1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s large list, the average price of lithium hydroxide enterprises on March 13 was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, and the focus of market negotiation was stable. In a three-month cycle, it fell 1.16% year-on-year. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price will be discussed in a single way. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

On March 12, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 135.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.43% from 381.48 (2016-09-12), the highest point in the cycle, and up 35.71% from 100.00, the lowest point on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: in the near future, the price of lithium carbonate market fluctuates slightly, with stability as the main factor. Some enterprises have adjusted their quotations, with ups and downs. In some areas, the operation rate is insufficient, the downstream operation is gradually getting better, the number of inquiries is increasing, and the transaction center of industrial lithium carbonate market is moving up in a narrow range. As of March 13, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China is 44200 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China is 51200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the recent strong operation of the upstream lithium carbonate market supports the cost of lithium hydroxide. At present, the focus of market negotiation is stable. With the gradual opening of the overall lithium salt market, it is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be mainly consolidated and operated.

1、 Price trend:

On March 8, crude benzene commodity index was 63.81, flat with yesterday, down 51.60% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 62.57% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the focus of pure benzene negotiation this week is weak. On Tuesday, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 5150 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene continued to rebound. In terms of supply, the recent crude benzene supply picked up slightly compared with last week, the operating rate of coking enterprises picked up slightly, the operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises was still low, and the support for crude benzene was limited. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong fell slightly to about 3850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: OPEC pushed forward production reduction at the beginning of the week, and oil prices rose in a downward trend. But later, it was reported that Russia still had differences, market concerns increased, and oil prices fell. Compared with February 28, Brent increased by 2.01% and WTI by 2.49%. Compared with the beginning of the year, Brent fell by 22.86% and WTI by 24.21%. Pure benzene: the focus of this week’s pure benzene negotiation is weak. On Tuesday, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 5150 yuan / ton. Northern region, the early price clearance, inventory pressure is now reduced, the market began to rise. Downstream: downstream styrene fell in shock. Friday’s price was 6600 yuan / ton, down 1.49% from last week. In order to promote the shipment of aniline, the price was lowered. The price in Shandong was 6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton.

3、 Trend Forecast:

The impact of social public events in foreign countries is still large, and there are still uncertain factors in the promotion of OPEC production reduction, so the rebound momentum is small. In terms of pure benzene, the price in East China is under pressure. There is still downward space for pure benzene. The cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still the same. There is strong pressure on crude benzene, and the market pressure on crude benzene is still the same. It is expected to stabilize in the short term and slightly decline.

1、 Price trend

In February, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market fell as a whole, with a trend of first falling, then rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the domestic LPG market was 4383.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3700 yuan / ton, with a 15.59% drop in the price within the month, and the price was 7.88% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of domestic LPG market fluctuated in February. As of February 28, the outgoing price of LPG of SINOPEC Guangzhou Branch is 4010 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Branch is 4400 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd is 3920 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd is 3550 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 3850 yuan / ton.

In February, the liquefied gas (Shandong) market fell mainly, with large fluctuations during the period. At the beginning of the month, affected by public events, the Spring Festival holiday was extended, transportation was blocked, the downstream work resumed slowly, the terminal demand was reduced, the market transaction atmosphere was cold, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the inventory was gradually increased, so the production had to be controlled by production reduction or shutdown, and the price of liquefied gas was continuously lowered. In the middle of the month, the number of enterprises returning to work increased, the market demand increased, and the traffic and transportation recovered. With the continuous reduction of the price to the low level, the downstream market entered the market for staged replenishment, coupled with the significant increase of international crude oil, the market showed a continuous upward trend. But near the end of the month, with the rise of public events, international crude oil fell sharply, especially WTI crude oil fell to a new low in the past year. And in March, CP is expected to fall, which is a negative market mentality. The downstream market is mostly delisted and consumes inventory, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. The market transaction atmosphere turns weak, and liquefied gas falls into a downward situation again.

Saudi Aramco announced in March that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $430 / T, down $75 / T from last month, and butane to $480 / T, down $65 / T from last month. It is estimated that the c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3810 yuan / ton, and butane is about 4196 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in February 2020, among which one is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top three commodities are petroleum coke (26.38%), dynamic coal (2.09%) and coking coal (0.79%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are liquefied gas (- 15.59%), MTBE (- 15.56%), dimethyl ether (- 10.08%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 3.68%.

