Shanghai Xi’an rising more than 3%. In the morning trading on the 12th, Shanghai tin continued its upward trend at night and continued to lead the metal market. As of the closing of the 12th, the Shanghai tin 2208 contract closed up 2.45%, and the spot market rose by 8000-10000 yuan / ton on the same day. After the sharp rise, Shanghai tin fell for two consecutive days, creating an inverted “V” trend for Shanghai tin this week. In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. The downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the start-up of tin solder enterprises is generally low. In the near future, the trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that the trend of tin price will remain wide and volatile.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic market of PA6 fluctuated this week, and the spot prices of some brands fell after rising. As of July 15, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 15533.33 yuan / ton, up or down -0.43% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam fluctuated narrowly this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, international crude oil fell sharply, and external news support was weak. Moreover, the domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and the supply increases. Downstream products have poor profits, bargain hunting in demand, digestion of some low-end supply, which has a certain supporting effect on the spot price. It is expected that in the short term, the caprolactam market will still be reduced by a narrow margin.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is general, and the cost side support of PA6 is still weak this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant has limited changes, which is generally stable at 70%, and it is running sideways this week. In terms of news, the international crude oil was affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other factors in the early stage, and the decline in price volatility intensified, and the near and far cost side support of PA6 weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. The load of downstream enterprises was reduced by a narrow margin, but it was heard that inventories were overstocked. In the middle of the week, enterprises prepared goods to hold up the spot price, which fell back over the weekend. The purchaser is still cautious in taking goods, and small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated this week, caprolactam fell narrowly, and the cost support of PA6 remained weak. Downstream enterprises just need to maintain production when taking goods, and the on-site operation is biased towards bargain hunting. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of PA6 market may operate in a narrow range in the long short game.

This week (July 1 to July 8), the market price of electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 16650 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16650 yuan / ton at the end of this week, flat.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market maintained a slight decline, the futures market continued to fluctuate, and the overall price difference of superimposed steel bidding was too large. Although the manganese ore price continued to callback, the overall range has not been amplified. As of July 8, Tianjin Hong Kong Macao block was 58 yuan / ton degree, Gabon was 56.5 yuan / ton degree, 0.5 yuan / ton degree, and South Africa Semi carbonate was 39 yuan / ton degree.

The electrolytic manganese market operated weakly and stably this week. In terms of ex factory price, the mainstream ex factory tax price in the southern regions around Hunan and Guangxi was 14900-15100 yuan / ton, while the large northern manufacturers had not made a quotation recently. The domestic mainstream market price is around 15000-15200 yuan / ton, and the overall market performance is still weak. There is no market with price. In terms of demand, the progress of steel bidding in July is slow. The downstream stainless steel enterprises have reduced production recently, and the demand for manganese has declined to a certain extent, which is difficult to support the price of electrolytic manganese. Although the electrolytic manganese manufacturers have a collective production reduction plan recently, it has not been implemented as a whole. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will be stable and weak in the short term.

Manganese and manganese: domestic silicon and manganese consolidation is weak. This week, the futures disk is affected by the weakness of black, and it is difficult to sell at a high price on the spot side, and it is difficult to conclude a deal according to the manufacturer’s 8000 yuan / ton cash ex factory quotation. Because some traders hold certain low-cost purchasing resources on the disk, it has a great impact on retail. According to the price monitoring of business society, the mainstream quotation of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on July 8 was around 7750 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 7720 yuan / ton, It fell 2.03% from Monday.

Steel plant bidding: on July 8, Baosteel opened a new round of electrolytic manganese bidding, with a bidding quantity of 700 tons.

On July 8, the bidding price of Hegang group in July: C2.0 medium carbon ferromanganese 9800 fell by 900, the quantity was 2560 tons, and c0.7 low carbon ferromanganese 11000 fell by 1000, the quantity was 1026 tons.

On July 8, silicon manganese bidding of Hegang group in July: 7950 yuan / ton of factory acceptance including tax, and an increase of 50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, with a quantity of 22800 tons.

On July 1, Hebei Iron and Steel Group launched the bidding activity for electrolytic manganese in July, with a total bidding volume of 1300 tons, 400 tons less than that in June. The bidding deadline is 10:00 on July 4.

