1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has declined this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1015 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% and a year-on-year increase of 25.96%. On February 20th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 843 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 40.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the caustic soda market has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 940-1000 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with a mainstream market price of 950-1080 yuan/ton in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of 2900-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) in 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has been weak, with downstream resistance and market inventory accumulation due to price increases. Downstream alumina is expected to observe the market trend and see that caustic soda prices will be weak.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak due to the accumulation of market inventory and average downstream demand. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 10th to February 17th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12637.5 yuan/ton to 12375 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 2.08% during the period. This week, the butadiene market has been running weakly, and the supply side has not changed much recently, with an overall stability. Recently, the demand side synthetic rubber market has performed poorly, and the futures market as a whole is weak. The purchase of raw material butadiene remains in high demand, and market transactions are weak, resulting in an overall weak market atmosphere. As of February 17th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is between 12380-12500 yuan/ton. The self pickup price for container delivery in East China ranges from 12000 to 12100 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with little overall fluctuation. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at $75.02 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene by 300 yuan/ton and implemented 12400 yuan/ton. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber markets have been operating weakly this cycle, and the butadiene rubber market in Shanghai has been consolidating weakly. The futures price of Shunding rubber fluctuated weakly, while the supply price of Shunding rubber spot suppliers remained stable for the time being, and merchant offers were slightly adjusted. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Qixiang, Chuanhua, and Qilu Shunding are 14550-14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: In terms of cost, the recent weak trend in the crude oil market will drive the weak atmosphere in the spot market. The supply side has slightly rebounded recently, with loose supply. The demand side has maintained on-demand procurement in the near future, with overall weak transactions. Overall, the overall performance of the butadiene market is stable but slightly weak, with a lack of demand support. It is expected that there will be some downward adjustment space in the future, continuing the weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 14th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 9200 yuan/ton. Compared with February 9th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9062 yuan/ton, the price has increased by 138 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, has been stable and rising. During the week, the overall focus of the cyclohexanone market shifted upwards, with low prices gradually decreasing and the gap between high and low prices narrowing. As of February 14th, the reference price for cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province is around 9150-9350 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply and demand: After the holiday, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province is gradually recovering and operating. As we enter this week, the market situation continues to be positive, with some equipment undergoing maintenance and overall supply being tight in the market. The pressure on the supply side is relatively small, and spot inventory is available. Downstream solvent and chemical fiber markets require essential procurement, with good transmission between supply and demand.

Cost wise: This week, the cost side raw material pure benzene has risen, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 13th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7801.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29% compared to February 1st (7553.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week (1.18-1.24), the downward trend of dichloromethane continued to expand. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on January 24th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2465 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.85%;

Logistics are restricted near the Spring Festival, market trading is weak, and demand support is insufficient. On January 24th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2410-2450 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The starting load this week remains stable compared to last week. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

Cost aspect: With the holiday approaching and poor demand, the shipment of methanol and liquid chlorine is under pressure, and the market continues to decline. On January 24th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.65% from the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The refrigerant market is facing tight supply, with prices maintaining stability and exploring upward trends. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, foreign trade delivery is not optimistic, and the domestic trade atmosphere is light.

Business analysts believe that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, transportation restrictions, holiday arrangements, and other factors will further affect overall production and sales. Waiting for resumption of work and production after the holiday, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate weakly and steadily after the holiday.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash remained stable on January 23, with a market average price of 1494 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day’s price of 1494 yuan/ton, and a 2.23% decrease from the beginning of the month. On January 23, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 76.62, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 59.48% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.33% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

On January 23rd, the soda ash market operated steadily. The operating rate of the supply side soda ash plant is still at a high level, the market supply of goods is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively high, maintaining active shipment; On the demand side, the terminal market prices are generally average, with limited replenishment demand and insufficient support for soda ash. Enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and soda ash quotations remain stable.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices were lowered on January 23, with a market average price of 16.30 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.81% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 16.60 yuan/square meter. The glass market equipment has not changed much, and the production has remained stable. The downstream stocking demand has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The glass market is weak and declining.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is high, the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient, and the downstream glass market is weak. The demand for soda ash is average, and there is a supply-demand game in the market. It is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly, depending on downstream market demand.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On January 21st, the average market price was 7519.67 yuan/ton

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market is temporarily stable and consolidating. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7500 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, Shandong’s local refining enterprises mainly focus on stocking up and raising prices. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is still acceptable. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and it is expected that the pure benzene market will stabilize and operate in the short term. Actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

1、 Review of the 2024 Epichlorohydrin Market:

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of epichlorohydrin at the beginning of the year was 8125 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 7987 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.7% for the whole year. According to the price trend chart, the highest point of the year’s price occurred in mid December, with a market average price of 9225 yuan/ton. The lowest point of the year’s price occurred in mid July, with a market average price of 7875 yuan/ton, and the maximum fluctuation range for the year was 1350 yuan/ton.

From the trend chart, we can see that the epoxy chloropropane market in 2024 shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the first half of the year, the epoxy chloropropane market fluctuated downward, and in the second half of the year, the price rapidly increased before experiencing a slight decline. The supply-demand game is an important cause of price fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there was an overall oversupply in the market, and traders were cautious and cautious, with prices remaining low; In the second half of the year, high raw material prices provided support, and most enterprises were operating at full capacity. In addition, some factories were temporarily shut down for maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. At the same time, downstream demand has improved, procurement is active, and prices continue to rise, maintaining an upward trend.

From the perspective of raw materials:

Glycerol: High market prices and cost pressures on glycerol in 2024

The profit of the propylene process unit in 2024 is around 70.54 yuan/ton, and the profit of the glycerol process unit is about 218.07 yuan/ton. Around June, glycerol prices experienced a decline, while the cost profit of epichlorohydrin remained relatively considerable; After entering the second half of the year, glycerol prices rapidly rose, leading to increased costs and slightly insufficient profits for suppliers.

Acrylic: China’s propylene market will fluctuate and decline in 2024

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, taking Shandong propylene as an example, the average price at the beginning of the year was 6868.25 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 6835.75 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.47% in the market during the year. Based on the comprehensive analysis of crude oil and supply and demand, it is expected that the price of propylene will show a fluctuating trend in 2025. The specific trend still requires close attention to market dynamics and policy support.

