I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1756.67 yuan / ton, down 16.90% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 81.71 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

Product: the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the shutdown and maintenance of the urea equipment in Mingshui chemical industry is expected to reach 15.

Market demand: in recent years, some enterprises have reduced production and overhaul, and the domestic urea enterprises have seen a significant decline in starting work. At present, the operating rate is about 60%, and the daily output is about 120000 tons, the lowest level since 2019. In terms of demand, domestic demand is weak and hard to change. At present, there is no strong support in the domestic market. It is expected that the weak operation of the domestic urea market will prevail before the bid opening in India.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell, and the quotation dropped from 4366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4126.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.50%, down 3.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly this week, from 3236.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.62%, down 3.31% year-on-year. Overall, the urea cost support this week is weak 。 However, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 6100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.64%. The general purchasing capacity in the downstream had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of downstream compound fertilizer production has a negative impact on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of November, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Urea analysts of business association believe that the demand for agriculture in Shandong Province has declined, which is weak and hard to change. In addition to the low starting level of compound fertilizer enterprises, the industrial demand has also declined. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will be dominated by low consolidation in the middle of November.

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the domestic melamine market price fell this week, down 1.64% compared with the beginning of the week (November 4), and the mainstream domestic melamine price on November 8 was 5200-5600 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: domestic melamine market price fell this week. Melamine operation rate is at a high level, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the demand is not good. Most downstream manufacturers are cautious in receiving goods and purchasing on demand, most of which focus on wait-and-see. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the ex factory price (11.4-11.8) of urea in Shandong in the upstream of this week is running smoothly. The upstream liquid ammonia price (11.4-11.8) fell slightly, down 0.62%. Downstream papermaking, plate, molding plastics and other industries started in a downturn, the actual demand is still poor, and the confidence of the industry is insufficient.

3. Future forecast:

Melamine analysts of the business association believe that the price of raw urea is stable this week, the price of liquid ammonia is slightly lower, and the cost is slightly weakened in the face of melamine support. The domestic melamine operation rate is at a high level. Due to the weak downstream demand and limited digestion capacity of melamine sources, it is expected that the domestic melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream raw material price changes.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R22 began to improve this month, and the situation of price falling again and again improved. On October 31, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 14166.67 yuan / ton, 14333.33 yuan / ton compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (08), down 1.16% in the month, down 23.42% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: R22 market of refrigerant market began to improve in October, mainly due to the limited quota of manufacturers and the decline of overall operating rate of the industry, which led to the rise of prices. The overall trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline, and the delivery situation of on-site manufacturers was still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintained a high operating rate, the domestic spot supply was sufficient, some manufacturers continued to reduce the factory price, and the cost was negative in the face of refrigerant. Near the end of the month, R22 production and domestic sales quotas are tightening, some manufacturers have maintenance plans, market supply is further reduced, small packaging is in short supply, and some businesses are out of stock, so quotation is suspended. According to the data monitoring of Yishe, as of October 31, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 13500 yuan / ton, and that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, with the price concentrated around 12500 yuan / ton – 16500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, the operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the situation of goods in hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the market price keeps falling. The domestic trichloromethane market of upstream products continues to maintain a low level. At present, the trichloromethane market is in the traditional off-season and the price remains low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%) There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%) This week’s average was – 0.61%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club, R22 manufacturers are affected by quota restrictions, and some manufacturers’ maintenance plans. The market supply is reduced, and traders’ enthusiasm for hoarding is increased. R22 quotation shows a stable upward trend, and it is expected that the refrigerant R22 market will be stronger in the short term.

In October, the domestic liquid ammonia market performance was sluggish and the price fell. At the end of the month, some regions recovered slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the drop of the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong was 1.32%, the overall market atmosphere was relatively low, and the market expectation for the later period was low.

In terms of supply, the overall supply of liquid ammonia Market in October was loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise was slightly higher. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions. However, the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. As the liquid ammonia plant in Hubei Province enters the recovery period in the middle and late ten days, the price of liquid ammonia has declined. In addition, in the near future, manufacturers in Anhui Province have maintenance plans. In the next month, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises will be reduced, and the local liquid ammonia market may pick up, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic.

In terms of demand, the demand for liquid ammonia in October is relatively weak. First of all, the downstream operating rate remains low, and under the double pressure of environmental protection and safety, the operating rate of some chemical enterprises continues to be low, and the sales progress of compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, and the production enthusiasm is not high, especially when small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises stop production or reduce production. The purchase volume of raw liquid ammonia is very high In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the demand of phosphate compound fertilizer has entered the window period, the fertilizer land in autumn market has gradually shrunk, some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand for liquid ammonia has shrunk. At the same time, Hubei Province, which accounts for 40% of the production capacity of phosphate fertilizer enterprises, is partly affected by the military games and has a large production limit.

In the future, the business community believes that the liquid ammonia market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the weak demand in most regions, resulting in overstocking of inventory. The recent market does not exclude the possibility of continuing to explore low.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of October 27, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5550.00 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, or 2.63% compared with 5700.00 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the week (October 21), and down 29.15% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, fell sharply, while the price of methanol fell sharply. The demand for acetic anhydride is general, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride is stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, customers purchase on demand, the overall market of acetic anhydride is more negative than positive, and the market of acetic anhydride is under great pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and it was negative for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises has dropped significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride market decline is great.

In terms of methanol, methanol fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride produced by methanol method fell, and the market of acetic anhydride in the future was negative. Overall, acetic anhydride raw materials were negative significantly, and it is expected that the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market will increase.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride dropped significantly, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was insufficient; as for downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was general, downstream customers purchased on demand, and the demand for acetic anhydride was limited, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was insufficient. On the whole, the pressure of acetic anhydride decline is increasing, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will mainly fall in the future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DOP price has stabilized after a small drop this week, and the plasticizer market has remained weak and stable. As of October 25, the price of DOP in East China was 7466.67 yuan / ton, down 133.33 yuan / ton, or 1.75% compared with 7600.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (October 21), and down 24.32% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product analysis

Commodity name, port, price of this week, price of last week, price rise and fall, price type, unit

DOP China 930.00 940.00-10.00 CFR USD / ton

DOP Southeast Asia 1140.00 1150.00-10.00 CFR USD / ton

© October 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

As can be seen from the table, DOP’s external quotation fell this week, and DOP’s market was negative. This week, the price of DOP in China was 930.00 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 10 dollars / ton compared with that of last week; the price of DOP in Southeast Asia was 1140 dollars / ton, a decrease of 10 dollars / ton compared with that of last week, and the price of plasticizer DOP fell, which was negative for domestic plasticizer Market.

Analysis of industrial chain

In terms of raw materials, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell this week, but the decline slowed down. After the price of octanol fell, it stabilized. The overall cost of DOP fell, but the decline slowed down. The price of DOP fell in shock, but the downward pressure in the future weakened, and the market in the future of DOP was weak.

In terms of downstream demand, this week’s PVC market remained stable, while the downstream demand of DOP was stable, with insufficient upward momentum. The downstream PVC market fluctuated and remained stable, the demand for DOP was general, the overall good for the future DOP market was insufficient, and the momentum for the future DOP to rise was insufficient.

III. future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the decline of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP this week slowed down, the price of isooctanol stabilized after a small drop, the cost of DOP decreased but the space for decline was limited, the price of PVC remained stable, the demand for DOP was not good enough, and the momentum of DOP market was insufficient. The overall plasticizer DOP market decline pressure still exists, but it has been alleviated to some extent. The lack of upward momentum is difficult to support the DOP market recovery. It is expected that the future DOP market will be weak and stable.

As of the 25th, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9640 yuan / ton. Since the late July, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, with an overall decline of 20%. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 9000-10000 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi Province is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 9. About RMB 000-9500 / ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant operates stably, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the market of hydrofluoric acid is not good, and the market price keeps falling.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is more than 60%. Enterprises report that there is sufficient stock supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site at present, and the situation of goods distribution in the site in the near future is poor. In the near future, due to the poor downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to decline. In the near future, the start-up of downstream refrigerant product units is at a low level, and the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is generally, the operation rate of R22 refrigerants is 50%, and the operation rate of R22 market devices is temporarily stable. The factory offer price of bulk water of the main production enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water in stock, most of which are small quantities of steel cylinders. In addition, the actual demand side of the market changes little, and the shipping market is general. The price trend of R134a market in China is not good, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low, the market demand for refrigerants is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps declining due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand. Recently, affected by the common negative effects of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell by as much as 20% in three months.

The price trend of fluorite can be seen clearly from the price trend chart. According to statistics, the average price of fluorite in China as of October 25 is 2877.78 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite has declined by 8.64% since the middle of July. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 27 yuan / ton. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3000 yuan / ton.

In the middle of July, the price trend of domestic fluorite began to decline. First, the national environmental protection inspection showed that the operation rate of fluorite was average. In 2019, some domestic mines and flotation units were shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite in the site normal. Some goods holding businesses still had a strong price intention. The price drop of domestic fluorite was relatively low compared with the price of hydrofluoric acid. Second, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is sluggish, and the demand for upstream is poor. Fluorite price is affected by the downturn. Recently, the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant market are declining, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the price of domestic fluorite is lower. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite market in the North declines, and the price of fluorite market has some support, so there is little room for the price of fluorite to fall.

