1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5283.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.55%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 17, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 139.03, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5250 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with the price of 10125.00 yuan / ton, up 35.91% year-on-year over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7537.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7300.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.15%, an increase of 33.21% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. International potash prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

The spot tin market price (7.8-7.15) fell after the market shock this week. The average price in the domestic market was 192110 yuan / ton last weekend and 189810 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.2% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there is a total of one commodity rising in the non-ferrous sector, and the rising commodity is metallic silicon (2.43%). A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 6 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were nickel (-8.74%), zinc (-6.02%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-5.94%). The average rise and fall this week was -2.84%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 181500 yuan / ton- 1780 yuan / ton, three thousand eight hundred and eighty-three

London tin, 24775 dollars / ton- 345 dollars / ton, three thousand five hundred and fifty

This week, the futures market fell as a whole. Except for the sharp rise in the price on the 12th, it was in a downward trend as a whole. On the night of the 11th, the dollar rose sharply, crude oil prices fell significantly, and the overall performance of the metal market was mixed, with Lun Xi leading the rise of 2%, and Shanghai Xi’an rising more than 3%. In the morning trading on the 12th, Shanghai tin continued its upward trend at night and continued to lead the metal market. As of the closing of the 12th, the Shanghai tin 2208 contract closed up 2.45%, and the spot market rose by 8000-10000 yuan / ton on the same day. After the sharp rise, Shanghai tin fell for two consecutive days, creating an inverted “V” trend for Shanghai tin this week. In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. The downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the start-up of tin solder enterprises is generally low. In the near future, the trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that the trend of tin price will remain wide and volatile.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic market of PA6 fluctuated this week, and the spot prices of some brands fell after rising. As of July 15, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 15533.33 yuan / ton, up or down -0.43% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam fluctuated narrowly this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, international crude oil fell sharply, and external news support was weak. Moreover, the domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and the supply increases. Downstream products have poor profits, bargain hunting in demand, digestion of some low-end supply, which has a certain supporting effect on the spot price. It is expected that in the short term, the caprolactam market will still be reduced by a narrow margin.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is general, and the cost side support of PA6 is still weak this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant has limited changes, which is generally stable at 70%, and it is running sideways this week. In terms of news, the international crude oil was affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other factors in the early stage, and the decline in price volatility intensified, and the near and far cost side support of PA6 weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. The load of downstream enterprises was reduced by a narrow margin, but it was heard that inventories were overstocked. In the middle of the week, enterprises prepared goods to hold up the spot price, which fell back over the weekend. The purchaser is still cautious in taking goods, and small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated this week, caprolactam fell narrowly, and the cost support of PA6 remained weak. Downstream enterprises just need to maintain production when taking goods, and the on-site operation is biased towards bargain hunting. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of PA6 market may operate in a narrow range in the long short game.

This week (July 1 to July 8), the market price of electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 16650 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16650 yuan / ton at the end of this week, flat.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market maintained a slight decline, the futures market continued to fluctuate, and the overall price difference of superimposed steel bidding was too large. Although the manganese ore price continued to callback, the overall range has not been amplified. As of July 8, Tianjin Hong Kong Macao block was 58 yuan / ton degree, Gabon was 56.5 yuan / ton degree, 0.5 yuan / ton degree, and South Africa Semi carbonate was 39 yuan / ton degree.

The electrolytic manganese market operated weakly and stably this week. In terms of ex factory price, the mainstream ex factory tax price in the southern regions around Hunan and Guangxi was 14900-15100 yuan / ton, while the large northern manufacturers had not made a quotation recently. The domestic mainstream market price is around 15000-15200 yuan / ton, and the overall market performance is still weak. There is no market with price. In terms of demand, the progress of steel bidding in July is slow. The downstream stainless steel enterprises have reduced production recently, and the demand for manganese has declined to a certain extent, which is difficult to support the price of electrolytic manganese. Although the electrolytic manganese manufacturers have a collective production reduction plan recently, it has not been implemented as a whole. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will be stable and weak in the short term.

Manganese and manganese: domestic silicon and manganese consolidation is weak. This week, the futures disk is affected by the weakness of black, and it is difficult to sell at a high price on the spot side, and it is difficult to conclude a deal according to the manufacturer’s 8000 yuan / ton cash ex factory quotation. Because some traders hold certain low-cost purchasing resources on the disk, it has a great impact on retail. According to the price monitoring of business society, the mainstream quotation of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on July 8 was around 7750 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 7720 yuan / ton, It fell 2.03% from Monday.

Steel plant bidding: on July 8, Baosteel opened a new round of electrolytic manganese bidding, with a bidding quantity of 700 tons.

On July 8, the bidding price of Hegang group in July: C2.0 medium carbon ferromanganese 9800 fell by 900, the quantity was 2560 tons, and c0.7 low carbon ferromanganese 11000 fell by 1000, the quantity was 1026 tons.

On July 8, silicon manganese bidding of Hegang group in July: 7950 yuan / ton of factory acceptance including tax, and an increase of 50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous month, with a quantity of 22800 tons.

On July 1, Hebei Iron and Steel Group launched the bidding activity for electrolytic manganese in July, with a total bidding volume of 1300 tons, 400 tons less than that in June. The bidding deadline is 10:00 on July 4.

On July 7, Ma’anshan Iron and steel plant announced the steel bidding in July: the bidding quantity of electrolytic manganese is 300 tons, the bidding price is 15780 yuan / ton, and the delivery deadline is July 31.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to weakness, and Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5910.00 yuan / ton on July 5 and 5846.00 yuan / ton on July 12, with a decrease of 1.08% during the week and an increase of 33.37% over the same period last year.

As of July 12, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

North China, 5800-5900 yuan / ton

South China, 5650-58000 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5750-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5800-5950 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to weakness, the market was good and the support was insufficient, and the Shandong civil gas market fell violently. During the week, the international crude oil price fell first and then rose, and the cost side brought Limited benefits to the market. At present, affected by the traditional off-season sales, the terminal demand continues to be weak, the downstream mentality is more cautious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. In addition, the supply of Shandong market is relatively sufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand in the region is difficult to change, and the price is weak.

The recent weakness of LPG futures market has brought insufficient support to the spot market. On July 12, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2208 was 5388, the highest price was 5525, the lowest price was 5333, the closing price was 5457, the previous settlement price was 5478, the settlement price was 5453, down 21, the trading volume was 166451, the position was 53967, and the daily position was increased by 575. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Recently, the international crude oil price and futures market are both weak, which has brought Limited benefits to the market. In addition, the current seasonal impact is more obvious, the terminal consumption is slow, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high. Shandong’s market supply has not changed much, which is relatively abundant, and the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. It is expected that the market price of civil gas in Shandong will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly continuing to decline.

Cobalt prices fell in a volatile manner this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week. As of July 11, the cobalt price was 361200 yuan / ton, down 4.01% from 376300 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. Mobile phone sales fell sharply, cobalt market demand fell, cobalt market fell.

New energy vehicle sales pick up

The data released by the China Automobile Association on the economic operation of the automobile industry in June 2022 showed that in June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 590000 and 596000 respectively, an increase of 1.3 times year-on-year. From January to June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.661 million and 2.6 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a new high, and the demand of cobalt market rose.

