1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA66 in 2019 is different from that in 2018. This year, the weak spot price of PA66 fell. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main color of domestic PA66 market in 2019. As of December 25, the average price of PA66′s mainstream offers was about 23050.00 yuan / ton, down 36.24% from the beginning of the year.

Analysis of influencing factors:

At the beginning of the year, Ineos, a European Petrochemical producer, declared Force Majeure for its acrylonitrile plants. The company announced that the ACN supply of its plant in green lake, Texas, encountered force majeure, with a capacity of 545000 tons / year. Previously, the company also announced that the supply of ACN at its plant in hill Sanders, UK, suffered force majeure, with a capacity of 280000 tons / year. In addition, Taiwan Formosa Plastics and Thailand PTT Asahi chemical also have their own maintenance plans in spring. This led to an increase in the spot price of acrylonitrile at that time. Affected by the rising cost side, it is generally considered that the good is the support. However, all this happened in the environment of weak demand for PA66, which further reduced the profits of the chip factory by adding the cost side pressure to the already difficult PA66.

After the adipic acid festival in the upstream, the downstream returned to work at a peak, the demand improved, and the offer picked up. However, in the first half of the year, the supply continued to be abundant. Although the cost of pure benzene rose intermittently, the overall performance of the market was weak and negative. The stock pressure is general, the on-site operators have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and they need more space for negotiation. In the first half of this year, the main theme of the imbalance between supply and demand of PA66 slices remained unchanged, and the downstream factories continued to be weak in taking goods. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, the traders go with the market, and the trading is difficult. Most of the year’s decline was completed in the first half of the year, and the domestic brand PA66 fell nearly 23.96% in the first half of the year.

At the end of August and the beginning of September, Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the notice on adjusting the key projects in 2019, mainly involving the adjustment of key projects in and out. One million ton PC polycarbonate project of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was withdrawn, and the 200000 ton nylon 66 new material project of Tianchen Qixiang announced on July 25 was added. This year, Tianchen Qi Xiang is the industrial technology giant who broke the monopoly of PA66 raw materials and founded the first adiponitrile project in Zibo. After the completion of Tianchen Qixiang’s industrial base, it will break the technology monopoly of foreign countries, end the blank of domestic technology industry and the history that adiponitrile relies on import and its pricing is controlled by people. However, this good news makes PA66 practitioners feel complicated. The shift of Shandong key projects to nylon 66 means that PA66′s production capacity continues to expand. Now, the technical barriers of adiponitrile have been solved, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced in the future. It is expected to be a long-term impact on China’s PA66 market. Under the background of the imbalance of supply and demand, the market trend is difficult.

The following traditional peak season “golden nine silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The spot supply of PA66 market continued to be abundant, and the downstream factories just needed to take the goods, but the demand did not improve and continued to be weak. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, and the trading is more flexible and detailed. In the middle of the third quarter, the US tariff delayed to release the good news, the terminal market temperature in the peak season was good, the periodic price recovery of adipic acid market surged, all of which were overshadowed by the imbalance of supply and demand, and the overall impact on PA66 market was limited. Combined with the decline of PA66 this year, it is felt that the long-term trend of increasing competition in the industry.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the market of PA66 in 2019 is weak and stable after falling. The reason is that this year’s macroeconomic situation is really not good, and the downward pressure on the economy is obvious. The trade friction between China and the United States has a great impact on the trading atmosphere of the commodity market. But the main reason is that the business club believes that the price of PA66 market experienced a sharp rise last year, and the cost end of downstream factories was under too much pressure, which led to a significant reduction in the whole downstream demand this year, as well as in the engineering plastics field, spinning field, ties and other fields. In addition, adipic acid has limited support on the cost side. The intermediate hexanedionitrile broke the monopoly, and the capacity expansion was negative on the cost side of PA66. Multiple factors have led to oversupply in the overall market since this year, presenting a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The market is short of buying gas, and the industry tends to wait and see. At present, the cost pressure of domestic polymerization plants is still large, and the situation is relatively difficult. Its impact is likely to cause PA66′s mid – and long-term market to improve.

Commodity index: on December 20, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.81% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 20, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton. In the middle of this month, the price slightly increased by 0.1%, with a small range.

Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; however, it has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the mid day; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day; since the second half of the year, propylene According to the market trend of nitrile, its high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be lowered in a step-by-step manner in October. The overall five-month reduction was about 2000-3000 yuan / ton, with a shock range of about 15%. This month, the market shock first went up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice last week and stopped production until January 1, 2020. The manufacturer has relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan and the increase of freight cost, the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer has increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the construction in winter determines that the downstream procurement has little impact on the price of raw materials, and the price reduction in the middle of the year is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production cost; the current impact on the market is the environmental protection control, the manufacturer in Gongyi, Henan Province stops production, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the transportation cost leads to the general increase of the price. To sum up, polyacrylamide will maintain a small fluctuation trend in the future market, and pay attention to the stock situation in the future market and the requirements of environmental protection after new year’s day.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is temporarily stable this week, with a quotation of 1700.00 yuan / ton, down 14.40% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 79.07 on December 20.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong have risen and fallen. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1680 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: at present, the domestic market has a general trading atmosphere, the manufacturer continues to ship orders in advance, and the sales pressure is relatively small. The demand is light, the agricultural dealers still wait and see the majority, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have low enthusiasm for replenishment, and the rubber plate factory starts at a low level. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable and weak. Next, we may focus on the bidding situation in India.

Industry chain: upstream products as a whole seem to have declined slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 4213.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.50%, compared with the same period of last year, down 22.67%; the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3256.67 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the same period of last year, overall, the urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 6000.00 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of the downstream rubber plate plant has a negative impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers throw in advance orders, so the sales pressure of manufacturers is relatively small; however, the demand is still weak. In addition to the low starting level of rubber plate manufacturers, the industrial demand has also declined, and the amount of agricultural fertilizer preparation is not large. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.

1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week (12.16-20), the domestic adipic acid market did not change much, maintaining a narrow adjustment pattern, and maintaining the price level of last week. As of last weekend, the mainstream price was generally 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the market situation of adipic acid has stabilized, and the prices in most regions have not changed much. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation, and the benefits of cost have not been transmitted in time. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern, the rebound rate of this month is 8% as of December 20, but the conduction effect of cost is lagging behind, which does not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. It is expected that the price of adipic acid will follow up at the end of the month due to the rise of cost side.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, year ago, the downstream procurement was not strong, and most of the procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. In December, the nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the health news agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. This month, the market trend was stable Weekly prices fell slightly, with a range of – 0.16% (as shown in the figure above). PA66′s recent market still hasn’t improved. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor that makes it difficult for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will remain stable years ago. In the middle and later stages, it is unlikely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, because the upstream pure benzene price has risen, with the cost effect transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may appear small The market rebounded.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average domestic PVC mainstream price on December 12 was 7052.5 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the average domestic PVC mainstream price of 7087.5 yuan / ton on Thursday (05), up 7.26% compared with the same period last year. On December 12, the PVC commodity index was 89.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 53.37% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: since November, PVC has been pushing up for several weeks. Recently, it has become stable and weak, and the heat has gradually subsided. Recently, the overall starting load of PVC enterprises has increased. After the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods has increased slightly, but the overall situation is still tight. The actual trading atmosphere is not warm, and the market transaction price is mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. Due to the rigid demand of the downstream procurement multi-dimensional system and the cautious wait-and-see attitude, the quotation of the merchants is mostly adjusted according to their own conditions, which is a little loose, resulting in a narrow range of PVC price consolidation and a small drop in price. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 12, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6700-7130 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7100-7200 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7100-7220 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 7320-7420 yuan / ton. Prices across the region were high and consolidated, with some prices down slightly.

Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection in the northern heating season, Hebei started a class II response to heavy pollution weather, and some downstream product enterprises also had the news of production reduction, increased production suspension, and limited demand for PVC. In addition, the previous weeks pushed up, and the price of PVC has been pushed to a high level in the off-season. At present, the main reason is to digest the previous increase. In the absence of obvious favorable fundamentals, the upward trend of PVC lacks practical support The weak trend is expected.

Futures: Recently, PVC market fell. Now the main contract has been converted from 01 to 05. The price difference between 01 contract and spot contract is large, and part of the forecast will be repaired. On the 11th, the main contract fell in the night of 2005, closing at 6570 yuan / ton (- 25), and the position increased by 2838 to 379000. Futures closed at 6550 on the night of December 12, down 5, opening high and going low.

News: in November 2019, the domestic PVC output was 1641700 tons, an increase of 0.29% month on month and 1.03% year on year.