In the past three months, the market price of R22 in the refrigerant market has been greatly reduced. Major air-conditioning manufacturers have been overhauling in succession, with low demand. In addition, due to the influence of quotas, the market supply is normal, and the refrigerant price is constantly falling. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer starts high, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the industry is optimistic. According to the data monitoring of Yishe society, as of October 25, the quotation of R22 of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 16000 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 12500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang science and Technology Co., Ltd. is 13300 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 12500 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated in 12500 yuan / ton – 14000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of fluorite market and downstream refrigerant industry, fluorite price remains firm, and R22 price has the potential of bottoming and rebounding. However, hydrofluoric acid market supply is sufficient, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will maintain a low volatility trend in the later period.

I. price trend

PS market trend is generally stable, with some small losses. The demand of downstream factories is not smooth and there are not many transactions. Traders are more cautious in operation, some of them still intend to ship goods. Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 9550-10700 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 10500-12000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

PS Market: the ex factory price of Zhanjiang Zhongmei PS, 525, is 9800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS, 525, is 9600 yuan / ton. The situation of market transaction and shipment is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

III. future forecast

The overall trend of PS market is mainly stable, and there is a certain space for negotiation in terms of actual goods. Traders are willing to ship goods, but the sales situation is still not optimistic, both traders and downstream factories are less accepting. PS market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend.

At the end of the week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China fell slightly. On the 18th, the drop of liquid ammonia was 0.52%. This week, most of the manufacturers reported a stable decline, some of them went down 50-100 yuan / ton. Some of the enterprises in Shandong maintained stability, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remained stable. At present, some of the ammonia production in Shandong is surplus, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of enterprises is relatively low. Gradually increasing, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is mainly stable, and the main quotation in Shandong is 2900-3000 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in North China is also slightly higher than that before the festival, which leads to the current ammonia storage and the price decline, but the increase is not large. Within 100 yuan, due to the large number of shutdown enterprises in Shanxi, the problems of transportation restrictions still exist, and the lack of downstream demand support, the shipping pressure increases significantly, and the market declines. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2800 yuan / ton up and down.

The transportation of vehicles under the Fifth Five Year Plan in Hebei Province is blocked, and most of the enterprises are limited in production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan leads to weak demand in the downstream. The enterprises have accumulated a lot of inventory, and the price has not changed significantly. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

This week, there was a slight downward trend in Central China, and the delivery pressure in Hubei was obvious. Part of Henan was affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gave way to more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is in a bad atmosphere, and weak operation, with the mainstream quotation of 2700 yuan / ton in Henan Province.

In the future, the business club believes that the market may continue to maintain a weak position in the short term, mainly affected by the increase in ammonia output in most regions after the festival, and the possibility of continuing to explore low prices is not ruled out in the near future.

Commodity index: PACl commodity index on October 20 was 108.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.33% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.68% from 100.90, the lowest point on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: for the main monitoring manufacturers of the business association, on October 11, the main quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan / ton, and on October 20, the main quotation of the market was 2100 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.5%, with little fluctuation. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the mainstream quotation of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) and 350-500 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%). After the highest price was raised during the shutdown last month, some manufacturers still maintain this price until now, but The prices of most manufacturers have not changed much.

Industrial chain: in the middle of October, in the recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business agency was 156.37 yuan / ton on the 11th market, 180 yuan / ton on the 20th, up 3.97%. This month, the downstream demand of PACl is stable. At present, the production of PACl manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan Province is normal, the supply of goods is normal, and the market price changes little.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth. The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. In the first and middle of October, the production and supply of relevant manufacturers were normal.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current supply of goods and downstream demand are stable, and the production cost is increased. However, the manufacturer has prepared goods, which has little impact, and the recent trend is still stable.

I. price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated and fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of the aggregate MDI market at the beginning of this week was 13075 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the weekend was 12700 yuan / ton, down 2.87% in the week. The price was stable compared with the same period last month, and the price was down 9.29% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell in shock. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of main factories fell, which depressed the market mentality, and the market trading was depressed. The industry was lack of confidence in the future. The decline of offer made profits for shipment, and the low price offer was frequent. On Monday (10.14), Ningbo Wanhua announced the maintenance plan, which greatly boosted the market mentality. The next day, the market trading and buying picked up, and the volume of transactions was significant. Those who have offered to push up one after another, but the price rise has depressed market buying, the overall atmosphere continues to fall, the rise has not been continued.

In terms of market, as of Friday (10.18), the MDI market of North China polymerization was in shock and consolidation, with weak on-site inquiry and purchase, poor transaction follow-up, slightly tight holding of goods, and firm offer. At present, Shanghai’s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and pm200′s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 12900-13000 yuan / ton. The MDI market of East China polymerization is in a stalemate. The overall atmosphere in the market is weak and the transaction is not smooth. The offer of the company is firm and the price is low. At present, the quotation of Shanghai drum delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and that of pm200 drum delivery with bills is 13000-13100 yuan / ton. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation, the overall atmosphere of the market is weak, the transaction is not smooth, the industry reported stable waiting for the market, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of Shanghai barreled delivery with bills is about 12000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of pm200 barreled delivery with bills is about 13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Aniline: in the week, the domestic aniline Market negotiation is stable, the supply of Shandong market is limited, the large factories in East China market mainly sell the cargo, the domestic manufacturers have no pressure on the inventory, it is expected that the aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. Shandong and North China’s mainstream reference price to 7760 yuan / ton acceptance; East China’s market mainstream price reference 8000 yuan / ton acceptance factory. (Note: the rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are calculated according to the rise and fall of cash)

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: the supplier’s slow delivery speed, the spot tension in the field will continue, the quantity of goods held by the business community is not large, and the business community holds the attitude of low price and reluctant to sell. The northern heat preservation project is coming to an end, and there is still a stock of raw materials in the downstream, which will be supplemented to some extent this week, while the price of foaming agent is in short supply, so the demand is hard to say good. According to the MDI analyst of the business community, the domestic aggregate MDI market will be biased next week. Strong consolidation, little fluctuation space, focus on factory policy and market trading.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.19% from 1796.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.11% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 83.72 on October 12.

II. Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this week is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation is in progress in Shandong Province, and agricultural demand is gradually rising, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the National Day has passed, environmental protection policies and transportation difficulties have weakened, and downstream construction has increased, and downstream demand for urea has also started to rise. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong will fluctuate in the short term.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products rose and fell: the price of natural gas rose significantly, with a 15.16% increase from 2793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 at the end of the week, down 23.87% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, with a 3.65% decrease from 3286.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 11.55% year-on-year. Urea cost is generally supported. This week, the downstream melamine quotation is temporarily stable, and the purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of October, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Business urea analysts believe that after the national day, environmental protection policies and safety inspection and other factors weakened, downstream construction increased, downstream purchase intention increased, coupled with the current farming is in progress, agricultural demand also increased. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fluctuate in the middle of October.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 225.00 yuan/ton, which is 6.32% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 70.63 on October 11.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride factory quotation at weekend is 2200 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution quotation at weekend is 2250 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

III. future forecast

Potassium chloride Market in mid-October overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in September, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic price of p-xylene increased this week. The average price at the weekend was 6,800 yuan/ton, which was 3.03% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 38.18% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has risen, the domestic PX start-up rate has maintained more than 70%, Hongrun 600,000 tons of new plant is running steadily, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is running steadily, Fuhai Chuang plant is starting a line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running steadily, Yangtze petrochemical PX plant is running normally, Jinling petrochemical plant is running steadily, Qingdao Lidong plant is running at full load, Qilu petrochemical plant is loading. Running stably, Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Unit operated normally, domestic p-xylene supply was normal, affected by the rise of external price, domestic p-xylene market price trend rose. This week, the opening rate of p-xylene plant in Asia is more than 70%, the supply of PX in Asia is normal. This week, the price of PX external market rises. By the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 813-815 US dollars/ton CFR China. Affected by the rising international crude oil prices, the price of PX external market rose 15 US dollars/ton this week, and more than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. Export, PX external closing price has a positive impact on the domestic market, the domestic PX market price trend is rising.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic crude oil closing price rose slightly. As of November 11, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $54.70 per barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was $60.51 per barrel. Overall, this week’s crude oil closing price rose, which has a certain cost support effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market rose. This week, the downstream PTA market price fluctuation, as of the end of the weekend, East China PTA market talks around 5100-5200 yuan self-lifting, the upstream raw material PX market price trend rose, PTA start-up load recently maintained about 87.5%, supply-side equipment overhaul and empty PX market, terminal demand slightly changed, polyester start-up remained stable. The downstream polyester start-up load is near 90%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is kept at 78%. The profit of terminal textile texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 78%, and the purchasing mood is general. The prices of Main polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the price rise of p-xylene market is limited.

Industry: This week’s textile industry trend remained volatile, textile industry start-up rate changed little, crude oil prices rose slightly, raw material PX market rose.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that crude oil prices have been volatile in recent years, but PTA market prices have been weak, PX external prices have not changed much, downstream textile industry has maintained a high start-up rate, domestic PX market supply is normal, and the price of PX market is expected to maintain the level of 6,800 yuan/ton next week.