Cobalt supply decreases

According to the latest data from the customs website, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials in May 2022 was 7100 tons of metal tons, down 4% month on month and 1% year on year. From January to may 2022, China’s total import of cobalt raw materials was 38800 tons of metal tons. In the first half of 22, the resumption of production of mutanda was not as fast as expected. Glencore reduced the annual guidance output of 3000 tons under the condition that the Q1 cobalt output increased by 43% year-on-year. In the middle of April, Durban, South Africa, suffered from floods, and the shipment of cobalt raw materials was affected. The shipment was resumed only in the middle of May. The arrival volume of intermediate products fell sharply in May, resulting in a decline in the arrival volume of intermediate products from late May to early June. The supply of cobalt fell, and the supply shortage of cobalt remained.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles are rising, the demand of cobalt market is picking up, the supply shortage of cobalt market remains, the downward pressure of cobalt price is weakened, and the upward momentum is increased. Cobalt prices stabilized this week, and the momentum for cobalt prices to rise in the future is large.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the PC market continued to decline last week, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of July 11, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 16400 yuan / ton, up or down -7.34% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the bisphenol a market fell below the new low in two years last week, and there was little demand on the floor. The industry chain is difficult to be positive, the terminal support is difficult, and the demand is weak. The industry’s profit performance is poor, coupled with the decline of international crude oil and phenol ketones, the upstream of the far and near end continues to decline, and the external market environment is in a depressed state. The business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

Last week, the upstream bisphenol a market continued to decline, falling below the 12000 yuan / ton mark, seriously weakening the PC cost side support. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises has continued to rise recently, and the load of some production lines has increased after maintenance. Industry inventory is high, and the pressure on PC supply side is even worse. The international crude oil in the far upstream also fell sharply due to the influence of the Federal Reserve and other reasons. The downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited by many factors, resulting in poor delivery. Although the floor has entered the trading mode of price for volume, it is currently in the off-season, with cold market transactions and lack of bottom support. Buyers’ mentality of buying up rather than buying down spread, businesses’ confidence was not strong, and the offer made a substantial profit.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: last week, the domestic PC market continued to fall, the upstream bisphenol a market fell deeply, and the cost side weakened the effect of PC support. In terms of supply, there are abundant goods on site, high inventory and light demand. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, acetic acid fell by 5.15% this week (7.4-8). Mainly affected by the increase in supply and the slowdown in demand, the Celanese unit resumed production, with Sinopec Great Wall resuming operation, the factory accumulated significantly, and the market supply surged. While the supply pressure increases, the overall demand in the downstream is weak, and the resistance of downstream factories to the current high price of acetic acid is increasing, affecting the willingness to purchase. So the callback period has not yet ended. At the weekend, the price of acetic acid is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate range fluctuated, the inertia fell at the beginning of the week, gradually stopped falling from the middle of the week to the weekend, and some rebounded. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 1.52%. At present, ethyl acetate is still affected by the negative impact of raw acetic acid. However, the transaction of Shandong big factory is in good condition, and the psychology of low price bottom hunting in the downstream leads to a slight premium. So the price of ethyl acetate rebounded slightly over the weekend, but from the terminal point of view, the order in July was still insufficient and the demand was relatively weak, which was still an important factor for the rebound of ethyl acetate. As of Friday, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

This week (7.4-8), the domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak and volatile, and the price fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 2.75%. On the one hand, the cost is bad, and the dual raw materials are lower. Compared with acetic acid, the decline of downstream butyl ester was relatively small, and the performance was relatively resistant to decline. The main reason was that the market supply remained within a reasonable range. Due to the long-term inactivity of butyl ester, the operating rate of the device was low, and remained below 40% in the first week of July. There is not much pressure on supply. Butyl acetate remained weak due to the relatively weak downstream demand. In addition, the price of raw material n-butanol was still low. According to monitoring, n-butanol fell by 19.73% in June. The rise and fall in the first week of July was 0. Superimposed on the price advantages of alternative products and other factors, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 9300-9600 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that in early July, the acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak as a whole, and the decline of acetic acid was still obvious, which had a great impact on the whole industrial chain. Downstream ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products all fell to varying degrees, but it was significantly weaker than acetic acid, indicating that downstream profits were still in a comfortable range.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the short term, the performance of the acetic acid industry chain is low, and the upstream costs are bad, which also eases the cost pressure on the downstream. Recently, acetic acid is still affected by the resumption of the plant, and loose supply will put pressure on the price. Downstream ethyl ester and butyl ester still have negative cost side. Considering the light downstream demand, the order performance in July was insufficient. It is expected that ethyl ester and butyl ester may still operate at a low level.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9975 yuan / ton on June 30, down 3.86% from the beginning of the month.

In terms of the operating rate, the overall operating rate of the carbon black market has been maintained at about 66% recently, and the logistics and transportation across the country are gradually smooth without other obstacles, which has improved the operation of carbon black manufacturers. However, due to weak downstream demand and limited enthusiasm for carbon black procurement, it is difficult for carbon black manufacturers to ship, and some manufacturers’ inventories are gradually high.

On the cost side, the auction price of raw coal tar has generally risen, causing further pressure on the cost of carbon black manufacturers. At present, the coke enterprises are operating stably, and the supply of coal tar in the market has not changed significantly, but the performance of downstream products continues to be poor.

On the demand side, the downstream tires in the domestic carbon black market operate at low load, the finished products of tire enterprises in the main market are shipped slowly, and the downstream performance of the tire market continues to be depressed. The inventory of tire enterprises is high, and the traditional off-season is coming. There is little bargaining on new orders in the venue, resulting in carbon black having no say in pricing. For tire factories, they can only implement the policy of shipping first and then pricing. Under the circumstances of high tire inventory and poor expectation of future market demand, some tire manufacturers continue to control production and reduce inventory.

On the whole, at present, the cost of carbon black in China has fallen, the demand for negative factors in the carbon black market is low, and the price of carbon black has shown a downward trend with the increase of inventory.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 11190 yuan / ton on June 24, and 10770 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China fell 3.75% this week.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 10750 yuan / ton on June 24, and 10733 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China fell by 0.16% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the cost support was insufficient. The trading of phosphoric acid on the floor is weak and the market is poor. The downstream purchases on demand, and the demand side waits for release. As of June 30, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10770 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10733 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 10300-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10250-10400 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 11000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this week. The domestic market reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market reference price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 950 yuan / ton. Large mining enterprises in some parts of China have suspended foreign supply, focusing on their own use. The spot circulation in the phosphorus ore market is insufficient. Under the two-way support of supply and demand, the focus of the phosphorus ore market is constantly moving upward.

The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the quotation of yellow phosphorus market is chaotic and the transaction situation is poor. Downstream and traders, mainly wait-and-see, purchase cautiously, and buy more at lower prices. The mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton, Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton, and Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the business society, the cost pressure has weakened due to the reduction in the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material. Floor trading decreased, terminal demand was not followed up, and the phosphoric acid market continued to decline. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to decline in the short term.

In June 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market fluctuated. The average price of the domestic market was 15105 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15150 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.3%.

On June 29, the lead commodity index was 91.96, down 0.09 points from yesterday, down 31.38% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.22% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Lead futures market in June 2022

varieties., Closing price on the 2nd, Closing price on the 24th, 2-day inventory, 24 day inventory

Shanghai lead, 14935 yuan / ton, 14890 yuan / ton, 87235 tons, 76413 tons

London lead, 2142 dollars / ton, 1939.5 dollars / ton, 38850 tons, 39600 tons

In June 2022, the lead price trend fluctuated widely. Although the monthly fluctuation was small, the overall trend fluctuated and fluctuated. It fluctuated many times during the month, with a fluctuation range of about 1.5%. Because the lead market is in a seasonal off-season recently, the trend basically follows the futures market. This month, the macro side is mixed with bad and good. Most of the trends of the non-ferrous market are ups and downs. Because the supply-demand relationship of lead itself is relatively less affected, but the overall trend is also UPS and downs.

In the domestic market, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season recently. Affected by the insufficient supply at the mine end, the smelter has reduced production significantly this month. The market is expected to tighten the supply, and the social inventory is currently at a low level. The tightening of supply has boosted the lead price. Recently, there are many macro news, and the non-ferrous market is obviously disturbed. Most of the prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the lead price fluctuates less compared with other varieties. The downstream is still in the off-season. The inventory of battery enterprises in the factory is high, the sales situation is general, and the demand for raw lead ingots is general. Under the background of the off-season, the market demand for lead ingots is weak, and the recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range shock trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

DOTP prices plummeted in June

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP plummeted in June. As of June 30, the price of DOTP was 9850 yuan / ton, down 18.76% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. With the advent of the off-season, the cost of raw materials fell sharply in June, and the DOTP market fell sharply.

The price of isooctanol plummeted in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell sharply in June. As of June 30, the isooctanol price was 9100 yuan / ton, down 26.81% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. When the off-season came, the price of isooctanol plummeted in June, the cost of DOTP fell, and the downward pressure on the DOTP market increased.