2、 2025 Epichlorohydrin Supply End Forecast:

The production capacity of epichlorohydrin will grow rapidly in 2024, with a total capacity of approximately 2.215 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.91%. Driven by the expansion of production capacity, the output has also increased. The domestic production of epichlorohydrin in 2024 is about 1.275 million tons, an increase of 7.74% compared to last year.

From the graph, it can be seen that the production capacity of epichlorohydrin will maintain a growth trend in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The newly added production capacity in 2023 will be around 300000 tons, and in 2024 it will be around 140000 tons. The production in 2024 will also increase slightly compared to 2023, and it is expected that the supply side of epichlorohydrin will continue to show incremental expectations in 2025.

In 2025, the epichlorohydrin industry will see the commissioning of multiple new production capacity projects and steady expansion of existing capacity. Against the backdrop of high downstream demand potential, technological innovation, and increasing environmental requirements, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin industry will continue to maintain a steady growth trend.

3、 Forecast of demand for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

Epoxy resin is the largest downstream of epichlorohydrin, accounting for about 90%. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of epoxy resin will first decrease and then increase in 2024. The highest value of the year occurred in December at about 14066.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest value of the year occurred in April at about 12600.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 11.64%. The production capacity and output of epoxy resin will steadily increase in 2024, providing strong support for the epoxy chloropropane industry and further driving its market demand growth. It is expected that the production capacity of epoxy resin will continue to grow in 2025, and more attention should be paid to the impact of the industry’s operating conditions on the epoxy chloropropane market.

Import and export

In terms of imports, according to customs data, the total import volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 646.97 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%. From the graph, it can be seen that the import volume of epichlorohydrin in China has shown a decreasing trend year by year. Mainly due to the overcapacity of epichlorohydrin production in China in recent years, the import arbitrage window has narrowed, the dependence on imports has decreased, and coupled with weak domestic demand, some factories are producing at low loads, limiting the growth rate of production and resulting in a decrease in import volume. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous expansion of production capacity and output, China’s epichlorohydrin industry will gradually achieve self-sufficiency and not rely on imports.

In terms of exports, according to customs data, the total export volume of epichlorohydrin in China in 2024 was 84352719 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.79%. In 2024, it has surpassed the high level of 72000 tons in 2022 and set a new historical high. With the continuous expansion of production capacity and increasingly fierce industry competition, domestic enterprises are actively seeking overseas markets. It is expected that the export volume of epichlorohydrin in China will continue to increase by 2025.

4、 Market forecast for epichlorohydrin in 2025:

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of epichlorohydrin will increase in 2025, and the demand side may still dominate the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will fluctuate narrowly in 2025, and more attention should still be paid to cost pressures.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1711 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% lower than the reference average price of 1721 yuan/ton on January 13th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated slightly. As of January 17th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1600-1655 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1650 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1760 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has seen stable supply and increased demand. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week, and market inventory remains loose. In terms of demand, there has been an increase in downstream agricultural demand before the holiday, smooth transactions in the urea market, and a decrease in industrial demand.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been mainly fluctuating at a low level recently. At present, the demand for pre holiday market replenishment is increasing, and downstream replenishment demand will gradually weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate prices continued to bottom out and fluctuate in mid January. As of January 15th, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 76300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from last week’s 76000 yuan/ton and a decrease of 2.18% from the same period last month’s 78000 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 79100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from 78600 yuan/ton last week and down 1.62% from 80400 yuan/ton in the same period last month.

In terms of raw materials:

The shutdown or reduction of production by some Australian lithium mining companies may put upward pressure on lithium ore prices,. However, at the same time, the expected production of lithium resources in salt lakes is optimistic and has a cost competitive advantage. The sufficient supply of lithium resources in salt lakes and low-cost production are expected to have a certain inhibitory effect on the market price of lithium carbonate.

Downstream demand side

The operating rate of downstream battery factories has increased, and there is still a demand for pre holiday stocking. The power battery market has performed well, especially in the production and sales of ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, and electric vehicles, which have achieved considerable month on month growth. This growth trend has had a corresponding boosting effect on the demand for lithium carbonate. Internationally, the results of the US presidential election have been implemented, and tariffs may increase in the future, leading to an increase in battery factory production.

According to the analysis of lithium carbonate data from Shengyi Society, although some Australian mines are experiencing production cuts and shutdowns. However, the overall inventory of lithium carbonate is still excessive, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5% compared to the same period last year. On January 9th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.66% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 30.41% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are conducting centralized maintenance. Most downstream manufacturers have also stopped production. Downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1654.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1624.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.81% and an increase of 75.29% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. However, downstream demand for bromine has decreased, with demand mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5746.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 5816.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.20%. Due to insufficient support from suppliers, weak downstream demand, and poor market trading, the price of ethyl acetate has weakened and declined.

Market analysis: This month, the ethyl acetate market has fluctuated and fallen. During the month, there were frequent changes in the ethyl acetate plant, and the mentality of the industry was unstable. At the same time, downstream performance was poor, demand remained weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light. In a timely manner, upstream acetic acid prices rose, but the price increase of ethyl acetate was still limited, resulting in a supply-demand game in the market. The overall price of ethyl acetate fluctuated weakly during the month.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of December 31st, the price was 2970 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.68% compared to the acetic acid price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market first fell and then rose, increasing cost pressure and reducing profits for ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future, the current price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downwards, and downstream entry enthusiasm is not high, which provides weak support for the market. Although the price of raw material acetic acid is strong, there may be some psychological support, but the supply and demand game continues in the market. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will continue to be weakly adjusted and operated in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices declined in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 1021 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 827 yuan/ton. The overall price decreased by 19%, and the price increased by 3.63% compared to the same period last year. On December 30th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 823 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 41.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 37.63% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-960 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 780-850 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall supply from enterprises is sufficient. Downstream alumina exhibits narrow fluctuations, with demand driven purchasing trends.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 52nd week of 2024 (12.23-12.27), there were 0 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 4 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are caustic soda (-5.30%) and PVC (-0.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.92%.