3、 Future forecast

In March, CP price was introduced, and propane butane fell sharply, which was a negative market mentality. At present, although the upstream inventory is controllable, but the downstream has not been fully resumed, and the terminal demand is still limited. In the short term or continue to be weak. In the long run, with the slow increase of resumption of work and the expected growth of demand, the market may have a rebound under the support of low supply.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic bromine market in February was weak and stable, and the average price of bromine in China remained at about 30277 yuan / ton, down 13.49% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: in February, the domestic bromine market was in the traditional off market period, and the overall market operating rate was at a low level. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the enterprise started to postpone to March. At present, the industry’s inventory has been exhausted, the market supply is tight, but the downstream just needs to be flat, and the logistics and transportation just recovered. Therefore, the industry’s traffic and investment is light. At present, the mainstream enterprises offer about 29000-30000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this month, the upstream market of bromine in China is stable and rising, and the market operation is insufficient. At present, sulfur is about 506 yuan / ton, sulfuric acid is about 313 yuan / ton, caustic soda is about 602 yuan / ton, and soda ash is about 1553 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the market performance of flame retardants is relatively weak, the development of pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates is relatively low, the overall rigid demand is weak, and the supply and demand are weak, which has a negative impact on the price of bromine.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the domestic bromine market has been delayed and the spot supply is insufficient. Affected by the poor downstream demand, the overall supply and demand of the market are weak. It is expected that the market will maintain stable operation in the short term. After the two sessions and the epidemic, the market will usher in a turnaround.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

 
Nitric acid price curve

 
According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1583 yuan / ton, while the average price at the weekend was 1550 yuan / ton, down 2.11%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the prices of some concentrated nitric acid enterprises have declined, and Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry has stopped reporting; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has offered 1450 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week; Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1860 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has offered 1700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; nitric acid market demand is light. The nitric acid enterprises started gradually, and the market supply recovered slightly.

Industrial chain: the demand for liquid ammonia continued to rise this week, with the increase of 7.51% this week. Downstream TDI, February 27 TDI East China market stable wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

Supported by raw material liquid ammonia, but the demand for nitric acid market is difficult to change. The nitric acid analyst of the business society expects that nitric acid may be adjusted as the main one.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price remained stable in February, and the asphalt price at the end of the month was 3420 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in February, affected by the epidemic situation in China, the demand of asphalt market fell to a low point, but the operating rate of asphalt plant in refineries also fell to a low point. The overall supply and demand of asphalt market is low, and the market price is stable.

Industry chain: affected by the epidemic situation in China at the beginning of this month, domestic refineries reduced their operating rates, and domestic crude oil market demand fell sharply. Three major institutions, OPEC, EIA and IEA, simultaneously reduced the growth rate of global crude oil demand this year. In the late ten days, the new crown epidemic in other regions of the world, such as the Middle East and Europe, had a trend of spreading. The spread of globalization worried the market about future economic development. The price of international crude oil market is declining.

In the aspect of asphalt Market: the continuous decline of international oil price drags down the asphalt market, the prices of some refineries in South China are lower, the prices in Shandong and Hebei are basically stable, and the average market prices in Northeast China are basically stable. Demand for asphalt fell to the bottom in February, affected by the outbreak in China. Since the late ten days, with the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the refinery shipment has recovered, but the terminal project recovery is slow, and the asphalt demand is still light. In February, the supply and demand of asphalt market were low, and the market price remained stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at the business club, believes that the new crown epidemic continues to spread abroad, the trend of international oil price is unclear, and the demand for asphalt is still low in March, so it is expected that the asphalt price will continue to maintain stable operation if the change is not significant.

1、 Price trend

In February 2020, the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingots fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 141200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 137712.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2.47%.

On February 28, the tin commodity index was 70.15, down 0.42 points from yesterday, down 30.02% from the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 63.67% from the lowest point, 42.86, on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Domestic market: this month, the spot tin market as a whole shows a fluctuating downward trend. Most of the enterprises began to return to work in the middle and late ten days. Most of the enterprises in Yunnan have resumed normal production, and the commencement is acceptable. Most of the enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production at the end of the month, and some of them have left the factory. As of the 28th day, the quotation is 137000-138500 yuan / ton. In the last week, some parts of Shanghai will be replenished after the official resumption of work, but they just need replenishment, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is general. Up to the end of the month, the monthly coupon set under the Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract is 3600-3800 yuan / ton, and the ordinary Yunzi is around 3000-3500 yuan / ton. Small brand is around 135600-137000 yuan / ton.