PTA prices rose first and then fell in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, PTA prices rose first and then fell in June. PTA prices rose with the fluctuation of crude oil prices in the first ten days of June, and the high crude oil prices fell in the middle and late ten days of June, and PTA prices followed the decline. As of June 30, PTA price was 6724 yuan / ton, down 1.78% from the PTA price of 6846 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. PTA prices fell, the cost of DOTP fell, the positive momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fell in June, PTA prices fell violently, isooctanol prices fell sharply in the off-season demand, DOTP costs fell, DOTP’s upward momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased. In the future, the decline in the cost of DOTP raw materials accumulated in the off-season of the market, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will plummet in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 1, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, which was 566 yuan / ton lower than that on June 26 (the reference price of n-butanol was 8566 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.61%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (6.27-7.1), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a decline as a whole. The on-site operating rate of n-butanol has increased compared with that in the early stage. After the equipment maintenance and repair in the early stage were resumed successively, the on-site supply of n-butanol increased. However, the downstream demand side improved generally and the effective support was insufficient. From June 27 at the beginning of this week, the off-site price of n-butanol was continuously reduced by the n-butanol factory by about 400-600 yuan / ton. As of July 1 this weekend, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7950-8100 yuan / ton, The decline in the week exceeded 6%. At present, the downstream bargain hunting of n-butanol just needs replenishment, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is peaceful.

In terms of upstream propylene, the price chart of business society shows that in early June, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and the price fell below 8000 yuan. It is reported. Due to the production of new units and the resumption of overhaul units, the supply of propylene has increased, market competition has intensified, and enterprises are forced by sales pressure to give up profits and goods, and some process routes are even in a state of loss. Downstream market demand is dominated by rigid demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand. In the middle of the month, the price began to stabilize and rebound, but the contradiction between supply and demand gradually appeared. The pressure of manufacturers to deliver goods increased, and the demand followed up slowly. In particular, the cost pressure on polypropylene remained unchanged, the demand was flat, and the commencement was limited. At the same time, other downstream products of propylene performed generally. The price continued to decline at the beginning of late June, the overall commencement of the industry was high, and the supply pressure remained.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong tends to be flat, and the low-end price transactions on the floor have improved. The n-butanol datagrapher of business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market situation in Shandong is relatively stable, mainly finishing and running, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 30 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, in June, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell in June. As of the 30th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10860 yuan / ton, down 5.24% from the beginning of the month. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose, and the market offer is gradually lowered; It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate and fall in the later period.

Upstream raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business news agency, as of June 29, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 13933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.35% compared with that on June 1, and down 8.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the cost support is limited, and some devices on the supply side are overhauled, but the downstream buying enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be deadlocked in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the LNG market was in the off-season in June, and the demand support was weak. The domestic LNG price continued to decline, falling by 10.56% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the decline of LNG in the first half of the month was 3.05%, and that in the second half of the month was 7.86%. Many liquid factories reduced prices and arranged warehouses, and liquid prices fell centrally. Near the end of the month, liquid prices in some regions rebounded slightly. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will be consolidated in the short term.

Future forecast: in June, the raw material cost continued to weaken, the downstream demand was flat, the market spot inventory was sufficient, and the transaction was average. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 17100 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 18520 yuan / ton, with an increase of 8.30% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 1.06%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 29:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-17900 yuan / ton

East China, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-18000 yuan / ton

South China, 18300-18500 yuan / ton, 17800-18000 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly. At present, the external quotation of major manufacturers is stable, and the supply is reduced, which has boosted the mentality of trade market operators. Subsequently, the quotation of traders is stable and upward. Coupled with the current low inventory at the social level, the market continues to push up. However, the actual transaction price needs to be further followed up.

In the middle of June, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise. Most of the major manufacturers supported their prices, and traders followed suit. The overall market atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of downstream demand is slightly modest, with small order replenishment as the main.

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market was sorted out at a high level, the follow-up of actual orders was very limited, and the atmosphere was stalemate. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, and the supply is relatively small. The downstream customers are in conflict with the high price, and just need to replenish the small order. The overall purchase desire is low.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: affected by the fluctuation of crude oil price in June, pure benzene was mainly subject to shock consolidation in the whole month.

In terms of aniline, the current high cost has supported the increase of aniline for many times. However, Shanghai Lianheng put in an overhaul plan in late June. If the overhaul plan is implemented, part of the contract volume will be released to the market, which has a certain negative impact on the market.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

The MDI device has a multi storage maintenance plan, and the supply is expected to shrink. According to the MDI analysts of the business community, the domestic MDI market is mainly in a stalemate.

In June, the domestic asphalt market rose first and then fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 4681 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 4607 yuan / ton. The price in the month fell by 1.58% and increased by 35.63% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic asphalt market maintained a rising trend. In terms of regions, the price increases in North China, Shandong and Northeast China were obvious, mainly supported by the cost of crude oil, and the downstream rigid demand was ok, so the market quotation continued to rise; Other regions are mainly driven by the price rise of Sinopec, in which Sinopec in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, and Sinopec in South China, Sichuan and Chongqing increased by 100 yuan / ton.

In the middle of May, domestic asphalt prices rose first and then fell. In terms of regions, the main areas of increase include East China, South China, southwest and Northwest China. Sinopec’s price rose by 50 yuan / ton, driving the market price upward. The falling regions include Shandong and North China, mainly due to the fall of crude oil prices, the outflow of some low-cost sources, and the price reduction and shipment of some major traders, which led to the decline of market prices.

In late June, the domestic asphalt market fell, mainly due to the fall in crude oil prices, the outflow of some low-cost sources, and the price reduction and shipment of some major traders, which led to a decline in market prices.

As of June 28, the factory quotation summary of major asphalt manufacturers in Shandong:

Enterprise, Device, Price

HSBC petrochemical, A 2.3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit has been started, with a daily output of 2000 tons ., 5180 yuan / ton

Jincheng petrochemical, 1500 tons per day ., 4300 yuan / ton

Kelida., There are two sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, one set of 3.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and one set of 1.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, 4700 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical, A set of 3million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is currently converted to residual oil, and the inventory will not be shipped temporarily, with a daily output of 2500-3000 tons ., 5200 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical, Normal shipment ., 4940 yuan / ton

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

The international crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range, the asphalt spot market was slightly flat, and there was no obvious contradiction between short-term supply and demand. The asphalt analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly sorted out.

In June, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11610 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of June 27), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.12% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 7.07%.

At the beginning of June, the market price of cyclohexanone continued the rising trend of last month, and the price was still high. With the start-up of maintenance devices, the supply increased, the shipment was affected, and the price of cyclohexanone continued to decline.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market was strong and rising, the price of raw material pure benzene was rising, and the cyclohexanone market rose significantly under the strong support of the cost.

In the middle of May, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose and fell, mainly due to the increase of supply. The cost support is stable. In terms of supply, Luxi and Lunan are exported, the market supply increases, and manufacturers actively sell goods at a profit. The market price then fell.

In late June, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline, the spot price of raw material pure benzene fell back, the cost side was lack of support, the downstream chemical fiber demand was weak, the cyclohexanone plant in southern Shandong was restarted, the market supply was abundant, the shipment was obviously blocked, and the price continued to fall.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of June 27:

region ., Price

East China, 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11300-11500 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 10700-10800 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of raw material pure benzene rises first and then falls, following the change of crude oil. Crude oil fell deeply, the external market weakened significantly, and the external support of pure benzene weakened.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam continued to fall. The upstream cost support is weakened, the downstream polymerization plant is reduced, caprolactam is under two-way pressure, and the northern spot supply is abundant recently, the overall confidence in the market is weak, and the price is falling rapidly.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

In the short term, pure benzene operates at a high level, the cost support is still stable, and cyclohexanone has lost money, and the demand may be expected to increase. The cyclohexanone analysts of business agency predict that the short-term decline of cyclohexanone market is limited.

According to the data of business agency, on June 24, the average p value of oil based ethylene glycol was 4900 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, a year-on-year decrease of 5.04%.

In terms of units, the 400000 ton unit of Sinopec refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down yesterday. It is estimated that the ethylene glycol unit of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down on June 18 due to an accident; Shanxi woneng 300000 ton plant was shut down on June 15, with a plan of about 20 days; Xinjiang Tianye 300000 ton plant is planned to restart at the end of June; The 450000 ton unit of far east alliance is planned to be restarted in early July.

On the upstream side, there is a game between supply and demand of crude oil. Brent and WTI crude oil are still in a serious spot premium state, and the oil supply is still as tight as before. However, it is expected that the increase in inventories and investors’ concern that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike may plunge the US economy into recession, thus curbing the demand for fuel.