On July 7, Ma’anshan Iron and steel plant announced the steel bidding in July: the bidding quantity of electrolytic manganese is 300 tons, the bidding price is 15780 yuan / ton, and the delivery deadline is July 31.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to weakness, and Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5910.00 yuan / ton on July 5 and 5846.00 yuan / ton on July 12, with a decrease of 1.08% during the week and an increase of 33.37% over the same period last year.

As of July 12, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

North China, 5800-5900 yuan / ton

South China, 5650-58000 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5750-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5800-5950 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to weakness, the market was good and the support was insufficient, and the Shandong civil gas market fell violently. During the week, the international crude oil price fell first and then rose, and the cost side brought Limited benefits to the market. At present, affected by the traditional off-season sales, the terminal demand continues to be weak, the downstream mentality is more cautious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. In addition, the supply of Shandong market is relatively sufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand in the region is difficult to change, and the price is weak.

The recent weakness of LPG futures market has brought insufficient support to the spot market. On July 12, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2208 was 5388, the highest price was 5525, the lowest price was 5333, the closing price was 5457, the previous settlement price was 5478, the settlement price was 5453, down 21, the trading volume was 166451, the position was 53967, and the daily position was increased by 575. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Recently, the international crude oil price and futures market are both weak, which has brought Limited benefits to the market. In addition, the current seasonal impact is more obvious, the terminal consumption is slow, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high. Shandong’s market supply has not changed much, which is relatively abundant, and the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. It is expected that the market price of civil gas in Shandong will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly continuing to decline.

Cobalt prices fell in a volatile manner this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week. As of July 11, the cobalt price was 361200 yuan / ton, down 4.01% from 376300 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand fell, cobalt market fell.

New energy vehicle sales pick up

The data released by the China Automobile Association on the economic operation of the automobile industry in June 2022 showed that in June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 590000 and 596000 respectively, an increase of 1.3 times year-on-year. From January to June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.661 million and 2.6 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a new high, and the demand of cobalt market rose.

Cobalt supply decreases

According to the latest data from the customs website, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials in May 2022 was 7100 tons of metal tons, down 4% month on month and 1% year on year. From January to may 2022, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 38800 tons of metal tons. In the first half of 22, the resumption of production of mutanda was not as fast as expected. Glencore reduced the annual guidance output of 3000 tons under the condition that the Q1 cobalt output increased by 43% year-on-year. In the middle of April, Durban, South Africa, suffered from floods, and the shipment of cobalt raw materials was affected. The shipment was resumed only in the middle of May. The arrival volume of intermediate products fell sharply in May, resulting in a decline in the arrival volume of intermediate products from late May to early June. The supply of cobalt fell, and the supply shortage of cobalt remained.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles are rising, the demand of cobalt market is picking up, the supply shortage of cobalt market remains, the downward pressure of cobalt price is weakened, and the upward momentum is increased. Cobalt prices stabilized this week, and the momentum for cobalt prices to rise in the future is large.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the PC market continued to decline last week, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of July 11, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 16400 yuan / ton, up or down -7.34% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the bisphenol a market fell below the new low in two years last week, and there was little demand on the floor. The industry chain is difficult to be positive, the terminal support is difficult, and the demand is weak. The industry’s profit performance is poor, coupled with the decline of international crude oil and phenol ketones, the upstream of the far and near end continues to decline, and the external market environment is in a depressed state. The business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