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. The price of caustic soda is in a stable operating trend, with sufficient inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is generally expected to maintain a stable operating trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a unilateral decline in December. From December 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5450 yuan/ton to 5162 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.28% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 23.32%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a weak decline, with some areas affected by the previous snowfall, resulting in logistics disruptions and pressure on shipments. In addition, there was ample supply of spot goods, leading to significant pressure on enterprises to reduce inventory. At the same time, demand side support was poor, with rigid demand procurement being the main factor, resulting in a decrease in ethanol prices. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market remained sluggish and lacked positive news support, leading to continued weak downstream demand. Holders of goods are experiencing slow shipments, resulting in overall high pressure on shipments. Manufacturers are under pressure to sell at a discount, causing ethanol prices to fluctuate and fall. At the end of the month, the price of ethanol in the domestic market fell significantly, and the supply was relatively high. Downstream gas purchases were mediocre, and prices from manufacturers kept falling.

On the cost side, the market price of raw material corn is weak and falling, and the inventory of southern ports is rising. There is a lot of storage pressure, and the ports are still receiving goods one after another. Traders have a high enthusiasm for shipping, maintaining high quotes and low prices, and there is a lot of bargaining space. Recently, downstream procurement enthusiasm has been low, port transactions have been limited, and the rise in futures prices has been weak. Traders have generally lowered their quotes by 10-20 yuan/ton. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate is rumored to be operating at a high level. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

The future market forecast shows that the spot supply is abundant, the terminal Baijiu consumption has little change, and the demand side support is limited. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated in December, with a slight overall increase. On December 1st, the market price of aniline was 9337 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, the price was 9375 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.4% and a decrease of 12.89% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The aniline market in December was dominated by supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a range. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material pure benzene increased, and the profit of aniline narrowed. Under cost pressure, aniline slightly rose, and downstream acceptance was average. Subsequently, the market digested the increase, and the price remained stable. At the end of the month, the company’s stock flow was average, and inventory pressure increased. At the same time, the price of pure benzene fell, and the price of aniline began to decline. The price fell to a low level, downstream entered the market at a low price, and after the release of upstream inventory, the price slightly increased.

Pure benzene: In December, the pure benzene market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, downstream buying increased, and the price of pure benzene rose. Subsequently, there was a high-level consolidation and operation, while downstream prices of pure benzene saw a slight decline due to high raw material prices, tightened profits, and weak purchasing intentions. On December 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7338 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, the average price of pure benzene was 7513 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current favorable support for the aniline market is insufficient, and the raw material pure benzene is showing a weak trend. At the same time, the downstream is in a stalemate and waiting, and inventory is accumulating on the market. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased recently, with a 50 yuan/ton increase on Thursday and a 100 yuan/ton increase on Friday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China has risen to 9150 yuan/ton, with acceptance of 9250 yuan/ton. It is reported that the price of aniline has fallen to a low level, and downstream companies have entered the market at a low price, resulting in improved purchasing power and reduced inventory. In addition, with cost support, aniline factories have actively pushed up prices. With the rise in prices, downstream market entry is cautious, and it is expected that the market will consolidate and operate after the rise of aniline in the short term.

In the off-season of December demand, the market price of epoxy propane hit bottom. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.85% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: In December, most factories plan to resume production of maintenance equipment. At present, there is insufficient price support on the supply side.

Raw material side: The rise and fall of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side varies. At present, the factory price of mainstream liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province is 150-200 yuan/ton. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6895.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand side is relatively cold, with insufficient follow-up on procurement, cold actual market transactions, and mainly focused on first-time purchases, adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Overall, during the off-season of market demand, the demand for epichlorohydrin is relatively weak.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that due to the impact of the off-season, downstream demand side parking and maintenance, weakened procurement volume, and the gradual closure of enterprises towards the end of the year, it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.77% during the period, a month on month increase of 4.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise. The main regional equipment in the Middle East has changed, and the expected reduction in methanol import volume is expected. Port methanol inventory is gradually entering the channel of destocking, and the market is dominated by a bullish mentality.

As of the close on December 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2501, opened at 2629 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2637 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2605 yuan/ton. It closed at 2610 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 9% or 0.34% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 499967 lots, with a holding volume of 674811 lots and a daily increase of 10634 lots.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. With the continuous decline in quotes from Beigang, market pessimism is spreading, and there is a lack of motivation to transport goods from production areas. At present, the overall market supply exceeds demand, the willingness of terminal procurement is low, and the support for coal prices is insufficient. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: there may be an increase in demand for acetic acid methanol; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: The expected shutdown of a dimethyl ether unit has reduced the demand for methanol; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, influenced by favorable factors on the methanol demand side.

On the supply side, the overall equipment recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of December 12th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 124.00-125.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 433.00-434.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, factory supply may decrease, and under low inventory, enterprises will mainly sell at high prices; In terms of ports, due to changes in equipment in the main regions of the Middle East, the mentality is relatively strong, and inventory may continue to be depleted. Downstream demand is expected to maintain incremental growth. Methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the domestic adipic acid market has been continuously rising since December, with an overall increase. On December 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 6th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.41%.

Cost increases, domestic adipic acid market continues to rise

At the beginning of December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise. Mainly due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, the cost has increased, and the demand for purchasing adipic acid from end-users has increased. With the strong bullish sentiment of adipic acid manufacturers and multiple bullish factors supporting it, the adipic acid market continues to rise, with prices rising. The mainstream market price is 8500-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is recovering.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of adipic acid is still loose, and in the short term, there is insufficient momentum for the sustained rise of the adipic acid market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall TDI market in China was weak in November, with a gradual decline. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12950 yuan/ton, and on November 29th, the TDI price was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 24.7%.

The performance of the domestic TDI market in November was average, continuing to be weak, and the focus of transactions shifted downwards. Except for a few devices that experienced short-term shutdowns and unstable operation during the month, the overall operation of other devices was stable, with limited supply side benefits. Downstream demand has not improved, with rigid demand as the main factor and insufficient purchasing power. Under the game of supply and demand, the focus of TDI transactions continues to shift downwards.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated and fell. As of November 28th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 5723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35% from the price of 5860 yuan/ton on November 1st. The supply and demand of toluene in the month are weak, and the demand in the chemical industry in Shandong is still acceptable. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China is high, and refineries are actively shipping. At the end of the month, the futures market strengthened, boosting the mentality of the toluene market. Recently, there have been fewer goods arriving at the port, and the price of toluene has rebounded slightly.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is a strong willingness to raise prices in the upstream market, and the low-end prices of TDI are tightening. The atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet, and the factory settlement price at the end of the month is about to be released. We are waiting for the news to land and expect the TDI market to consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1556 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.77%. On November 29th, the light soda ash commodity index was 79.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 26.35% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall soda ash market has been weak this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity is relatively high, and the market supply is sufficient. Although glass prices are running strongly, the benefits for soda ash are not obvious. Downstream purchasing is limited, and market trading is still weak. The situation of on-site supply exceeding demand is obvious, and the soda ash market continues to be weak.

