According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride has been declining recently. As of October 27th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% from 6570 yuan/ton on October 21st.

Supply side: The operating rate of maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the supply has increased; This week, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have declined, and the quotes from distributors have also fallen. The signing of new orders by factories is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. As of October 27th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5800 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The overall international crude oil market has risen this week, with n-butane falling first and then rising. As of October 27th, the price in Shandong is around 5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: This week, the unsaturated resin market remained weak and stable, with insufficient follow-up on downstream demand for unsaturated resin, limited support for unsaturated resin, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and the recent signing of new orders by factories is limited. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly weakly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1604 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%. On October 24th, the baking soda commodity index was 106.00, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.05% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 20.09% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1594 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PET market price is adjusted weakly. As of October 21st, the PET factory’s quotation has been lowered, and its average market price has been adjusted to 6347 yuan per ton.

In terms of cost, the crude oil market has seen a recent decline in crude oil prices. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4912 yuan per ton, a decrease of over 200 yuan per ton compared to October 11th. The weakening of cost support and the increase in PTA supply and demand are the main reasons for the price decline. The short-term PTA spot market is mainly consolidating weakly, with crude oil and raw materials continuing to decline, PET currently lacking cost support, and the focus shifting downwards. Coupled with the stable increase in PET supply and weak downstream buying, the PET market prices continue to operate weakly.

Overall, the market is in a downward trend, and the PET market may experience weak fluctuations in the short term. The actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1923 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market prices have been weak. The upstream soda ash prices of sodium metabisulfite have remained stable, with sulfur prices rising by 3.06% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 0.65%. The sodium metabisulfite market has weak transactions and lacks favorable support. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sales of sodium metabisulfite in the market are mainly based on orders, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8250 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 8241 yuan/ton on September 27, during which the quotation fell by 0.10%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10350 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 10466 yuan/ton on September 29, with a price increase of 0.13% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8112 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 29, with a price increase of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, the price of polyethylene has increased. The release of macro positive policies has boosted market sentiment and boosted the polyethylene market. On the supply side, in terms of petrochemical inventory, according to data statistics, as of September 29th, the plastic two barrel oil inventory was 670000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons from Friday. The month on month increase was 2.29%, and the year-on-year increase was 19.64%. The company’s inventory accumulated, and most traders left before the holiday. There were not many on-site sources of goods, and the main focus was on raising prices. On the demand side, the pre holiday replenishment behavior is gradually slowing down.

The number of maintenance equipment in enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on domestic supply is still high. After the 11th National Day holiday, there may be replenishment activities, and it is expected that polyethylene will have a strong trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has risen significantly in recent days (9.18-9.28). As of September 28th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17063 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.09% from 16237 yuan/ton on September 18th. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials have significantly increased during the cycle; On the other hand, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to decline; In addition, downstream tire manufacturers have provided support for pre holiday stocking of natural rubber, which has led to a significant increase in the price of natural rubber due to cost and supply and demand support.

Recently, the poor weather in the production areas of Thailand and Vietnam has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials; On the one hand, domestic processing plants replenish their inventory before the holiday, and on the other hand, there is a lot of rainfall at the beginning of the week in Hainan, which hinders rubber cutting; The price of natural rubber raw materials has significantly increased. As of September 28th, the price of Thai glue is 76.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 72.50 baht/kg on September 18th; As of September 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 18600 yuan/ton, significantly higher than the price of 16800 yuan/ton on September 18th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 22, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 422500 tons, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the previous period.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has experienced stable but slight fluctuations in production, and downstream stocking demand before the holiday is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to experience strong fluctuations after the holiday.

Aluminum prices fell first and then rose in September

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in September, showing strong performance recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 27, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20326.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.48% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

Aluminum prices are expected in October

Aluminum prices in October may continue their upward trend from September. The reasons are as follows.

1. Domestic macro positive news is released, and policies are boosting the non-ferrous sector. The central bank has proposed further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity, while also creating a shift towards refinancing to guide listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings of stocks. At the real estate level, it is proposed to lower the interest rates of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. The positive expectations brought by domestic policies, coupled with the positive expectations of terminal demand, have driven aluminum prices to remain firm and improve emotionally. Under the guidance of policy direction, market confidence has returned and sentiment is unlikely to subside in the short term. It is expected that the policy will continue to boost positive sentiment in October.

2. Inventory is in a continuous state of destocking, and Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the supply side are nearing the end of resuming production, with high daily output and narrowing upward space; Multiple downstream sectors on the demand side have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories in a state of slight destocking. The expectations for the Golden September and Silver October are good.

Risk point: Import and export may be affected by foreign policy factors, and some of the US 301 tariff policies will take effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

This week (September 16-20), the cost side support was weak, the demand side, and the traditional textile peak season in September did not meet expectations, resulting in a weak decline in the nylon market. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been lowered, and the market trend of nylon PA6 chips is weak, with weak cost support. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, resulting in poor trading activity within the market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not high. There is a lack of positive news to boost the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among industry players.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly this week (September 16-20). As of September 20, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 18360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.76%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 15875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.09%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.38% from last week’s price.

Raw materials remain weak and continue to decline

This week (September 16-20), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, the price of pure benzene fell sharply amidst the sharp drop in crude oil. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing was lowered by 300 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, which had a negative impact on costs. With the introduction of new production capacity, the supply of caprolactam has increased, and market confidence is bearish, resulting in a rapid decline in caprolactam prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.16% from last week.

Supply demand

This week (September 16-20), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. Most of the nylon filament market facilities are operating stably, and currently the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in September did not meet expectations, and demand did not substantially improve. Coupled with weak costs, weaving manufacturers have mostly maintained stable production, and foreign trade brands have gradually issued their essential needs. However, the order volume is still mainly in a small quantity and multiple times mode, and there are still few bulk goods. Lack of market confidence.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8817.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, inventory is sufficient, and the price trend of epoxy propane market is stabilizing.

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has continued to decline. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6760.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is not smooth. Many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and the epoxy propane market has entered a consolidation stage.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in weak rise in epoxy propane prices. Prices tend to stabilize, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11750 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11733/ton, a decrease of 0.14% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have continued to decline this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is mainly dominated by inquiries, with weak transactions and a lack of favorable price support. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction volume of activated carbon market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

August is coming to an end, and the nylon filament market is stabilizing and observing consolidation, with large stability and small movements, and prices slightly rising. The supply and demand of upstream raw material caprolactam are temporarily tight, leading to price increases; There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, as costs continue to rise and demand remains weak, the price of nylon filament remains stable with small fluctuations and a slight upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly increased in August. As of August 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.21%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16300 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.15%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Raw materials remain stable and gradually strengthen

In August, the fundamentals of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market improved, with stable and strengthening cost support. Supply and demand were temporarily tight, and prices rose slightly. On August 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12828.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (12758.33 yuan/ton).