 
Industry chain: crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate broadly in the near future, and ethylene market will fall. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The enthusiasm of PVC downstream products enterprises is not high, affected by environmental protection, the production is increasing, and the demand for PVC is limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 12, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including pet (1.16%) and PA66 (0.06%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, PC (- 1.78%) and PP (- 1.21%), respectively. The average price of this day was – 0.11%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: Recently, PVC futures have fallen sharply, and the spot market is also fluctuating and falling. At present, the inventory is still at a low level, and the prices of most manufacturers are still firm. It is difficult to completely change the tight supply of goods in a short time. It is expected that in the short term, the high consolidation of PVC will be the main thing, and the prices of some enterprises will be fine tuned. However, with the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods will increase, and downstream demand will increase Limited and other factors, the aftermarket may be under pressure.

I. price trend

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the phosphoric acid market recovered from a high level and fell in a step-by-step manner. According to the large data list of business association, the average price of phosphoric acid on October 1 was 5500 yuan / ton, and on December 13 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 3.33% in the fourth quarter. On December 13, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.49% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: since October, the price of phosphoric acid market has been stable and downward, and the whole market is weak. The average price fell 3.03% in October, slightly fluctuated in the middle of November, and the price was temporarily stable. As of December 13, the average price fell slightly by 0.31%, with a quarterly decline of 3.33%. At present, the market performance of phosphoric acid in the fourth quarter is average, and the market is weak. Due to the rising cost of raw materials in the third quarter, the phosphoric acid industry as a whole rose, and the price has been in a high consolidation state. However, the price of phosphoric acid in this year is higher than that in previous years. In the fourth quarter, the start-up of phosphoric acid market is on the low side, the yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is tight, the price of phosphoric acid is supported by the cost side, and the attitude of the industry is not active. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the demand is less, and the downstream demand is not followed up enough, and the trading is And it is expected that there is no plan to store goods in the downstream, and the purchase is just needed, and there are few new orders for merchants. Compared with the general market of thermal phosphoric acid, wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good. Because the production process and process cost of wet process phosphoric acid are lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, the corresponding market quotation is lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, which has a high market acceptance. In the near future, the goods are better, and most of the downstream products are willing to choose wet process phosphoric acid with low price at the end of the year. As of December 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5316.67 yuan / ton, Hubei Xingfa group quoted 5500 yuan / ton, Wengfu Dazhou quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Guangxi Mingli group quoted 5550 yuan / ton, Sichuan KANGLONG chemical quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Sichuan Yida quoted 4700 yuan / ton. Prices across the region are generally weak, stable and consolidated, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the market is generally weak.

Industry chain: in winter, the production of the mine itself is limited, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the overall phosphorus ore market will still be weak and stable in the near future. Recently, the overall market of yellow phosphorus trading is light, and the price is slightly lower. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory. The phosphate market started to increase, while prices were temporarily stable and rising.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, phosphoric acid has been in a high consolidation state in the near future. The price is higher than that of previous years. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate is low, the downstream demand is reduced, the on-site trading is flat, and the wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good for shipment, but the overall market is still weak. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term, with some downside risks.

I. price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 15300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: titanium dioxide market price is stable this week. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 14600-15800 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan / ton. This week, dragon enterprises held a meeting to maintain the stability of prices. The main business of each cargo holder is collection and business volume. The market competition may be more and more fierce. In the case of strong titanium ore, titanium dioxide market has been stable, and the market price is single.

Industrial chain: the price of titanium concentrate in Western Panzhihua kept stable this week. The supply of imported titanium ore is tight and the market price is high. Panzhihua titanium ore price consolidation mainly. At present, the price of 38 titanium ore is 820-840 yuan / ton, 46, 10 titanium ore is 1260-1320 yuan / ton, 47, 20 titanium ore is 1300-1350 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: this week’s titanium dioxide prices have stabilized, but the overall price is still low, and the market is off-season. Near the end of the year, the shippers charged more business volume and collection. In the short term, the market price of titanium dioxide has been stable and the fluctuation range is not large. The actual operation is a single discussion.

I. price trend

Caprolactam has continued to decline since the beginning of winter, with a 15.08% drop now, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11066 yuan / ton, and on December 6, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10700 yuan / ton. This week, the price dropped 3.31%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on December 6 is 53.82, which is flat with yesterday, 46.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 0.64% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline this week due to weak terminal demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10300 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industry chain: the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak, the confidence in the industry is insufficient, the terminal procurement is cautious, and the market is down. At present, trading is cold and weak in the short term. Domestic pure benzene market, East China pure benzene market remains firm, import market negotiation goes up, domestic trade negotiation reference 5400-5450 yuan / ton, far month goods negotiation is 5200-5350 yuan / ton, on-site wait-and-see increase, external price increase does not produce effective boost, downstream weak support is insufficient. Domestic PA6 spot price this week is temporarily stable. The spot source supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient. At present, the domestic PA6 production and trade e-commerce companies offer low-level operation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business club think: the upstream raw material cost pressure is still on, the downstream slice market atmosphere is cold, the production and sales are flat, and the demand side has not changed. Although the equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarted one after another, there is still resistance. It is expected that the decline of caprolactam will gradually slow down in the later period, with low consolidation as the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to raw material market and terminal demand.

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by o-phthalic method in China was 6312.5 yuan / ton, 0.20% higher than the price of 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 19.07% year on year.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China increased slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fluctuated. The downstream factories maintained just need to purchase, the factory inventory pressure remained, high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5800-6000 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are on the market The price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly after the transfer out of the plant.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

This week, the downstream DOP price rose slightly, the price of isooctanol declined, and the cost of DOP raw materials remained stable. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7300-7550 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is normal, in addition to the upstream ox price, affected by the cost, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period, but the increase range is limited.

I. price trend

This week, the propane market is generally stable, with individual manufacturers mainly adjusting to their own conditions. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4057.5 yuan / ton, down 0.12% in the week, down 9.08% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is fair. As of November 29, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4040 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4180 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4150 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4030 yuan / ton.

Propane rose and fell in different ways this week, with the market generally stable, and manufacturers mainly made minor adjustments based on their own shipping situation. In the early part of the week, the international crude oil rose slightly and the cost of imported gas landed rose slightly. In addition, the civil gas market rose strongly, supporting the refinery mentality, and the price remained stable. This week, the weather is cooling down, and the market just needs to consume more. The news is beneficial to the multi industry mentality, which plays a certain role in supporting the propane Market. In addition, CP price was released in December at the end of the month, and propane butane increased by 10 USD / ton, which is good for the market. Individual manufacturers pushed up slightly. Downstream rigid demand entered the market to replenish goods, and the market transaction atmosphere was OK.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

According to propane analysts of business agency, CP price rose slightly in December, which is good for market mentality, and civil gas trend is strong and up, which supports the market. At present, seasonal factors have a strong impact, the weather is gradually cold, there is just a need for replenishment demand in the downstream, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and it is expected that next week’s trend may be upward.

According to statistics, in November, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price decreased slightly. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 6800 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price of domestic PX market was 6700 yuan / ton. The price trend decreased by 1.29%, 32.88% year-on-year. The external price of PX remained low and fluctuated. The external dependence of domestic PX market was high, and the domestic price trend of low external price was slightly lower.

In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined slightly. The domestic PX operation rate is about 80%. The 600000 ton new petrochemical plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been put into production. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable. The first line of Fuhai Chuang plant has been started. The operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal. The operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load. Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation Petrochemical plant operation is stable, Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and domestic market price is slightly lower. Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the external price of PX fluctuated in November. As of 28, the closing price of Asia was 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, several PX units in Asia are still under maintenance. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX is low Negative domestic market, domestic p-xylene market price slightly lower.

In November, the closing price of international crude oil fluctuated. As of the 28th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $58.11/barrel and Brent crude oil futures market was $63.87/barrel. The closing price of crude oil has been maintained between $55-60 / barrel. The cost support for downstream petrochemical products is limited, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is slightly lower.

In November, the price trend of the downstream PTA market declined slightly. As of the 29th, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated to be around 4700-4800 yuan. In the futures market, the main futures of PTA fell in shock, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4726 yuan / ton. After the buyback of suppliers, another 1.1 million tons of Dushan energy line was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, the downstream is cautious in purchasing, and there is a weakening expectation. The spot market lacks clear positive news support. The price keeps falling. In November, PTA starts at more than 90%, polyester starts at about 87%, and the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms starts at about 71%. The current terminal weaving factory has a relatively common new order, and the inventory pressure of weaving products is still there. In addition, the raw material market Limited market support, multiple negative drag, downstream and terminal factories to maintain just need to replenish, have taken negative hedging measures, PX market price trend fell slightly.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the recent crude oil price trend is volatile, and the downstream PTA Market operating rate remains at a high level of 90%, but the PTA market price is slightly lower. At present, the PTA plant is newly put into operation, and the supply will gradually accumulate, and the downstream polyester production is expected to reduce, especially from late December to January, there is a large area maintenance plan for the polyester plant, and the PX market price is expected to be later Grid may maintain low volatility.