Price Trend

Mainstream domestic prices of styrene continued to decline this week, according to a large number of data monitored by business associations. According to data from business associations, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (Oct. 07) was 8666.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday (Oct. 11), the price of sample enterprises was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.81%, which was 30.40% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products:

Styrene market prices fell sharply this week. Internationally, as of Thursday (October 10), Asian Styrene CFR China closed at $965-985 per ton, down $22.5 per ton; FOB Korea closed at $935-955 per ton, down $22.5 per ton. On the domestic side, the supply of styrene market is in good condition, the oil market has fallen sharply. After the National Day, the demand side has not been improved. The downstream maintains low demand, the recovery demand increases slowly, which is lower than the expectation of the merchants. Some of the pre-maintenance devices are at the end, the supply of domestic goods is increasing, and the stock pickup is poor. In addition, the volume of imported styrene arrives at the port in the early period of the National Day is large. As a result, Post-Savings styrene port stocks remain high. In recent years, the cost price of styrene has declined slightly, and domestic enterprises have kept the profit space. After the quotation of domestic enterprises has been lowered, they have basically stabilized temporarily. Most of them wait and see. The traditional mentality of “buy up, don’t buy down” influences the market into the short-term buyer’s market.

Industrial chain:

On the upstream side, crude oil prices continued to fall sharply before the festival this week, with Brent crude oil falling 5.8% and WTI crude oil falling 5.94%. Pure benzene prices are affected by crude oil. This week, prices continued to fall, falling by 1.95% this week. Ethylene also fell, down 3.29% this week. On the downstream side, PS and EPS declined slightly, PS declined 0.68% and EPS declined 3.69%. Downstream enterprises have a general start-up rate, downstream buying is not active, and the market for styrene has fallen. Styrene production enterprises still maintain a certain profit margin, but the space is narrow, the entire industrial chain, lack of strong and empty.

Industry:

Overall, this week’s styrene market prices have fallen sharply, the decline has increased, most domestic enterprises have reduced prices and promoted sales, downstream mainstay low demand, spot maintains the “buy-up-do-not-buy-down” mentality, wait-and-see increases, some market holders profit-taking, profit and short clouds, the current market temporary consolidation slight decline in consolidation situation.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

International oil prices and energy prices have fallen continuously this week. Domestic enterprises are stepping up inventory and trading is flat. Styrene is expected to be dominated by low-level consolidation next week.

Market Review

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province shook and fell in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2730 yuan/ton, at the end of the month, it was about 2410 yuan/ton, and fell by 11.72% in the month.

quotations analysis

Products: This month, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province shocked. At the beginning of this month, the market of dichloromethane continued to rise at the end of August, with an overall increase of about 100 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise at a high level. After mid-month, due to poor downstream demand, the market of dichloromethane continued to decline. Towards the end of this month, due to factors such as National Day holiday stocks, prices gradually warmed up. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2590 yuan/ton; that in East China is about 2700-2900 yuan/ton; and that in Liwen, Jiangxi is about 2850 yuan/ton. In terms of plant start-up, Jinling in Shandong Province started normal construction, about 60% of chemical industry in Western Shandong Province, Jiangsu Science and Culture Plant started normal construction, and 90% of Jiangxi Science and Culture Plant started construction.

Industry chain: Upstream, the natural gas market continued to decline after a slight recovery, with an average price of 2973 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2793 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 6.05%. In the liquid chlorine market, the overall steady decline in the month, the downstream demand is not satisfactory, and the shipment price of mainstream enterprises has slightly fallen, with the current enterprises reporting an additional 200-300 yuan/ton. Downstream, the domestic refrigerant market entered the off-season demand is not good, the pharmaceutical and agricultural markets and solvent industries affected by the National Day, started to work smoothly, purchase just needed.

Future Market Forecast

After the National Day, the downstream industry and traders of dichloromethane have a high enthusiasm for purchasing and replenishing stores, a better trading atmosphere, stable supply of production enterprises, better transportation and logistics, and the market of dichloromethane is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices rose first and then fell in September, and zinc price shocks were adjusted. Overall, zinc market shocks remained stable in September, the pressure of good news and bad news was offset, and zinc price shocks remained stable. As of September 30, the price of 0 × zinc ingot was 19040.00 yuan / ton, up 0.46% compared with 19026.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 16.05% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis
In September, the processing cost of domestic zinc concentrate remained high at about 6500-6750 yuan/metal ton, while that of imported zinc concentrate remained around 280 dollars/dry ton. Compared with zinc price, zinc processing cost accounted for more than 30%, zinc ingot processing cost remained high and zinc ingot cost was high. High processing cost limited the falling space of zinc price, and zinc price had limited falling space.

Domestic Zinc Production

From the figure, we can see that zinc production rose sharply in August, domestic zinc production increased significantly in 2019, and zinc production increased by 18.9% in August compared with the same period last year; from January to August, domestic zinc production increased by 8.2%, zinc production increased, zinc supply increased, supply shortage alleviated, excess supply increased, and pressure on zinc price to fall increased.

Downstream demand

As can be seen from the figure above, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics show that the construction area of real estate increased steadily in 2019, and the construction area of real estate increased by 8.8% in January-August. The growth of real estate construction area shows that the fixed demand of the real estate market is still in existence and the demand of zinc city is declining with limited strength. At the same time, we can see from the chart below that in 2019, the new construction area of real estate decreased year-on-year, the real estate market declined compared with 2018, the demand of zinc market was insufficient, and the demand of real estate for zinc market was rising, but the benefits were limited.

According to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in August 2019, there were 1 million 991 thousand vehicles and 1 million 958 thousand vehicles, with an increase of 10.3% and 8% compared with the same period, down 0.5% and 6.9% from the same period last year. From January to August, automobile production and sales fell by 12.1% and 11.0% compared with the same period last year, with 15.939 million vehicles and 16.104 million vehicles. The decline in production and sales continued to narrow compared with January to July. Automobile production and sales increased annually, but still declined year-on-year, and the total number of vehicles in August still did not reach 2 million. Although the overall decline of the industry has changed, the pressure faced by the industry has not been effectively alleviated. With the sharp decline of automobile production and sales and the decrease of demand for zinc ingots, the zinc market does not have enough power to rise.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: cost: zinc concentrate processing fees remain high, zinc ingot costs are high, zinc market has limited downward space, zinc market has upward pressure. In terms of supply and demand, the domestic zinc ingot production rose sharply in 2019, the supply of zinc increased, and the construction area of real estate increased overall. However, the newly added construction area declined to a certain extent. The growth of demand for zinc was limited. The production and sales of automobile industry continued to decline sharply. The demand for zinc was negative, and the overall zinc supply increased sharply and the demand was limited. In summary, the high cost of zinc ingot and the pressure of zinc price increase are great, but due to the imbalance between supply and demand, supply increases substantially, demand decreases, zinc price has pressure to fall. In a word, zinc market can not rise or fall, and it is expected that the fluctuation of zinc price will remain stable in the future.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6770 yuan/ton on September 23, and domestic PVC quoted 6725 yuan/ton on September 29. The overall decline was 0.66%. This week, the PVC market fell slightly.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, PVC futures continued to fall, driving spot prices to follow the market trend, the actual spot delivery climate is not warm, resulting in narrow consolidation of PVC prices, prices fell slightly. Near the National Day, the downstream stock gradually ended, the purchaser’s cautious wait-and-see attitude was dominant, just needed to purchase, the phenomenon of business profit delivery was obvious, and transport costs increased, market transaction prices were mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. As of September 29, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range is 6460-6850 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 38 th week of 2019 (9.23-9.27), there were three kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in rubber-plastic plate, two of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities were cis-butadiene rubber (7.28%), nitrile rubber (6.68%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (4.20%). There were 8 kinds of goods that declined annually. The first three products were natural rubber (-2.14%), PET (-1.57%) and HDPE (-1.15%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Analyst PVC thinks: on the eve of the national day, the lower reaches of the stock market are coming to an end. Buyers are cautious about wait-and-see attitude. They just need to purchase. After the National Day holiday, the upstream enterprises will have a centralized overhaul tide, and the market supply will increase.

Price Trend

The ex-factory price of ethylene oxide is 8000 yuan/ton in East China, 8200 yuan/ton in South China and North China, and 8100 yuan/ton in Central and Northeast China. The executive price of Lianhong Group is 8,200 yuan/ton, while that of Srbang, Jiangsu Province is 8,000 yuan/ton.

2. Products:

Ethylene oxide prices in eastern, southern and Northern China did not fluctuate this month. Ethylene oxide prices in Wuhan, central China, were lowered by 200 yuan/ton on the 17th, from 8300 yuan/ton to 8100 yuan/ton, while prices in Northeast China were slightly lowered by 200 yuan/ton on the 19th, with the implementation of 8100 yuan/ton. In terms of equipment, it is reported that after the festival, the production enterprises plan to overhaul, which has a great impact on the production. If the information is implemented, it will have a considerable impact on the supply side, in favor of ethylene oxide.