Supply and demand: In August, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. During the month, most of the nylon filament market equipment operated stably, while some manufacturers reduced their equipment load due to increased inventory. At present, the daily production rate of nylon filament market is around 8.4%. Good support from the demand side is difficult to find, the speed of on-site cargo flow has slowed down, trading activity is average, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

In terms of raw material caprolactam, the bottom support for caprolactam prices from the cost side is becoming stronger, and the supply of caprolactam in the market may remain relatively normal. Downstream polymerization factories urgently need to purchase. In September, the traditional peak season for textiles is coming, and the trading atmosphere will improve. It is expected that the caprolactam market will mainly consolidate next month. Therefore, it is expected that the cost side support for nylon filament will remain stable and strong next month.

At present, the overall operating rate of the nylon filament market is relatively high, and the supply on site is relatively sufficient. However, some manufacturers’ shipments are weakening, and their equipment will stabilize in the later stage. Therefore, it is expected that the market supply will remain stable next month.

In September, downstream market demand is expected to improve, with stronger demand for raw materials and better support from the demand side. It is expected that downstream manufacturers of nylon filament will have a stable, moderate, and strong demand for nylon filament in September.

Overall, the cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain relatively stable, while the cost side support for nylon filament is becoming stronger. The weak demand side is expected to change. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market in September will mainly follow the stable and strong operation of raw material consolidation, with market prices expected to rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market continued to decline in August 2024. From August 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 7660 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 9.27% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market continued to decline, and the crude oil market fluctuated widely during the cycle, with insufficient guidance for the market. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions generally decreased, especially in the Shandong region where refinery prices fell widely. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak and operating. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Late of the month: The mixed xylene market is weak and volatile, with prices in Shandong and South China initially rising and then falling. As prices continue to remain low, there is some demand for bargain hunting downstream, resulting in a significant improvement in market trading in these two regions and refinery prices rising. However, due to the overall weak trend of the downstream gasoline blending industry and the lack of demand support, the market continues to have insufficient upward momentum, maintaining a stable and weak trend.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in production, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.58 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been significantly reduced this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of August 30th, East China Company quoted 7000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6850-6950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6950-7050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The prices of raw materials have been continuously falling, and the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined several times in August, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. At the end of August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on August 30th, Sinopec executed a price of 8050 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to July 2024. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $927-929/ton as of August 29th, a cumulative decrease of $65/ton from $993/ton at the end of July.

External market: The Asian xylene external market has experienced a wide downward trend during this period, with FOB South Korea closing price of 812-814 US dollars/ton as of August 29th and September; The closing price of CFR China in September is $836 per ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and cost support will be limited. Partial units in Shandong have resumed supply, and the supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. From the perspective of demand, the downstream market has been operating weakly recently, and the market is maintaining a supply of essential goods. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of negative market factors, the xylene market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 19th to 23rd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9866.67 yuan/ton. This week, cyclohexanone prices tended to stabilize, with a decrease of 233.33 yuan or 2.31% compared to early August. The raw material pure benzene oscillates and runs, with stable cost support. Downstream demand is generally average, and we tend to follow up on demand. Some companies have temporarily reduced their factory low price offers due to not shipping, resulting in a decrease in market low prices.

Cost aspect:

Raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has fluctuated narrowly and risen, and currently geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. Downstream customers enter the market to replenish goods at low prices. As of August 23rd, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8511.33 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current operating load is over 70%. The main production enterprises have limited product supply. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 72.5%, which has decreased compared to last week, with a weekly output of 110000 tons.

On the demand side, the cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the most important downstream of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has fluctuated and risen, with upstream pure benzene prices rebounding. The cost side has stopped falling, which supports downstream confidence. Downstream purchases are made on demand.

3、 Future forecast

The strong consolidation of the raw material pure benzene market is supported by downstream demand procurement of cyclohexanone. Analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly experience volatile operations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% from last week.

Recently, mainstream formic acid companies have carried out equipment maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply sources.

But downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and formic acid prices have not increased due to reduced supply.

On the cost side, the upstream methanol price of formic acid fluctuated upwards, supporting manufacturers to maintain high quotes, and some downstream markets have recovered. Some regional market quotes have been raised, but the overall market demand has not fully recovered, and industry players have shown a clear wait-and-see attitude.

The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market is supported by multiple positive factors, but the negative impact of procurement is dragging down price increases, and it is expected that the formic acid market will fluctuate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 12th to 16th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17233 yuan/ton to 17316 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 0.95%. The domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase during the week, as the supply of MDI decreased due to maintenance by domestic and foreign enterprises, leading to upstream price increases and a slight push up.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected by the incident and was operating at low negative load. It resumed normal operation on the 13th. The 1.1 million ton MDI units of Yantai Wanhua and 80000 ton MDI units of Dongcao Rui’an in China are currently under maintenance.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8534 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market has risen but fallen, with prices decreasing. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10125 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the downstream market is slowly following up and has been in a stalemate recently. The market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with many inquiries and limited actual transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has been slow to follow up, and the overall market has been weak. Short term aggregated MDI demand is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: In the future, factories with maintenance plans and reduced supply expectations may boost the MDI market. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market experienced a slight rebound today (August 13th), with the average spot price of PTA in East China at 5610 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day. A mainstream PTA factory has announced a maintenance plan for its facilities, and in addition, a 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China is scheduled to shut down unexpectedly. Coupled with strong fluctuations in international crude oil prices, this has strengthened cost support and boosted the PTA market. Specifically, let’s take a look:

Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 4.7 million tons are scheduled for maintenance in the Northeast region, with one set of 2.5 million tons PTA plant scheduled for maintenance on August 17th; A 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China was unexpectedly shut down on August 12th, while another 1.2 million ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in September. The planned maintenance and short shutdown of the equipment will have a certain positive impact on the PTA market. At present, the operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 83%, and the supply of PTA has decreased in the short term.

Meanwhile, on August 12th, international crude oil futures rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $80.06 per barrel, an increase of $3.22 or 4.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.30 per barrel, an increase of $2.64 or 3.3%. The geopolitical situation remains tense, with international crude oil experiencing strong fluctuations, which still provides support for PTA costs.

Downstream polyester production has slightly rebounded, but it is still at a low level. In addition, there are rumors in the market that polyester factories may increase production cuts. Since August, with continuous high temperatures and off peak electricity policies, most terminal textile enterprises have maintained low operating rates. Currently, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 60%. The weak demand for domestic and foreign textile products remains, and the progress of autumn and winter orders is slow, which is not as expected. As a result, the operating rate will further decline. If there is no positive stimulus in the short term, the overall demand for PTA will remain weak.

Business analysts believe that the upstream cost side still provides support for PTA costs, but downstream polyester procurement is sluggish, and the willingness to stock up on raw materials is not high. It is expected that PTA prices will not have enough momentum to continue rising.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 805 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.05%. On August 11th, the chemical index was 868 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 750-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 840-940 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2350-2550 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. At present, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and coupled with the weakened export market, the operating mentality of industry players has weakened, so they are more cautious and cautious.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 32nd week of 2024 (8.5-8.9), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.13%), PVC (-0.44%), and caustic soda flakes (-0.10%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.28%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda will remain stable. In the early stage of the Shandong market, there are plans to postpone the construction of new facilities in Zibo. It is expected that the supply of caustic soda will be stable, and downstream customers will be cautious and wait. The overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain a stable operation of caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in July 2024. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic toluene market price fell from 7540 yuan/ton to 7390 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.99% during the period and a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market saw a slight increase, mainly driven by the good performance of gasoline blending. During this period, the trend of cost oil prices fluctuated slightly, but downstream gasoline blending enterprises actively entered the market, with good transaction performance and low inventory levels in the factory. The export performance is also good, with a significant decline in incoming goods from the East China region and tight port supply. Driven by favorable supply and demand, the market atmosphere has improved, and the toluene market has slightly risen.