I. price trend

In November, the market price of NBR was weak. According to the monitoring of business association, the price of NBR at the beginning of the month was 17066 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 16000 yuan / ton, down 6.25% compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market trend analysis

Sufficient supply of NBR

According to the business association, in November, the main domestic nitrile manufacturers basically started normal operation, and the overall operation rate of domestic nitrile rubber was nearly 80%. The market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of nitrile enterprises and traders have been reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 30, the price of domestic NBR in Shaanxi is stable. At present, the mainstream market of Lanhua NBR n41 is about 14000 yuan / ton, 3305 is about 14900 yuan / ton, 3308 is about 15600 yuan / ton, and downstream inquiry is on demand.

Raw material price shocks and consolidation weaken the support of NBR

In November, the raw material butadiene was shaken and consolidated, which weakened the support for nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in early November was 9123 yuan / ton, which fell to 8537 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and 8834 yuan / ton in the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 3.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the amplitude at the higher point was 6.42% higher than that at the lower point of the month.

It is difficult for the downstream demand to improve, which will drag down the NBR

At present, there is no significant increase in the orders of downstream terminal plants, the demand for NBR is still light, and the stock volume is not much, dragging the overall NBR market.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is low, on the other hand, the demand for NBR is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of NBR will continue to be weak in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China at the beginning of the week was 676.67 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price at the weekend was 640.00 yuan / ton, down 36.67 yuan / ton, down 5.42%, 54.61% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market continued to be weak, the downstream demand was sluggish, the terminal purchase enthusiasm was weak, the external support was weak, the port inventory continued to increase, the consumption was slow, the industry was bearish on the future market, the market wait-and-see mood remained unchanged, and the negotiation atmosphere was cold. At present, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China market is 520-660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 470-630 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong market is about 700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China market is 590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 510-540 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market behaves in a differentiated operation, with market ups and downs showing each other. The supply of smelting acid in Shandong Province is increasing, the acid price is greatly reduced, and some acid enterprises are flexible to increase according to the inventory. Affected by the environmental protection and transportation inspection, the transportation is inconvenient, and the prices in Henan, Shanxi and other places are lower. In North China, the peak shifting production orders were issued in many heating seasons. In addition, the demand follow-up was insufficient. The sulfuric acid market was still weak in terms of supply, and the support of market good news was limited. It is expected that the price market will be sorted out and operated.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%).

III. future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business association, at present, the sulfur market continues to consolidate its weakness, lacks the guidance of substantive information on the market, and has a strong wait-and-see mood. In the absence of obvious changes in the supply and demand situation, the short-term sulfur market is expected to maintain its weakness and stability.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week was stable. In the week, the average market price in East China was 1713.33 yuan / ton by the end of the week, down 26.67 yuan / ton, or 0.96%, compared with the weekend price last year, down 19.31% year-on-year. On November 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 87.86, the same as yesterday, down 25.45% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.13% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic soda price has remained stable as a whole this week, the market continues to be weak and downward, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream of light soda is purchased on demand, flexible trading, at present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light soda is 1450-1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream terminal price of domestic heavy soda is 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The heavy alkali market is mainly consolidated, the focus of market transaction is smooth operation, there is no obvious price adjustment for the quoted enterprises, the delivery situation of the manufacturers is acceptable, the delivery pressure of the soda ash manufacturers increases, and the manufacturers mostly implement the end of month pricing.

In terms of supply: domestic soda market is oversupplied, market trading atmosphere is cold, traders are cautious, and actual trading is deadlocked. The starting load of Dalian Dahua plant will gradually increase, and the output will gradually increase in the later period, and some areas will be affected; the unit starting rate of the enterprise will reach about 84% in the week, and the maintenance enterprise will not have a substantial impact on the production capacity. In addition, the northwest region will be affected by the weather, which will bring a lot of inconvenience to the traffic in the snow season, and the freight will be increased, which will be unfavorable to the soda enterprise’s shipment; on the other hand, pure There is no pressure from environmental protection policies in alkali enterprises, which leads to the continuous increase of enterprise inventory. Therefore, the stock pressure of the manufacturers is still there, and the traders hold the wait-and-see state, so the soda ash market as a whole is not optimistic.

Demand: limited by environmental protection factors, the demand for light soda ash from terminal products is weak, and there is no incremental demand or improvement for heavy soda affected by stable production of glass. The market of glass enterprises is not optimistic, the downstream just needs to pick up goods, and the industry procurement is stable, so it is difficult to make a breakthrough. Under the influence of environmental protection, the starting load of downstream enterprises tends to be weak and stable.

III. future forecast

Analysts of soda ash business association believe that: the demand in the downstream of soda ash is limited, the market is not optimistic, and under the influence of cost pressure, the market oversupply reduces the price. On the other hand, the downstream maintains a rigid demand for replenishment, with a stalemate wait-and-see focus. At present, the manufacturer has a lot of inventory, a lot of shipping pressure and imbalance between supply and demand. In the short term, it is difficult to improve the downstream demand. The market trend is under pressure. It is expected that the market situation of soda ash will remain weak in the short term, depending on the inventory situation and the downstream market demand.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the weak consolidation operation of pure benzene this week has basically stabilized the price. The price of pure benzene on Friday is 5250-5400 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the port inventory of pure benzene is low this week, and the spot supply is tight to support the pure benzene market. However, the downstream profit level is low, which limits the recovery of pure benzene market.

2. Crude oil: this week’s crude oil fluctuated broadly. Affected by OPEC’s possible extension of production reduction period, the overall oil price is higher than last week. WTI was up 1.3% and Brent was up 1.95% compared with November 15. But at present, crude oil price has little influence on the price of pure benzene.

3. Related industries: downstream styrene fell 1.13% after rising this week; aniline enterprises reduced price to promote shipment, down 6.64% this week. The price of aniline was high last month and the profit was large, but this month’s consecutive decline of aniline hit the pure benzene market.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the next week, production reduction activities will support the rise of oil prices, but economic data and other constraints on oil prices may continue the pattern of shocks.

2. Domestic market: at present, the overall supply and demand of pure benzene market are weak, and the sense of market direction is not strong. In addition, the supply of hydrogenated benzene in North China will resume, and Zhejiang Petrochemical will soon pilot production, which may increase the impact on the pure benzene Market in the future.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the short-term pure benzene will still be weak in the overall operation.

I. price trend

The overall operating atmosphere of EPS market is poor, some prices in the spot market continue to decline, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand, while the upstream and downstream fail to provide sufficient support for the spot market.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, common material quotation is 9100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Hairong EPS in Dongying is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9200 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

The EPS market is generally stable. At present, it is difficult to effectively improve the market’s dull atmosphere. The quotation is stable and slightly adjusted. The downstream market is still weak in buying and the actual transaction is deadlocked. It is expected that EPS market will still have the possibility of narrow range and weak consolidation operation

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China at the weekend was 6425.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price fell 7.05% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: at present, the consolidation trend of potash market is dominated by the consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride price, which has no supporting effect on the price of potash. The market of potash is relatively stable, while the demand side is weak, which restrains the price increase, and the price adjustment range is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchase is general, and the quotation is mainly consolidated. According to the statistics of business agency: in November, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that the trading atmosphere of potash market is cold and difficult to close. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene rose this week after falling. The price of pure benzene fell in 5050-5400 yuan / ton last Friday, and the price of pure benzene was 5250-5400 yuan / ton this Friday, up 0.18% compared with last Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the market demand for pure benzene at the beginning of the week was weak, and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

2. Crude oil: this week’s crude oil range fluctuated, affected by economic data, progress of trade negotiations and US crude oil inventory. WTI was up 1% and Brent was up 2.46% compared with November 8.

3. Related industries: this week’s downstream styrene fell 2.63%; aniline rose or fell 9.96% this week. Depressed downstream market, limit the growth of pure benzene.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price may continue to fluctuate.

2. Domestic market: the supply and demand of coking industry has been improved, the support surface of hydrogenated benzene is strong, and the subsequent driving force is still strong. In addition, the port inventory is low, and the spot market supply is tight, which has strong support for the bottom of pure benzene. But at present, the profit of downstream enterprises is small, the demand is weak, and the increase is limited.

Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will rise slightly in the later period driven by the market.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has declined after rising recently, showing a peak trend. At the beginning of the week (November 11), the average price of enterprises is 7321 yuan / ton. On Wednesday and Thursday, the average price of enterprises is 7399 yuan / ton. At the end of the week (November 17), the average price of enterprises is 7316 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.06% and a weekly amplitude of 1.13%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the price began to rise by 150-200 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price began to maintain stability. On the twelfth day, the price of the enterprise recovered. On the fourteenth, the price of the enterprise began to decline. At present, the market turnover is still around 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7250 yuan / ton. Propylene inventory is still low.