The supply of goods in the ethylene glycol market is sufficient, and the market mentality is generally bearish, resulting in a depressed atmosphere of goods inquiry and low intention of terminal buyers to receive goods. As of June 23, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1.247 million tons, an increase of 68500 tons over last Thursday, an increase of 5.81%, and an increase of 29600 tons over this Monday, an increase of 2.43%. There is no sign that the inventory will decline significantly in the short term. Buyers and end users are not keen on purchasing imported goods at present. Downstream demand is sluggish, polyester and polyester production and sales are still light, the trading atmosphere is poor, and the actual orders are generally promoted. Traders maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Forecast: Although the current ethylene glycol price is close to the support level, the prospect of ethylene glycol market is still weak due to high port inventory and concerns about demand.

The price of orthobenzene rose strongly this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of benzene price of business club that the price of benzene rose this week, the price of xylene in the external market rose violently, and the domestic market of xylene rose strongly. As of June 20, the price of orthobenzene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 5.68% from 8800 yuan / ton on June 12 last week; Compared with 8600 yuan / ton of orthobenzene at the end of May, the price increased by 8.14%. The cost of neighboring benzene rose this week, and the market of neighboring benzene rose strongly this week.

Mixed xylene prices fell at a high level this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community that the high crude oil price this week fluctuated and adjusted, and the high mixed xylene price fell back. As of June 19, the price of mixed xylene was 8860 yuan / ton, down 3.70% from 9200 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the high price of mixed xylene fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the downward pressure on o-xylene increased.

The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

As can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of business club, the price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of June 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8675 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from the price of 8500 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The price of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the downstream market of o-xylene slowly recovered.

Outlook

According to the analysts of o-xylene data of business agency, the high crude oil price fell this week, the price of mixed xylene fell violently, and the raw material cost of o-xylene fell; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the downstream market of orthobenzene slowly recovered. In general, the cost of o-xylene decreased, the downstream demand recovered, the external price of o-xylene fluctuated and rose, and the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is still under increasing downward pressure. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will stabilize in the future.

This week (June 13-17), the domestic ethyl acetate continued to decline. According to the statistics of the business agency, the decline this week was 2.33%, mainly because the raw material acetic acid fell sharply, major manufacturers lowered prices one after another, and the retail prices of major factories in Shandong continued to fall, which dampened market confidence, the market turnover was average, affecting the market mentality, and the downstream demand was weak. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, the domestic acetic acid fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic acid fell as much as 23.9%. Although the operating rate of acetic acid is not high, and the inventory of upstream factories is low, the overall sales pressure is not great, but due to the weak overall demand of downstream factories, the willingness of downstream factories to purchase is poor. It is also when acetic acid is pulled to a relatively high point, and the downstream resistance is increasing, so the high callback risk is intensified.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, and the price of downstream ethyl acetate is relatively strong. At present, the curve is close, indicating that the profit of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises is expected to improve.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable this week, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is roughly 60%. The main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, most manufacturers generally lowered their ex factory prices by about 200 yuan / ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and arranged the warehouse, dampening the market confidence. Some manufacturers in South China have reduced their production load. At present, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers is obvious, and the market expectation is weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

From the demand side, the downstream procurement generally slowed down. This week, the purchase intention of dealers and downstream factories was weak, and the downstream orders contracted, resulting in a significant slowdown in the delivery speed. There are few transactions in the market. At present, the market mainly deals at the low-end price of small orders. In addition to some downstream stocking demand, the overall market demand remains depressed.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business club believe that the raw material acetic acid has retreated significantly, and the cost is obviously bad. It is also difficult to see much in the supply and demand side. Transactions at the low end of the market are better than those at the high end. Therefore, it is expected that ethyl acetate may still have downward space.

According to the monitoring data of business club, as of June 21, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5733 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton lower than that on June 15, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5866 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.27%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the late June period (6.15-6.21), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was first adjusted and operated at a high level, and then the price was reduced by a narrow margin. Since the last ten days of June 15, the overall high level of domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been stable and consolidated. The overall downstream demand is cautious and the trading atmosphere is general. At the time of the 17th, I heard that the actual transaction of dimethyl carbonate on the floor had a small margin of profit transfer, and the buying gas was light. From the 20th, some dimethyl carbonate factories reduced the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 21st, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China has been around 5700-6000 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of on-site trading has not been boosted. The downstream is waiting for the market, and it is mainly for replenishment and stock up.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (6.13-6.20) propylene oxide market fell. Recently, the raw material propylene market rose first and then weakened. There is a certain support from the cost side. The factory shipments are flat, the downstream demand is light, and the reduction purchase is mainly followed up. The market mentality is cautious. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10500-10600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 20, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11033.33 yuan / ton, 2.07% lower than that on June 13. At present, the cost side support is acceptable, and the supply and demand side support is weak. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be under pressure in the short term.

Future trend analysis

At present, the supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate in the market is general, the demand side is weak as a whole, and the trading atmosphere is cold. The dimethyl carbonate datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

From June 10 to June 17, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly in the whole week, from 7947 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8071 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a weekly increase of 1.56%.

In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 75 basis points higher than expected, which was the largest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the past 30 years. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectations of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent of international crude oil futures fell to a two-week low.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical offers 9400 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9800 yuan / ton, and Weilian chemical offers 9503 yuan / ton.

Crude oil and pure benzene in the external market fell broadly this week, with bad fundamentals and limited support for the industrial chain. Sinopec has not adjusted the price of pure benzene this week, but most local refining enterprises have lowered it. In terms of supply, the centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene has come to an end, and new devices have been put into operation. The inventory of pure benzene in East China has started to rise slightly recently, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in the future. In the downstream, the recent performance of styrene is weak. On June 10, the price was 11100 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, down 1.8% compared with last week. The market transaction is general, and the spot price is slightly lower. Affected by multiple negative effects, the pure benzene market began to decline this week. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude benzene, although the industrial chain weakened as a whole this week, the bidding price of crude benzene still increased slightly this week. In Shandong, the price was 8070-8075 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. As for coking enterprises, after the increase of coke, supported by the recovery of profits, the coking enterprises started well recently, and the overall supply of crude benzene was relatively stable. Affected by the recent rise in the price of pure benzene, the downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises have started to operate relatively high recently, and their demand for crude benzene is acceptable. However, under the pressure of the overall downward trend of the industrial chain, it is expected that there will be some room for correction of crude benzene prices in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. It was mainly purchased in the downstream. The purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly arranged and delivered by contracted customers. The number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, and the upstream remains high, The price of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, and the cost pressure remains.

Upstream lithium carbonate: on June 16, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton). On June 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on June 17, the bulk commodity price index BPI was 1195 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 11.02% from 1343 points (October 19, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 81.06% from 660 points, the lowest point on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business club, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main factor in the short term, and the price fluctuation range is small. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1283.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1293.33 yuan / ton, up 0.78%. The current price fell 3.00% month on month, and the current price rose 0.26% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde is rising after falling recently, and the market continues to explore this week. As of June 16, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1260-1320 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen in a narrow range. Supported by the cost, formaldehyde has tentatively risen. It is difficult for downstream demand to improve. It is just needed to purchase. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market is slightly driven by the cost.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has risen recently. The continuous high price of raw coal has led to a good atmosphere in the whole industrial chain. At the same time, the high volatility of the crude oil market has also led to the rise of the chemical market on the macro level. However, after the lower receiving price rose slightly, the rising oil price led to a shortage of return transport capacity, and there is still room for freight to rise. The demand side performance was average, and the methanol spot turned to be stable and wait-and-see in the middle and late weeks of the week.

This week, the methanol market rose. Driven by the rising cost, the formaldehyde manufacturers intended to increase the quotation, but the operation of the downstream plate plant did not improve. The demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, and the market transaction was general. It was difficult to increase the formaldehyde price, so the formaldehyde market was explored slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has gone up, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants has continued to be weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency predict that the recent formaldehyde price rise in Shandong is mainly shock.

According to the monitoring of business club, adipic acid in China continued to rise this week (6.6-10). The weekly increase was 0.9%. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 12000-12300 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the price of upstream pure benzene rose after the festival, which brought support from the cost side. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the listed price of the manufacturer increased to support the market, while the terminal demand was still cautious, and the supply and demand remained basically balanced, which was also the fundamental reason why the adipic acid price did not rise significantly.