Late of the month: The overall toluene market is weak, with market prices fluctuating downwards. Supply remains tight this week, and refinery inventories are generally running at a low level. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing intention is low, and the intention to receive goods is insufficient, which has a certain drag on market sentiment. The focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined during the week, and downstream companies maintained their demand for replenishment, lacking support from the demand side. The toluene market cautiously retreated, and the overall market atmosphere was weak

On the cost side: In July 2024, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall wide decline. As of July 29, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.81 per barrel, a monthly decline of 6.85%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.05 per barrel, a monthly decrease of 6.83%. The crude oil analyst of Shengyi Society believes that on the one hand, the easing of the geopolitical situation is bearish on the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, OPEC+’s production reduction stance is firm, and the traditional peak season in the United States still holds positive news. Under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered multiple times during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude of each underground adjustment. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7450-7500 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7400 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 31st, Sinopec announced the settlement price for xylene in July 2024, which was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the settlement price in June 2024 and a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the listing price in July. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of July 30th, the closing price of CFR China was $993/ton, which was $1044/ton at the beginning of the month and a cumulative decrease of $51/ton.

During this cycle, the price of toluene in Asia’s foreign markets fluctuated, with the FOB South Korean closing price of 851-853 US dollars/ton as of July 30th, and an increase of 7 US dollars/ton during the cycle; The closing price of CFR China in August is 884-886 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 46 US dollars per ton during the period.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, and the support on the cost side is weak. The maintenance of the toluene unit in terms of supply is gradually coming to an end, and the market expects that supply will resume in the future. In terms of demand, as August approaches, the market expects inventory demand to gradually recover with the “Golden September and Silver October” and future holidays. The toluene market will also enter a period of active trading, which still provides some support for market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of equipment resumption on market supply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market showed an M-shaped trend in July 2024, with an average price of 19435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 19445 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.05%.

On July 28th, the lead commodity index was 118.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.48% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) during the cycle, and up 58.94% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

On July 28th, the basic metal index was 1273 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 98.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. In 2024, the prices of lead ingots mostly rose, with a decrease of 1.77% in February and an increase of over 2.8% in all other months. Looking at the weekly K-bar chart, the market has seen more gains and less losses recently.

Macroscopically, the People’s Bank of China conducted its second MLF operation this month, cutting interest rates by 20 basis points beyond expectations. Analysis suggests that the increase in MLF operations this time has released a signal of easing, meeting the medium and long-term funding needs of financial institutions. The US GDP in the second quarter exceeded expectations, with a month on month growth of 2.8%. The core PCE price index fell to 2.9% month on month, still higher than expected. The implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations in August is expected to result in an increase in tax costs.

According to customs data, the import volume of refined lead (unprocessed refined lead) in China in June 2024 was 524.961 tons, an increase of 235.65% month on month and 199.77% year-on-year. In June 2024, the import volume of lead ingots in China was 7200.12 tons, a decrease of 1.73% compared to the previous month and an increase of 23.44% year-on-year.

The overall lead ingot market in July showed an M-shaped pattern, with a bearish atmosphere in the non-ferrous sector and other bulk commodities. Some original lead delivery brand enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and some enterprises have already pre sold most of their production in August, resulting in low sellable inventory. Refining lead enterprises in Anhui and other regions are gradually resuming production, and with the arrival of imported lead for replenishment, the degree of subsidy for recycled lead has expanded. Since the opening of the import window, the actual import arrivals have been limited, and the channel for converting imported goods into delivery products has not yet been opened in large quantities. The short-term shortage reality and the expectation of surplus in the hospital month. It is expected that the lead ingot market will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in June 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.507 million and 2.554 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and 2.7%, respectively. From January to June 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 1.389 million and 14.047 million respectively, an increase of 4.9% and 6.1% year-on-year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in June 2024 was 639000 tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year. From January to June 2024, China’s lead production was 3.889 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%

International Lead Zinc Research Group ILZSG News: In April 2024, the global lead market experienced a supply shortage of 22600 tons, followed by a shortage of 3400 tons in March. From January to April 2024, there was an oversupply of 7000 tons in the global lead market, compared to a shortage of 7800 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global lead ore production was 365100 tons in May 2024. From January to May 2024, the global lead ore production was 1.8111 million tons. In May 2024, the global refined lead production was 1.1079 million tons, with a consumption of 1.0939 million tons and an oversupply of 14000 tons. From January to May 2024, the global refined lead production was 5.5297 million tons, with a consumption of 5.4181 million tons and a surplus supply of 111600 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9521.67 yuan/ton on July 12th and 9475.00 yuan/ton on July 19th, an increase of 0.49%. The current price has increased by 19.81% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly decreased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, and the recent market trend has slightly declined. International oil prices have fluctuated, with a significant decline in the pure benzene market and poor cost support, while the styrene market has risen to a relatively high level. Spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand, and downstream resistance to high price levels is slightly evident, resulting in a slight decline in the styrene market. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is 9510-9550 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect

Recently, the overall trend of pure benzene has continued to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu Province continues to rise, with a total inventory of 44000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons or 46.67% compared to the previous period’s inventory of 30000 tons. The downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene has increased, and it is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. As of July 19th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8500 yuan/ton. At present, the downward trend of pure benzene market has slightly stopped, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will mainly decline slightly in late July.

Supply side

In July, there were many inspections of the styrene plant, and the overall production of styrene plants in China was 297000 tons, an increase of 2600 tons from the previous period’s 294400 tons. Styrene inventory has slightly increased, with limited negative impact.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream producers of styrene have experienced mixed fluctuations. Among them, the EPS market is stable, with large fluctuations in manufacturer quotes and poor downstream demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions are average. In early July, domestic ABS prices showed a narrow upward trend. The main terminal demand for ABS is weak. Some home appliance manufacturers are on vacation and have stopped work, resulting in lower overall load levels for downstream factories and weak stocking operations that prioritize basic needs. Last week, traders were forced to sell at high prices under the cover of producers. Currently, the market momentum has returned to calm, and the speed of supply flow has decreased. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market. The PS market fluctuated and fell. Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 reported 10400 yuan/ton, PH88 reported 10700 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P reported 9750 yuan/ton, 622P reported 10550 yuan/ton

The styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current pure benzene market continues to decline, with weak cost support and weak spot demand for styrene, resulting in poor market transactions. Shengyi Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly experience a slight decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade increased in early July, with an average price of 7230 yuan/ton as of July 12th.

Raw material market: On July 11th, there was no significant bullish or bearish driving force for cost and self supply and demand, and PTA spot prices tended to fluctuate. On the afternoon of July 11th, MEG futures fluctuated, with a basis difference of 35-40 compared to the 09 contract. This week’s trading was close to 4810 and the delivery was around 4805.