Industry chain: upstream, the overall market of international crude oil market is relatively ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. In the downstream, the demand for shutdown and maintenance of some downstream units in Shandong Province has decreased, which has a negative impact on propylene market.

Recently, PP spot market fell slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.59%, which had little impact on propylene.

The price of acrylic acid in China is stable this week, which has no impact on the price of propylene.

Propylene oxide has stabilized after a small rise in recent days, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. The market is average, which has a slight effect on propylene market.

However, epichlorohydrin prices continued to decline sharply this week, with a weekly decline of 9.22% and a daily decline of 11.45% from December to 13th. Its downstream epoxy resin restricted its market. In the short term, it was dominated by weak consolidation, which had a suppressive effect on propylene market.

In recent days, the n-butanol market rose slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.36%, but it was not optimistic in the later stage, with limited impact on propylene.

Octanol prices fell slightly this week, down 0.95%, after the market or low consolidation, little impact on propylene.

Isopropanol prices rose this week by 3.93%, and may continue to rise in the future, but there is limited room to do so, which has a positive impact on propylene market.

Phenol market fell 2.07% this week, with weekly amplitude reaching 3.24%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

Acetone market was up 6.23% this week, and the focus continued to push up, which has a positive effect on propylene.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, in general, the propylene market has declined after rising in recent days, generally maintaining stability. At present, propylene inventory is low, crude oil and PP market are still ideal, but some downstream units are shut down, so it is expected that propylene market price will still be lowered in recent days.

I. price trend

This week’s lead market (11.11-11.15) was slightly lower. The average price in the domestic market was 16125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15825 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.86%.

On November 15, the lead commodity index was 96.31, up 0.11 points from yesterday, down 28.13% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 29.05% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: from Nov. 11 to Nov. 15, the price of Lunzhou lead fell all the way, and it was below the average. This week, Lund’s lead inventory has been reduced by 2900 tons. In terms of Shanghai lead, 1912, the main force of Shanghai lead, was converted into 2001 contract this week. The mainstream price fluctuated between 15660-16100. During this period, it continued to decline after falling below the key position of 16000. At one time, it fell to the vicinity of 15700. Although it tried to rush to a high of 16100, it lacked the support of good news. In the spot market, the mainstream price of spot lead this week was 15750-16150 yuan / ton, which was dragged down by the futures market, and the spot market continued to decline. The market turnover situation was better than last week, but the refinery’s enthusiasm for shipment was not high, and the discount was narrowed. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead general brands had a discount of 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton for the 1912 contract. Market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, Nanfang lead, Henan Yuguang, wanyang, Jinli, etc., and most of them are long single transactions. This week, the market performance of recycled lead was strong, and the price difference with spot lead was further reduced to about 300 yuan / ton. Downstream battery enterprises still mainly purchase recycled lead, but most of them have purchased on demand.

Major domestic events:

A large number of waste lead-acid batteries have entered the black market with huge environmental pollution problems: the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology released the guide for construction and operation of new energy vehicle power battery recycling service outlets (hereinafter referred to as the “guide”) on July 7. The guide clearly requires that new energy vehicle manufacturers should establish collection type recycling service outlets in the administrative areas (at least prefecture level) where new energy vehicles are sold.

Quanzhou will build a waste lead-acid battery collection and transfer project, which will recycle 50000 tons of waste batteries every year. Recently, Quanzhou ecological environment bureau announced the EIA report form of the battery centralized collection and transfer technical transformation project of Quanzhou Kaiying power appliance Co., Ltd., which will be published until November 20, 2019. At the beginning of the plant’s construction in September 2000, Kaiying company had a production scale of 4 million small plates. In 2005, it completed the technical transformation project of 4 million small plates to 4 million large plates. In June 2012, it completed the operation of the battery assembly line. In 2014, after the lead workshop was rebuilt and expanded in different places, the new and old plant areas of Kaiying company were managed independently, and the environmental protection facilities were operated independently.

Nonferrous Industry: this week’s data in Europe and the United States was lower than expected, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

III. future prospects

Next week, the US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, support for base metal repair fell sharply this week, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. The spot lead market is expected to fluctuate in the 15700-16000 range next week.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, the downward atmosphere of PC did not improve, and the weak operation was maintained. Today, the market comprehensive price is 13533.33 yuan / ton.

II. Cause analysis

In terms of products: the high level of domestic PC product inventory is hard to alleviate, the downstream purchase atmosphere is poor, the mentality of the industry is gloomy, the cost pressure of the enterprise is increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. Today, the latest price of Shanghai keschuang is 14550 yuan / ton, the latest price of Luxi Chemical is 12900 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan is 13150 yuan / ton, and the price of injection grade low-end materials in East China market is 13700-16200 RMB / T, and RMB 15800-17800 / T for medium and high-end negotiation.

Industry chain: raw material bisphenol A is running at a low level, the upstream phenol price is low, the cost support is weak, the factory shipping pressure is increasing, and the price of Shandong goods is low, all of which form a certain negative restriction on the market. The negotiation focus is gradually low, and the business purchase is more cautious, and the negotiation focus is continuously low.

On November 11, the rubber and plastic index was 669, the same as yesterday, down 36.89% from 1060 (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.15% from 576, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

III. future forecast

PC analysts of business club believe that the domestic PC market is weak and volatile this week, and it is still difficult to improve the situation of the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1756.67 yuan / ton, down 16.90% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 81.71 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

Product: the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the shutdown and maintenance of the urea equipment in Mingshui chemical industry is expected to reach 15.

Market demand: in recent years, some enterprises have reduced production and overhaul, and the domestic urea enterprises have seen a significant decline in starting work. At present, the operating rate is about 60%, and the daily output is about 120000 tons, the lowest level since 2019. In terms of demand, domestic demand is weak and hard to change. At present, there is no strong support in the domestic market. It is expected that the weak operation of the domestic urea market will prevail before the bid opening in India.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell, and the quotation dropped from 4366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.50%, down 3.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly this week, from 3236.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.62%, down 3.31% year-on-year. Overall, the urea cost support this week is weak 。 However, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 6100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.64%. The general purchasing capacity in the downstream had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of downstream compound fertilizer production has a negative impact on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of November, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Urea analysts of business association believe that the demand for agriculture in Shandong Province has declined, which is weak and hard to change. In addition to the low starting level of compound fertilizer enterprises, the industrial demand has also declined. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will be dominated by low consolidation in the middle of November.

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic melamine market price fell this week, down 1.64% compared with the beginning of the week (November 4), and the mainstream domestic melamine price on November 8 was 5200-5600 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: domestic melamine market price fell this week. Melamine operation rate is at a high level, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the demand is not good. Most downstream manufacturers are cautious in receiving goods and purchasing on demand, most of which focus on wait-and-see. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price (11.4-11.8) of urea in Shandong in the upstream of this week is running smoothly. The upstream liquid ammonia price (11.4-11.8) fell slightly, down 0.62%. Downstream papermaking, plate, molding plastics and other industries started in a downturn, the actual demand is still poor, and the confidence of the industry is insufficient.

3. Future forecast:

Melamine analysts of the business association believe that the price of raw urea is stable this week, the price of liquid ammonia is slightly lower, and the cost is slightly weakened in the face of melamine support. The domestic melamine operation rate is at a high level. Due to the weak downstream demand and limited digestion capacity of melamine sources, it is expected that the domestic melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream raw material price changes.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 began to improve this month, and the situation of price falling again and again improved. On October 31, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 14166.67 yuan / ton, 14333.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (08), down 1.16% in the month, down 23.42% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: R22 market of refrigerant market began to improve in October, mainly due to the limited quota of manufacturers and the decline of overall operating rate of the industry, which led to the rise of prices. The overall trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline, and the delivery situation of on-site manufacturers was still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintained a high operating rate, the domestic spot supply was sufficient, some manufacturers continued to reduce the factory price, and the cost was negative in the face of refrigerant. Near the end of the month, R22 production and domestic sales quotas are tightening, some manufacturers have maintenance plans, market supply is further reduced, small packaging is in short supply, and some businesses are out of stock, so quotation is suspended. According to the data monitoring of Yishe, as of October 31, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 13500 yuan / ton, and that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, with the price concentrated around 12500 yuan / ton – 16500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, the operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the situation of goods in hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the market price keeps falling. The domestic trichloromethane market of upstream products continues to maintain a low level. At present, the trichloromethane market is in the traditional off-season and the price remains low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%) There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%) This week’s average was – 0.61%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, R22 manufacturers are affected by quota restrictions, and some manufacturers’ maintenance plans. The market supply is reduced, and traders’ enthusiasm for hoarding is increased. R22 quotation shows a stable upward trend, and it is expected that the refrigerant R22 market will be stronger in the short term.

In October, the domestic liquid ammonia market performance was sluggish and the price fell. At the end of the month, some regions recovered slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the drop of the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong was 1.32%, the overall market atmosphere was relatively low, and the market expectation for the later period was low.