III. Industrial chain:

Ethylene bottomed out in the middle and early part of this month, with low volatility. Ethylene glycol de-stocking achieved initial results and rose steadily and moderately. In the second half of the year, crude oil rose sharply because of emergencies, which triggered a sharp reaction downstream like cold water dripping into hot oil. The international situation was tense. The price of ethylene rose while the price of ethylene rose. The downstream ethylene glycol also pumped up. The impact gradually weakened, the price of ethylene dropped, and the price of ethylene glycol remained stable. Inventory of downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises is low, but the market bearish atmosphere is strong, combined with the impact of two sections, the start-up rate declined, and prices fell slightly.

Forecast:

Fundamental support is still acceptable, the price is temporarily stable, follow-up needs to pay close attention to plant maintenance information.

Price Trend

PS market quotations fell slightly, and poor downstream demand is the main factor hindering the overall market climate to improve. Price: GPPS mainstream offer is 10,200-10,600 yuan/ton, HIPS mainstream offer is 10,700-12,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

PS market quotation: Zhanjiang Sino-US PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10050 yuan/ton. CITIC Guoan PS ex-factory price, 525 offer for 9850 yuan/ton. The market turnover and delivery situation is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold.

3. Future Market Forecast

PS market trend is weak. The downstream factories have general inquiries and are mainly cautious. It is expected that PS will operate steadily in general and may increase in a narrow range locally.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite market price declined slightly this week. The weekend price was 2877.78 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from 2888.89 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 7.41% year on year. Recently, the fluorite price has slightly decreased.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industry for fluorite demand has declined, the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, fluorite market is poor, and fluorite plant start-up rate maintained high, but the downstream demand situation. Generally, the spot supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite is on the decline. By the end of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2600-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2700-3 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite declined slightly when the price of fluorite dropped by 1000 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell slightly this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 320 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite fell by 0.48% this week. The decline of market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is a big negative factor in the fluorite market. The domestic fluorite market was affected by the decline. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline, fluorite products on the spot supply is sufficient, the market is poor, fluorite market prices slightly lower.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the domestic fluorite plant has started normal recently, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry keeps falling, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry is worse. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst at business associations, thinks that the price of fluorite will be slightly lower in the later stage, or about 2800 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene oxide fell by 1.56% as of September 23, compared with 22. On September 23, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10800 yuan/ton.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The market price of propylene oxide fell on the 23rd. Purchasing rhythm of downstream polyether market has slowed down, and the supply and demand of the market are basically balanced. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10500 yuan/ton on 23rd, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 108 00 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in eastern China is around 10 600 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10 200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in southern China is around 10 200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene market in Shandong Province remained stable on 23rd. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province remained flat on the 23rd. At present, the market turnover is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7800 yuan/ton. On the 23rd, the downstream polyether market fell with raw materials, weak operation, cold trading atmosphere, strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and limited buying.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that propylene oxide prices stabilized after the fall, propylene oxide manufacturers to actively ship, downstream demand is relatively light, no good support for the time being, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be mainly weak operation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 223.00 yuan/ton, which is 1.62% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 70.79 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride factory quotation for the weekend is 2200 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2260 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Late September potassium chloride market overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of caprolactam in the domestic market continued to rise this month. On September 1st, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 1 2033 yuan/ton, and on September 20th, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 12 600 yuan/ton, up by 4.71%. On September 20, the caprolactam commodity index was 63.37, which was 36.63% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2017-03-02), and 8.96% higher than the 58.16 point on May 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of caprolactam liquid market rebounded in mid-early September. The mainstream price of domestic liquid caprolactam market is 12020-13200 yuan per ton. As of September 20, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 12300 yuan/ton. Cash was discharged from the factory. The first and second phases of caprolactam plant were running normally and the actual transaction was negotiable. The price of caprolactam liquid in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12800 yuan/ton, which was the main contract and 140,000 tons of caprolactam plant was running normally. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 12700 yuan / ton, and the unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance. Domestic caprolactam start-up rate is stable.

Industry chain: The price of cyclohexanone in upstream has risen sharply. On September 20, the reference value of cyclohexanone was 9000.00. Cyclohexanone market rose broadly, Saudi Arabia was attacked during the Mid-Autumn Festival, crude oil soared, pure benzene soared recently, the cost of cyclohexanone was strongly supported, the factory spot supply was normal, and the price was low. Downstream PA6 prices rose. On September 20, the reference price of PA6 was 14666.67. Traders’mainstream offer of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 14666.67 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream demand of the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is limited. In addition, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories tends to expand. Affected by this trend, the supply and demand of PA6 are closely watched by the industry, and the buyers and sellers are gradually cautious in their operation.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association caprolactam believe that the market price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials upstream and insufficient stock. Downstream aggregation factories are actively following the upsurge and stocking up on demand. The price of PA6 slices increased. It is expected that the future caprolactam market will be firm due to increased costs, but it is slightly difficult to continue to rise, so cautious operation is recommended.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the urea ex-factory price in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with an offer of 1840.00 yuan/ton, down 8.61% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was stable this week, with the urea commodity index of 85.58 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory price in Shandong Province is stable. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1820 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1900 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell from 3050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.30%, 23.57% year-on-year; liquid ammonia prices stabilized temporarily this week, quoted at 3193.33 yuan/ton, down 10.80% year-on-year. The cost support of urea is weak and the purchasing capacity of downstream melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In mid-September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in mid-September.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic butanone market continued to rise this week. As of September 12, the overall average price of butanone market was around 9133 yuan/ton based on comprehensive quotations from several mainstream regions. Compared with September 6, the average price of butanone market rose by 1200 yuan/ton, up by 15.13%, up by 2400 yuan/ton, up by 1 September. As high as 35.64%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Last week’s butanone market has been booming. Beginning early this week, the butanone market continues to rise steadily. The factory stock is seriously insufficient. The quotation of distributors in Shandong is 900 yuan higher than that of September 9 and September 12. Dongming Pear Tree Chemical Co. Ltd. increased its quotation by 1100 yuan/ton on September 12 after parking for 3 days at the beginning of this week (September 9). At present, the quotation for butanone is 9300 yuan/ton. At the present stage, most factories are seriously short of stock and short of stock. Most factories and distributors quote prices at pre-sale prices after 2 weeks. Short-term shortage of butanone market still exists. Factory price-stabilizing mentality has risen and spot supply has been depressed. At present, TRADERS’quotations continue to be firm. Changzhou Yeshuo Petrochemical Co., Ltd. sells butanone in stock. On September 12th, butanone is quoted at 9500 yuan/ton; Nantong Zhongkai Chemical Co., Ltd. sells butanone in advance for one week, and on September 12th, butanone is quoted at 9600 yuan/ton. At present, the price of butanone in East China is around 9300-9400 yuan/ton, while that in South China and North China is around 9200-9300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: After the upstream raw material ether, the trend of carbon Tetra (Shandong market) tends to be stable after continuous rise, and the price has been stable due to the influence of favorable or bad factors. The price of the upstream raw material liquefied gas market is stable as a whole, and the quotations of some manufacturers fluctuate slightly. At present, the mainstream price of liquefied gas market in North China is 3450-3600 yuan/ton. About 3,470-3,900 yuan/ton is the mainstream price in Shandong liquefied gas market, and about 3,500 yuan/ton is the mainstream price in East China liquefied gas market.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising on September 11, 2019, which are concentrated in the non-ferrous plate (4 kinds) and the chemical plate (3 kinds). The top three commodities are pure benzene (3.42%), silver (1.62%) and pig (1.20%). There were 14 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, focusing on non-ferrous (3 kinds in total) and agricultural and sideline (3 kinds in total). The first three commodities falling were eggs (-3.93%), liquefied natural gas (-0.88%) and WTI crude oil (-0.78%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.04%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that the current shortage of butanone supply in many factories, pre-sold goods, it is expected that in late September, the butanone market will still be in a strong upward state.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices have risen sharply and plasticizer prices have risen recently. As of September 9, the price of DOP in East China was 7566.67 yuan/ton, up 3.18% from 7333.33 yuan/ton in early September, and down 19.43% from the same period last year. DOP prices are lower than in previous years, DOP still has room to rise.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

This week, the price of DOP’s external quotation has risen sharply, which is good for the DOP market. DOP in China quoted 900 US dollars per ton this week, up 10 US dollars per ton from last week’s price of 890 US dollars per ton, DOP in Southeast Asia price of 1130 US dollars per ton, price stabilization compared with last week; DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer enterprises maintained, demand rose, overall plasticizer DOP market has a certain advantage.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

For raw materials, the price trend of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the price of octanol has also warmed up, and the overall cost of DOP has risen sharply. The pressure of DOP rise in the future market is huge, and it is expected that the market will rise mainly after DOP.