In terms of market supply, this week, adipic acid operating rate remained at the previous level, and currently remains at about 60%. At the beginning of the month, the listed part of the large factory was increased by about 500 yuan. The manufacturer’s inventory pressure is OK, mainly due to price hikes. In terms of commencement, temporary maintenance of some Shenma units this week; The load of Taiyuan Chemical Plant was reduced and started, about 80%; The load of Zhonghao unit is reduced to 80%; Hongding and Haili equipment continue to stop. There is no great pressure on the overall market supply.

Trend of adipic acid industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the adipic acid industrial chain showed a pattern of strong upstream and weak middle and downstream. The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene increased to varying degrees, especially pure benzene, but adipic acid remained weak, indicating that the manufacturer’s profits fell slightly. In addition, the downstream PA66 continued its decline this week, and the terminal maintained a weak level.

Market trend of pure benzene upstream adipic acid

Market trend of cyclohexanone upstream adipic acid

Recently, pure benzene has increased significantly. After the festival, the manufacturer adjusted the price twice. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene was about 5.46%. In addition, cyclohexanone rose well this week, rising by 2.93%. Bring cost guidance to adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: adipic acid downstream is still relatively weak. Downstream procurement continued to slow down. According to the monitoring of business agency, PA66 in the downstream of adipic acid fell by 2.9% this week. Due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry has decreased recently, but the overall range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Although the health incidents in East China have been greatly alleviated and the logistics situation in many places has gradually recovered, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business community believes that the upstream pure benzene and cyclohexanone support is obvious. The manufacturer has a strong price support mentality, which will further form a strong support for the price of adipic acid. The pressure on the superimposed supply side is not large, and it is expected that the adipic acid price may still rebound in the near future. However, considering the weak demand, the market growth should be treated with caution.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly in the first ten days of June. As of June 10, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3275 yuan / ton, down 2.24% from 3350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In the first ten days of June, the spot price of methanol rose slightly, supported by the cost. According to the business agency, as of June 10, the price of methanol was 2657 yuan / ton, up 1.53% from 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of the downstream refrigerant market of chloroform are shrinking, the price is weak, and the demand for chloroform is weak.

Analysts of the methane chloride data of the business society expect that the imbalance between supply and demand will be difficult to change in the short term, but in the later period, with the arrival of the peak air conditioning season, the demand for chloroform will increase or stop falling.

This week (June 2 to June 10), the market price of 1# electrolytic manganese rose. The spot market price in East China was 16550 yuan / ton last weekend and 16800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.51%.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market maintained the upward trend of price support, and the external quotation was basically settled. The manufacturers’ demand for goods was still concentrated on semi carbonic acid and Gabon ore. the transaction volume of semi carbonic acid in South Africa rose to 45 yuan / ton degree, that in Gabon was 59 yuan / ton degree, and that in Australia rose to 59.5 yuan / ton degree. The southern market also rose, and the price was basically in line with that in the north. On the whole, the downstream manufacturers are also relatively passive, mainly taking goods on demand.

The electrolytic manganese market rose slightly this week. The mainstream market price this week was 15400-15600 yuan / ton, up about 300 yuan / ton compared with last week. In terms of steel bidding, on the 7th, the bidding price of electrolytic manganese of North China steel plant in June was still 15800 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month, but the overall quantity decreased by 250 tons compared with the bidding in May. The bidding price of electrolytic manganese for steel plants in Hebei is 16200 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton compared with that in May. The bidding price of steel has boosted market confidence. This week, the market price has increased slightly, but the overall transaction situation is general, and the market trading is relatively cold. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the manufacturers’ price support mentality is still strong. It is expected that the market price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, with limited upside space.

In terms of manganese and silicon: the trend of domestic silicon and manganese is good this week. Following the recovery trend of black and coking coal, the short-term high price of about 8650 yuan / ton hit again from the front line of 8500 yuan / ton, which is better than the spot end, while the spot end is restricted by the steel bidding price in June. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia region (the specification is femn68si18) was around 8200-8250 yuan / ton on June 10, and the average market price was 8225 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from Monday.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 15866.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.15%. On June 9, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 79.53, down 0.5 points from yesterday, down 24.67% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 123.84% from the lowest point of 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 15400 yuan / ton, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde made an ex factory offer of 15500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde had a sales quotation of 15200 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 8080.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7930.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.86%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 17500.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.96%. The neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream demand was good, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of June, the market trend of isobutyraldehyde may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of business club believes that the isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a small shock and decline in the short-term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 9, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was 22080 yuan / ton, which was 1380 yuan / ton higher than the price on June 7, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 20700 yuan / ton), or 6.67%. Compared with the price on june1,2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC is 22560 yuan / ton), the price is reduced by 480 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in June, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was generally weak and downward. On the first day of construction after the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong major manufacturers continued to adjust the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC downward, with an adjustment range of 1400 yuan / ton and a reference price of 20000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. So far, the organosilicon DMC has fallen into the era of 20000 yuan, and the quotations of other factories are mostly around 21000-22000 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere in the venue is weak, Some factories closed their offers without reporting. On the 7th, the performance of pre orders received by leading manufacturers after the festival was general, and the organosilicon DMC was also significantly reduced. The quotation was around 20500 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the organosilicon DMC was narrowed, around 20000-21000 yuan / ton. On the 8th, the market finally ushered in a turnaround. The quotation of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton, and that of some other monomer factories was increased by 500 yuan / ton. In the face of the long-standing low market situation, the organosilicon DMC industry had a strong desire to rise, and the voices of price support and wait-and-see coexisted. On the 9th, the price of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was increased by a wide margin again, and the quotation price of organosilicon DMC was increased to 22300 yuan / ton, and most other factories followed the rise, The mainstream market price rose back to around 22000-22500 yuan / ton. At present, the market is still closed, and a single discussion is also common. When the market was low in the early stage, the enthusiasm of some downstream companies to prepare goods has been improved. At present, the market is more cautious after rising.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since June, the domestic metal silicon market has been mainly operating with a slight decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 8, the reference price of metallic silicon was 17090 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.81% compared with that on June 1 (17230 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, whether the organosilicon DMC can be effectively transmitted to the downstream after the rise still needs the support of the demand side and the terminal’s ability to digest raw materials. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market will mainly operate in a large, stable and small way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side.

On June 8, the acetic anhydride market was strong and stable temporarily

According to the monitoring data of the business club, on June 8, the price of acetic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily, and the market of acetic anhydride was stable temporarily. On June 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 8550.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride of 8550 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of acetic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the overall market of acetic anhydride is stabilizing at a high level.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol rebounded and the raw material cost of acetic anhydride rose strongly. Some acetic acid enterprises started their business stably, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the sales of acetic anhydride was poor. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the customers’ willingness to purchase was general. It was mainly wait-and-see. The pressure of acetic anhydride decline was still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is poor, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride is still strong. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

This week (5.20-5.27), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 14050 yuan / ton, up 1.59% from 13830 yuan / ton on May 20.

The ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises has been raised. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 27, the ex warehouse price of Qilu cis-1,9-polybutadiene of Sinopec North China sales company was 13900 yuan / ton. In addition, the international crude oil was running at a high level and the price of raw butadiene was rising significantly, so the market offer of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose.

This week (5.20-5.27), butadiene prices rose sharply, and the cost side supported again. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the price of butadiene was 10735 yuan / ton, up 6.07% from 10121 yuan / ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market fluctuated upward. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 27, the price of natural rubber was 12910 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from 12750 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the commencement of downstream tires increased slightly to more than 60%, and there was a small replenishment of rubber. The international crude oil price was running at a high level, and the market bullish mentality increased.

Future forecast: the analysts of the business community believe that the rebound in raw material costs is supported, and the downstream start-up is slightly higher. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, which was 2.05% higher than that on May 1. It was flat year-on-year in a three-month cycle, down 31.70% compared with the same period last year.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene fell after rising, and the cost support changed from strong to weak. Under the support of the cost side, in addition, most of the on-site devices operated at a slightly low load, the supply side decreased, the shipment was good, the price of propylene oxide rose, and the subsequent price was restrained by the cold demand side. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene gradually fell, and the cost support gradually weakened. During the maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices, the downstream purchase was reduced, and the manufacturers’ inventory was gradually under pressure. The price fell. In the last ten days, the supply side was mainly stable, and the inventory was slowly accumulated. However, the manufacturers’ multi inventory pressure was controllable, which supported the market mentality. The downstream demand was cold, and the market was in a stalemate after a small rise.