In terms of supply, the overall supply of liquid ammonia Market in October was loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise was slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions. However, the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. As the liquid ammonia plant in Hubei Province enters the recovery period in the middle and late ten days, the price of liquid ammonia has declined. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic.

In terms of demand, the demand for liquid ammonia in October is relatively weak. First of all, the downstream operating rate remains low, and under the double pressure of environmental protection and safety, the operating rate of some chemical enterprises continues to be low, and the sales progress of compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, and the production enthusiasm is not high, especially when small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises stop production or reduce production. The purchase volume of raw liquid ammonia is very high In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the demand of phosphate compound fertilizer has entered the window period, the fertilizer land in autumn market has gradually shrunk, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand for liquid ammonia has shrunk. At the same time, Hubei Province, which accounts for 40% of the production capacity of phosphate fertilizer enterprises, is partly affected by the military games and has a large production limit.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of October 27, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5550.00 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, or 2.63% compared with 5700.00 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the week (October 21), and down 29.15% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, fell sharply, while the price of methanol fell sharply. The demand for acetic anhydride is general, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride is stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, customers purchase on demand, the overall market of acetic anhydride is more negative than positive, and the market of acetic anhydride is under great pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and it was negative for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises has dropped significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride market decline is great.

In terms of methanol, methanol fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride produced by methanol method fell, and the market of acetic anhydride in the future was negative. Overall, acetic anhydride raw materials were negative significantly, and it is expected that the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market will increase.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride dropped significantly, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was insufficient; as for downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was general, downstream customers purchased on demand, and the demand for acetic anhydride was limited, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was insufficient. On the whole, the pressure of acetic anhydride decline is increasing, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will mainly fall in the future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOP price has stabilized after a small drop this week, and the plasticizer market has remained weak and stable. As of October 25, the price of DOP in East China was 7466.67 yuan / ton, down 133.33 yuan / ton, or 1.75% compared with 7600.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (October 21), and down 24.32% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name, port, price of this week, price of last week, price rise and fall, price type, unit

DOP China 930.00 940.00-10.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00-10.00 CFR USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell this week, and DOP’s market was negative. This week, the price of DOP in China was 930.00 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 10 dollars / ton compared with that of last week; the price of DOP in Southeast Asia was 1140 dollars / ton, a decrease of 10 dollars / ton compared with that of last week, and the price of plasticizer DOP fell, which was negative for domestic plasticizer Market.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell this week, but the decline slowed down. After the price of octanol fell, it stabilized. The overall cost of DOP fell, but the decline slowed down. The price of DOP fell in shock, but the downward pressure in the future weakened, and the market in the future of DOP was weak.

In terms of downstream demand, this week’s PVC market remained stable, while the downstream demand of DOP was stable, with insufficient upward momentum. The downstream PVC market fluctuated and remained stable, the demand for DOP was general, the overall good for the future DOP market was insufficient, and the momentum for the future DOP to rise was insufficient.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the decline of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP this week slowed down, the price of isooctanol stabilized after a small drop, the cost of DOP decreased but the space for decline was limited, the price of PVC remained stable, the demand for DOP was not good enough, and the momentum of DOP market was insufficient. The overall plasticizer DOP market decline pressure still exists, but it has been alleviated to some extent. The lack of upward momentum is difficult to support the DOP market recovery. It is expected that the future DOP market will be weak and stable.

As of the 25th, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9640 yuan / ton. Since the late July, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, with an overall decline of 20%. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 9. About RMB 000-9500 / ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant operates stably, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the market of hydrofluoric acid is not good, and the market price keeps falling.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is more than 60%. Enterprises report that there is sufficient stock supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site at present, and the situation of goods distribution in the site in the near future is poor. In the near future, due to the poor downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to decline. In the near future, the start-up of downstream refrigerant product units is at a low level, and the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is generally, the operation rate of R22 refrigerants is 50%, and the operation rate of R22 market devices is temporarily stable. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water in stock, most of which are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual demand side of the market changes little, and the shipping market is general. The price trend of R134a market in China is not good, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low, the market demand for refrigerants is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps declining due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand. Recently, affected by the common negative effects of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell by as much as 20% in three months.

The price trend of fluorite can be seen clearly from the price trend chart. According to statistics, the average price of fluorite in China as of October 25 is 2877.78 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite has declined by 8.64% since the middle of July. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 27 yuan / ton. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3000 yuan / ton.

In the middle of July, the price trend of domestic fluorite began to decline. First, the national environmental protection inspection showed that the operation rate of fluorite was average. In 2019, some domestic mines and flotation units were shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite in the site normal. Some goods holding businesses still had a strong price intention. The price drop of domestic fluorite was relatively low compared with the price of hydrofluoric acid. Second, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is sluggish, and the demand for upstream is poor. Fluorite price is affected by the downturn. Recently, the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant market are declining, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the price of domestic fluorite is lower. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite market in the North declines, and the price of fluorite market has some support, so there is little room for the price of fluorite to fall.

In the past three months, the market price of R22 in the refrigerant market has been greatly reduced. Major air-conditioning manufacturers have been overhauling in succession, with low demand. In addition, due to the influence of quotas, the market supply is normal, and the refrigerant price is constantly falling. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer starts high, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the industry is optimistic. According to the data monitoring of Yishe society, as of October 25, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16000 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. is 13300 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated in 12500 yuan / ton – 14000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of fluorite market and downstream refrigerant industry, fluorite price remains firm, and R22 price has the potential of bottoming and rebounding. However, hydrofluoric acid market supply is sufficient, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will maintain a low volatility trend in the later period.

I. price trend

PS market trend is generally stable, with some small losses. The demand of downstream factories is not smooth and there are not many transactions. Traders are more cautious in operation, some of them still intend to ship goods. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9550-10700 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 10500-12000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS, 525, is 9800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS, 525, is 9600 yuan / ton. The situation of market transaction and shipment is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

III. future forecast

The overall trend of PS market is mainly stable, and there is a certain space for negotiation in terms of actual goods. Traders are willing to ship goods, but the sales situation is still not optimistic, both traders and downstream factories are less accepting. PS market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend.

At the end of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China fell slightly. On the 18th, the drop of liquid ammonia was 0.52%. This week, most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of them went down 50-100 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong maintained stability, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, some of the ammonia production in Shandong is surplus, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of enterprises is relatively low. Gradually increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is mainly stable, and the main quotation in Shandong is 2900-3000 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in North China is also slightly higher than that before the festival, which leads to the current ammonia storage and the price decline, but the increase is not large. Within 100 yuan, due to the large number of shutdown enterprises in Shanxi, the problems of transportation restrictions still exist, and the lack of downstream demand support, the shipping pressure increases significantly, and the market declines. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2800 yuan / ton up and down.

The transportation of vehicles under the Fifth Five Year Plan in Hebei Province is blocked, and most of the enterprises are limited in production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan leads to weak demand in the downstream. The enterprises have accumulated a lot of inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

This week, there was a slight downward trend in Central China, and the delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is in a bad atmosphere, and weak operation, with the mainstream quotation of 2700 yuan / ton in Henan Province.

In the future, the business club believes that the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the increase in ammonia output in most regions after the festival, and the possibility of continuing to explore low prices is not ruled out in the near future.

Commodity index: PACl commodity index on October 20 was 108.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.33% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.68% from 100.90, the lowest point on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: for the main monitoring manufacturers of the business association, on October 11, the main quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan / ton, and on October 20, the main quotation of the market was 2100 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.5%, with little fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) and 350-500 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%). After the highest price was raised during the shutdown last month, some manufacturers still maintain this price until now, but The prices of most manufacturers have not changed much.

Industrial chain: in the middle of October, in the recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business agency was 156.37 yuan / ton on the 11th market, 180 yuan / ton on the 20th, up 3.97%. This month, the downstream demand of PACl is stable. At present, the production of PACl manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan Province is normal, the supply of goods is normal, and the market price changes little.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth. The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. In the first and middle of October, the production and supply of relevant manufacturers were normal.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current supply of goods and downstream demand are stable, and the production cost is increased. However, the manufacturer has prepared goods, which has little impact, and the recent trend is still stable.

I. price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated and fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of the aggregate MDI market at the beginning of this week was 13075 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the weekend was 12700 yuan / ton, down 2.87% in the week. The price was stable compared with the same period last month, and the price was down 9.29% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell in shock. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of main factories fell, which depressed the market mentality, and the market trading was depressed. The industry was lack of confidence in the future. The decline of offer made profits for shipment, and the low price offer was frequent. On Monday (10.14), Ningbo Wanhua announced the maintenance plan, which greatly boosted the market mentality. The next day, the market trading and buying picked up, and the volume of transactions was significant. Those who have offered to push up one after another, but the price rise has depressed market buying, the overall atmosphere continues to fall, the rise has not been continued.