On the downstream demand side, the price of PVC has been warming up recently, and the demand for PVC has risen. Overall, the DOP market in the future is good, and the DOP rising space in the future increases.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst, believes that DOP raw material prices have risen sharply in recent years, DOP costs have risen, and the pressure of DOP increases in the future market has increased; on the demand side, the overall market of the plastic industry has warmed up, which is beneficial to the idling of plasticizer market, and the rising space of DOP in the future has increased; on the external side, DOP prices have risen slightly, which is beneficial to DOP. Good but limited. Overall, the sharp rise in raw materials led to the increase in DOP costs, DOP has a greater momentum, and the revival of the plastic industry also provides room for the rise of DOP, DOP prices are expected to rise sharply in the future.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was supported by raw materials and went up broadly. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) was 2880 yuan/ton, and the weekend average price was 3040 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 5.56%, which was 35.11% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market rose sharply this week. In the early period, the domestic supply was excessive as a whole. In addition, August was the off-season of market demand and the terminal consumption was slow. Cost methanol and liquefied petroleum gas market trend is weak, bearish market mentality, downstream market entry caution, wait-and-see, prices continue to bottom. The off-season ends and enters September. Influenced by the gas market, it ushered in the traditional sales peak season. The market demand will improve, but there is no obvious improvement at present. The main reason for this rebound is the strong rise of raw material methanol, the rise in cost has seriously reduced the profits of dimethyl ether enterprises, some enterprises have been in a loss state, so there has been a stop-drop rebound. This week, Henan Heart-to-Heart End Bottom Guarantee, Wednesday began to lead the rally, tentative upward, the market response is still acceptable, manufacturers shipment situation improved, the latter continued to rise, small factories around have followed the rally. Influenced by the rising cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether Market is strong, with a rise of 5.56% in the week.

Industry chain:
Methanol: This week, the domestic methanol market is on the strong side, driven by the rise in futures prices, the trading atmosphere in the mainland is good, the price is advancing with the trend. The main producing areas have increased by 90-130 yuan/ton this week, and North China, Shandong and other places have followed. The Harbor was on the strong side of the shocks. The harbor rose by 100 yuan/ton this week. The total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 23.613 million tons, an increase of 93.7 million tons over the same period last week, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing area have been increased since August. In methanol to olefins, Ningbo Fude and Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO plants have resumed normal production.

Liquefied Gas: This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market has been narrowly adjusted, and the fluctuation is not obvious. At the beginning of the week, crude oil fell for two consecutive days, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the downstream consumption rate increased slowly. Most of the manufacturers’inventories are above the middle level. Shandong market yields slightly and deliveries mainly. Thursday’s surge in international crude oil boosted the liquefied petroleum gas market, but it was not obvious. Manufacturers stopped falling and maintained stability, guaranteed priority for shipments, and the trading atmosphere in the market was tepid in the week. September is the traditional sales season, spot market trend with signs of recovery, but the downstream consumption rate is not as fast as expected.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the cost: methanol market is expected to show a regional market next week, the trend will be reflected in the stable rise and fall; liquefied gas market downstream consumption rate is slow, expected to rise steadily in the next week. Demand: Dimethyl ether Market actual demand is still weak, next week Hebei Jichun and Qinyang Shengxin resumed production, increased supply, market negative. However, due to the impact of the traditional gas market sales peak season, there is still some support for the market. Expect future market or narrow upstream.

Price data

This week (9.2-9.6) the price of petroleum coke fell sharply. According to the data of business associations, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1 232.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 1 242.20 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 9.40 yuan/ton in the week and down 0.76%.

On September 6, the petroleum coke commodity index was 96.62, up 0.32 points from yesterday, down 37.90% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 44.45% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke shipments are stable this week, prices remain stable as a whole, and stocks remain low and medium.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was $55.10 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and $56.30 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 2.18%; Brent crude oil was $60.43 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $60.95 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 0.86%. Tension of international trade relations, U.S. crude oil production and stock boost affect the trend of international crude oil. Downstream: In the pre-festival stock-up stage of carbon enterprises in September, they basically received the goods according to plan. The delivery of calcined coke was basically stable this week. The electrolytic aluminium market had no obvious favorable support, and most of them purchased on demand. According to business association data, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of September 6 was 14413.33 yuan per ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35 th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 9 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling are coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%). This week’s average rise and fall was 1.05%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that the market price of petroleum coke has risen slightly this week. At present, refinery stocks are low. Carbon enterprises basically take delivery according to plan. The market of calcined coke and electrolytic aluminium has no obvious favorable support. Most of them are purchased on demand. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will be stable next week. Some enterprises will fluctuate slightly, and the price range is about 1200-1300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of polysilicon market in this week (8.26-30) has not changed much compared with last week, slightly declined, up 0.45%. The market as a whole shows signs of stabilization and stabilization. Over the weekend, domestic enterprises quoted an average of 59,000-62,000 yuan/ton, and the current price has fallen by about 30% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

The domestic polycrystalline silicon market is stable this week. The price has not changed much compared with last week. At present, the supply and demand in August are still in a relatively balanced state. Only the source of imports is affected by RMB exchange rate adjustment, and the price of RMB is slightly increased by US dollar-denominated imports. At present, the domestic price of polycrystalline silicon solar grade grade grade grade I material is between 5900-62000 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply and demand, as far as polycrystalline silicon is concerned, the supply is basically balanced, while the downstream demand is still slightly insufficient, so the price has not improved significantly. First of all: from the supply point of view, the actual stock in the market is not large. Two overseas silicon factories are expected to return to full production in September, while one or two domestic silicon factories are expected to be repaired, with a steady slight increase in supply. In addition, in terms of demand, downstream demand is stable at present, the overall domestic demand has not yet warmed up, and the purchase of conventional size batteries is still at a low level. In addition, although the demand for conventional size batteries is still low, the demand for large size batteries and double-sided PERC batteries is warming up, with the increase of demand. Many component factories have upgraded their production lines and higher wattage products are needed in the terminal market. It is expected that the actual shipments of large size batteries and double-sided batteries will also increase significantly in the fourth quarter.

In the future, business analysts believe that the current performance of the polysilicon market is unsatisfactory, the market as a whole lacks reasons for market breakthroughs, market demand and supply are not strong, and ultimately the downstream demand lacks substantial advantages. In addition, the Sino-US trade war led to the imposition of tariffs on China’s photovoltaic products, which also depressed domestic manufacturers. Initiative, polysilicon will inevitably be affected. It is expected that the market will remain narrow adjustment in the near future. With the increase of equipment maintenance in September, price rebound due to tight supply will not be excluded in the later period.

Commodity index: Polyaluminium chloride commodity index on August 30 was 108.11, unchanged from yesterday, 0.83% lower than the cycle peak of 109.01 points (2019-08-28), and 7.15% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: Among the manufacturers monitored by the main stream of business associations, the price of polyaluminium chloride rose significantly in the middle and late August. On August 19, the price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 1933.33 yuan/ton, and on the 30th day, the price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was 2000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45%. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is: the price of solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (> 28%) containing tax is about 1850-2200 yuan/ton, the price of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) containing tax is about 350-500 yuan/ton, and the quotation of individual manufacturers is rising, among which the solid quotation is about 350-500 yuan/ton. Up 100-200 yuan/ton, liquid up to 50 yuan/ton or so, domestic mainstream quotation overall up by 2-4%.

Industry chain: In recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid is stable this week. Business society monitoring data show that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid market was 133.33 yuan/ton on the 19th, 123.33 yuan/ton on the 30th and 10 yuan/ton on the 30th. The downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is stable. At present, some polyaluminium chloride manufacturers are still in the shutdown period, relying on inventory to deliver goods, giving priority to the consumption of old downstream customers, and the supply of new customers is affected.

Industry: 1. Notice of shutdown: In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “Notice of shutdown” recently. The notice requests: According to the analysis of environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the municipal attack and fortification office requests all enterprises in-depth control to stop production and control before acceptance. Production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance according to key problems. This week, local manufacturers said they were allowed to resume production for 10 days and asked to stop production again from the 15th. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance.

Attachment: Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that due to the impact of environmental shutdown, manufacturers in Gongyi District of Henan Province have a holiday, downstream demand is stable, polyaluminium chloride manufacturers can only give priority to inventory supply to old customers, supply is tight, new customers find it difficult to get goods, prices rise significantly. September 8 is approaching, Gongyi factory supply situation eased after the resumption of production, prices will fall, it is expected that the resumption period will continue to maintain the current price; Hebei and other provinces prices have been relatively stable.

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on August 30, with a small fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of carbon black was mainly volatile.

Market quotation

Domestic carbon black sales are still acceptable, the quotation is still mainly stable. Domestic automotive industry production and marketing data showed a continuous decline, demand decline and other adverse factors, the company’s downstream tire industry start-up and purchasing willingness declined; upstream carbon black raw oil by the coking industry capacity contraction, prices have always maintained high operation, comprehensive factors led to the company’s main product carbon black gross interest rate declined, half a year. Year-on-year performance declined.

Industry dynamics

China Rubber Industry Association Carbon Black Branch issued the “Carbon Black Industry Self-Discipline Initiative”. The Initiative said that since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has experienced unprecedented difficulties and the whole industry has suffered losses. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of the carbon black industry, enterprises are encouraged to consciously limit their production and limit their production range. According to the market demand, on the basis of the original output, the production is limited by 10%-20%, ensuring the balance of supply and demand in the market; stabilizing the market of carbon black raw oil and not participating in the bad competitive behavior of driving up the price of raw oil; stabilizing the market sales and selling according to the reasonable profit space; and also requiring that China’s carbon black exported to the international market should not compete disorderly. 。

Future market forecast: Carbon black market is expected to rebound in the future stable market.

I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province on August 27 was 4866 yuan/ton, and the price continued to be stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800-4900 yuan/ton with tax, which is stable. Nanjing Qianrui Chemical Co., Ltd. quotes 4200 yuan/ton of polyformaldehyde (92) with tax. Affected by environmental protection inspection factors in recent years, the factory started work abnormally and intermittently, and the quotation of the factory is still firm.