Upstream propylene market rose and fell in May. According to the bulk list data of business agency, in May, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose first and then declined. The overall market fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 8414 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 8070 yuan / ton, a monthly decline of 4.09%.

The monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol showed that on May 30, the reference price of propylene glycol was 13000.00, an increase of 15.04% compared with May 1 (11300.00).

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business agency, propylene is currently in a weak position, the price of liquid chlorine is high, and the cost is supported to a certain extent. The inventory in the northern market is mostly pressureless, which supports the price support mentality of manufacturers. The demand side is waiting to follow up. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may rise steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

In May, the domestic acetone market generally rose, with three stages respectively: the factory pushed up the market, the downstream demand shrank after phased procurement, and the cost support continued to rise at the end of the month, showing an “n” trend. During the month, the national acetone market rose by 8.63%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5650 yuan / ton on May 1, and 6137 yuan / ton on May 31, an increase of 8.63% in the month. By the end of the month, the offer in East China was about 6050 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6180 yuan / ton, and that in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was 6150-6200 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

After the May Day holiday, the port inventory increased, but the factories increased under the pressure of cost. After the holiday, the prices in some regions increased, and the operating rates in some regions increased. The prices before the holiday continued to decline. Many downstream factories did not replenish a large amount of goods. With the increase of upstream raw materials, acetone also increased, and the purchase intention of downstream factories increased. After the holiday, the repair news of Yangzhou Shiyou device, and the expected supply of domestic goods sources decreased, It rose to nearly 6000 yuan / ton in the three working days after the festival. After a round of replenishment, the offer was pushed to a high level. In the new week, the Hong Kong stock exchange continued to replenish a large number of goods, while the pressure of the goods holders increased significantly, and the offer was callback. In addition, the market trading entered a stalemate in the middle of the month, making it difficult to release the floor trading volume. In the later stage, with the continuous rise of international crude oil, the rising cost of pure benzene increased significantly, the phenol and ketone plant theory entered a state of loss, and the plant was also expected to increase. At the end of the month, the terminal MMA plant was replenished. Jiangsu Jiankun’s 150000 T / a MMA plant was planned to be put into operation. After market inquiry, the trading atmosphere was improved. At the end of the month, the pressure on the goods holders was reduced, and the market continued to rise with the help of the factory’s repeated increases.

The downstream bisphenol a market as a whole rose first and then fell. In late May, the bisphenol a market fell significantly. Near the end of the month, the on-site negotiation was 15000-15200 yuan / ton, the participation of low-cost intermediate traders increased, and the terminal factories also had inventory demand. It is expected that the market may improve after the holiday.

At present, the operating rate of acetone unit is close to 90%. Yangzhou Shiyou unit is expected to restart and recover on June 10. Tianjin Zhongsha unit is expected to have short-term maintenance in June. Other units are in normal operation. The supply side of domestic sources of goods has little change. The imported sources of goods are still dominated by contracts, and the replenishment should be close to 50000 tons. At present, the international oil price is high, and the cost is also high. It is still difficult for the factory to make profits, and there is no lack of expectation that the factory will support the price. The business club expects that the domestic acetone market will gradually improve, and the actual order situation will continue to be concerned.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1813 yuan / ton on May 1, and 1720 yuan / ton on May 31. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 5.15% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell after stable fluctuation this month. In the first half of May, the ammonium sulfate market fluctuated at a high level, and the market price rose slightly. As ammonium sulfate continued to rise before the festival, ammonium sulfate inquiries increased after the festival. Downstream enterprises and dealers are mainly cautious. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the price of domestic grade ammonium sulfate was mainly high. Urea continued to rise, which was good for ammonium sulfate Market. From the second half of May, the price of ammonium sulfate began to fall. The trading atmosphere on the floor was acceptable, but the new orders were limited. Ammonium sulfate enterprises cut prices slightly. There are many on-site inquiries, but the downstream and dealers are cautious in purchasing, which is inconsistent with high prices. The prices of coking grade and Hexian grade ammonium sulfate have been reduced by shock. As of May 31, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1650 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is about 1600 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of Hexian ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1740-1840 yuan / ton.

Downstream compound fertilizer market this month. The downstream compound fertilizer market was strong at a high level this month. Bullish sentiment increased. As the raw materials of compound fertilizer urea, monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer have risen sharply, the cost pressure has increased. Most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are selling at competitive prices, and some enterprises have suspended quotation, mainly issuing early-stage orders.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of the business agency, there is no good news in the market for the time being due to the downstream resistance to the high price of ammonium sulfate and the weakening demand. The high price of ammonium sulfate has dropped. Caprolactam enterprises stopped production for maintenance or planned shutdown for maintenance, and the on-site supply decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate downward.

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of Shandong isooctanol rose in a narrow range this month, from 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.08%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 15.00%.

On May 30, the isooctanol commodity index was 92.16, down 0.73 points from yesterday, down 32.97% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 162.19% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose slightly this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

Insufficient upstream support and general downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell this month. The price fell from 8414.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8070.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.09%, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is insufficient. Downstream DOP prices rose in a narrow range, with a downward trend at the end of the month. The DOP price rose from 11775.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11912.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.20% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose slightly, and the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the future

In the middle and early June, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene price has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream DOP market has a downward trend at the end of the month. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may suffer a small shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell slightly this month. The average price of the domestic mainstream neopentyl glycol market fell from 17533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 700 yuan / ton, or 3.99%. On May 30, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 81.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.71% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 26.24% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Domestic neopentyl glycol market in May

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell slightly this month

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this month. The isobutyraldehyde price rose from 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20.47%. High level consolidation at the end of the month. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, which had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and early June, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market was consolidated at a high level at the end of the month, the cost support was good, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price data

According to the data in the bulk list of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell slightly this week. On May 29, the average price in Shandong market was 4907.75 yuan / ton, down 1.51% from the price of 4982.75 yuan / ton on May 23.

On May 29, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 381.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.60% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 470.67% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell, market shipments improved, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon has been lowered; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum was lowered. As of May 29, the price was 20503.33 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, and the downstream carbon enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood and purchase more on demand.

The petroleum coke analysts of business agency believe that the inventory of imported coke has increased this week, the supply of petroleum coke market has increased, the refineries have actively shipped, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of may27,2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was set at 24080 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on may1,2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 26940 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 2860 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.36%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that in May, the domestic organosilicon DMC market continued to decline as a whole. In the first ten days of May, the organosilicon DMC market operated in a volatile manner. After the big factory in Shandong lowered the price of organosilicon DMC for two consecutive days, it made a rapid correction on the 9th and 10th. The market was disturbed by this rapid rise and fall. The wait-and-see in the downstream became more and more intense, the goods were prepared carefully, and the demand transmission was slow. In the middle and last ten days of May, the domestic organosilicon DMC market opened a downward path. On the 16th, the big factory in Shandong quoted an organosilicon DMC price of 26200 yuan / ton, With certain market advantages in Shandong, some other factories also lowered the price of organosilicon DMC after their orders were less than expected. The gap between high and low prices in the market narrowed. Downstream demand was still cautious and the wait-and-see mood remained unchanged. On the 20th, Shandong big factories lowered the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 24500 yuan / ton again. Subsequently, the leading big factories also continued to adjust the price downward to 25000 yuan / ton, but the downstream replenishment was still normal, The effective support of organosilicon DMC was insufficient. At the end of the month, the market focus of organosilicon DMC continued to decline. On the 27th, the quotation of organosilicon DMC from Shandong big factory was 23400 yuan / ton, and the factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 23400-24000 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 11% in the month. At present, the operating rate of organosilicon DMC is on the high side, the supply on site is relatively sufficient, and the downstream mainly needs replenishment.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in May, the metal silicon 411# market generally showed a downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of metal silicon was 18570 yuan / ton on May 26, a decrease of 10.64% compared with May 1 (20780 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the substantial boost of downstream demand for organosilicon DMC has not yet been fully demonstrated. Some downstream companies are still waiting to see the market trend. In addition, the weak raw material side supports organosilicon DMC. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC Market will be dominated by weak operation. Whether the market trend will meet the inflection point needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of the mainstream light potassium carbonate in Shanxi was 9550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 9700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.57%, the current price increased by 6.99% month on month, and the current price increased by 44.35% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate rose this week. As can be seen from the above figure, the potassium carbonate market has fluctuated higher in the past month, and the market continues to rise this week, mainly because of the shortage of goods in the market and the rumor of domestic potassium rising expectation in the market. Driven by this news, the potassium carbonate manufacturers continue to increase their quotation, and the market continues to rise. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 9400-9700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride is temporarily stable. At present, the price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5300-5400 yuan / ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride is about 4400-5000 yuan / ton. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium carbonate.