In terms of market, as of Friday (10.18), the MDI market of North China polymerization was in shock and consolidation, with weak on-site inquiry and purchase, poor transaction follow-up, slightly tight holding of goods, and firm offer. At present, Shanghai’s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and pm200′s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 12900-13000 yuan / ton. The MDI market of East China polymerization is in a stalemate. The overall atmosphere in the market is weak and the transaction is not smooth. The offer of the company is firm and the price is low. At present, the quotation of Shanghai drum delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and that of pm200 drum delivery with bills is 13000-13100 yuan / ton. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation, the overall atmosphere of the market is weak, the transaction is not smooth, the industry reported stable waiting for the market, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of Shanghai barreled delivery with bills is about 12000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of pm200 barreled delivery with bills is about 13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Aniline: in the week, the domestic aniline Market negotiation is stable, the supply of Shandong market is limited, the large factories in East China market mainly sell the cargo, the domestic manufacturers have no pressure on the inventory, it is expected that the aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. Shandong and North China’s mainstream reference price to 7760 yuan / ton acceptance; East China’s market mainstream price reference 8000 yuan / ton acceptance factory. (Note: the rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are calculated according to the rise and fall of cash)

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: the supplier’s slow delivery speed, the spot tension in the field will continue, the quantity of goods held by the business community is not large, and the business community holds the attitude of low price and reluctant to sell. The northern heat preservation project is coming to an end, and there is still a stock of raw materials in the downstream, which will be supplemented to some extent this week, while the price of foaming agent is in short supply, so the demand is hard to say good. According to the MDI analyst of the business community, the domestic aggregate MDI market will be biased next week. Strong consolidation, little fluctuation space, focus on factory policy and market trading.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.19% from 1796.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.11% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 83.72 on October 12.

II. Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this week is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation is in progress in Shandong Province, and agricultural demand is gradually rising, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the National Day has passed, environmental protection policies and transportation difficulties have weakened, and downstream construction has increased, and downstream demand for urea has also started to rise. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong will fluctuate in the short term.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products rose and fell: the price of natural gas rose significantly, with a 15.16% increase from 2793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 at the end of the week, down 23.87% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, with a 3.65% decrease from 3286.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 11.55% year-on-year. Urea cost is generally supported. This week, the downstream melamine quotation is temporarily stable, and the purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of October, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Business urea analysts believe that after the national day, environmental protection policies and safety inspection and other factors weakened, downstream construction increased, downstream purchase intention increased, coupled with the current farming is in progress, agricultural demand also increased. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fluctuate in the middle of October.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 225.00 yuan/ton, which is 6.32% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 70.63 on October 11.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride factory quotation at weekend is 2200 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution quotation at weekend is 2250 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

III. future forecast

Potassium chloride Market in mid-October overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic price of p-xylene increased this week. The average price at the weekend was 6,800 yuan/ton, which was 3.03% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 38.18% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has risen, the domestic PX start-up rate has maintained more than 70%, Hongrun 600,000 tons of new plant is running steadily, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is running steadily, Fuhai Chuang plant is starting a line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running steadily, Yangtze petrochemical PX plant is running normally, Jinling petrochemical plant is running steadily, Qingdao Lidong plant is running at full load, Qilu petrochemical plant is loading. Running stably, Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Unit operated normally, domestic p-xylene supply was normal, affected by the rise of external price, domestic p-xylene market price trend rose. This week, the opening rate of p-xylene plant in Asia is more than 70%, the supply of PX in Asia is normal. This week, the price of PX external market rises. By the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 813-815 US dollars/ton CFR China. Affected by the rising international crude oil prices, the price of PX external market rose 15 US dollars/ton this week, and more than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. Export, PX external closing price has a positive impact on the domestic market, the domestic PX market price trend is rising.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic crude oil closing price rose slightly. As of November 11, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $54.70 per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was $60.51 per barrel. Overall, this week’s crude oil closing price rose, which has a certain cost support effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market rose. This week, the downstream PTA market price fluctuation, as of the end of the weekend, East China PTA market talks around 5100-5200 yuan self-lifting, the upstream raw material PX market price trend rose, PTA start-up load recently maintained about 87.5%, supply-side equipment overhaul and empty PX market, terminal demand slightly changed, polyester start-up remained stable. The downstream polyester start-up load is near 90%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is kept at 78%. The profit of terminal textile texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 78%, and the purchasing mood is general. The prices of Main polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the price rise of p-xylene market is limited.

Industry: This week’s textile industry trend remained volatile, textile industry start-up rate changed little, crude oil prices rose slightly, raw material PX market rose.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that crude oil prices have been volatile in recent years, but PTA market prices have been weak, PX external prices have not changed much, downstream textile industry has maintained a high start-up rate, domestic PX market supply is normal, and the price of PX market is expected to maintain the level of 6,800 yuan/ton next week.

Price Trend

Mainstream domestic prices of styrene continued to decline this week, according to a large number of data monitored by business associations. According to data from business associations, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (Oct. 07) was 8666.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday (Oct. 11), the price of sample enterprises was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.81%, which was 30.40% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products:

Styrene market prices fell sharply this week. Internationally, as of Thursday (October 10), Asian Styrene CFR China closed at $965-985 per ton, down $22.5 per ton; FOB Korea closed at $935-955 per ton, down $22.5 per ton. On the domestic side, the supply of styrene market is in good condition, the oil market has fallen sharply. After the National Day, the demand side has not been improved. The downstream maintains low demand, the recovery demand increases slowly, which is lower than the expectation of the merchants. Some of the pre-maintenance devices are at the end, the supply of domestic goods is increasing, and the stock pickup is poor. In addition, the volume of imported styrene arrives at the port in the early period of the National Day is large. As a result, Post-Savings styrene port stocks remain high. In recent years, the cost price of styrene has declined slightly, and domestic enterprises have kept the profit space. After the quotation of domestic enterprises has been lowered, they have basically stabilized temporarily. Most of them wait and see. The traditional mentality of “buy up, don’t buy down” influences the market into the short-term buyer’s market.

Industrial chain:

On the upstream side, crude oil prices continued to fall sharply before the festival this week, with Brent crude oil falling 5.8% and WTI crude oil falling 5.94%. Pure benzene prices are affected by crude oil. This week, prices continued to fall, falling by 1.95% this week. Ethylene also fell, down 3.29% this week. On the downstream side, PS and EPS declined slightly, PS declined 0.68% and EPS declined 3.69%. Downstream enterprises have a general start-up rate, downstream buying is not active, and the market for styrene has fallen. Styrene production enterprises still maintain a certain profit margin, but the space is narrow, the entire industrial chain, lack of strong and empty.

Industry:

Overall, this week’s styrene market prices have fallen sharply, the decline has increased, most domestic enterprises have reduced prices and promoted sales, downstream mainstay low demand, spot maintains the “buy-up-do-not-buy-down” mentality, wait-and-see increases, some market holders profit-taking, profit and short clouds, the current market temporary consolidation slight decline in consolidation situation.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

International oil prices and energy prices have fallen continuously this week. Domestic enterprises are stepping up inventory and trading is flat. Styrene is expected to be dominated by low-level consolidation next week.

Market Review

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province shook and fell in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2730 yuan/ton, at the end of the month, it was about 2410 yuan/ton, and fell by 11.72% in the month.

quotations analysis

Products: This month, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province shocked. At the beginning of this month, the market of dichloromethane continued to rise at the end of August, with an overall increase of about 100 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise at a high level. After mid-month, due to poor downstream demand, the market of dichloromethane continued to decline. Towards the end of this month, due to factors such as National Day holiday stocks, prices gradually warmed up. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2590 yuan/ton; that in East China is about 2700-2900 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 2850 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, about 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 90% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry chain: Upstream, the natural gas market continued to decline after a slight recovery, with an average price of 2973 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2793 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 6.05%. In the liquid chlorine market, the overall steady decline in the month, the downstream demand is not satisfactory, and the shipment price of mainstream enterprises has slightly fallen, with the current enterprises reporting an additional 200-300 yuan/ton. Downstream, the domestic refrigerant market entered the off-season demand is not good, the pharmaceutical and agricultural markets and solvent industries affected by the National Day, started to work smoothly, purchase just needed.

Future Market Forecast

After the National Day, the downstream industry and traders of dichloromethane have a high enthusiasm for purchasing and replenishing stores, a better trading atmosphere, stable supply of production enterprises, better transportation and logistics, and the market of dichloromethane is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices rose first and then fell in September, and zinc price shocks were adjusted. Overall, zinc market shocks remained stable in September, the pressure of good news and bad news was offset, and zinc price shocks remained stable. As of September 30, the price of 0 × zinc ingot was 19040.00 yuan / ton, up 0.46% compared with 19026.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 16.05% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis
In September, the processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate remained high at about 6500-6750 yuan/metal ton, while that of imported zinc concentrate remained around 280 dollars/dry ton. Compared with zinc price, zinc processing cost accounted for more than 30%, zinc ingot processing cost remained high and zinc ingot cost was high. High processing cost limited the falling space of zinc price, and zinc price had limited falling space.