Last week, the upstream bisphenol a market continued to decline, falling below the 12000 yuan / ton mark, seriously weakening the PC cost side support. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises has continued to rise recently, and the load of some production lines has increased after maintenance. Industry inventory is high, and the pressure on PC supply side is even worse. The international crude oil in the far upstream also fell sharply due to the influence of the Federal Reserve and other reasons. The downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, resulting in poor delivery. Although the floor has entered the trading mode of price for volume, it is currently in the off-season, with cold market transactions and lack of bottom support. Buyers’ mentality of buying up rather than buying down spread, businesses’ confidence was not strong, and the offer made a substantial profit.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: last week, the domestic PC market continued to fall, the upstream bisphenol a market fell deeply, and the cost side weakened the effect of PC support. In terms of supply, there are abundant goods on site, high inventory and light demand. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 5.15% this week (7.4-8). Mainly affected by the increase in supply and the slowdown in demand, the Celanese unit resumed production, with Sinopec Great Wall resuming operation, the factory accumulated significantly, and the market supply surged. While the supply pressure increases, the overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the resistance of downstream factories to the current high price of acetic acid is increasing, affecting the willingness to purchase. So the callback period has not yet ended. At the weekend, the price of acetic acid is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate range fluctuated, the inertia fell at the beginning of the week, gradually stopped falling from the middle of the week to the weekend, and some rebounded. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 1.52%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative impact of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. So the price of ethyl acetate rebounded slightly over the weekend, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.4-8), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak and volatile, and the price fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 2.75%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. Compared with acetic acid, the decline of downstream butyl ester was relatively small, and the performance was relatively resistant to decline. The main reason was that the market supply remained within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the device was low, and remained below 40% in the first week of July. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 19.73% in June. The rise and fall in the first week of July was 0. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 9300-9600 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that in early July, the acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid was still obvious, which had a great impact on the whole industrial chain. Downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products all fell to varying degrees, but it was significantly weaker than acetic acid, indicating that downstream profits were still in a comfortable range.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the short term, the performance of the acetic acid industry chain is low, and the upstream costs are bad, which also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, acetic acid is still affected by the resumption of the plant, and loose supply will put pressure on the price. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester still have negative cost side. Considering the light downstream demand, the order performance in July was insufficient. It is expected that ethyl ester and butyl ester may still operate at a low level.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9975 yuan / ton on June 30, down 3.86% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of the operating rate, the overall operating rate of the carbon black market has been maintained at about 66% recently, and the logistics and transportation across the country are gradually smooth without other obstacles, which has improved the operation of carbon black manufacturers. However, due to weak downstream demand and limited enthusiasm for carbon black procurement, it is difficult for carbon black manufacturers to ship, and some manufacturers’ inventories are gradually high.

On the cost side, the auction price of raw coal tar has generally risen, causing further pressure on the cost of carbon black manufacturers. At present, the coke enterprises are operating stably, and the supply of coal tar in the market has not changed significantly, but the performance of downstream products continues to be poor.

On the demand side, the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market operate at low load, the finished products of tire enterprises in the main market are shipped slowly, and the downstream performance of the tire market continues to be depressed. The inventory of tire enterprises is high, and the traditional off-season is coming. There is little bargaining on new orders in the venue, resulting in carbon black having no say in pricing. For tire factories, they can only implement the policy of shipping first and then pricing. Under the circumstances of high tire inventory and poor expectation of future market demand, some tire manufacturers continue to control production and reduce inventory.

On the whole, at present, the cost of carbon black in China has fallen, the demand for negative factors in the carbon black market is low, and the price of carbon black has shown a downward trend with the increase of inventory.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 11190 yuan / ton on June 24, and 10770 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China fell 3.75% this week.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 10750 yuan / ton on June 24, and 10733 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China fell by 0.16% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the cost support was insufficient. The trading of phosphoric acid on the floor is weak and the market is poor. The downstream purchases on demand, and the demand side waits for release. As of June 30, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10770 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10733 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 10300-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10250-10400 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 11000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this week. The domestic market reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market reference price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 950 yuan / ton. Large mining enterprises in some parts of China have suspended foreign supply, focusing on their own use. The spot circulation in the phosphorus ore market is insufficient. Under the two-way support of supply and demand, the focus of the phosphorus ore market is constantly moving upward.

The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the quotation of yellow phosphorus market is chaotic and the transaction situation is poor. Downstream and traders, mainly wait-and-see, purchase cautiously, and buy more at lower prices. The mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton, Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton, and Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the business society, the cost pressure has weakened due to the reduction in the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material. Floor trading decreased, terminal demand was not followed up, and the phosphoric acid market continued to decline. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to decline in the short term.

In June 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market fluctuated. The average price of the domestic market was 15105 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15150 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.3%.