Recently, the stock of imported potash port is still declining, new border trade sources are gradually crossing the shore, and the market supply is still in short supply. It is expected that the price of potash will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

This week, the domestic EVA market entered the consolidation stage, and the price has not changed significantly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 24400.00 yuan / ton on May 17 and 24400.00 yuan / ton on May 24. During this period, the price remained stable, up 19.22% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 24, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Products, manufactor., model., Ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical, 18J3., 25000 yuan / ton

EVA., Beijing Organic, Y2022., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., BASF Yangzi, V5110J ., 26200 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic EVA market entered the consolidation stage after rising, and the overall trend is relatively strong. At present, the market is mixed with bad news. The first is the cost. Recently, the international crude oil price has pushed up, the news is good for the market mentality, and the market price of raw material vinyl acetate has been adjusted at a high level. In addition, the demand for photovoltaic materials is good, which also brings some benefits to the market. There is no obvious fluctuation in the offer of petrochemical enterprises, and the price is stable. However, there are still negative factors. Due to the relatively high EVA price, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, cautious attitude, general enthusiasm for entering the market, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is weak, and the driving force for the continued rise of the market is insufficient.

On the whole, the current international crude oil price is high, and the cost has brought some support to the market. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises is controllable and their mentality is strong. However, the lower reaches have limited ability to accept high prices, the overall trading atmosphere is general, and the bad market is still obvious. The EVA market is expected to maintain consolidation in the short term.

This week (may 16-20), the bottom of domestic butyl acetate was weak, and the price was mainly flat. The main reason is that the cost support of acetic acid upstream of butyl acetate is weakened and the demand is relatively weak. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate rose or fell by 0% this week. At the weekend, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate is 9700-10000 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol both stopped rising and fell at a high level. According to the business agency, acetic acid fell by 0.20% this week and n-butanol fell by 0.33% this week.

In terms of acetic acid, the price of domestic acetic acid stopped rising and stabilized this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of acetic acid this week was 0.20%. Due to the sharp price rise in the early stage and obvious resistance in the downstream, the Guangxi Huayi plant resumed operation, and the market supply pressure was significantly relieved. However, after the price of acetic acid stabilized, there was no obvious downward trend, mainly due to the support of downstream demand, and the expected overhaul of large acetic acid plants boosted the price. Overall, the high cost effect of acetic acid still supports the downstream ethyl ester, and the decline of butyl may slow down due to the impact of high cost.

N-butanol: this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of the week, the high-end price on the floor was generally traded. Some n-butanol factories in Shandong made profit and shipped goods. The ex factory price of n-butanol was slightly reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was referred to about 9800-10000 yuan / ton. Then, in the middle of the week, the low-end price on the floor was well traded, and the n-butanol market rebounded slightly. On the 18th, the n-butanol market in Shandong increased steadily and slightly, with an increase range of around 100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9900-10000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of n-butanol in South China was still above 10000 yuan, with a reference of around 10300-10400 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is mild, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is good.

In terms of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, the units of large factories in North China are shut down, local supply is tightened, and the market is slightly divided. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Although the epidemic situation has improved, there are still restrictions on local transportation, and the rise of freight rates has suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason why the price of butyl has not rebounded sharply with the raw materials.

The domestic epoxy resin market fell significantly, mainly due to the decline of both raw materials and liquid resin market. According to the monitoring data of business society, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China was quoted at 25800-26200 yuan / ton on May 23, which fell at the opening. The offer of liquid resin Market in East China is 25800-26200 yuan / ton in barrels, and the offer of solid resin Market in Shandong is 22200 yuan / ton.

region ., Specifications., offer

East China, E51., 25800-26300

Shandong Province, E12., 22000-22300

Material bisphenol A: wait and see at the opening of the new week and wait for the results of the on-site auction. The auction result of Huadong Petrochemical is that the self offered price of superior products fell by 400 yuan / ton, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere increased. Then the offer intention of the cargo holder fell. The downstream pays attention to the progress of the auction and market news. The mainstream offer in East China is up to 16000 yuan / ton.

The high level of epichlorohydrin market fell. The reference price of epichlorohydrin in East China market was 18400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan from the previous week. After the shortage of epichlorohydrin, the downstream manufacturers did not follow up the high price of epichlorohydrin. At present, the price of glycerol is high, and the price has fallen to near the cost line of glycerol based cyclochlorine, so the intention of glycerol based cyclochlorine manufacturers to continue to lower is not high; However, at present, the gross profit of propylene process cyclochlorine is about 8000 yuan / ton. During the week, the propylene process cyclochlorine factory actively offered profits for shipment, further reducing the focus of negotiation in the cyclochlorine market.

The overall negotiation of epoxy resin market is cold, and the downstream demand side has not changed. It is expected that the epoxy resin will continue to be depressed in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of May 20, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 13450 yuan / ton, up or down – 5.28% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fluctuated this week, with an overall rise. The market was mainly supported by cost benefit, and pure benzene and crude oil boosted the spot price of styrene. The downstream demand is poor in the short term, and the market transaction is weak. It is expected that the styrene market may continue to fluctuate.

Acrylonitrile prices fell this week. In the early stage, there were many news about the resumption of work and commencement in China, and the supply increased. The demand is still lagging behind. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the field. In addition, the impact of health events on transportation is still ongoing. The downstream demand performance is general. The spot ex factory price is subject to multiple pressures, or will continue to fall.

The domestic butadiene market rose this week. Recently, some devices are still under maintenance, and the supply side is good. Domestic sources of goods are actively exported. Near the weekend, some production enterprises raised their ex factory quotation, which has a good response. Butadiene analysts of business society predict that the domestic butadiene market is expected to rise in the short term.

The overall support of the three upstream materials at the ABS cost end this week is general. In terms of industry load, the domestic production line resumed in the early stage, and the operating rate of ABS enterprises has increased compared with last month. The mentality of manufacturers has weakened and the factory price has been reduced. China’s health incidents still have a great impact on some parts of East China. Logistics and production are affected, which depresses a certain amount of demand. The goods are not smooth in the field, and the offer falls. Tensions in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remained, causing crude oil to rise in shock. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market differences are large. At present, the main bad news in the market is the contraction of downstream demand.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials is weak, which is difficult to form a strong support for the cost side of ABS. The domestic spot supply is abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is higher than that in the early stage. The demand follow-up is not good. At the same time, the load of downstream household appliances and other industries decreases, superimposed with the impact of blocked transportation. The operators have poor confidence in the future market. It is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to be weak in the short term.

The price of orthobenzene rose this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene rose this week and the price of orthoxylene rose this week. On May 16, the price of o-benzene was 8400 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton or 2.44% from 8200 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week. The cost of orthobenzene rose this week and the orthobenzene market picked up.

Mixed xylene prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene of business society, the crude oil price fluctuated and rose this week, the price of mixed xylene stopped falling and rose, and the overall mixed xylene market recovered. As of May 16, the price of mixed xylene was 7660 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from 7610 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the price of 7330 yuan / ton of mixed xylene on May 1, it increased by 4.50%. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, the cost of o-xylene rose, the downward pressure of o-xylene weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fell weakly

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly. As of May 16, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8025.00 yuan / ton, down 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of last week; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 1.38% from 8137.50 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. This week, the decline of phthalic anhydride price slowed down, the demand for o-xylene was weak, and the downward pressure of o-xylene remained.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business agency believe that the crude oil price fluctuated and rose this week, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and rose, and the raw material cost of o-xylene rose; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride fell weakly, the demand for orthobenzene was weak, and the downward pressure of orthobenzene remained. Generally speaking, the cost of orthobenzene is rising, the demand is weak, and the price of orthobenzene is rising. In the future, the driving force for the rise of o-xylene is increasing, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will stabilize strongly in the future.