The recent decline in international oil prices has dragged down the prices of polyester dual raw materials. Due to insufficient cost support and low industry processing fees, major polyester bottle chip manufacturers have started to raise prices and reduce production to ensure processing fees. As a result, market prices have risen and processing fees have relatively recovered.

The current factory price for PET water bottle grade is hovering between 7250 yuan and 7450 yuan. For the goods to be delivered from July to August, the ex factory price negotiated by the buyer and seller ranges from 7100 yuan to 7200 yuan. The export quotation for polyester bottle flakes is also stable, with an initial quotation of $920 to $940 per ton FOB China main port for goods shipped from July to August. However, in actual negotiations, the price has fallen back to the range of $910 to $930 per ton FOB China main port.

Business Society PET analyst believes that the PET market is expected to maintain its current trend in the short term.

monitoring data from Business Society, the market offer on June 21st was 8320 yuan/ton, and on June 27th it was 8270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%.

The price of phenol in East China of Sinopec is 8350 yuan/ton, while the price of phenol in North China of Sinopec is 8300-8350 yuan/ton. The factory prices are firm, and the operating rate of the phenol ketone unit has not fluctuated much, maintaining around 70%.

In terms of supply, the total quantity of phenol arriving at the port in East China is 42000 tons. Please pay attention to the subsequent shipment situation.

Downstream bisphenol A is operating steadily, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China ranging from 9850 to 10000 yuan/ton. Overall, market trading is limited. The cost side pure benzene market is operating steadily, with a reference price of 9367 yuan/ton. Some companies in Shandong Refining adhere to the price, and the transaction situation is not volatile.

From the perspective of the Business Society, the parking and maintenance plans for Qingdao Bay and Shanghai Xisa Storage need to be monitored, and after the phenol export is released at the end of the month, the import volume needs to be supplemented. There is not much pressure on the market supply side, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping in early July is not high. From the terminal perspective, there is still strong demand, and there is not much change in demand. It is expected that the market range will adjust and operate next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On June 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 7th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% from last week and 42.76% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously)

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rebounded, and spot pure benzene fluctuated around 9280 yuan/ton in the night trading. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will consolidate at a high level in the morning.

4、 Data calendar

Crude oil: The European Central Bank has lowered interest rates for the first time in five years, and the pressure on high interest rates has eased. Coupled with the increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, international oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 rose by $1.48/barrel or 2.00% to 75.55; ICE oil futures contract 08 rose $1.46 per barrel, or 1.86%, at 79.87. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2407, rose 4.0 to 574 yuan/barrel, and rose 10.9 to 584.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the atmosphere of pure benzene negotiations in East China was flat, with contract transactions being the main focus. Some refineries in Shandong have voluntarily lowered their shipments, while some refineries are sticking to bottom prices to sell their goods. Several factories auctioned off, and the transaction volume continued to shrink.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash increased in May. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2030 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2170 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.9%, an increase of 2.36% compared to the same period last year. On May 30th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 110.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 41.42% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and an increase of 75.41% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall price of soda ash has been relatively strong this month. The price of soda ash in the central China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2000-2200 yuan/ton for light soda ash. The price of soda ash in the eastern China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2150-2300 yuan/ton for light soda ash. The data shows that the operating rate of soda ash during the week was around 82%. In terms of inventory, this week’s pure alkali inventory is about 810000 tons, and the production of pure alkali is about 680000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass has been rising this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 18.65 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 19.86 yuan/square meter. The price increased within the month, with a magnitude of 6.49%. The spot prices in the glass market fluctuate. The main focus is on replenishing inventory in case of urgent needs, with a strong resistance to high prices.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (1.91%), PVC (1.28%), and caustic soda (0.25%); The main commodities falling are baking soda (-0.84%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.37%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of light soda ash has been relatively strong recently, and the production of soda ash enterprises has decreased. In terms of downstream demand, with the recent increase in prices, more purchases have been made on demand, with moderate replenishment of inventory. However, there has not been much pressure on enterprises to ship goods in the near future. Based on the comprehensive analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that soda ash will continue to operate steadily in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the carbon black market price continued to fluctuate and decline this month, with a price drop of 500-600 yuan/ton at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was at 9166 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of high-temperature coal tar market has declined this month. As of the 31st, the price of coal tar was 4425 yuan/ton. Recently, the profitability of coking enterprises has been decent, and their enthusiasm for starting production has significantly increased. This has greatly boosted the production momentum of coking enterprises, leading to a significant increase in the market supply of coal tar. The downstream main product coal tar market has a long-term oversupply, and the market situation is weak and difficult to improve, which brings a strong negative atmosphere to the high-temperature coal tar raw material market. This market atmosphere has formed a strong pressure on raw material prices, and it is expected that terminal demand will be weak and difficult to improve in the short term. The overall trend of coal tar prices is weak, and the support for carbon black cost is weak.

Production situation: The supply of carbon black in the market is relatively sufficient this month, and most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable production. Some shutdown and maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has increased.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire industry is currently in a seasonal off-season, with weak demand in both domestic and international tire replacement markets. The export volume of foreign trade is also showing a trend of reduction, leading to serious inventory accumulation in the market. The sales performance of the downstream rubber product industry is lackluster, with a significant decrease in demand for raw materials and procurement enthusiasm. Affected by this, the shipment volume of carbon black enterprises has become sluggish, and the momentum of price increase is clearly lacking in momentum.

In terms of import and export: According to customs data, China imported 31800 tons of carbon black in April 2024, an increase of 50.79% year-on-year and 11.9% month on month; From January to April 2024, China’s cumulative imports of carbon black reached 108600 tons, an increase of 36.72% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 29000 tons. In April 2024, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 57600 tons, an increase of 15.67% year-on-year and a decrease of 31.87% month on month. From January to April 2024, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 312200 tons, an increase of 62.11% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 120000 tons.

Future outlook: The market price of high-temperature coal tar is weak, and the support for the cost side of carbon black is relatively limited; At the same time, the downstream tire and rubber product industry’s shipment volume remains stable but growth is weak, leading to a weakened willingness to purchase high priced carbon black, and often holding a price pressure attitude when inquiring. At present, there is no clear positive signal on the demand side, and the carbon black market is expected to continue to maintain the current weak operating trend.

In May, the dichloromethane market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2395 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% from 2310 yuan/ton in early May, and a decrease of 4.58% from the high point of 2510 yuan/ton in the cycle. In May, the production of domestic methane chloride plants slightly increased, and some enterprises had a slight increase in dichloromethane inventory at the end of the month; In May, the methanol market for dichloromethane raw materials fluctuated and rose, and the price range of liquid chlorine reorganized, continuing to support the cost of dichloromethane; The downstream refrigerant of dichloromethane started operating at a low level, and the dichloromethane terminal just needed support. At the end of May, the dichloromethane market slightly declined.

In May, the production of domestic methane chloride plants increased, and in the second half of the month, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane increased. The production of plants gradually increased from 7.1% in early May to around 7.9% by the end of the month.