On June 29, the lead commodity index was 91.96, down 0.09 points from yesterday, down 31.38% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.22% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Lead futures market in June 2022

varieties., Closing price on the 2nd, Closing price on the 24th, 2-day inventory, 24 day inventory

Shanghai lead, 14935 yuan / ton, 14890 yuan / ton, 87235 tons, 76413 tons

London lead, 2142 dollars / ton, 1939.5 dollars / ton, 38850 tons, 39600 tons

In June 2022, the lead price trend fluctuated widely. Although the monthly fluctuation was small, the overall trend fluctuated and fluctuated. It fluctuated many times during the month, with a fluctuation range of about 1.5%. Because the lead market is in a seasonal off-season recently, the trend basically follows the futures market. This month, the macro side is mixed with bad and good. Most of the trends of the non-ferrous market are ups and downs. Because the supply-demand relationship of lead itself is relatively less affected, but the overall trend is also UPS and downs.

In the domestic market, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season recently. Affected by the insufficient supply at the mine end, the smelter has reduced production significantly this month. The market is expected to tighten the supply, and the social inventory is currently at a low level. The tightening of supply has boosted the lead price. Recently, there are many macro news, and the non-ferrous market is obviously disturbed. Most of the prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the lead price fluctuates less compared with other varieties. The downstream is still in the off-season. The inventory of battery enterprises in the factory is high, the sales situation is general, and the demand for raw lead ingots is general. Under the background of the off-season, the market demand for lead ingots is weak, and the recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range shock trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

DOTP prices plummeted in June

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP plummeted in June. As of June 30, the price of DOTP was 9850 yuan / ton, down 18.76% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the off-season, the cost of raw materials fell sharply in June, and the DOTP market fell sharply.

The price of isooctanol plummeted in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell sharply in June. As of June 30, the isooctanol price was 9100 yuan / ton, down 26.81% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. When the off-season came, the price of isooctanol plummeted in June, the cost of DOTP fell, and the downward pressure on the DOTP market increased.

PTA prices rose first and then fell in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, PTA prices rose first and then fell in June. PTA prices rose with the fluctuation of crude oil prices in the first ten days of June, and the high crude oil prices fell in the middle and late ten days of June, and PTA prices followed the decline. As of June 30, PTA price was 6724 yuan / ton, down 1.78% from the PTA price of 6846 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. PTA prices fell, the cost of DOTP fell, the positive momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fell in June, PTA prices fell violently, isooctanol prices fell sharply in the off-season demand, DOTP costs fell, DOTP’s upward momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased. In the future, the decline in the cost of DOTP raw materials accumulated in the off-season of the market, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will plummet in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 1, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, which was 566 yuan / ton lower than that on June 26 (the reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.61%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (6.27-7.1), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a decline as a whole. The on-site operating rate of n-butanol has increased compared with that in the early stage. After the equipment maintenance and repair in the early stage were resumed successively, the on-site supply of n-butanol increased. However, the downstream demand side improved generally and the effective support was insufficient. From June 27 at the beginning of this week, the off-site price of n-butanol was continuously reduced by the n-butanol factory by about 400-600 yuan / ton. As of July 1 this weekend, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7950-8100 yuan / ton, The decline in the week exceeded 6%. At present, the downstream bargain hunting of n-butanol just needs replenishment, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is peaceful.

In terms of upstream propylene, the price chart of business society shows that in early June, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and the price fell below 8000 yuan. It is reported. Due to the production of new units and the resumption of overhaul units, the supply of propylene has increased, market competition has intensified, and enterprises are forced by sales pressure to give up profits and goods, and some process routes are even in a state of loss. Downstream market demand is dominated by rigid demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand. In the middle of the month, the price began to stabilize and rebound, but the contradiction between supply and demand gradually appeared. The pressure of manufacturers to deliver goods increased, and the demand followed up slowly. In particular, the cost pressure on polypropylene remained unchanged, the demand was flat, and the commencement was limited. At the same time, other downstream products of propylene performed generally. The price continued to decline at the beginning of late June, the overall commencement of the industry was high, and the supply pressure remained.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong tends to be flat, and the low-end price transactions on the floor have improved. The n-butanol datagrapher of business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market situation in Shandong is relatively stable, mainly finishing and running, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 30 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, in June, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell in June. As of the 30th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10860 yuan / ton, down 5.24% from the beginning of the month. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose, and the market offer is gradually lowered; It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate and fall in the later period.