Domestic Zinc Production

From the figure, we can see that zinc production rose sharply in August, domestic zinc production increased significantly in 2019, and zinc production increased by 18.9% in August compared with the same period last year; from January to August, domestic zinc production increased by 8.2%, zinc production increased, zinc supply increased, supply shortage alleviated, excess supply increased, and pressure on zinc price to fall increased.

Downstream demand

As can be seen from the figure above, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that the construction area of real estate increased steadily in 2019, and the construction area of real estate increased by 8.8% in January-August. The growth of real estate construction area shows that the fixed demand of the real estate market is still in existence and the demand of zinc city is declining with limited strength. At the same time, we can see from the chart below that in 2019, the new construction area of real estate decreased year-on-year, the real estate market declined compared with 2018, the demand of zinc market was insufficient, and the demand of real estate for zinc market was rising, but the benefits were limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in August 2019, there were 1 million 991 thousand vehicles and 1 million 958 thousand vehicles, with an increase of 10.3% and 8% compared with the same period, down 0.5% and 6.9% from the same period last year. From January to August, automobile production and sales fell by 12.1% and 11.0% compared with the same period last year, with 15.939 million vehicles and 16.104 million vehicles. The decline in production and sales continued to narrow compared with January to July. Automobile production and sales increased annually, but still declined year-on-year, and the total number of vehicles in August still did not reach 2 million. Although the overall decline of the industry has changed, the pressure faced by the industry has not been effectively alleviated. With the sharp decline of automobile production and sales and the decrease of demand for zinc ingots, the zinc market does not have enough power to rise.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: cost: zinc concentrate processing fees remain high, zinc ingot costs are high, zinc market has limited downward space, zinc market has upward pressure. In terms of supply and demand, the domestic zinc ingot production rose sharply in 2019, the supply of zinc increased, and the construction area of real estate increased overall. However, the newly added construction area declined to a certain extent. The growth of demand for zinc was limited. The production and sales of automobile industry continued to decline sharply. The demand for zinc was negative, and the overall zinc supply increased sharply and the demand was limited. In summary, the high cost of zinc ingot and the pressure of zinc price increase are great, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand, supply increases substantially, demand decreases, zinc price has pressure to fall. In a word, zinc market can not rise or fall, and it is expected that the fluctuation of zinc price will remain stable in the future.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6770 yuan/ton on September 23, and domestic PVC quoted 6725 yuan/ton on September 29. The overall decline was 0.66%. This week, the PVC market fell slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, PVC futures continued to fall, driving spot prices to follow the market trend, the actual spot delivery climate is not warm, resulting in narrow consolidation of PVC prices, prices fell slightly. Near the National Day, the downstream stock gradually ended, the purchaser’s cautious wait-and-see attitude was dominant, just needed to purchase, the phenomenon of business profit delivery was obvious, and transport costs increased, market transaction prices were mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. As of September 29, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range is 6460-6850 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 38 th week of 2019 (9.23-9.27), there were three kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in rubber-plastic plate, two of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities were cis-butadiene rubber (7.28%), nitrile rubber (6.68%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (4.20%). There were 8 kinds of goods that declined annually. The first three products were natural rubber (-2.14%), PET (-1.57%) and HDPE (-1.15%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Analyst PVC thinks: on the eve of the national day, the lower reaches of the stock market are coming to an end. Buyers are cautious about wait-and-see attitude. They just need to purchase. After the National Day holiday, the upstream enterprises will have a centralized overhaul tide, and the market supply will increase.

Price Trend

The ex-factory price of ethylene oxide is 8000 yuan/ton in East China, 8200 yuan/ton in South China and North China, and 8100 yuan/ton in Central and Northeast China. The executive price of Lianhong Group is 8,200 yuan/ton, while that of Srbang, Jiangsu Province is 8,000 yuan/ton.

2. Products:

Ethylene oxide prices in eastern, southern and Northern China did not fluctuate this month. Ethylene oxide prices in Wuhan, central China, were lowered by 200 yuan/ton on the 17th, from 8300 yuan/ton to 8100 yuan/ton, while prices in Northeast China were slightly lowered by 200 yuan/ton on the 19th, with the implementation of 8100 yuan/ton. In terms of equipment, it is reported that after the festival, the production enterprises plan to overhaul, which has a great impact on the production. If the information is implemented, it will have a considerable impact on the supply side, in favor of ethylene oxide.

III. Industrial chain:

Ethylene bottomed out in the middle and early part of this month, with low volatility. Ethylene glycol de-stocking achieved initial results and rose steadily and moderately. In the second half of the year, crude oil rose sharply because of emergencies, which triggered a sharp reaction downstream like cold water dripping into hot oil. The international situation was tense. The price of ethylene rose while the price of ethylene rose. The downstream ethylene glycol also pumped up. The impact gradually weakened, the price of ethylene dropped, and the price of ethylene glycol remained stable. Inventory of downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises is low, but the market bearish atmosphere is strong, combined with the impact of two sections, the start-up rate declined, and prices fell slightly.

Forecast:

Fundamental support is still acceptable, the price is temporarily stable, follow-up needs to pay close attention to plant maintenance information.

Price Trend

PS market quotations fell slightly, and poor downstream demand is the main factor hindering the overall market climate to improve. Price: GPPS mainstream offer is 10,200-10,600 yuan/ton, HIPS mainstream offer is 10,700-12,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

PS market quotation: Zhanjiang Sino-US PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10050 yuan/ton. CITIC Guoan PS ex-factory price, 525 offer for 9850 yuan/ton. The market turnover and delivery situation is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

3. Future Market Forecast

PS market trend is weak. The downstream factories have general inquiries and are mainly cautious. It is expected that PS will operate steadily in general and may increase in a narrow range locally.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price declined slightly this week. The weekend price was 2877.78 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from 2888.89 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 7.41% year on year. Recently, the fluorite price has slightly decreased.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industry for fluorite demand has declined, the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, fluorite market is poor, and fluorite plant start-up rate maintained high, but the downstream demand situation. Generally, the spot supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite is on the decline. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite declined slightly when the price of fluorite dropped by 1000 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell slightly this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 320 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell by 0.48% this week. The decline of market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is a big negative factor in the fluorite market. The domestic fluorite market was affected by the decline. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline, fluorite products on the spot supply is sufficient, the market is poor, fluorite market prices slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant has started normal recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry keeps falling, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry is worse. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst at business associations, thinks that the price of fluorite will be slightly lower in the later stage, or about 2800 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene oxide fell by 1.56% as of September 23, compared with 22. On September 23, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10800 yuan/ton.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The market price of propylene oxide fell on the 23rd. Purchasing rhythm of downstream polyether market has slowed down, and the supply and demand of the market are basically balanced. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10500 yuan/ton on 23rd, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 108 00 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in eastern China is around 10 600 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10 200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in southern China is around 10 200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene market in Shandong Province remained stable on 23rd. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province remained flat on the 23rd. At present, the market turnover is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7800 yuan/ton. On the 23rd, the downstream polyether market fell with raw materials, weak operation, cold trading atmosphere, strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and limited buying.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that propylene oxide prices stabilized after the fall, propylene oxide manufacturers to actively ship, downstream demand is relatively light, no good support for the time being, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be mainly weak operation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 223.00 yuan/ton, which is 1.62% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 70.79 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride factory quotation for the weekend is 2200 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2260 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Late September potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of caprolactam in the domestic market continued to rise this month. On September 1st, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 1 2033 yuan/ton, and on September 20th, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 12 600 yuan/ton, up by 4.71%. On September 20, the caprolactam commodity index was 63.37, which was 36.63% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2017-03-02), and 8.96% higher than the 58.16 point on May 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of caprolactam liquid market rebounded in mid-early September. The mainstream price of domestic liquid caprolactam market is 12020-13200 yuan per ton. As of September 20, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 12300 yuan/ton. Cash was discharged from the factory. The first and second phases of caprolactam plant were running normally and the actual transaction was negotiable. The price of caprolactam liquid in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12800 yuan/ton, which was the main contract and 140,000 tons of caprolactam plant was running normally. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 12700 yuan / ton, and the unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance. Domestic caprolactam start-up rate is stable.