In May, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price range of liquid chlorine stabilized. The cost of dichloromethane continued to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2761 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the beginning of the month’s 2651 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 8.55% from the high point of 3020 yuan/ton in the cycle; At the end of May, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 500 yuan/ton, a significant increase from 300 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and remained unchanged from 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Downstream R 32 production has remained stable, with terminals receiving goods on demand. At the beginning of the month, merchants actively stocked up, but later on, as dichloromethane rose to a high level and the supply side relaxed again, merchants were mainly wait-and-see in the later stage. Currently, downstream demand for dichloromethane is mainly supported, and the market atmosphere is flat.

Market forecast: Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that some companies still face pressure on inventory, and terminal inquiries are cautious; The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to support the cost of dichloromethane, and overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate in the later period.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3983 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.81% compared to the beginning of the month.

Upstream aspect

Recently, northern mines have continued to suspend and reduce production, and there is no expectation of large-scale resumption of production, which has led to a tight supply of mines and affected the operating rate of alumina. As of the beginning of this month, the slow improvement of bauxite supply capacity and the impact of routine equipment maintenance have resulted in no further increase in alumina production capacity. At present, the insufficient supply capacity of bauxite and equipment maintenance are still the main factors restricting the increase in production of alumina enterprises in the southern region.

Affected by the news that Rio Tinto Group has announced that its Australian Yarwun smelters and Queensland Alumina Limited have experienced force majeure in their alumina shipments, with prices skyrocketing due to shortages in natural gas inventory/supply for power generation. Due to uncontrollable factors such as insufficient natural gas supply and overall shortage of overseas alumina spot, the execution of some contracts between the two alumina plants has been hindered in the short term. Domestic alumina prices are strong.

Downstream aspect

As of now, the entire domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has basically reached its peak operating level, and there is basically no growth space above. The long-term interference factors may be the phased reduction and shutdown of aluminum production capacity in Yunnan region due to the alternation of abundant and dry seasons.

The inventory of aluminum oxide in electrolytic aluminum enterprises continues to decline, especially for some individual electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Although spot orders and long orders have recovered, the inventory of aluminum oxide remains at the low level in previous years.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the supply of domestically produced ore in the upstream continues to be tight, and the force majeure factors of foreign alumina giants have affected the supply of imported alumina, all of which are the reasons for the increase in alumina prices this month. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate at a high level.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the BOPP market fell first and then rose this month. As of May 30th, the price of 18 μ BOPP film was around 9816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.9% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared at the end of this month, at 9816.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared at the beginning of the month, at a price of about 9633.33 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7964.29 yuan/ton, which is about 1.55% higher than the price level at the beginning of the month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The highest point of the price appeared in the latter half of the year, at 7964.29 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the middle of the first half, at a price of about 7712.50 yuan/ton. The cost side fluctuates and rises, while crude oil prices fluctuate, providing strong support for BOPP prices.

In terms of supply: After the holiday, the maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted, and the supply is gradually increasing, with sufficient supply on the supply side.

In terms of demand: fluctuations in crude oil prices, downstream products stocking up ahead of price increases, increased willingness to purchase, improved trading atmosphere, and stronger support on the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

The cost side of BOPP fluctuates and rises, and the market trading atmosphere improves. Then, overall demand is weak, and it is expected that BOPP prices will rise slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 1.20%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 6816 yuan/ton on May 29th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 1.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has dropped this month. In the first half of May, the price of phosphoric acid showed a weak decline. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has followed the trend of raw materials downward. Downstream rigid procurement, with a resistance to high prices. The demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market is stable, and the market is steadily consolidating. In the second half of May, the price of phosphoric acid slightly decreased after an increase. The high prices of raw materials have been consolidated, with support from the cost side. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with limited new orders in the market. As of May 29th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6300-7200 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. In May, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, with a downward focus on the market. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by price pressures, and many manufacturers did not provide external quotations, with negotiations being the main focus. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good in the middle of the month. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, and the inventory is controllable. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. In the latter half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, with a stalemate between upstream and downstream operations. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-22900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The phosphate ore market slightly improved in May. The price increase within the month is 0.58%. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand sides provide stable market support. In the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate in a stable, medium, and strong manner. As of May 29th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the phosphoric acid market has been steadily consolidating and operating recently. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant and consolidating, with average cost support. There is insufficient trading in the hot process phosphoric acid market, and there is still support for the demand side of wet process phosphoric acid. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market price of benzoic acid first rose and then fell in May. As of May 28th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9316 yuan/ton, an increase from 9100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall increase of 2.38%.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has risen after a decline this month. On May 27th, the price of mixed xylene was 7660 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the beginning of the month. The concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market in early May has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market. In the latter half of the year, international crude oil fluctuated upwards, mixed xylene port inventories decreased, supply decreased, and the market rose.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid rose first and then fell this month. On May 28th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the supply and demand of acetic acid were strong, inventory continued to decline, and prices remained strong, with a mid month increase of 4.49%. However, as downstream acetic acid companies resisted high prices, the market price of acetic acid gradually fell in the second half of the month.

In terms of demand

Downstream polyester shipments are slow, and inventory continues to operate at high levels to alleviate recent inventory pressure. Factories have concentrated production cuts, indicating a strong intention to support the market. Therefore, it is necessary to replenish raw materials appropriately and continue to stock up on demand. There is a possibility of a certain downward trend in the trading center on the market.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the cost support for isophthalic acid is limited, there is no significant fluctuation in the fundamentals, the purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and the overall market atmosphere is relatively light. It is expected that the market price of isophthalic acid will remain relatively stable.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the BOPP market prices rose last week. As of May 27th, the mainstream quoted price for 18 μ m BOPP film by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 9783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.56% from last week’s average price and about 1.56% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP increased first and then decreased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7907.14 yuan/ton, which is 0.82% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP first rises and then falls, providing some support for the cost side of BOPP prices.

In terms of supply: the operating load rate of membrane enterprises increased slightly, the supply side increased, and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mostly restock for urgent needs, with weak willingness to restock, cautious procurement, weak transaction volume, and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall price of upstream raw materials has fluctuated upwards, and the cost side has increased support for the market. However, downstream demand enterprises are cautious in procurement, mainly restocking, and transactions are weak. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6925.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The acrylic acid market is mainly stable this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, with limited cost support. The utilization rate of production capacity in the supply side industry has slightly improved, and downstream procurement is cautious. Just in need, the follow-up is average, and factories tend to maintain a stable trend, with some offering discounts and receiving orders. Dealer quotations are mainly negotiated with the company.

Cost side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on May 23 was 6726.60, a decrease of 1.09% compared to May 1 (6800.60). The recent fluctuations in raw material propylene prices have had little impact on the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current supply side inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the short-term cost impact may still be limited. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 23, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has increased this week. On May 23rd, the price of pure benzene was 8833 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from last week. The domestic supply of pure benzene has decreased, driven by the styrene market, downstream transactions have been more active, and port destocking has accelerated. Short term spot shortages are difficult to change.

Nitric acid: Domestic nitric acid prices have decreased this week. On May 23, the price of nitric acid was 1866 yuan/ton, and on May 16, it was 1913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% from last week. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly sells orders, and the market transaction situation is poor

Recently, the textile market has entered a traditional off-season, and foreign trade orders have also declined. The demand for dyes is not optimistic. The downstream epoxy resin market is in urgent need of follow-up, with limited trading volume. It is expected that the market for meta phenylenediamine will operate steadily with a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic furfural (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market fluctuated and declined this week. On May 11th, the average quoted price of furfural was 9575.00 yuan/ton (including tax), and on May 17th, it was 9425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57%.