Upstream raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business news agency, as of June 29, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 13933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.35% compared with that on June 1, and down 8.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the cost support is limited, and some devices on the supply side are overhauled, but the downstream buying enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be deadlocked in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the LNG market was in the off-season in June, and the demand support was weak. The domestic LNG price continued to decline, falling by 10.56% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the decline of LNG in the first half of the month was 3.05%, and that in the second half of the month was 7.86%. Many liquid factories reduced prices and arranged warehouses, and liquid prices fell centrally. Near the end of the month, liquid prices in some regions rebounded slightly. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will be consolidated in the short term.

Future forecast: in June, the raw material cost continued to weaken, the downstream demand was flat, the market spot inventory was sufficient, and the transaction was average. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 17100 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 18520 yuan / ton, with an increase of 8.30% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 1.06%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 29:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-17900 yuan / ton

East China, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-18000 yuan / ton

South China, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-18000 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly. At present, the external quotation of major manufacturers is stable, and the supply is reduced, which has boosted the mentality of trade market operators. Subsequently, the quotation of traders is stable and upward. Coupled with the current low inventory at the social level, the market continues to push up. However, the actual transaction price needs to be further followed up.

In the middle of June, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise. Most of the major manufacturers supported their prices, and traders followed suit. The overall market atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of downstream demand is slightly modest, with small order replenishment as the main.

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market was sorted out at a high level, the follow-up of actual orders was very limited, and the atmosphere was stalemate. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, and the supply is relatively small. The downstream customers are in conflict with the high price, and just need to replenish the small order. The overall purchase desire is low.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price in June, pure benzene was mainly subject to shock consolidation in the whole month.

In terms of aniline, the current high cost has supported the increase of aniline for many times. However, Shanghai Lianheng put in an overhaul plan in late June. If the overhaul plan is implemented, part of the contract volume will be released to the market, which has a certain negative impact on the market.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

The MDI device has a multi storage maintenance plan, and the supply is expected to shrink. According to the MDI analysts of the business community, the domestic MDI market is mainly in a stalemate.

In June, the domestic asphalt market rose first and then fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 4681 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 4607 yuan / ton. The price in the month fell by 1.58% and increased by 35.63% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic asphalt market maintained a rising trend. In terms of regions, the price increases in North China, Shandong and Northeast China were obvious, mainly supported by the cost of crude oil, and the downstream rigid demand was ok, so the market quotation continued to rise; Other regions are mainly driven by the price rise of Sinopec, in which Sinopec in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, and Sinopec in South China, Sichuan and Chongqing increased by 100 yuan / ton.

In the middle of May, domestic asphalt prices rose first and then fell. In terms of regions, the main areas of increase include East China, South China, southwest and Northwest China. Sinopec’s price rose by 50 yuan / ton, driving the market price upward. The falling regions include Shandong and North China, mainly due to the fall of crude oil prices, the outflow of some low-cost sources, and the price reduction and shipment of some major traders, which led to the decline of market prices.

In late June, the domestic asphalt market fell, mainly due to the fall in crude oil prices, the outflow of some low-cost sources, and the price reduction and shipment of some major traders, which led to a decline in market prices.

As of June 28, the factory quotation summary of major asphalt manufacturers in Shandong:

Enterprise, Device, Price

HSBC petrochemical, A 2.3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit has been started, with a daily output of 2000 tons ., 5180 yuan / ton

Jincheng petrochemical, 1500 tons per day ., 4300 yuan / ton

Kelida., There are two sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, one set of 3.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and one set of 1.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, 4700 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical, A set of 3million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is currently converted to residual oil, and the inventory will not be shipped temporarily, with a daily output of 2500-3000 tons ., 5200 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical, Normal shipment ., 4940 yuan / ton

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

The international crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range, the asphalt spot market was slightly flat, and there was no obvious contradiction between short-term supply and demand. The asphalt analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly sorted out.

In June, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11610 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of June 27), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.12% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 7.07%.

At the beginning of June, the market price of cyclohexanone continued the rising trend of last month, and the price was still high. With the start-up of maintenance devices, the supply increased, the shipment was affected, and the price of cyclohexanone continued to decline.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was strong and rising, the price of raw material pure benzene was rising, and the cyclohexanone market rose significantly under the strong support of the cost.