As of November 29, 2024, the mainstream market price for light soda ash in the East China region is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in Central China is around 1380-1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for light soda ash in North China is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass this month first increased and then decreased. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.95 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.57%. The glass spot market is fluctuating at a high level, and downstream market entry follows demand. The trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable, and the glass market is relatively strong and operating steadily.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of soda ash and glass commodities on November 29th was 81.77, up 1 point from yesterday, down 27.23% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and up 7.24% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has remained stable in the near future, while the downstream glass market price has fallen. However, there is insufficient support for soda ash, and the utilization rate of supply side soda ash production capacity has increased. Sales pressure still exists for enterprises, and the mentality of operators is wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of soda ash will run weakly in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on November 28th was around 1548 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1556 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1880 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite fell. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, with sulfur prices rising by 1.24% and downstream caprolactam prices rising by 1.15%. Although the upstream sulfur and downstream caprolactam prices of sodium metabisulfite have increased, it cannot cover the situation of limited transactions in the sodium metabisulfite market, and the price of sodium metabisulfite is weak. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the trading of sodium metabisulfite market is light, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3675 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from the beginning of the week price of 3668.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease of temperature in the north, the fluorite supply has decreased, and the fluorite market.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton recently. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is fluctuating at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, aniline has fallen twice recently, with a magnitude of 300 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton respectively, and the price has fallen near the cost line. Recently, the production of aniline has increased, and at the same time, a certain factory’s aniline plant has plans to restart. Downstream companies are cautious about entering the market, and the flow of aniline is not smooth. In order to stimulate the flow of goods, prices have continued to decline. After the decline, the market atmosphere has improved, and the factory has raised prices. It is expected that in the short term, there will be limited room for further decline in the price of aniline, and it will operate weakly and consolidate.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.96% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on November 10th. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the supply of isooctanol decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply of isooctanol has decreased and demand has remained stable. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen.

Reduced supply of isooctanol

The operating load of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased. Lihua Yi Enterprise’s octanol equipment has been shut down, resulting in a decrease in the supply of isooctanol in the market and increased support for its upward trend.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the DOP price was 9438.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9238.75 yuan/ton on November 10th. The demand for plasticizer DOP is stable, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and rises. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers is stable. The demand support for isooctanol still exists.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, the supply of isooctanol has decreased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has increased; Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a high level, and the demand for isooctanol is stable. In the future, with the resumption of production and sufficient supply of isooctanol, the supply and demand of isooctanol will be relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol will stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 15, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6900 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.70%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early November, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed an upward trend. The price of n-butanol has been rising from 6900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to around 7500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.7% in the first half of the month. On November 15th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region was around 7300-7700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Rising Market Trend

In terms of demand: In the first half of the year, the overall demand performance of the downstream market for n-butanol was good, downstream users ushered in phased stocking, new transactions for n-butanol improved, and the overall market atmosphere was boosted. The demand side provided upward support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of supply: At the beginning of the month, the supply of n-butanol showed stable performance, with smooth transmission between supply and demand and little supply pressure. Subsequently, the n-butanol plant of a large factory in Shandong was shut down for maintenance, and the overall supply in the field became tight. The supply side supported the market trend and continued to adjust upwards.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ November 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7700 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7700 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 8000-8100 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7900-8000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, there is a temporary production stoppage and reduction phenomenon on the supply side, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has improved. The supply and demand transmission is still good. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been raised twice this week, by 200 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline has risen to 9400 yuan/ton, with an acceptance of 9550 yuan/ton. It is reported that the recent improvement in the shipment of aniline, coupled with low prices in the early stage and increased downstream purchasing willingness, has led to smooth destocking of factories. There are plans for factories to start production in the future, and supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the short-term upward space for aniline will be limited, and the main focus will be on digesting the increase.

The construction peak season of Golden September and Silver October saw an overall improvement in supply and demand fundamentals. In early October, the asphalt market was dominated, but due to limited demand and weak cost factors, the asphalt market experienced a slight decline at the end of the month. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3390 yuan/ton on October 1st, and reached 3522 yuan/ton on October 31st, an increase of 3.89%.

From a cost perspective, the weakening of geopolitical risks, the decline in oil prices, and the neutral fundamentals provide support for prices, and it is expected that the macro level will be boosted. In the short term, an oil price of $72 per barrel is reasonable, and we will focus on macro policies and the recovery of OPEC+production cuts in the future.

In terms of supply, the output in November was 2.35 million tons, an increase of 30000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 430000 tons compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the actual production in October will be around 2.1 million tons, and the actual production in September will be 2 million tons. The average daily production in October was 75000 tons. Due to the significant impact of the resumption of production by Qilu Petrochemical and Beihai Refining, as well as the increase in production by Jinling Petrochemical and Ke Petrochemical, the main focus of production increase is on the main business.

From a demand perspective, there were varying degrees of destocking in different regions in October. The overall inventory reached 1.983 million tons, lower than the average of the past five years.

From a seasonal perspective, November showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the supply-demand imbalance will ease and the price range will shift downwards; From the perspective of Business Society, the short-term supply-demand mismatch provides support for prices, and it is expected that the supply-demand contradiction will ease and the oscillation range will shift downwards from November.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride has been declining recently. As of October 27th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% from 6570 yuan/ton on October 21st.