Cost side: Currently, the main production of furfural in China is corn cobs, and sulfuric acid is generally used as the catalyst. The domestic sulfuric acid market prices have fallen this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 247 yuan/ton on May 13th, and 242 yuan/ton on May 17th, a decrease of 1.98%. The short-term sulfuric acid market is mainly sluggish, mainly due to insufficient demand and difficulty in digesting products. In the later stage, it depends on the production situation of terminal fertilizer enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic furfuryl alcohol (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market has declined this week. On May 11th, the average quoted price of furfuryl alcohol was 10175.00 yuan/ton (including tax), while on May 17th, it was 10150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25%.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Furfural Products, the upstream sulfuric acid market for furfural continues to decline, while the downstream furfural alcohol market fluctuates slightly. Furfural supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected that furfural may experience a weak decline in the near future.

This week (5.12-5.17), the price of monoethanolamine slightly decreased, with a range of 20 yuan/ton. According to statistics from Business Society, as of May 17th, the mainstream market price of monoethanolamine (with a domestic content of 99.9%) was between 10300-10600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week.

In terms of cost:

This week, the price of ethylene oxide has slightly decreased, at a rate of 100 yuan/ton. According to data from Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% from last week’s average price of 7000 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6900 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6900 yuan/ton.

From the industrial chain diagram, ethanolamine, as a downstream product of ethylene oxide, accounts for 11%. Recently, the production enterprises of ethanolamine have been stable, with moderate profit levels and no significant fluctuations. Due to its wide range of uses, monoethanolamine has been applied in various fields such as textiles, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, etc. Therefore, its market demand is relatively stable and there has been no significant growth point.

On May 15th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.06%. The main reason is that some equipment in the northern main production area has been repaired due to malfunctions, and the contraction of the supply surface has brought benefits. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation, and dealer quotes have followed suit.

Overall

The market for monoethanolamine has remained stable with a slight decline, while the market price for raw material ethylene oxide has stabilized after a decline. Although the liquid ammonia market has seen a slight upward trend, its increase is not enough to support a significant rebound in monoethanolamine prices. The demand for monoethanolamine in the market varies, with downstream users mainly purchasing on demand, and some market prices have been lowered. Further observation of downstream demand for monoethanolamine is needed for subsequent price changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from May 13th to 17th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11537 yuan/ton to 11262 yuan/ton, with a 2.38% decrease in price during the cycle, a 3.74% month on month decrease, and a 40.45% year-on-year increase. Some production enterprises in certain regions have increased their exports, while merchants have clear expectations for domestic production growth in the later period. The downward trend in the market has intensified the cautious attitude of downstream inquiries, resulting in a weak transaction atmosphere and further affecting the downward pressure on supplier prices.

Cost side: In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have overall declined, and Federal Reserve officials have hinted that interest rate cuts will not come soon. The market is concerned that high interest rates will continue to pressure the economy and demand, and the International Energy Agency has lowered its global demand growth forecast. As of May 16th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.27 per barrel.

In terms of naphtha, the market for naphtha continues to decline, and international oil prices are weak, exacerbating market bearish sentiment and weakening cost support. There has been no actual improvement in the demand for terminal ethylene cracking, and it is still in a stagnant state. As of May 17th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene twice to 11400 yuan/ton. The maintenance device has been restarted, and there is a production plan for the new production capacity, resulting in an increase in output. The supply of butadiene is affected by negative factors..

On the demand side, although there are signs of a downward shift in industrial chain profits, downstream industries have not seen a significant improvement in production. Coupled with expectations for future supply growth, market fundamentals are mainly bearish, dragging the market down continuously. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on May 16th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1375-1385 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1385-1395 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1155-1165 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # and Fujian United and other facilities have plans to restart in the next cycle. Domestic production is expected to increase, and although the profit of the industrial chain has shifted downwards, downstream industry construction has not improved significantly. Coupled with weak performance in the external market, there is little positive support in the market. Business Society Butadiene Analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of May 16th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43500 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42166.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with upstream prices of iron phosphate remaining stable and limited growth in lithium carbonate. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average, and downstream demand is poor. Currently, the supply and demand balance in the lithium iron phosphate market is mainly dominant.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: After the May Day holiday, the upstream lithium carbonate price has remained stable with a strong trend, inventory has remained high, downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, and the upstream iron phosphate price will remain stable with a small range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the current price trend will remain the main trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, the current market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices lack upward momentum, and lithium iron phosphate lacks upward momentum. It is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term, with the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate remaining around 43500 yuan/ton and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate remaining around 42200 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.1-5.11), the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from 2770 yuan/ton on the 1st. The high prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to support the cost of trichloromethane. Downstream production remains low, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The market for trichloromethane has slightly declined.

Recently (5.1-5.11), domestic methane chloride production has slightly increased.

Recently (5.1-5.11), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have been running at high levels, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2684 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% from 2651 yuan/ton on the first day. As of May 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 500 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 400 yuan/ton at the end of April.

Recently (5.1-5.11), downstream refrigerant R22 has been operating at a low level, providing weak support for the demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with limited support for demand for trichloromethane. As the downstream peak season gradually ends, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (5.1-5.11). On May 11th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08% from 7680 yuan/ton on the first day.

International crude oil weak volatility, mixed xylene cost support weakened

Recently (5.1-5.11), the concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of May 10th, WTI06 contract settlement is $79.26/barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $83.88 per barrel. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $951 to $952 per ton as of May 10th.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the pressure on port supply has slightly eased. It is understood that as of May 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 55000 tons, significantly lower than the end of April.

Starting production of xylene and increasing the required support for mixed xylene recovery

Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment has gradually restarted operation, and the domestic PX production has significantly rebounded. As of May 10th, PX production has increased to around 790%. However, in the later stage, domestic PX units such as Weilian Chemical and Ningbo Daxie are planned to be shut down for maintenance. In addition, the 400000 ton unit of SK Line 2 in South Korea is planned to be repaired for one and a half months, making it difficult to significantly improve PX production in the later stage, and the support for mixed xylene is limited. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 10th, the closing price in the Asian region is 987-989 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1012-1014 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is operating steadily, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is operating steadily, while Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has slightly decreased, and the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has remained low. As a result, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of May 10th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%. There is some support for the improvement of mixed xylene, but the later improvement support is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that in the short term, international crude oil will experience weak consolidation, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The increase in downstream PX production has certain support for mixed xylene,But the support for later improvement is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of pure benzene was 8758 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% compared to last week. The transaction of pure benzene is still acceptable, and there is sufficient supply on the market.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of nitric acid was 1876 yuan/ton, and on May 2nd, it was 1856 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to last week. At present, the market atmosphere is active, and downstream demand continues to improve.

M-phenylenediamine: The price of m-phenylenediamine in China has increased this week. On May 9th, the price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.73% compared to last week. The demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products in downstream markets has improved.