In the middle of May, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell, mainly due to the increase of supply. The cost support is stable. In terms of supply, Luxi and Lunan are exported, the market supply increases, and manufacturers actively sell goods at a profit. The market price then fell.

In late June, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline, the spot price of raw material pure benzene fell back, the cost side was lack of support, the downstream chemical fiber demand was weak, the cyclohexanone plant in southern Shandong was restarted, the market supply was abundant, the shipment was obviously blocked, and the price continued to fall.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of June 27:

region ., Price

East China, 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11300-11500 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 10700-10800 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of raw material pure benzene rises first and then falls, following the change of crude oil. Crude oil fell deeply, the external market weakened significantly, and the external support of pure benzene weakened.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam continued to fall. The upstream cost support is weakened, the downstream polymerization plant is reduced, caprolactam is under two-way pressure, and the northern spot supply is abundant recently, the overall confidence in the market is weak, and the price is falling rapidly.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

In the short term, pure benzene operates at a high level, the cost support is still stable, and cyclohexanone has lost money, and the demand may be expected to increase. The cyclohexanone analysts of business agency predict that the short-term decline of cyclohexanone market is limited.

According to the data of business agency, on June 24, the average p value of oil based ethylene glycol was 4900 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, a year-on-year decrease of 5.04%.

In terms of units, the 400000 ton unit of Sinopec refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down yesterday. It is estimated that the ethylene glycol unit of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down on June 18 due to an accident; Shanxi woneng 300000 ton plant was shut down on June 15, with a plan of about 20 days; Xinjiang Tianye 300000 ton plant is planned to restart at the end of June; The 450000 ton unit of far east alliance is planned to be restarted in early July.

On the upstream side, there is a game between supply and demand of crude oil. Brent and WTI crude oil are still in a serious spot premium state, and the oil supply is still as tight as before. However, it is expected that the increase in inventories and investors’ concern that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike may plunge the US economy into recession, thus curbing the demand for fuel.

The supply of goods in the ethylene glycol market is sufficient, and the market mentality is generally bearish, resulting in a depressed atmosphere of goods inquiry and low intention of terminal buyers to receive goods. As of June 23, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1.247 million tons, an increase of 68500 tons over last Thursday, an increase of 5.81%, and an increase of 29600 tons over this Monday, an increase of 2.43%. There is no sign that the inventory will decline significantly in the short term. Buyers and end users are not keen on purchasing imported goods at present. Downstream demand is sluggish, polyester and polyester production and sales are still light, the trading atmosphere is poor, and the actual orders are generally promoted. Traders maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Forecast: Although the current ethylene glycol price is close to the support level, the prospect of ethylene glycol market is still weak due to high port inventory and concerns about demand.

The price of orthobenzene rose strongly this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of benzene price of business club that the price of benzene rose this week, the price of xylene in the external market rose violently, and the domestic market of xylene rose strongly. As of June 20, the price of orthobenzene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 5.68% from 8800 yuan / ton on June 12 last week; Compared with 8600 yuan / ton of orthobenzene at the end of May, the price increased by 8.14%. The cost of neighboring benzene rose this week, and the market of neighboring benzene rose strongly this week.

Mixed xylene prices fell at a high level this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community that the high crude oil price this week fluctuated and adjusted, and the high mixed xylene price fell back. As of June 19, the price of mixed xylene was 8860 yuan / ton, down 3.70% from 9200 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the high price of mixed xylene fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the downward pressure on o-xylene increased.

The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

As can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of business club, the price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of June 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8675 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from the price of 8500 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The price of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the downstream market of o-xylene slowly recovered.

Outlook

According to the analysts of o-xylene data of business agency, the high crude oil price fell this week, the price of mixed xylene fell violently, and the raw material cost of o-xylene fell; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the downstream market of orthobenzene slowly recovered. In general, the cost of o-xylene decreased, the downstream demand recovered, the external price of o-xylene fluctuated and rose, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is still under increasing downward pressure. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will stabilize in the future.