Industry chain: The price of methanol on August 27 is basically stable, and the downstream demand of polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

Polyformaldehyde analysts believe that due to the impact of environmental inspections, inventory is not much, in the short term, the market of polyformaldehyde will continue to maintain stable operation.

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price declined this week, the price at the end of the week was 11,150 yuan/ton, down 2.45% from 11,430 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and up 3.16% from the same period last year.

Products: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined this week, the situation of manufacturers in the field has not improved significantly in the near future, the starting rate of downstream refrigerant industry remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high starting rate, the domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers are downgraded from the factory. Price, by the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while in the northern market, the price of hydrofluoric acid is 10,500-11,500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, the demand of refrigerant industry downstream is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 10 000-11 000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was between 10 000-11 000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid declined.

Industry chain: The price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased this week. The factory price of fluorite was 3062.5 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The fluorite price dropped by 0.41% this week. The domestic fluorite supply is normal, but the price of fluorite has a downward trend. The downstream cost price has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic refrigerant R134a market demand is low and prices continue to decline. On the supply side, the production enterprises have started construction steadily and the supply of goods in the market is stable. On the demand side, downstream demand is more weak, manufacturers are forced to ship under pressure, so profit delivery phenomenon is obvious, but the on-site transaction market is general, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream demand only declines, downstream demand is not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid declines. Aluminum fluoride price trend of downstream products is temporarily stable in the near future, which is 10 333.33 yuan per ton at the weekend. The price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining due to the poor market.

Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the trading market of refrigerant industry in the downstream market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has a downward trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower next week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be between 108,000 and 11,000 yuan/ton. About.

Price Trend

According to the number. This week, the average price of urea mainstream manufacturers increased from 1818.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1828.33 yuan/ton on August 21, up 10 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. After two days, the price fell to 1818.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 7.49% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose first and then fell this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.57 on August 23.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1755 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quotation first rose from 1780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810 yuan/ton on August 21, up by 30 yuan/ton, the price persisted two days later fell to 1800 yuan/ton at the weekend, overall, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation increased by 20 yuan/ton; Minghua Chemical Weekend quotation 1900 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 20 yuan / ton, to the price 10 days ago. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: The upstream products have risen on the whole, but the increase is not significant. The price of natural gas has risen from 3003.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3090.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.89%, but a decrease of 16.96% compared with the previous year. The price of liquid ammonia has risen from 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.31%, an increase of 1.44% compared with the previous year. Urea cost support is strong, downstream purchasing capacity of melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late August, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness is greatly reduced. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up costs are gradually increasing, which makes the price of urea market difficult to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late August.

Price trends:

On August 23, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 56.48, up 1.11 points from yesterday, down 44.63% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 26.75% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic hydrobenzene market fell this week (8.19-8.23). The average domestic market price was 4883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 516.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.78%.

Domestic market: This week, market favorable factors are concentrated, pure benzene external market has risen one after another, crude benzol prices in the upstream have risen significantly, with a weekly increase of about 500 yuan/ton. In recent years, the price difference between crude benzene and hydrobenzene is obvious, and profits have increased. Hydrobenzene enterprises have started construction more actively. As of Friday, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong rose to 5100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week. Eastern China rose to 5200 yuan per ton and 100 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: International oil prices rose first and then fell this week. Overall, compared with last Friday, Brent rose by 2.9%, WTI rose by 1.62%. Oil prices rose as global stock markets rebounded and geopolitical tensions intensified. Oil prices stopped rising and fell because of uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate cut prospects. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, due to the supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, pure benzene in Korea was arbitraged to the United States. The high price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar plate supported the rise of domestic pure benzene price. On Thursday, the supply of pure benzene in eastern China was tight. Pure benzene companies in Shandong sent their supplies to Eastern China, and the prices of refined pure benzene in Shandong rose.

3. Trend forecast:

Recently, coking enterprises started relatively stable, at about 70%, the pressure of environmental protection is still high near the National Day. It is difficult for coking enterprises to rebound greatly. The crude benzene supply is still tight, but the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected that the future growth space of crude benzene industry chain is limited, and the high level of hydrobenzene consolidation.

Price Trend

The domestic xylene market rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.86%, due to the support of downstream demand, according to a large number of business associations.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by downstream demand support, xylene market rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5900-5950 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the turnover has improved slightly this week. Compared with last week, the port stock has dropped by nearly 8,000 tons, and now it is about 52,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by long-term and short-term Treasury bond interest rate upside-down signals fearing the impact of the U.S. recession, and Trump’s impact on China’s $300 billion trade postponement, reduction and exemption and tariff increase, jumped sharply this week compared with last week, with a larger fluctuation, but overall stable, spot Brent rose slightly by 0.02%, Brent futures fell by 0.27%, WTI. Futures rose 0.09%, Dubai futures rose 2.66%.

Downstream, PX market, external prices rose slightly, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, affected by downstream polyester rework, demand is expected to turn better, PTA is expected to rebound slightly in the short term. On the OX market, external quotation fell, downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer market fell under pressure, and short-term trend of o-phenyl is expected to be negative.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the United States and Iraq, and the follow-up progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. The European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Overall, the toluene market is expected to continue to shake slightly next Tuesday.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been declining continuously in recent days. The average price of enterprises on Friday (August 16) was 7741 yuan/ton. Today (August 19) it has dropped to 7435 yuan/ton. The four-day decline has again reached 3.95%. This is the second half-week dive in propylene market since August, exceeding 3%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declined continuously from 5 days to 8 days, declined 450-500 yuan/ton, rebounded on 10 days, rose 200 yuan/ton on 14 days, stabilized on 15 days, declined sharply on 17 days, and went 300 yuan/ton on three days. At present, the market turnover is about 7400-7650 yuan/ton. The mainstream price is about 7400 yuan/ton. Affected by typhoon recently, loading of some upstream and downstream enterprises in Shandong Province was blocked last week and the turnover was low. Now most of them have returned to normal, and the volume of propylene shipments has increased. Propylene supply in Shandong is abundant due to the continuous supply of Northeast China’s large factories.

Industry chain: In the upstream, international crude oil rose sharply last week and then fell sharply. Although there was a slight recovery in the later period, market expectations were not satisfactory, which had a negative impact on propylene. On the downstream side, the recent polypropylene futures market is relatively depressed, which has little impact on propylene. Recent sharp fall in propylene prices has made downstream factories more cautious in purchasing, mainly in need, and refinery shipment pressure continues to rise, which has warmed up the mood of profit and expenditure.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that in general, international crude oil is not ideal in the near future. Spot prices in PP period are relatively cold. Loading of enterprises has resumed and shipments have increased. The supply of Northeast China’s large factories has made Shandong’s propylene supply more abundant. Prices have fallen sharply, and downstream purchases are just needed. Propylene prices are expected to continue to fall in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene oxide has risen this week. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China is 10400-11050 yuan/ton, which is 3.23% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 8.31% higher than that on August 1.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Propylene oxide market prices rose this week. Affected by typhoons and rainstorms, some propylene oxide plants are downloaded, parked, low inventory, no pressure on manufacturers to move goods, mainstream factory prices are firm, quotations are mostly raised, and market intentions are obvious. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10750 yuan/ton on 16th, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 11050 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10750 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10500 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in North China is around 10400 yuan/ton, which is remitted to the factory.

Industry Chain: The market price of propylene in Shandong upstream rose this week. Prices of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, declining continuously from 5 to 8 days, totaling 450-500 yuan/ton, rising from 14 days to 14 days, and stabilizing from 15 days. Currently, the market turnover is about 7650-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton. Downstream polyether market to digest high-priced raw materials is still weak, propylene oxide is mostly just needed to purchase, digestion inventory is the main.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that rising propylene prices in the upstream have a certain cost support for propylene oxide, and narrowing supply side is an important factor in the rise of propylene oxide, but downstream factories are under pressure to purchase, and terminal demand is weak to follow up. It is expected that the market of propylene oxide will be dominated by high-level finishing operation next week. The key point is still to pay close attention to the main plant.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has been declining in a straight line in recent days, with the average price of propylene (Shandong) at the beginning of the week being 7,875 yuan/ton, while the average price of propylene (Shandong) on Friday was 7,525 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.45%, 5.69% compared with last weekend (August 3).

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province maintained stable in early August, and began to fall continuously on the 5th day. It dropped 450-500 yuan/ton on the 8th day. Today, it is stable as a whole. At present, the market turnover is around 7480-7650 yuan/ton, the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan/ton, and the low-end price has been revised back. The supply of refineries has increased, the inventory is moderately high, and there is a certain pressure on shipment.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by the international situation, the international crude oil declined significantly in the first few days of this week, and the crude oil recovered significantly on Thursday. If we can maintain the upward trend, or have some support for propylene. Downstream, due to the sharp drop in propylene prices, downstream PP powder, butyl octanol and acrylic acid and other profits have increased, the start-up rate is still acceptable. This week, polypropylene futures prices are not ideal, spot prices have also declined, which has no positive effect on propylene for the time being; acrylic acid prices are flat all the way, which has little impact on propylene; while propylene oxide plant plant has a good negative effect, resulting in a rise in mid-week prices, which has a partial positive impact on propylene; and the epichlorohydrin market declined early in the week. Nearly 5% has a negative impact on propylene, while butyl octanol unit has decreased its negative impact and the market has increased slightly since last weekend, which has a slightly positive impact on propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch believes that: overall, the recent international crude oil market is unstable, the weekend rebound, big changes, PP spot market is not ideal, downstream profit margin has improved, start-up rate is good, but refinery inventory is slightly higher, shipment pressure is still large, propylene prices are expected to rebound in the near future or a small amount. Between.