The trading volume of resorcinol in the market this week was very low. The cost support is strengthening, and the downstream resin tire industry lacks information guidance, leading to a recovery in the dye and pesticide intermediate markets. It is expected that the market situation for resorcinol will be relatively strong.

Recent trends in urea prices

This month, the domestic urea market has experienced ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, the urea market continued the inertia downward trend of the previous month. Subsequently, due to supply tightening and an increase in factory orders, urea prices continued to rise, and the upward trend continued until mid month. In the latter half of the month, the market fell in a bearish atmosphere of the Indian market. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong Province increased from 2415 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2435 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a growth rate of 0.86%.

From the supply side, the average operating rate of urea enterprises this month is around 80%, and the daily production of urea in China is about 180000 tons, with supply slightly tightening compared to the previous month. Within the month, the factory prices of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong rebounded after falling, and the overall change was not significant, with the fluctuation controlled within 100 yuan/ton.

From the upstream market perspective:

Liquefied natural gas: In April, the liquefied natural gas market showed a strong upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4114 yuan/ton, which is 3870 yuan/ton compared to the average price on April 1st. The increase in domestic liquefied natural gas prices this month was 6.30%. High natural gas prices provide support for downstream urea production.

Coal: Coal has been operating weakly this month. Taking thermal coal as an example, prices fell in April, with a decrease of 2.54%. Overall, normal production and sales are maintained, and the market is operating weakly. The implementation of long-term cooperative shipping is still the main focus, and the overall supply level of coal has slightly decreased. Traders tend to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude due to their average willingness to ship due to their uncertainty about the future market. The negative performance of upstream coal has alleviated certain cost pressures for downstream coal urea enterprises.

Liquid ammonia: In April, the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly volatile and fell, emerging from a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline of 2.93% in April. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2800-3000 yuan/ton. In the future, the tight supply pattern in the northern main production areas may continue for a period of time, and ammonia prices will be supported on the supply side. On the demand side, the replenishment in the early stage is gradually ending, agricultural demand is gradually falling, industrial demand remains in demand, and may form constraints on ammonia prices in the future. The supply-demand game will intensify in the future, with narrow price fluctuations, and the impact on urea prices will be relatively small in the future.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Spring plowing is gradually coming to an end, with sporadic fertilization as the main focus. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises have started production at a low level, and the industry lacks confidence in trading and investment, with a focus on essential procurement. The market price of melamine fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% compared to the price on April 1st.

Looking at the future: urea analysts from Business Society believe that in May, it is expected that the urea market in Shandong will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern. Although upstream raw material support for urea is strong, downstream agricultural demand may slow down due to seasonal weakening of procurement, with industrial demand being the main focus, especially exports being affected by insufficient Indian procurement, and prices may loosen.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of tetrahydrofuran in China slightly declined in April. At the end of the month, the price of tetrahydrofuran remained at 13333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the initial price of 13500 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 3.13%.

Supply side: In April, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors slightly decreased, with average inventory levels and average on-site sales.

Cost side: The maleic anhydride factory mainly executes preliminary orders, and the overall market trading is average, with a slight increase in the market in April. Downstream digestion of early orders is the main focus, with a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. New orders are limited, and procurement increases at the end of the month, leading to an upward trend in the market. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 1,4-butanediol has declined, with rigid demand contracts trading and light spot trading. The price of 1,4-butanediol has dropped from 9328.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9071.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.76%. The domestic BDO market is weak and downward, with light spot trading; The pressure on on-site inventory is still present and entering a new cycle, causing pressure on holding manufacturers to ship goods. Negotiations for discounts on actual orders have led to a weak market focus and a downward trend. The upstream raw material market prices have fallen, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected, resulting in a slight decrease in tetrahydrofuran prices.

On the demand side: In April, the price trend of spandex in the market declined. At the end of the month, the price of spandex was 29875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the initial price of 30375 yuan/ton. In recent years, the concentration of the domestic spandex industry has been continuously increasing, and the industry’s leading effect is obvious. The expansion of production capacity has significantly overlapped with the average performance of downstream terminal textile demand in recent years. The downstream spandex market is weak and declining, and downstream customers are less actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran, resulting in a slight decline in the tetrahydrofuran market.

Looking at the future: In the short term, the BDO market is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that the short-term domestic tetrahydrofuran market is not supported by favorable conditions, and it is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in the future.

The market for butadiene rubber slightly declined in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% from 13610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the market price of butadiene remained high, while the cost center of butadiene rubber remained high; The overall load of butadiene rubber is not high, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not high; Downstream tire production has slightly declined from a high level, and demand has weakened in the face of rigid demand support for butadiene rubber. In addition, downstream resistance to high priced sources has led to a high level decline in butadiene rubber production. As of April 30th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber market in East China is 13200-13400 yuan/ton.

In the first half of April, the domestic production of butadiene rubber slightly increased; In the second half of April, the domestic production of butadiene rubber slightly decreased, and as of the end of April, the production of butadiene rubber plants was around 55%.

In April, the price of butadiene remained high, and there is still strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 11525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly weakened, weakening support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of the end of April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region increased from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 7.1% in the middle of the month, and then continued to decline to 6.4% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is still strong; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and there are also plans for later maintenance and restart, resulting in variables in the supply of butadiene rubber; At present, downstream tire enterprises have experienced slight fluctuations in production, with the main support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market may narrow down in the later stage under the support of cost and low production.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has remained stable recently (4.22-4.30). As of April 30th, the average market price in Henan region was 7550 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to the average price of 7550 yuan/ton on April 22nd. The price remains unchanged throughout the cycle.

Recently, the ice crystal market has been operating on a wait-and-see basis, and enterprise ice crystal quotations have remained stable. The overall resumption of work and production in the upstream fluorite market is progressing slowly, with strong consolidation of fluorite prices and tight supply of raw materials, resulting in strong pressure on the cost of cryolite. However, due to the obvious resistance of the downstream towards high priced cryolite and the limited trading atmosphere in the market, the downstream market is mostly bearish. Therefore, with strong raw material prices, most cryolite manufacturers still offer stable prices. As of April 30th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is relatively strong and rising, with an average market price of 3675.00 yuan/ton as of April 30, an increase of 1.03% compared to the price of 3637.50 yuan/ton on April 22. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with tension in upstream mining and the continuous elimination of outdated mines. In terms of new mines, the progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of goods on site is tight, resulting in a continuous increase in fluorite prices.

Market forecast: The upstream market of cryolite is relatively strong, with high cost pressure on cryolite and a positive impact on mentality. Downstream demand is average and there is resistance to cryolite prices. Actual market trading is limited, but facing the continuous rise in upstream prices, cryolite enterprises may face pressure to increase their prices,

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has continued to be weak, with month end spot prices hovering horizontally. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of EVA in China is 11333.33 yuan/ton.

Cause analysis

The weakness of the domestic EVA market continues, and on the supply side, the load on domestic EVA enterprises is around 70%. At the end of the month, there was still news of a reduction in negative prices for petrochemical plants, leading to a decline in market supply and a decrease in some auction sources. The pricing of manufacturers remains stable, and overall, the support from EVA suppliers for spot goods is average.