Major domestic events:

National Bureau of Statistics: according to preliminary accounting, the annual GDP in 2019 increased by 6.1% over the previous year: according to the statement released on its official website on the morning of the 28th day of the National Bureau of statistics, the annual GDP in 2019 was 99086.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry is 7046.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; the added value of the secondary industry is 38616.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%; the added value of the tertiary industry is 53423.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The added value of the primary industry accounts for 7.1% of the GDP, the added value of the secondary industry accounts for 39.0%, and the added value of the tertiary industry accounts for 53.9%.

China’s official manufacturing PMI in February: 35.7 predicted value: 46; top value: 50. In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down. At the same time, the survey results show that with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. It is expected that China’s purchasing manager index will improve in March.

Two ministries and commissions: to prevent the prices of steel, coal and other fields from rising sharply due to the centralized resumption of production: the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued the notice on giving full play to the role of industry associations and chambers of Commerce to support the resumption of production of private small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the notice, associations and chambers of Commerce in the field of labor-intensive industries should timely report the employment situation and employment difficulties of the industry to local governments or relevant departments, coordinate the implementation of rescue and rescue policies, and ease the labor shortage and employment difficulties caused by the impact of the epidemic. Associations and chambers of Commerce in industries such as steel, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas and basic raw materials should advocate stable supply and price of member enterprises, so as to prevent regional and time-based shortages or sharp price increases caused by centralized resumption of production.

Industry: the global epidemic spreading crisis has raised the market’s worries about the economic downturn. The global stock market has plummeted, and the risk aversion mood has made gold reach a new high, the bulk commodities have been sold down, and the basic metals at home and abroad have fallen sharply.

3、 Future prospects

From next week to March, the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the return rate of enterprises has increased, and the capital pressure of enterprises at the beginning of the month has eased. However, at present, the spread of the epidemic in the world has increased, global investors are worried that it is difficult to calm down, the selling strength of bulk commodities has not decreased, and domestic metals are afraid to be dragged down.

1、 Price trend

The average price of n-butanol was 5566 yuan / ton (including tax) as of February 24, down 133 yuan or 2.34% compared with that of last Monday (February 17), according to the data of business agency. On February 23, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 46.20, unchanged from yesterday, 53.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2011-10-08), and 54.57% higher than the lowest point, 29.89, on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at the beginning of last week, as the downstream continued to resume work, the butanol market was consolidated and operated, supported by the strong rise of propylene, the load of upstream and downstream plants was low, the downstream demand increased, the market demand slightly improved, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Last week, the large orders of n-butanol market remained at the low end. In the middle of the week, the market inventory accumulated, some manufacturers declined, some sources of goods were still under pressure, and market inquiries were still limited. Some factories in Shandong reported lower prices, and the downstream recovery was still less than expected. The market demand was flat at the weekend, and the manufacturers’ inventory was overstocked at the weekend, the trading was poor, and the price focus was shifted down. Today (Feb. 24), Wanhua chemical reduced 300-400 yuan / ton in each region this week compared with the previous week. At present, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 5500 yuan / ton, that of n-butanol in East China is 5700 yuan / ton, and that of n-butanol in North China is 5850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On the 11th, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. In the next few days, the price rose and fell differently. Since the 17th, the price has been generally increased. Last week, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been greatly increased. From last Thursday and Friday, some enterprises began to show a slight upward trend. This week, the price of propylene has increased by 8.45%. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week is 6103 yuan / ton. The average price of enterprises at the end of the week is 6618 yuan / ton. As of February 21, there is still an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6600 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the propylene market has rebounded to the bottom recently, and the crude oil market has not changed much, but it has been raised for several days in a row. There are still many units in the upstream which are shut down for maintenance. In a short time, the supply is difficult to recover, and the propylene output is small. However, the terminal manufacturers have started to resume work one after another, the logistics and transportation have also recovered, and the demand for propylene has increased significantly. Moreover, the PP futures market has been climbing up continuously, and the downstream promotes procurement. Therefore, the It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the supply side of the n-butanol market is relatively sufficient at present, and it is expected that the main market will be digestion inventory in the short term. It is speculated that the n-butanol market is still weak and stable in the near future.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2380 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, up 15.16% year on year. On February 20, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 61.90% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices is general. Affected by the epidemic situation, some ammonium nitrate enterprises have not yet started construction. The on-site supply is stable, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, but the recent transportation is subject to certain restrictions, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are limited to start work, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China rose slightly this week, with the weekend price of 1593.33 yuan / ton, up 1.05% this week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1550 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1700 yuan / ton. In recent years, the parking rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is less, the situation of goods in the yard is general, and the price of nitric acid market rises slightly. The rise of nitric acid price is a good influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is relatively loose, the unit operating rate of enterprises is slightly higher, and the market price of liquid ammonia is lower. The staggered peak and limited production in Shanxi Province and limited transportation in Wuhan, Hubei Province lead to the tight supply of liquid ammonia in some regions, while the start-up of other liquid ammonia enterprises is still at a high level. With the high rate of start-up of liquid ammonia units in Hubei Province, the price trend of liquid ammonia slightly drops by 0.90%. In addition, in the near future, the maintenance of some manufacturers has been restarted, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises has increased, and the local liquid ammonia market may decline, but nationwide, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is mainly declining. The overall price of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is lower, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, some ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not recovered, but the market price of raw materials has increased slightly, which has certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