Supply side: The operating rate of maleic anhydride has increased this week, and the supply has increased; This week, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have declined, and the quotes from distributors have also fallen. The signing of new orders by factories is limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. As of October 27th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5800 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The overall international crude oil market has risen this week, with n-butane falling first and then rising. As of October 27th, the price in Shandong is around 5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: This week, the unsaturated resin market remained weak and stable, with insufficient follow-up on downstream demand for unsaturated resin, limited support for unsaturated resin, and strong market wait-and-see sentiment.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; The supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and the recent signing of new orders by factories is limited. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly weakly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1604 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the end of the week was 1592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%. On October 24th, the baking soda commodity index was 106.00, a decrease of 0.06 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.05% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 20.09% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1594 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PET market price is adjusted weakly. As of October 21st, the PET factory’s quotation has been lowered, and its average market price has been adjusted to 6347 yuan per ton.

In terms of cost, the crude oil market has seen a recent decline in crude oil prices. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4912 yuan per ton, a decrease of over 200 yuan per ton compared to October 11th. The weakening of cost support and the increase in PTA supply and demand are the main reasons for the price decline. The short-term PTA spot market is mainly consolidating weakly, with crude oil and raw materials continuing to decline, PET currently lacking cost support, and the focus shifting downwards. Coupled with the stable increase in PET supply and weak downstream buying, the PET market prices continue to operate weakly.

Overall, the market is in a downward trend, and the PET market may experience weak fluctuations in the short term. The actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has fallen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 1923 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 1916 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market prices have been weak. The upstream soda ash prices of sodium metabisulfite have remained stable, with sulfur prices rising by 3.06% and downstream caprolactam prices falling by 0.65%. The sodium metabisulfite market has weak transactions and lacks favorable support. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sales of sodium metabisulfite in the market are mainly based on orders, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8250 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 8241 yuan/ton on September 27, during which the quotation fell by 0.10%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10350 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 10466 yuan/ton on September 29, with a price increase of 0.13% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8112 yuan/ton on September 23, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 29, with a price increase of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, the price of polyethylene has increased. The release of macro positive policies has boosted market sentiment and boosted the polyethylene market. On the supply side, in terms of petrochemical inventory, according to data statistics, as of September 29th, the plastic two barrel oil inventory was 670000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons from Friday. The month on month increase was 2.29%, and the year-on-year increase was 19.64%. The company’s inventory accumulated, and most traders left before the holiday. There were not many on-site sources of goods, and the main focus was on raising prices. On the demand side, the pre holiday replenishment behavior is gradually slowing down.

The number of maintenance equipment in enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on domestic supply is still high. After the 11th National Day holiday, there may be replenishment activities, and it is expected that polyethylene will have a strong trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has risen significantly in recent days (9.18-9.28). As of September 28th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17063 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.09% from 16237 yuan/ton on September 18th. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials have significantly increased during the cycle; On the other hand, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to decline; In addition, downstream tire manufacturers have provided support for pre holiday stocking of natural rubber, which has led to a significant increase in the price of natural rubber due to cost and supply and demand support.

Recently, the poor weather in the production areas of Thailand and Vietnam has led to a certain degree of obstruction in the supply of natural rubber raw materials; On the one hand, domestic processing plants replenish their inventory before the holiday, and on the other hand, there is a lot of rainfall at the beginning of the week in Hainan, which hinders rubber cutting; The price of natural rubber raw materials has significantly increased. As of September 28th, the price of Thai glue is 76.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 72.50 baht/kg on September 18th; As of September 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 18600 yuan/ton, significantly higher than the price of 16800 yuan/ton on September 18th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of September 22, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 422500 tons, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the previous period.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, the downstream tire industry has experienced stable but slight fluctuations in production, and downstream stocking demand before the holiday is facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of September 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.6%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Under the policy of promoting consumption, all tire enterprises are operating steadily, which provides certain support for natural rubber; Overall, in the short term, supported by costs and demand, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to experience strong fluctuations after the holiday.

Aluminum prices fell first and then rose in September

Aluminum prices first fell and then rose in September, showing strong performance recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 27, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20326.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.48% from the market average price of 19643.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).

Aluminum prices are expected in October

Aluminum prices in October may continue their upward trend from September. The reasons are as follows.

1. Domestic macro positive news is released, and policies are boosting the non-ferrous sector. The central bank has proposed further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity, while also creating a shift towards refinancing to guide listed companies to repurchase and increase their holdings of stocks. At the real estate level, it is proposed to lower the interest rates of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. The positive expectations brought by domestic policies, coupled with the positive expectations of terminal demand, have driven aluminum prices to remain firm and improve emotionally. Under the guidance of policy direction, market confidence has returned and sentiment is unlikely to subside in the short term. It is expected that the policy will continue to boost positive sentiment in October.

2. Inventory is in a continuous state of destocking, and Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the supply side are nearing the end of resuming production, with high daily output and narrowing upward space; Multiple downstream sectors on the demand side have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories in a state of slight destocking. The expectations for the Golden September and Silver October are good.

Risk point: Import and export may be affected by foreign policy factors, and some of the US 301 tariff policies will take effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

This week (September 16-20), the cost side support was weak, the demand side, and the traditional textile peak season in September did not meet expectations, resulting in a weak decline in the nylon market. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been lowered, and the market trend of nylon PA6 chips is weak, with weak cost support. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, resulting in poor trading activity within the market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not high. There is a lack of positive news to boost the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among industry players.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly this week (September 16-20). As of September 20, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 18360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.76%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 15875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 1.09%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 0.38% from last week’s price.

Raw materials remain weak and continue to decline

This week (September 16-20), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, the price of pure benzene fell sharply amidst the sharp drop in crude oil. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing was lowered by 300 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, which had a negative impact on costs. With the introduction of new production capacity, the supply of caprolactam has increased, and market confidence is bearish, resulting in a rapid decline in caprolactam prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.16% from last week.

Supply demand

This week (September 16-20), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. Most of the nylon filament market facilities are operating stably, and currently the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in September did not meet expectations, and demand did not substantially improve. Coupled with weak costs, weaving manufacturers have mostly maintained stable production, and foreign trade brands have gradually issued their essential needs. However, the order volume is still mainly in a small quantity and multiple times mode, and there are still few bulk goods. Lack of market confidence.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8817.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, inventory is sufficient, and the price trend of epoxy propane market is stabilizing.