From the demand side perspective, recent EVA terminal enterprises have seen significant stability and small fluctuations in production, and their stocking situation remains unchanged in terms of purchasing and consumption logic. There was no significant increase in stocking before the holiday. Enterprises such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires have maintained weak sales, with few new orders added. At the end of the month, the number of operations for merchants to complete the task of selling orders has increased. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have continued to be weak in recent days, and the buying and selling parties are in a wait-and-see atmosphere at the end of the month. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load continues to fall, and the overall demand side is not performing well. It is expected that EVA spot prices will remain stagnant during the May Day period.

The domestic dimethyl ether market stabilized first and then rose in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3600 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3840 yuan/ton on April 28th. The monthly increase was 6.67%, a decrease of 6.11% compared to the same period last year.

As of April 28th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3800-3850 yuan/ton

In April, the dimethyl ether market in Henan region stabilized first and then rose. In early April, the price of dimethyl ether remained stable. The on-site supply remains stable, with downstream essential procurement as the main focus. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and on-site trading is light. Starting from late April, the price of dimethyl ether has been raised multiple times. The raw material methanol continues to rise, driven by high costs, and the mentality of the industry has slightly improved. Under cost pressure, dimethyl ether enterprises are pushing up prices, with a significant increase in Henan region. At the same time, downstream consumers have a clear resistance to high priced dimethyl ether, and demand remains weak.

The raw material methanol market fluctuated and fell. After reaching a low point on April 9th, it began to rise to the monthly high point on April 19th, and then began to fall, providing strong support for dimethyl ether.

Overall, the support of raw materials for dimethyl ether has weakened, and it is expected that there will be insufficient momentum for the continued rise of dimethyl ether in the future. On the contrary, under the constraint of demand, it is expected that the possibility of a slight decline in dimethyl ether prices will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2966 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 2910 yuan/ton on April 22nd. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate fell by 1.91%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 3930 yuan/ton on April 22nd. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.25%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium phosphate market continued to operate weakly. The decrease in raw material prices has weakened cost support. Spring plowing has entered the final stage, with weak demand in the ammonium phosphate market and limited new transactions. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, and the market supply has decreased. As of April 22nd, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2880-2950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4070 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3550-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight decline. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average, with limited trading of new orders on the exchange, and weak performance in the downstream market of phosphate ore. In some regions, the slightly tight supply of phosphate ore can still support mining companies in maintaining stable quotations, but in some areas, the overall pace of phosphate ore shipments is average due to the weak supply and demand. Therefore, some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 20-30 yuan/ton.

The sulfur market for raw materials has seen a rise followed by a fall in sulfur prices in East China this week. The maintenance of refineries in Shandong region is concentrated, and the market supply of goods is still low. Enterprise inventory is relatively low, and most refineries have strong quotations. At the same time, downstream procurement is active, and market trading is good. Some enterprises have lowered their quotations due to high price increases in the early stage and downstream resistance. The overall sulfur market is still operating at a relatively high level.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium phosphate market has recently seen a downward trend. At present, downstream demand performance is poor, with weak costs and demand. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

This week (4.15-19), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. The transaction prices of major manufacturers were generally lowered by about 3000 yuan/ton this week, slightly slower than the previous week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.44%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 42000 to 50000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, large factories are currently operating with concentrated facilities, resulting in high supply pressure. On the one hand, mainstream large factories have stable output, new production capacity has been gradually released, and domestic supply has performed well. On the other hand, the high inventory of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers has led to a significant decrease in procurement efforts, which has also led to a gradual increase in silicon material inventory. Although large factories have generally raised prices before, they are currently under inventory pressure and have to lower prices in order to clear inventory. It is not ruled out that prices may continue to loosen in the future.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, this week’s silicon wafer prices continued their previous decline, and since April, silicon wafer prices have continued to decline. The operating load of silicon wafer companies has decreased, and the current inventory pressure is relatively high. The main reason is the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with insufficient production from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to an oversupply situation. Some second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers continue to reduce operating rates to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the current effect is not significant, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to solve in the short term. As of April 19th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers this week remained at last week’s level, about 1.65 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of G12 continues to decline, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan, falling to 2.10 yuan/piece.

From the perspective of terminal demand, most battery cell quotations have stabilized, and prices have stopped the downward trend, but some models still have a slight decline. The main reason is the weakening of downstream demand, the significant price reduction of upstream silicon wafers, and the decrease in procurement efforts at the component end, which have double suppressed the overall environment of solar cells. This week, the components were affected by the sluggish terminal installation, resulting in a sluggish price trend and a pattern of oversupply in the photovoltaic industry chain.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and the contradiction of oversupply is prominent. However, the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate, and it is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and there may still be room for a decline in silicon material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on April 19th was 5700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average price of 5700 yuan/ton on April 15th.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has first increased and then decreased, and cost support is still acceptable. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is in urgent need. Detailed discussions on actual orders are being conducted, and market transactions are limited. As of April 19th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5600-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has continued to rise this week. The current market trend is improving, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine increased first and then decreased this week. Currently, downstream demand has weakened, and the sales situation is not good. Negotiations on actual orders are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the recent decrease in raw material liquid chlorine prices has weakened cost support. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin is insufficient, and the market is mainly cautious. It is expected that the short-term market price of chlorinated paraffin will be adjusted and operated on a wait-and-see basis.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in April. On April 17th, the sulfur price was 1240.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.53% compared to the sulfur price of 1073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since April, the sulfur market has continued to rise strongly. Before the Qingming Festival, downstream companies were actively stocking up before the festival, with active on-site trading, smooth enterprise shipments, and an upward trend in sulfur prices; After the holiday, refineries in Shandong have concentrated maintenance, reduced capacity utilization, low inventory levels, and tight market supply. Refinery prices have risen significantly, while downstream procurement is more active, making it difficult to find low prices on the market. In the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the focus of market transactions continues to shift upwards. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1180-1330 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1180-1320 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market fluctuated narrowly, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on April 17th at 331.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the beginning of the month price of 328.75 yuan/ton. The domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly stable, with acid companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a delivery rhythm. Downstream demand and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Acid companies ship according to demand, and some adjust sulfuric acid prices slightly based on inventory conditions.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 2966.67 yuan/ton on April 17th, a decrease of 4.20% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3096.67 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the ammonium phosphate market is sluggish, downstream purchases are light, demand support is insufficient, manufacturers have limited new orders, pending orders are reduced, enterprise sales are under pressure, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline.

Technical analysis

Sulfur may continue to be strong and upward in the short term. Since January 28, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 23.58%.

At present, sulfur is at a high level in one year, a low level in two years, and a low level in three years. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average value of sulfur in the past year is 956.46 yuan/ton, the median value is 976.67 yuan/ton, the minimum value is 713.33 yuan/ton, and the maximum value is 1240.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is 0.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, the sulfur market currently has a lot of equipment maintenance, tight supply of goods, stable downstream demand, smooth enterprise shipments, and strong supplier benefits. It is expected that sulfur prices will continue to be strong in the short term, but in the long run, it will be difficult to find low prices downstream or there may be resistance to high priced sulfur. The sulfur market will remain stagnant and consolidated in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.