This week (June 13-17), the domestic ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 2.33%, mainly because the raw material acetic acid fell sharply, major manufacturers lowered prices one after another, and the retail prices of major factories in Shandong continued to fall, which dampened market confidence, the market turnover was average, affecting the market mentality, and the downstream demand was weak. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the domestic acetic acid fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic acid fell as much as 23.9%. Although the operating rate of acetic acid is not high, and the inventory of upstream factories is low, the overall sales pressure is not great, but due to the weak overall demand of downstream factories, the willingness of downstream factories to purchase is poor. It is also when acetic acid is pulled to a relatively high point, and the downstream resistance is increasing, so the high callback risk is intensified.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, and the price of downstream ethyl acetate is relatively strong. At present, the curve is close, indicating that the profit of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises is expected to improve.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable this week, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is roughly 60%. The main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, most manufacturers generally lowered their ex factory prices by about 200 yuan / ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and arranged the warehouse, dampening the market confidence. Some manufacturers in South China have reduced their production load. At present, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers is obvious, and the market expectation is weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

From the demand side, the downstream procurement generally slowed down. This week, the purchase intention of dealers and downstream factories was weak, and the downstream orders contracted, resulting in a significant slowdown in the delivery speed. There are few transactions in the market. At present, the market mainly deals at the low-end price of small orders. In addition to some downstream stocking demand, the overall market demand remains depressed.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club believe that the raw material acetic acid has retreated significantly, and the cost is obviously bad. It is also difficult to see much in the supply and demand side. Transactions at the low end of the market are better than those at the high end. Therefore, it is expected that ethyl acetate may still have downward space.

According to the monitoring data of business club, as of June 21, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5733 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton lower than that on June 15, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5866 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.27%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the late June period (6.15-6.21), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was first adjusted and operated at a high level, and then the price was reduced by a narrow margin. Since the last ten days of June 15, the overall high level of domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been stable and consolidated. The overall downstream demand is cautious and the trading atmosphere is general. At the time of the 17th, I heard that the actual transaction of dimethyl carbonate on the floor had a small margin of profit transfer, and the buying gas was light. From the 20th, some dimethyl carbonate factories reduced the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 21st, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China has been around 5700-6000 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of on-site trading has not been boosted. The downstream is waiting for the market, and it is mainly for replenishment and stock up.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (6.13-6.20) propylene oxide market fell. Recently, the raw material propylene market rose first and then weakened. There is a certain support from the cost side. The factory shipments are flat, the downstream demand is light, and the reduction purchase is mainly followed up. The market mentality is cautious. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10500-10600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 20, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11033.33 yuan / ton, 2.07% lower than that on June 13. At present, the cost side support is acceptable, and the supply and demand side support is weak. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be under pressure in the short term.

Future trend analysis

At present, the supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate in the market is general, the demand side is weak as a whole, and the trading atmosphere is cold. The dimethyl carbonate datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

From June 10 to June 17, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly in the whole week, from 7947 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8071 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a weekly increase of 1.56%.

In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 75 basis points higher than expected, which was the largest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the past 30 years. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectations of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent of international crude oil futures fell to a two-week low.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical offers 9400 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9800 yuan / ton, and Weilian chemical offers 9503 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and pure benzene in the external market fell broadly this week, with bad fundamentals and limited support for the industrial chain. Sinopec has not adjusted the price of pure benzene this week, but most local refining enterprises have lowered it. In terms of supply, the centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene has come to an end, and new devices have been put into operation. The inventory of pure benzene in East China has started to rise slightly recently, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future. In the downstream, the recent performance of styrene is weak. On June 10, the price was 11100 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, down 1.8% compared with last week. The market transaction is general, and the spot price is slightly lower. Affected by multiple negative effects, the pure benzene market began to decline this week. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude benzene, although the industrial chain weakened as a whole this week, the bidding price of crude benzene still increased slightly this week. In Shandong, the price was 8070-8075 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. As for coking enterprises, after the increase of coke, supported by the recovery of profits, the coking enterprises started well recently, and the overall supply of crude benzene was relatively stable. Affected by the recent rise in the price of pure benzene, the downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises have started to operate relatively high recently, and their demand for crude benzene is acceptable. However, under the pressure of the overall downward trend of the industrial chain, it is expected that there will be some room for correction of crude benzene prices in the future.