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has continued to decline. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6760.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.98% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is not smooth. Many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and the epoxy propane market has entered a consolidation stage.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in weak rise in epoxy propane prices. Prices tend to stabilize, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11750 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11733/ton, a decrease of 0.14% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have continued to decline this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is mainly dominated by inquiries, with weak transactions and a lack of favorable price support. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction volume of activated carbon market is lower than expected, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

August is coming to an end, and the nylon filament market is stabilizing and observing consolidation, with large stability and small movements, and prices slightly rising. The supply and demand of upstream raw material caprolactam are temporarily tight, leading to price increases; There is currently no significant improvement in downstream demand, and manufacturers are following up on demand from multiple parties. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and businesses lack confidence in the future market. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and inventory pressure is not significant. Overall, as costs continue to rise and demand remains weak, the price of nylon filament remains stable with small fluctuations and a slight upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly increased in August. As of August 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.21%. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16300 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.15%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Raw materials remain stable and gradually strengthen

In August, the fundamentals of the nylon filament raw material caprolactam market improved, with stable and strengthening cost support. Supply and demand were temporarily tight, and prices rose slightly. On August 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12828.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (12758.33 yuan/ton).

Supply and demand: In August, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable. During the month, most of the nylon filament market equipment operated stably, while some manufacturers reduced their equipment load due to increased inventory. At present, the daily production rate of nylon filament market is around 8.4%. Good support from the demand side is difficult to find, the speed of on-site cargo flow has slowed down, trading activity is average, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

In terms of raw material caprolactam, the bottom support for caprolactam prices from the cost side is becoming stronger, and the supply of caprolactam in the market may remain relatively normal. Downstream polymerization factories urgently need to purchase. In September, the traditional peak season for textiles is coming, and the trading atmosphere will improve. It is expected that the caprolactam market will mainly consolidate next month. Therefore, it is expected that the cost side support for nylon filament will remain stable and strong next month.

At present, the overall operating rate of the nylon filament market is relatively high, and the supply on site is relatively sufficient. However, some manufacturers’ shipments are weakening, and their equipment will stabilize in the later stage. Therefore, it is expected that the market supply will remain stable next month.

In September, downstream market demand is expected to improve, with stronger demand for raw materials and better support from the demand side. It is expected that downstream manufacturers of nylon filament will have a stable, moderate, and strong demand for nylon filament in September.

Overall, the cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain relatively stable, while the cost side support for nylon filament is becoming stronger. The weak demand side is expected to change. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market in September will mainly follow the stable and strong operation of raw material consolidation, with market prices expected to rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market continued to decline in August 2024. From August 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 7660 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 9.27% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the mixed xylene market continued to decline, and the crude oil market fluctuated widely during the cycle, with insufficient guidance for the market. Sinopec’s listing prices and refinery prices in various regions generally decreased, especially in the Shandong region where refinery prices fell widely. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak and operating. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Late of the month: The mixed xylene market is weak and volatile, with prices in Shandong and South China initially rising and then falling. As prices continue to remain low, there is some demand for bargain hunting downstream, resulting in a significant improvement in market trading in these two regions and refinery prices rising. However, due to the overall weak trend of the downstream gasoline blending industry and the lack of demand support, the market continues to have insufficient upward momentum, maintaining a stable and weak trend.

Cost wise: In August 2024, the crude oil market maintained a range oscillation trend. In the first half of the month, the crude oil market first fell and then rose. In early August, due to OPEC+’s 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in production, it will be implemented until the end of September. However, from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Starting from mid August, the crude oil market began to rise significantly due to the significant decrease in US crude oil inventories and the easing of geopolitical conflicts. Overall, the crude oil market fluctuated within a range. Looking ahead, crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel; The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $77.58 per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has been significantly reduced this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of August 30th, East China Company quoted 7000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6850-6950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6950-7050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% from the price of 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The prices of raw materials have been continuously falling, and the price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined several times in August, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. At the end of August, domestic ortho phthalic anhydride was priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic nano phthalic anhydride was priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on August 30th, Sinopec executed a price of 8050 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to July 2024. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $927-929/ton as of August 29th, a cumulative decrease of $65/ton from $993/ton at the end of July.

External market: The Asian xylene external market has experienced a wide downward trend during this period, with FOB South Korea closing price of 812-814 US dollars/ton as of August 29th and September; The closing price of CFR China in September is $836 per ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and cost support will be limited. Partial units in Shandong have resumed supply, and the supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose. From the perspective of demand, the downstream market has been operating weakly recently, and the market is maintaining a supply of essential goods. It is expected that in the short term, under the influence of negative market factors, the xylene market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 19th to 23rd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9866.67 yuan/ton. This week, cyclohexanone prices tended to stabilize, with a decrease of 233.33 yuan or 2.31% compared to early August. The raw material pure benzene oscillates and runs, with stable cost support. Downstream demand is generally average, and we tend to follow up on demand. Some companies have temporarily reduced their factory low price offers due to not shipping, resulting in a decrease in market low prices.

Cost aspect:

Raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has fluctuated narrowly and risen, and currently geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States is coming to an end, and coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. Downstream customers enter the market to replenish goods at low prices. As of August 23rd, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8511.33 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current operating load is over 70%. The main production enterprises have limited product supply. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 72.5%, which has decreased compared to last week, with a weekly output of 110000 tons.

On the demand side, the cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the most important downstream of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has fluctuated and risen, with upstream pure benzene prices rebounding. The cost side has stopped falling, which supports downstream confidence. Downstream purchases are made on demand.

3、 Future forecast

The strong consolidation of the raw material pure benzene market is supported by downstream demand procurement of cyclohexanone. Analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly experience volatile operations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 22, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% from last week.

Recently, mainstream formic acid companies have carried out equipment maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply sources.

But downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and formic acid prices have not increased due to reduced supply.

On the cost side, the upstream methanol price of formic acid fluctuated upwards, supporting manufacturers to maintain high quotes, and some downstream markets have recovered. Some regional market quotes have been raised, but the overall market demand has not fully recovered, and industry players have shown a clear wait-and-see attitude.