The average price of lithium hydroxide as of February 17 was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of February 14, according to the data in the bulk list of business associations. In a three-month cycle, it fell 15.76% year-on-year. On February 17, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 135.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.43% from 381.48 (2016-09-12), the highest point in the cycle, and up 35.71% from 100.00, the lowest point on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium hydroxide was stable on February 17. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is around 55000-58000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate market is dominated by stable operation, and the quotation of some enterprises is increased. As of February 17, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China is 43900 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China is 51200 yuan / ton. Due to the postponement of the factory’s return to work, the main reason is the consumption of inventory. In addition, there are certain restrictions on transportation. The cost of logistics rises, and the price of lithium carbonate rises slightly. In the later stage, with the resumption of production and the increase of market supply, the price of lithium carbonate may stabilize.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the upstream lithium carbonate market has increased slightly in the recent period, with general cost support performance, and low demand for industrial lithium hydroxide. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by low consolidation and wait-and-see operation.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, this week’s lithium carbonate market is dominated by stable operation, with some enterprises’ quotations increased. The main reason for this increase is that the current inventory is low, but the market demand is large. In addition, affected by the epidemic, logistics costs have increased. As of February 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 43900 yuan / ton, up 1.39% compared with the beginning of the week. On February 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51200 yuan / ton, up 0.79% compared with that at the beginning of the week.

On February 16, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 111.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.39% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.51% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the lithium carbonate analyst of business association, due to the delay of most of the factory’s resumption of work, the main reason is the consumption of inventory, and certain restrictions on transportation, the price of lithium carbonate rises slightly. In the later stage, with the resumption of production and the increase of market supply, the price of lithium carbonate may stabilize, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of the enterprise’s commencement and logistics transportation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of Friday (February 14) is 5633 yuan / ton (including tax), which is 267 yuan / ton lower than that of February 7, down 4.52%, 400 yuan / ton lower than that before the Spring Festival, down 6.63%. On February 13, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 45.92, down 1.09 points from yesterday, 54.08% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and 53.63% higher than the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the quotation of domestic n-butanol market in Shandong started to loosen slightly since last Friday compared with that before the Spring Festival, and the market inquiry atmosphere is general. At the beginning of this week, the market situation of n-butanol was temporarily stable, the market was consolidated and operated, the load and inventory of mainstream manufacturers were low, the delivery and investment atmosphere was improved, but it was still poor. The downstream resumption increased but was far less than expected, and the cost support was weakened. Although the transportation was gradually improved, there was still some uncertainty in the resumption of all links of the industrial chain. The upstream and downstream industrial chains still need time to be repaired, and the high price of n-butanol was quoted Unable to make good progress. There is still pressure in terms of automobile transportation. The manufacturer mainly sells around, accumulates inventory, and moves down the focus of transaction. Zhou Zhong (February 12) made a downward move in the high-end offer of domestic n-butanol market, and the offer was lowered. As of February 14, Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. cut 200 yuan / ton in each region in this week. At present, the ex factory offer of n-butanol in North China is 5900 yuan / ton, and the ex factory offer of n-butanol in North China is 6250 yuan / ton , the factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 6259 yuan / ton. The collective pricing price of Luxi Chemical Industry is 5800 yuan / ton, with medium load. At present, the low price of n-butanol market is acceptable.

Industry chain: this week, the domestic propylene market continued to be weak, the recovery of terminal demand was slow, the operating rate of propylene and downstream units continued to decline, a small amount of downstream demand chose low procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak. As of February 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong has increased or decreased. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline sharply, and the domestic propylene price also fell for many times. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at low price under the inventory pressure, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to fluctuate in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, the low-end price transactions of the surrounding market of the n-butanol manufacturers have eased this week, and the inventory has been released. With the further recovery of logistics and transportation, it is expected that the n-butanol market will not be tested for the low-end price, and the market will maintain stable operation next week.