PVC trading is tepid, market consolidation, price trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6722 yuan/ton on August 5, domestic PVC quoted 6705 yuan/ton on August 9, and the overall price fluctuation ranged from 50 to 100 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.26%. This week, PVC market consolidation was the main trend.

II. Cause Analysis

Product: This week, the price of PVC futures fell first and then rose, driving the spot price to follow the trend of the market. The actual spot delivery atmosphere is not warm, resulting in narrow price consolidation of PVC. Narrow price volatility, downstream buyers wait-and-see attitude, just need to purchase, as of August 10 domestic mainstream PVC quotation range 6550-6900 yuan/ton.

Industry: The rubber and plastic index was 678 on August 9, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.04% from the peak of 1060 in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 17.71% from the lowest point of 576 on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week, commodity market is mainly narrow consolidation, the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry is weak downward.

 
3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the demand for PVC terminals is just in demand in the near future. The actual trading of PVC market is general and macroeconomic stability is maintained. In the short term, PVC market consolidation is expected to dominate. Supply-demand game dominates the price trend. The mainstream price of PVC 5 is expected to be 6500-7000 yuan/ton. Mainly

Price Trend

Lead market continued to rise this week (08.05-08.09). The average domestic market price was 16237.50 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 16700 yuan per ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.85%.

On August 9, the lead commodity index was 101.64, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 24.15% from the peak of 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 36.19% from the low of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot lead market as a whole rose, with a cumulative increase of about 400 yuan/ton, mainly driven by the futures market. This week, Lun lead and Shanghai lead rebounded at the bottom, showing a good trend, Lun lead rose more, and Shanghai lead followed. Up to Friday, the mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai was maintained at about 16700-16900 yuan/ton. The market brand lead was concentrated in Jinsha lead in Shanghai, Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Minshan, Guangdong Nanhua lead, and Henan Yuguang. In terms of start-up, environmental protection in many places was strictly checked. Most factories in Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other places stopped or reduced production. Most of them are purchased on demand. The price of downstream batteries keeps rising, and the market gradually enters the peak season. In terms of lifting and discounting, the spot lifting range of this week is narrower than last week, with a set of Yunxi lifting range of 800-1200 yuan/ton, an ordinary cloud lifting range of 500-1000 yuan/ton and a small-brand lifting range of 200-500 yuan/ton.

Domestic events:

Nine departments of Sichuan Province jointly launched a special campaign on pollution prevention and control of waste lead-acid batteries: Recently, according to the requirements of the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of nine ministries and commissions (bureaus) on the issuance of the “Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries” (Solid State Environmental Protection Office No. 3, 2019), Sichuan Provincial Department of Ecological Environment, Development and Reform Commission The Nine Departments of the Council of Commissioners, the Department of Economy and Information, the Public Security Department, the Judicial Department, the Finance Department, the Transportation Department, the Provincial Taxation Administration, the Provincial Market Supervision and Administration, and the Commerce Department jointly issued the Action Plan for Preventing and Controlling the Pollution of Waste Lead Batteries in Sichuan Province. It is clear that by the end of 2020, the province will basically realize the standardized collection of waste lead Full coverage will be achieved in key counties (districts and municipalities) of the collection network, and the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach more than 40%. By 2025, the standard collection rate of waste lead-acid batteries will reach more than 70%, and the safe utilization and disposal of waste lead-acid batteries collected will be standardized.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the performance of basic metals first restrained and then increased. The offshore renminbi “unexpectedly” broke seven, while the US Treasury Department classified China as a currency manipulator. China-US relations deteriorated further. Subjects such as stock markets and bonds in the global financial system suffered a systematic slump. Gold continued to soar. Commodities fell sharply at the beginning of the week. Then, when the US dollar fell, the market panicked. Emotions gradually recovered, commodities showed a low rebound, repair the upward trend, most of the weekend recovered some of the early week’s decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s economic data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated, and worries in the macro environment are not recovering. This week’s low rebound has lifted most metals out of the trough. However, the sustained rebound still needs the promotion of each metal’s own fundamentals and the degree of favor of funds. We should be alert to the gradual withdrawal of large-scale capital into the market in the next week. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels next week, but it is not ruled out that the high may fall.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market price of aniline in Nanjing remained stable this week compared with last week’s, rising by 100 yuan/ton on the 5th day and returning on the 6th day; the market price in Shandong fell by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, a decline of 1.25%. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5500 yuan/ton, while that in Nanjing is 5900 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Raw Material: About 156,000 tons of pure benzene are in stock at the port this week, up from last week. Influenced by bad news such as crude oil, pure benzol and the softer downstream market, the traders are cautious and wait-and-see in the downstream market.

Product: This week raw material pure benzene Market weakened again, aniline cost surface support weakened. And the downstream demand is weak, and the follow-up to aniline is insufficient. The market price of aniline increased by 100 yuan/ton on the 5th day in East China due to the favorable factors of cargo ship delivery, but the market was still light, and decreased by 100 yuan/ton on the 6th. This week, aniline companies mainly reduce prices to inventory.

III. Future Market Expectations

Raw Material: At present, downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, the overall procurement enthusiasm is not high, although the previous inventory has declined, but considering that with the shrinking of the Asia-American window, subsequent arrivals will continue to increase, which will drag down the market recovery.

The hot weather, low downstream start-up rate, lack of support for aniline prices. It is reported that King King of Jinling has a parking maintenance plan, which provides good support for the price of aniline in Shandong, but the support is expected to be limited.

Aniline is expected to run weakly and steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6366.67 yuan/ton (including tax) as of August 8, and the price in mainstream areas was 83.34 yuan/ton (including tax) higher than that of last Friday (August 2). The weekly average price was 1.33% higher than that of last Friday (including tax). At present, the mainstream price range of n-butanol in China is 6200-6500 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the price of domestic butanol market continued to move steadily, slightly upward. The good maintenance of the plant still has an impact on the market. The firms offer more firm, the mainstream factories sell smoothly, the market activity atmosphere is more peaceful, the mainstream quotation in North China is around 6450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation in East China is around 6600 yuan./ Near ton.

Industry chain: The market price of propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has fallen considerably this week. In early August, the propylene market operated steadily until August 5, when it began to fall, it dropped by 350 yuan/ton to August 7. At present, the market turnover is about 7550-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7600 yuan/ton. Downstream factories are still in need of purchasing, refinery shipment pressure continues to rise, warming up the mood for profit and expenditure, further weakening the macro-market, the market for propylene is bad, propylene prices are expected to decline in recent days.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will remain strong in the near future.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market continued to be strong this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8890 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 9267 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 4.25%, which was 25.92% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to strengthen upward, Sinopec East and South China prices continued to rise 400 yuan/ton to 9700 yuan/ton, Sinopec North China and Central China prices followed up to 9300 yuan/ton, and Northern export manufacturers quoted 9500-9800 yuan/ton. Within a week, the export of goods in Northeast China was limited, only 338 tons of goods in Huajin were exported. The shortage of spot supply continued to bring obvious support to the market. The short-term sustained increase boosted the enthusiasm of replenishing warehouses downstream. The supply price of manufacturers kept rising and the overall market was pushing upward. With the strong rise of butadiene, the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, and business mentality improved, the overall market climate improved. Inventory of tank farm in East China is low, the position of middlemen is limited, and the mentality of reluctance to sell is obvious. The news that Sinopec’s supply price in East China continues to rise has boosted the market, and the market quotation is high.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, the domestic dry rubber factory price slightly increased, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 sheet price 10200-10400 yuan/ton, 100-250 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene oil rubber 1712 sheet price 9300-9450 yuan/ton, 100-150 yuan/ton higher than last period. The price of Qilu 1502E has risen by 350 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; Qilu 1712 has risen by 9600 yuan/ton; Qilu 1502E has risen by 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high-cis-butadiene rubber mainstream ex-factory prices rose to 10,420-10,600 yuan/ton range, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; market mainstream prices rose to 10,700-11,100 yuan/ton range, compared with last week’s mainstream prices rose by 100-200 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, domestic manufacturers’inventory is low, spot supply is tight, and the downstream market is rising slightly. On the negative side, the profit of synthetic rubber bears pressure, and some downstream manufacturers plan to reduce production. Spot resources in Northeast China are shrinking, and market supply continues to drive up the market. With the rapid increase of butadiene and the narrowing of the price gap between butadiene and downstream synthetic rubber, the profit pressure of downstream butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene industries is obvious. Recently, a few manufacturers have heard that they plan to reduce the volume or drag the market of butadiene in the later period. However, the supply side of short-term butadiene market is strong, and the supply price of Sinopec continues to rise. Business Association butadiene analysts expect the domestic butadiene market to remain strong next week, and suggest that attention should be paid to manufacturers’prices and trading conditions.