The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the formic acid market is supported by multiple positive factors, but the negative impact of procurement is dragging down price increases, and it is expected that the formic acid market will fluctuate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 12th to 16th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17233 yuan/ton to 17316 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 0.95%. The domestic aggregated MDI market saw a slight increase during the week, as the supply of MDI decreased due to maintenance by domestic and foreign enterprises, leading to upstream price increases and a slight push up.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected by the incident and was operating at low negative load. It resumed normal operation on the 13th. The 1.1 million ton MDI units of Yantai Wanhua and 80000 ton MDI units of Dongcao Rui’an in China are currently under maintenance.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8534 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market has risen but fallen, with prices decreasing. As of August 16th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10125 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the downstream market is slowly following up and has been in a stalemate recently. The market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with many inquiries and limited actual transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has been slow to follow up, and the overall market has been weak. Short term aggregated MDI demand is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: In the future, factories with maintenance plans and reduced supply expectations may boost the MDI market. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market experienced a slight rebound today (August 13th), with the average spot price of PTA in East China at 5610 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day. A mainstream PTA factory has announced a maintenance plan for its facilities, and in addition, a 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China is scheduled to shut down unexpectedly. Coupled with strong fluctuations in international crude oil prices, this has strengthened cost support and boosted the PTA market. Specifically, let’s take a look:

Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 4.7 million tons are scheduled for maintenance in the Northeast region, with one set of 2.5 million tons PTA plant scheduled for maintenance on August 17th; A 2.2 million ton PTA plant in East China was unexpectedly shut down on August 12th, while another 1.2 million ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in September. The planned maintenance and short shutdown of the equipment will have a certain positive impact on the PTA market. At present, the operating rate of the PTA industry in China is around 83%, and the supply of PTA has decreased in the short term.

Meanwhile, on August 12th, international crude oil futures rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $80.06 per barrel, an increase of $3.22 or 4.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.30 per barrel, an increase of $2.64 or 3.3%. The geopolitical situation remains tense, with international crude oil experiencing strong fluctuations, which still provides support for PTA costs.

Downstream polyester production has slightly rebounded, but it is still at a low level. In addition, there are rumors in the market that polyester factories may increase production cuts. Since August, with continuous high temperatures and off peak electricity policies, most terminal textile enterprises have maintained low operating rates. Currently, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 60%. The weak demand for domestic and foreign textile products remains, and the progress of autumn and winter orders is slow, which is not as expected. As a result, the operating rate will further decline. If there is no positive stimulus in the short term, the overall demand for PTA will remain weak.

Business analysts believe that the upstream cost side still provides support for PTA costs, but downstream polyester procurement is sluggish, and the willingness to stock up on raw materials is not high. It is expected that PTA prices will not have enough momentum to continue rising.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 805 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.05%. On August 11th, the chemical index was 868 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 750-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 840-940 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2350-2550 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. At present, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, and coupled with the weakened export market, the operating mentality of industry players has weakened, so they are more cautious and cautious.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 32nd week of 2024 (8.5-8.9), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.13%), PVC (-0.44%), and caustic soda flakes (-0.10%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.28%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda will remain stable. In the early stage of the Shandong market, there are plans to postpone the construction of new facilities in Zibo. It is expected that the supply of caustic soda will be stable, and downstream customers will be cautious and wait. The overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain a stable operation of caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in July 2024. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic toluene market price fell from 7540 yuan/ton to 7390 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.99% during the period and a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton.

In the first half of the month, the toluene market saw a slight increase, mainly driven by the good performance of gasoline blending. During this period, the trend of cost oil prices fluctuated slightly, but downstream gasoline blending enterprises actively entered the market, with good transaction performance and low inventory levels in the factory. The export performance is also good, with a significant decline in incoming goods from the East China region and tight port supply. Driven by favorable supply and demand, the market atmosphere has improved, and the toluene market has slightly risen.

Late of the month: The overall toluene market is weak, with market prices fluctuating downwards. Supply remains tight this week, and refinery inventories are generally running at a low level. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing intention is low, and the intention to receive goods is insufficient, which has a certain drag on market sentiment. The focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined during the week, and downstream companies maintained their demand for replenishment, lacking support from the demand side. The toluene market cautiously retreated, and the overall market atmosphere was weak

On the cost side: In July 2024, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall wide decline. As of July 29, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.81 per barrel, a monthly decline of 6.85%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.05 per barrel, a monthly decrease of 6.83%. The crude oil analyst of Shengyi Society believes that on the one hand, the easing of the geopolitical situation is bearish on the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. Looking at the future: Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, OPEC+’s production reduction stance is firm, and the traditional peak season in the United States still holds positive news. Under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation has been lowered multiple times during the cycle, but there are slight differences in the amplitude of each underground adjustment. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7450-7500 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7400 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 31st, Sinopec announced the settlement price for xylene in July 2024, which was 8550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the settlement price in June 2024 and a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the listing price in July. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of July 30th, the closing price of CFR China was $993/ton, which was $1044/ton at the beginning of the month and a cumulative decrease of $51/ton.

During this cycle, the price of toluene in Asia’s foreign markets fluctuated, with the FOB South Korean closing price of 851-853 US dollars/ton as of July 30th, and an increase of 7 US dollars/ton during the cycle; The closing price of CFR China in August is 884-886 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 46 US dollars per ton during the period.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, and the support on the cost side is weak. The maintenance of the toluene unit in terms of supply is gradually coming to an end, and the market expects that supply will resume in the future. In terms of demand, as August approaches, the market expects inventory demand to gradually recover with the “Golden September and Silver October” and future holidays. The toluene market will also enter a period of active trading, which still provides some support for market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of equipment resumption on market supply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market showed an M-shaped trend in July 2024, with an average price of 19435 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 19445 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 0.05%.

On July 28th, the lead commodity index was 118.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.48% from the highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29) during the cycle, and up 58.94% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

On July 28th, the basic metal index was 1273 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 98.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. In 2024, the prices of lead ingots mostly rose, with a decrease of 1.77% in February and an increase of over 2.8% in all other months. Looking at the weekly K-bar chart, the market has seen more gains and less losses recently.

Macroscopically, the People’s Bank of China conducted its second MLF operation this month, cutting interest rates by 20 basis points beyond expectations. Analysis suggests that the increase in MLF operations this time has released a signal of easing, meeting the medium and long-term funding needs of financial institutions. The US GDP in the second quarter exceeded expectations, with a month on month growth of 2.8%. The core PCE price index fell to 2.9% month on month, still higher than expected. The implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations in August is expected to result in an increase in tax costs.