Industry chain: The price of cyclohexanone in upstream has risen sharply. On September 20, the reference value of cyclohexanone was 9000.00. Cyclohexanone market rose broadly, Saudi Arabia was attacked during the Mid-Autumn Festival, crude oil soared, pure benzene soared recently, the cost of cyclohexanone was strongly supported, the factory spot supply was normal, and the price was low. Downstream PA6 prices rose. On September 20, the reference price of PA6 was 14666.67. Traders’mainstream offer of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 14666.67 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream demand of the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is limited. In addition, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories tends to expand. Affected by this trend, the supply and demand of PA6 are closely watched by the industry, and the buyers and sellers are gradually cautious in their operation.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association caprolactam believe that the market price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials upstream and insufficient stock. Downstream aggregation factories are actively following the upsurge and stocking up on demand. The price of PA6 slices increased. It is expected that the future caprolactam market will be firm due to increased costs, but it is slightly difficult to continue to rise, so cautious operation is recommended.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the urea ex-factory price in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with an offer of 1840.00 yuan/ton, down 8.61% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was stable this week, with the urea commodity index of 85.58 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory price in Shandong Province is stable. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1820 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1900 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell from 3050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.30%, 23.57% year-on-year; liquid ammonia prices stabilized temporarily this week, quoted at 3193.33 yuan/ton, down 10.80% year-on-year. The cost support of urea is weak and the purchasing capacity of downstream melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In mid-September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in mid-September.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic butanone market continued to rise this week. As of September 12, the overall average price of butanone market was around 9133 yuan/ton based on comprehensive quotations from several mainstream regions. Compared with September 6, the average price of butanone market rose by 1200 yuan/ton, up by 15.13%, up by 2400 yuan/ton, up by 1 September. As high as 35.64%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Last week’s butanone market has been booming. Beginning early this week, the butanone market continues to rise steadily. The factory stock is seriously insufficient. The quotation of distributors in Shandong is 900 yuan higher than that of September 9 and September 12. Dongming Pear Tree Chemical Co. Ltd. increased its quotation by 1100 yuan/ton on September 12 after parking for 3 days at the beginning of this week (September 9). At present, the quotation for butanone is 9300 yuan/ton. At the present stage, most factories are seriously short of stock and short of stock. Most factories and distributors quote prices at pre-sale prices after 2 weeks. Short-term shortage of butanone market still exists. Factory price-stabilizing mentality has risen and spot supply has been depressed. At present, TRADERS’quotations continue to be firm. Changzhou Yeshuo Petrochemical Co., Ltd. sells butanone in stock. On September 12th, butanone is quoted at 9500 yuan/ton; Nantong Zhongkai Chemical Co., Ltd. sells butanone in advance for one week, and on September 12th, butanone is quoted at 9600 yuan/ton. At present, the price of butanone in East China is around 9300-9400 yuan/ton, while that in South China and North China is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: After the upstream raw material ether, the trend of carbon Tetra (Shandong market) tends to be stable after continuous rise, and the price has been stable due to the influence of favorable or bad factors. The price of the upstream raw material liquefied gas market is stable as a whole, and the quotations of some manufacturers fluctuate slightly. At present, the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in North China is 3450-3600 yuan/ton. About 3,470-3,900 yuan/ton is the mainstream price in Shandong liquefied gas market, and about 3,500 yuan/ton is the mainstream price in East China liquefied gas market.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising on September 11, 2019, which are concentrated in the non-ferrous plate (4 kinds) and the chemical plate (3 kinds). The top three commodities are pure benzene (3.42%), silver (1.62%) and pig (1.20%). There were 14 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, focusing on non-ferrous (3 kinds in total) and agricultural and sideline (3 kinds in total). The first three commodities falling were eggs (-3.93%), liquefied natural gas (-0.88%) and WTI crude oil (-0.78%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.04%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that the current shortage of butanone supply in many factories, pre-sold goods, it is expected that in late September, the butanone market will still be in a strong upward state.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices have risen sharply and plasticizer prices have risen recently. As of September 9, the price of DOP in East China was 7566.67 yuan/ton, up 3.18% from 7333.33 yuan/ton in early September, and down 19.43% from the same period last year. DOP prices are lower than in previous years, DOP still has room to rise.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

This week, the price of DOP’s external quotation has risen sharply, which is good for the DOP market. DOP in China quoted 900 US dollars per ton this week, up 10 US dollars per ton from last week’s price of 890 US dollars per ton, DOP in Southeast Asia price of 1130 US dollars per ton, price stabilization compared with last week; DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer enterprises maintained, demand rose, overall plasticizer DOP market has a certain advantage.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

For raw materials, the price trend of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the price of octanol has also warmed up, and the overall cost of DOP has risen sharply. The pressure of DOP rise in the future market is huge, and it is expected that the market will rise mainly after DOP.

On the downstream demand side, the price of PVC has been warming up recently, and the demand for PVC has risen. Overall, the DOP market in the future is good, and the DOP rising space in the future increases.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst, believes that DOP raw material prices have risen sharply in recent years, DOP costs have risen, and the pressure of DOP increases in the future market has increased; on the demand side, the overall market of the plastic industry has warmed up, which is beneficial to the idling of plasticizer market, and the rising space of DOP in the future has increased; on the external side, DOP prices have risen slightly, which is beneficial to DOP. Good but limited. Overall, the sharp rise in raw materials led to the increase in DOP costs, DOP has a greater momentum, and the revival of the plastic industry also provides room for the rise of DOP, DOP prices are expected to rise sharply in the future.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was supported by raw materials and went up broadly. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) was 2880 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 3040 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 5.56%, which was 35.11% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market rose sharply this week. In the early period, the domestic supply was excessive as a whole. In addition, August was the off-season of market demand and the terminal consumption was slow. Cost methanol and liquefied petroleum gas market trend is weak, bearish market mentality, downstream market entry caution, wait-and-see, prices continue to bottom. The off-season ends and enters September. Influenced by the gas market, it ushered in the traditional sales peak season. The market demand will improve, but there is no obvious improvement at present. The main reason for this rebound is the strong rise of raw material methanol, the rise in cost has seriously reduced the profits of dimethyl ether enterprises, some enterprises have been in a loss state, so there has been a stop-drop rebound. This week, Henan Heart-to-Heart End Bottom Guarantee, Wednesday began to lead the rally, tentative upward, the market response is still acceptable, manufacturers shipment situation improved, the latter continued to rise, small factories around have followed the rally. Influenced by the rising cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether Market is strong, with a rise of 5.56% in the week.

Industry chain:
Methanol: This week, the domestic methanol market is on the strong side, driven by the rise in futures prices, the trading atmosphere in the mainland is good, the price is advancing with the trend. The main producing areas have increased by 90-130 yuan/ton this week, and North China, Shandong and other places have followed. The Harbor was on the strong side of the shocks. The harbor rose by 100 yuan/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plants have resumed normal production.

Liquefied Gas: This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market has been narrowly adjusted, and the fluctuation is not obvious. At the beginning of the week, crude oil fell for two consecutive days, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the downstream consumption rate increased slowly. Most of the manufacturers’inventories are above the middle level. Shandong market yields slightly and deliveries mainly. Thursday’s surge in international crude oil boosted the liquefied petroleum gas market, but it was not obvious. Manufacturers stopped falling and maintained stability, guaranteed priority for shipments, and the trading atmosphere in the market was tepid in the week. September is the traditional sales season, spot market trend with signs of recovery, but the downstream consumption rate is not as fast as expected.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the cost: methanol market is expected to show a regional market next week, the trend will be reflected in the stable rise and fall; liquefied gas market downstream consumption rate is slow, expected to rise steadily in the next week. Demand: Dimethyl ether Market actual demand is still weak, next week Hebei Jichun and Qinyang Shengxin resumed production, increased supply, market negative. However, due to the impact of the traditional gas market sales peak season, there is still some support for the market. Expect future market or narrow upstream.

Price data

This week (9.2-9.6) the price of petroleum coke fell sharply. According to the data of business associations, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1 232.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 1 242.20 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 9.40 yuan/ton in the week and down 0.76%.

On September 6, the petroleum coke commodity index was 96.62, up 0.32 points from yesterday, down 37.90% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 44.45% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke shipments are stable this week, prices remain stable as a whole, and stocks remain low and medium.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was $55.10 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and $56.30 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 2.18%; Brent crude oil was $60.43 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $60.95 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 0.86%. Tension of international trade relations, U.S. crude oil production and stock boost affect the trend of international crude oil. Downstream: In the pre-festival stock-up stage of carbon enterprises in September, they basically received the goods according to plan. The delivery of calcined coke was basically stable this week. The electrolytic aluminium market had no obvious favorable support, and most of them purchased on demand. According to business association data, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of September 6 was 14413.33 yuan per ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35 th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 9 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling are coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%). This week’s average rise and fall was 1.05%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that the market price of petroleum coke has risen slightly this week. At present, refinery stocks are low. Carbon enterprises basically take delivery according to plan. The market of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminium has no obvious favorable support. Most of them are purchased on demand. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will be stable next week. Some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range is about 1200-1300 yuan/ton.