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8333 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.60% in the month. Prices fell by 30.56% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In July, the cyclohexanone market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The raw material pure benzene market continues to rise, the cost side has a certain degree of support. The downstream caprolactam market prices are stable, moderate and upward, and Shenyuan, Hengyi and other factories purchase normally. There is no spot export in Luxi for the time being, and the overall spot supply is tight. In the latter ten days, the pure benzene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, and the pressure of high-price caprolactam shipment was on the high side. Some factories reduced the purchasing volume of cyclohexanone. In addition, the spot export of Luxi further aggravated the decline in the market price of cyclohexanone. The demand for solvent market was general in the month, and traders just needed to purchase, and market transactions were concluded. The atmosphere was flat.

Industry Chain: Raw Material: Pure Benzene: This month, the price of pure Benzene rebounded rapidly and fell back. Price is mainly affected by the trend of external market. As a result, the price of external market in the first 4-5 months was much higher than that in China, the import of pure benzene in June-July dropped sharply; some domestic reforming and disproportionation units were reduced due to cost reasons, and some large factories were converted to small-order supplementary contracts. Affected by the above reasons, domestic pure benzene supply was reduced, and port stock was reduced from 210,000 tons at the end of June to 155,000 tons at the end of July. Caprolactam: In July, the domestic caprolactam liquid market rose as a whole, slightly softening towards the end of the month. In July, the nylon industry chain as a whole was in a recovery situation. On the one hand, at the end of June, the G20 Summit of Chinese and American leaders released a positive signal. The US tariff of 325 billion US dollars was not levied on China for the time being, which boosted the market mentality and boosted the commodity market. On the other hand, at the end of June, the prices of caprolactam and PA6 slices fell to a new low, and the downstream purchase risk was not high. In addition, due to the market decline in the previous few months, the downstream purchase was concentrated at the end of June when the prices were low. The factory inventory eased and the peripheral good boosted, which led to the July market rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, 43 kinds of commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 23 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 27.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (47.32%), phosphoric acid (26.94%) and hydrochloric acid (23.33%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 11.9% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-16.39%), sulfur (-13.71%) and bromine (-9.66%). This month’s average rise and fall was 2.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the spot supply of cyclohexanone plant fluctuates little, while the demand for downstream caprolactam may decrease, and the solvent market just needs to be purchased. Considering cost pressures, analysts of Cyclohexanone, a business firm, predict that the short-term market for Cyclohexanone will weaken by a limited margin. In the long run, new production capacity may be released in August, showing a pattern of supply exceeding demand.

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic market for 1# lead ingots shocked, with an average price of 16106.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16650 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.38%.

On July 31, the lead commodity index was 100.38, down 0.95 points from yesterday, down 25.10% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and up 34.50% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: This month, the spot lead market overall shocks higher, in mid-July ushered in a wave of gains, mainly driven by the futures market, Lunqian eased trade tensions between China and the United States, the Federal Reserve expected to increase the probability of interest rate cuts, Pierre Port lead refinery delayed the resumption of production and other multiple good news stimulated, three consecutive daily results. The weekly increase of body length was 4.98%. Driven by this, Shanghai lead started to reach 16,450 yuan/ton on the 10th or so, reaching a new high in recent two months. Spot market was boosted and began to enter the ascending channel. However, downstream demand has not yet been liberalized. The downstream battery industry is mainly on the lookout, purchasing cautiously, and the rise in spot market is limited. On the 15th, with the expected global interest rate cut, the US dollar rose and fell. The domestic economic data for half a year showed that the economy was stable. The bull capital came into the market strongly. The basic metals were flushed red all over the line under the financial impetus. Lunqian rose continuously to US$2070/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.6% and a cumulative increase of about 9.3% in Lunqian in two weeks. Shanghai lead was driven by four consecutive Lianyang, up to 16,700 yuan/ton, a 3.5% weekly increase. The main trading range of spot lead is 16000-16575 yuan/ton, up about 500 yuan/ton. However, downstream battery companies are afraid of high-prudent mining, market turnover is poor, market confidence is inadequate, downstream manufacturers are less willing to hoard goods, mainly on-demand procurement, due to the lack of downstream support, spot lead prices are insufficient momentum to rise, downward shocks, restore the trend of shocks.

Supply and demand: According to a report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on July 16, global lead supply in May turned into an excess of 13,400 tons and a shortage of 30,800 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global lead market was short of 42,000 tons, compared with 34,000 tons in the same period last year.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on July 17, the global lead market supply gap was 162,000 tons in January-May 2019 and 280,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. By the end of May, the total stock was 19,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to May 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 5.177 million tons, an increase of 9.8% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated at 2.462 million tons, an increase of 499,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 13,000 tons from January to May 2019. In May 2019, the output of refined lead was 1023,400 tons and the consumption was 103,06,000 tons.

Domestic events:

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: List of 7 lead-acid battery enterprises revoked by the announcement: According to “Standard Conditions for Lead-acid Battery Industry (2015 edition)” and “Management Measures for Lead-acid Battery Industry Announcement (2015 edition)”, the announcement (No. 5 in 2016, No. 38 in 2016, No. 20 in 2017) will be withdrawn from the announcement (No. 5 in 2016, No. 38 in 2016, No. 20 in 2017). The list of seven lead-acid battery enterprises sold will be announced.

Environmental protection “imperial mission” to start again! Central ecological environmental protection supervision involves central enterprises for the first time: Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a message that the second round of the first batch of central ecological environmental protection supervision will be launched in full in the near future. Eight central ecological environment protection supervision teams have been set up to supervise and stationed in six provinces and two central enterprises.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

The downstream battery industry continues to digest Pre-Inventory mainly, affected by high temperature, blocked plans to improve production capacity, feared high emotions, and lacked downstream support. It is expected that spot lead prices will still be mainly shocky.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market rose in July. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 3596 yuan/ton, which was 2.86% higher than that of 3496 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The demand of asphalt market improved in July, and the international oil price shocks warmed up. The price of asphalt market showed an upward trend.

Industry chain: In July, tense U.S. -Iraq relations, the Gulf of Mexico storm, worries about oversupply and other air news intertwined. The international crude oil market rises first, then falls and then rises, showing a general trend of shock and warming, supporting the price of asphalt market.

Asphalt market: After the strong price increase in mid-July in Northeast China, the price remained stable, and the traders mainly relied on the digestive inventory. The sales orders of asphalt in Shandong continue to be booming, and the refinery’s pick-up volume continues to be high. At the same time, some refineries stop production and reduce production to support the price of asphalt at the supply side. At the end of the rainy season in East China, following the pace of Shandong Province, the demand of traders for hoarding goods and the real demand of the terminal jointly led to hot spot transactions, which promoted the price of domestic asphalt market to rise.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business association, believes that the international crude oil market is heading for a better position, while the domestic asphalt market is entering a peak season, and the price of asphalt is expected to continue to rise in August.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of urea mainstream producers dropped from 1916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1913.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price of urea mainstream producers dropped by 3.34 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%, an increase of 1.16% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 88.99 on July 26.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1870 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing weekend quoted 1860 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 10 yuan/ton; Mingshui Chemical Industry quoted 2010 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable. Recent environmental protection inspection atmosphere in China has eased, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has risen, and the plant load is still acceptable.

Market demand: Agricultural demand in Shandong has passed, although there is a phenomenon of fertilizer supplementation, but relatively few, along with the downstream demand decline, urea prices have slowly declined. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: Upstream natural gas prices rose slightly, liquid ammonia market rose slightly, urea cost support was strong, which had a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

Low urea prices consolidated in late July. After the adjustment in June, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that the current domestic urea market is affected by environmental protection and raw material costs. With the recovery of urea enterprise start-up rate, coupled with the current agricultural demand climax has passed, the downstream game atmosphere of the market is strong and start-up costs are gradually increasing, leading to the difficulty of maintaining urea market prices. It is expected that urea prices will be difficult to maintain in late July. Or low consolidation.

Price Trend

This week (7.22-7.26) the “V” trend of the domestic 1 # tin ingot market. The average price of the domestic market was 13635 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 13617.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.14%.

On July 26, the tin commodity index was 69.35, up 0.44 points from yesterday, down 30.82% from the peak of 100.25 points in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 61.81% from the low of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot tin market first restrained and then rose, showing a “V” trend as a whole. As of Friday, the mainstream price of domestic spot tin was 135000-137000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week. Tin ingots on the first three days of this week followed the period of low tin, and on Thursday, the price of tin rebounded, but the downstream entered the view. Looking forward to the atmosphere, business is limited. In the aspect of lifting and discharging water, the suit brand Yunxi lifting water is 1000-1500 yuan/ton, the ordinary Yunzi lifting water is 500-1200 yuan/ton, and the small brand lifting water is 400-800 yuan/ton.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the dollar soared near 97.9, crude oil high fell, basic metals after last week’s bulls dominated the market have come out of the breakthrough market, this week, there are many profit cuts out of the market, short homeopathic pressure situation, most of the metal appears in varying degrees of decline and decline.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week is the last few trading days of late July. It is difficult for cash pressure to keep the spot market active. However, due to the market waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve interest rate reduction meeting and the good expectations of the new progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, it is expected that the broad volatility of spot tin prices will dominate next week.