On May 18, the cost support was strong, the price of nylon filament rose slightly, the downstream customers had poor enthusiasm for taking goods, purchased on demand, the production and sales of nylon filament factory were general, and the inventory was high. All parties hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, the overall market is relatively flat, and the actual transaction price on the floor is negotiated flexibly.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d / 24F)

In terms of price, the price of mainstream nylon filament products increased slightly on May 18. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of May 18, 2022, the quotation of domestic nylon POY (excellent product; 86d / 24F) was 17825 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton from yesterday, with a daily increase of 1.71%; The quotation of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D / 24F) is 20120 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, with a daily increase of 1.00%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40d / 12F) was reported at 21000 yuan / ton, up 175 yuan / ton from yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.84%.

Raw material cost side: raw material caprolactam rose after the festival, and enterprises mainly sold at a high price. According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 13966 yuan / ton on May 9 and 14266 yuan / ton on May 17. It is expected that under the strong trend of raw materials, the price of caprolactam will rise in the short term.

Demand side: the downstream end market demand follows up slowly and purchases on demand, and the purchase volume is limited, resulting in the high inventory of nylon fiber.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, the on-site supply of goods is sufficient. Although the goods are actively shipped, the enthusiasm of taking goods in the downstream terminal market is slightly cautious. Most customers set production by sales and just need to take goods. Business analysts expect that the nylon filament market is difficult to recover in the short term and will remain low. However, with the support of good cost side, the price follows the raw material market.

DOTP prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOTP price fell first, then rose and then stabilized this week, and the overall DOTP market fluctuated and stabilized. As of May 16, the price of DOTP was 12050 yuan / ton, down 0.52% from 12112.50 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week. The pressure on raw materials remained this week, the price of DOTP fell first and then rose, and the market shock of DOTP stabilized.

The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell first and then rose this week. The overall isooctanol market fluctuated and adjusted. As of May 16, the isooctanol price was 12566.67 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from 12666.67 yuan / ton on May 9, and up 1.89% from May 1. After the replenishment, the price of isooctanol fell rapidly this week. From mid May, some isooctanol enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, the supply of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose, and the overall isooctanol market stabilized. The price of isooctanol has stabilized, the cost of DOTP has stabilized, and the driving force of DOTP price rise remains.

PTA prices stopped falling and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price stopped falling and rose this week, and the overall PTA market rebounded and rose. As of May 16, the PTA price was 6835.45 yuan / ton, up 4.39% from the PTA price of 6548.18 yuan / ton on May 9; Compared with the PTA price of 6427.27 yuan / ton on May 1, it increased by 6.38%. The crude oil price was adjusted at a high level. PTA price rose this week, DOTP cost support was large, DOTP had a strong positive momentum, and the downward pressure remained.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high price of crude oil was adjusted, PTA price fluctuated and rose, the replenishment of customers decreased this week, the price of isooctanol fell, the equipment maintenance increased in the middle of the year, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rising, the overall driving force for the rise of DOTP cost remained, and the price of DOTP stopped falling and rebounded. In the future, the prices of raw materials PTA and isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of DOTP raw materials stabilized, the downward pressure of DOTP weakened, and the upward momentum remained. It is expected that the price of DOTP will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly this week, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol increased from 17333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 17433.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.58%. On May 15, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 84.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.91% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (2021-09-22), and up 30.75% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers increased slightly this week: the distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17800 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Zibo de synthetic Feng neopentyl glycol sold at 17000 yuan / ton over the weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The distribution price of Chongqing Kaiyin Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17500 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 15166.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.32%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In mid May, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol in business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated significantly from May 6 to 13. The price of MTBE remained at 7550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7400 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 1.99% during the week, and the price increased by 3.32% month on month and 24.72% year-on-year.

In the first half of this week, because the price rose to a high level, encountered downstream resistance, and the demand weakened. In addition, the prices of other gasoline raw materials were low, MTBE merchants’ sales were blocked and had no choice but to adjust one after another, with a decline of about 200-400 yuan / ton. As the price fell to a low level, the willingness of downstream businesses to replenish on bargain hunting rose. In addition, it coincided with the sharp rise of international oil prices and the rise of gasoline prices. MTBE businesses had strong bullish willingness and followed the rise of prices.

In terms of methanol, macro support may be limited. Basically, the supply may still be abundant, the marginal demand is expected to improve, and the domestic methanol market may be stable in the short term.

Comparison chart of crude oil and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and MTBE price trend of Business Club:

Comparison chart of gasoline and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of diesel and MTBE price trend of business society:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on May 12, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $11.59/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $1198.49-1200.49/t. The closing price of European MTBE market increased by 44 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at 1443.99-1444.49 US dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by US $37.70/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $1612.12-1612.47/ton (454.12-454.22 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1198.49-1200.49 USD / T, USD 11.59/ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1443.99-1444.49 USD / T, USD 44 / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1612.12-1612.47 USD / ton, 37.70 USD / ton

In terms of enterprises, Shandong Chengtai new material 200000 t / a isomerization unit is being shut down, and at present, it mainly sells a small amount of inventory. MTBE offers 7400 yuan / ton. Shi dashenghua’s MTBE quotation is 7400 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance on December 27, and the specific start-up time is to be determined. MTBE will not be shipped temporarily and there is no quotation. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is 7400 yuan / ton. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was 7400 yuan / T.

Enterprise, Device, Price

Chengtai chemical /, 200000 t / a isomerization unit is under maintenance, 7400 yuan / ton

Shi dashenghua, The 200000 t / a isomerization unit started normally, 7400 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical, 400000t / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and CO production 350000t unit started normally, No shipment for the time being

Lihuayi, 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally, 7400 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical, 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit starts normally, 7400 yuan / ton

Driven by the favorable market of crude oil and gasoline, the price rebounded after falling and the transaction improved. In addition, some subsequent refineries have been started one after another, and the market demand still exists. However, due to the general trend of gasoline, the demand for raw materials is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the improvement is limited. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 12, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 11433 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 7, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 11100 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 333 yuan / ton, or 2.39%. Compared with the price on May 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 11300 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 133 yuan / ton, or 1.18%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the domestic propylene glycol market showed a downward trend in the first week of May. At the beginning of this week, the transaction volume of propylene glycol market was light, the downstream demand was limited, and the propylene glycol market continued to decline. On the 10th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol fell to the current low point in May, with the price near 11116 yuan / ton and the low-end price around 10850 yuan / ton. In the middle of the week, on the 11th and 12th, the propylene glycol market finally warmed up. Some propylene glycol factories in Shandong raised the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 200-500 yuan / ton. The increase of propylene glycol foreign trade export gave the operators confidence, the trading atmosphere on the floor improved, the factory inventory pressure decreased, and the transaction focus of propylene glycol increased. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol is around 11300-11600 yuan / ton. At present, the atmosphere in the propylene glycol venue is mild, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is relieved.

The price of propylene oxide temporarily fell by 4.04% compared with that in the upstream market on May 11. At present, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the price of liquid chlorine is rising, the pressure on the cost side remains, most of the devices in the field operate at a slightly low load, and the supply side is reduced, but the demand side is cold, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be stable.

Future trend analysis

At present, the consolidation operation after the rise of the raw material end gives propylene glycol cost support, and the atmosphere in the propylene glycol field has also warmed up. The propylene glycol data division of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly stable, medium and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

After the May Day holiday, the domestic propane market first rose and then declined, with limited fluctuation range, and the price focus of Shandong market moved up slightly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6520.75 yuan / ton on May 1 and 6578.25 yuan / ton on May 7, with an increase of 0.88% and 48.05% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 7, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, May 7th

South China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton

North China, 6500-6650 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6550-6610 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6300-6600 yuan / ton

After the May Day holiday, the domestic propane market developed first and then restrained. The price of Shandong market was mainly sorted out, and the fluctuation range was limited. During the holidays, due to the positive rise of international crude oil, the propane market increased. After the festival, the market was bearish and the price weakened. In May, CP prices were introduced, and both propylene and butane fell sharply, bringing bad news to the domestic market. In addition, the current terminal demand is limited, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited. The supply side is relatively sufficient, which brings some restraint to the market.

Saudi Aramco announced in May 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 850 USD / T, down 90 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 860 US dollars / ton, down 100 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil price has been rising continuously, which has brought some positive support to the cost side. The market prices in the north and South are relatively strong, and most of them are sideways. However, the domestic market supply is relatively sufficient, the demand has not improved significantly, and the market negative factors are more obvious. It is expected that the price of propane market may weaken in the short term.