According to customs data, the import volume of refined lead (unprocessed refined lead) in China in June 2024 was 524.961 tons, an increase of 235.65% month on month and 199.77% year-on-year. In June 2024, the import volume of lead ingots in China was 7200.12 tons, a decrease of 1.73% compared to the previous month and an increase of 23.44% year-on-year.

The overall lead ingot market in July showed an M-shaped pattern, with a bearish atmosphere in the non-ferrous sector and other bulk commodities. Some original lead delivery brand enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and some enterprises have already pre sold most of their production in August, resulting in low sellable inventory. Refining lead enterprises in Anhui and other regions are gradually resuming production, and with the arrival of imported lead for replenishment, the degree of subsidy for recycled lead has expanded. Since the opening of the import window, the actual import arrivals have been limited, and the channel for converting imported goods into delivery products has not yet been opened in large quantities. The short-term shortage reality and the expectation of surplus in the hospital month. It is expected that the lead ingot market will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in June 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.507 million and 2.554 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and 2.7%, respectively. From January to June 2024, the production and sales of automobiles reached 1.389 million and 14.047 million respectively, an increase of 4.9% and 6.1% year-on-year.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in June 2024 was 639000 tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year. From January to June 2024, China’s lead production was 3.889 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%

International Lead Zinc Research Group ILZSG News: In April 2024, the global lead market experienced a supply shortage of 22600 tons, followed by a shortage of 3400 tons in March. From January to April 2024, there was an oversupply of 7000 tons in the global lead market, compared to a shortage of 7800 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global lead ore production was 365100 tons in May 2024. From January to May 2024, the global lead ore production was 1.8111 million tons. In May 2024, the global refined lead production was 1.1079 million tons, with a consumption of 1.0939 million tons and an oversupply of 14000 tons. From January to May 2024, the global refined lead production was 5.5297 million tons, with a consumption of 5.4181 million tons and a surplus supply of 111600 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9521.67 yuan/ton on July 12th and 9475.00 yuan/ton on July 19th, an increase of 0.49%. The current price has increased by 19.81% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly decreased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, and the recent market trend has slightly declined. International oil prices have fluctuated, with a significant decline in the pure benzene market and poor cost support, while the styrene market has risen to a relatively high level. Spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand, and downstream resistance to high price levels is slightly evident, resulting in a slight decline in the styrene market. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is 9510-9550 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect

Recently, the overall trend of pure benzene has continued to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu Province continues to rise, with a total inventory of 44000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons or 46.67% compared to the previous period’s inventory of 30000 tons. The downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene has increased, and it is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. As of July 19th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8500 yuan/ton. At present, the downward trend of pure benzene market has slightly stopped, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will mainly decline slightly in late July.

Supply side

In July, there were many inspections of the styrene plant, and the overall production of styrene plants in China was 297000 tons, an increase of 2600 tons from the previous period’s 294400 tons. Styrene inventory has slightly increased, with limited negative impact.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream producers of styrene have experienced mixed fluctuations. Among them, the EPS market is stable, with large fluctuations in manufacturer quotes and poor downstream demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and transactions are average. In early July, domestic ABS prices showed a narrow upward trend. The main terminal demand for ABS is weak. Some home appliance manufacturers are on vacation and have stopped work, resulting in lower overall load levels for downstream factories and weak stocking operations that prioritize basic needs. Last week, traders were forced to sell at high prices under the cover of producers. Currently, the market momentum has returned to calm, and the speed of supply flow has decreased. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market. The PS market fluctuated and fell. Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 reported 10400 yuan/ton, PH88 reported 10700 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P reported 9750 yuan/ton, 622P reported 10550 yuan/ton

The styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current pure benzene market continues to decline, with weak cost support and weak spot demand for styrene, resulting in poor market transactions. Shengyi Society analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly experience a slight decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottle grade increased in early July, with an average price of 7230 yuan/ton as of July 12th.

Raw material market: On July 11th, there was no significant bullish or bearish driving force for cost and self supply and demand, and PTA spot prices tended to fluctuate. On the afternoon of July 11th, MEG futures fluctuated, with a basis difference of 35-40 compared to the 09 contract. This week’s trading was close to 4810 and the delivery was around 4805.

The recent decline in international oil prices has dragged down the prices of polyester dual raw materials. Due to insufficient cost support and low industry processing fees, major polyester bottle chip manufacturers have started to raise prices and reduce production to ensure processing fees. As a result, market prices have risen and processing fees have relatively recovered.

The current factory price for PET water bottle grade is hovering between 7250 yuan and 7450 yuan. For the goods to be delivered from July to August, the ex factory price negotiated by the buyer and seller ranges from 7100 yuan to 7200 yuan. The export quotation for polyester bottle flakes is also stable, with an initial quotation of $920 to $940 per ton FOB China main port for goods shipped from July to August. However, in actual negotiations, the price has fallen back to the range of $910 to $930 per ton FOB China main port.

Business Society PET analyst believes that the PET market is expected to maintain its current trend in the short term.

monitoring data from Business Society, the market offer on June 21st was 8320 yuan/ton, and on June 27th it was 8270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%.

The price of phenol in East China of Sinopec is 8350 yuan/ton, while the price of phenol in North China of Sinopec is 8300-8350 yuan/ton. The factory prices are firm, and the operating rate of the phenol ketone unit has not fluctuated much, maintaining around 70%.

In terms of supply, the total quantity of phenol arriving at the port in East China is 42000 tons. Please pay attention to the subsequent shipment situation.

Downstream bisphenol A is operating steadily, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China ranging from 9850 to 10000 yuan/ton. Overall, market trading is limited. The cost side pure benzene market is operating steadily, with a reference price of 9367 yuan/ton. Some companies in Shandong Refining adhere to the price, and the transaction situation is not volatile.

From the perspective of the Business Society, the parking and maintenance plans for Qingdao Bay and Shanghai Xisa Storage need to be monitored, and after the phenol export is released at the end of the month, the import volume needs to be supplemented. There is not much pressure on the market supply side, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipping in early July is not high. From the terminal perspective, there is still strong demand, and there is not much change in demand. It is expected that the market range will adjust and operate next week.