1、 Price trend

Propane market was stable and down this week. On February 3, the average price of propane market was 3775 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the average price was 3725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.32% in the week, 8.87% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall domestic propane market is down this week, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. As of February 7, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not quoted temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3750 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3600 yuan / ton.

Propane showed a downward trend this week, with a general trading atmosphere in the market. This week’s overall decline in international crude oil, coupled with a sharp fall in CP prices in February, was negative for the propane Market. Affected by the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is low, coupled with limited traffic, and the market atmosphere is general. During the holiday period, the inventory of manufacturers has been overstocked, so they have to continuously yield profits, stimulate the downstream market, and relieve the inventory pressure. Under the continuous stimulation of the upstream, the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved compared with the beginning of the week, and the price drop has decreased.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

Although the downstream storage and replenishment demand after the festival, there is no substantial change in the terminal demand of the propane Market, and the international market is in a downturn, the overall atmosphere of the market is general. However, after the festival, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is relatively large, and the main reason is to make more profits for shipment. It is expected that the market will still fall next week.

Last week, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China was slightly lower. On weekends, most of the quotations of enterprises were lower than that at the beginning of the week. Some enterprises in the northern region were slightly lower, but the range was not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, last week’s (2.3-7) drop of liquid ammonia was 0.82%, but compared with that before the year, the drop of liquid ammonia price was obvious, generally 300-500 yuan / ton, down more than 8%, It is mainly because on the one hand, affected by the off-season atmosphere of the festival, on the other hand, after the year, the start-up of enterprises is generally delayed, the market enters a window period, few dealers enter the market, and they are generally in a state of closure. On the other hand, affected by the traffic, the transportation of liquid ammonia also enters a bottleneck period, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of liquid ammonia after the year. After the rebound in the first ten days of January 2020, the market of Shandong and Hebei enterprises in the main production areas has been repeated in the middle and last ten days, and the operating rate of liquid ammonia has been relatively low, most of them have turned to urea, and they are even frozen after the year. The main quotation in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton.

In North China, the liquid ammonia also fell steadily. The lack of demand led to the slow delivery of liquid ammonia. After the transformation to urea, the ammonia quantity was controlled. The inventory pressure of the enterprise was slightly relieved, but at present, there are many downstream stoppages, and the transportation was blocked, and the price fell. The main quotation in North China is 2500-2600 yuan / ton up and down.

In Hebei Province, on the one hand, the production and transportation problems are serious, and the production and sales are not prosperous. On the other hand, the environmental protection pressure is still not negligible, which leads to the limited production and shutdown of enterprises. Especially, the downstream distributors are generally closed, the enterprise inventory can not be cleared in time, there are many inventories, and the price is mainly downward. The mainstream quotation in Hebei Province is 2550-2650 yuan / ton.

At the end of the week, the market in Central China mainly declined, and the delivery pressure in Hubei increased significantly compared with that before the festival. Transportation is the most difficult area. Part of Henan Province is affected by environmental protection pressure, and the price gives more profits. Currently, the liquid ammonia market is shrouded in a bad atmosphere and weak operation, and the main quotation in Henan Province is 2450-2550 yuan / ton up and down. In addition, the northwest region is not smooth, and the enterprise quotation has dropped to 2400 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business community believes that the current market is slightly adjusted, the production rate of manufacturers is relatively low, the quotation of enterprises is mainly downward, most enterprises have room to make profits, many units are converted to urea production, and the production of liquid ammonia is affected to some extent, so as to balance the overstock of manufacturers’ inventory. However, with the coming of the spring farming season, the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will expand, and it is expected that the short-term market will be stable and the medium-term price will be stable There is a rebound demand.

1、 Price trend

On January 17, the antimony commodity index was 53.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.45% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.45% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, the price of antimony oxide followed the trend of antimony ingot, with the average price of 99.5% at 33500 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 36000 yuan / ton as of Friday. In terms of raw materials: the delivery and investment of mining enterprises are light, some mines are still shut down for maintenance in winter, and most mines are shut down for maintenance or suspended for delivery quotation.

Domestic market: the market price of antimony ingots is stable this week. Near the Spring Festival, most manufacturers are going to have a holiday or are going to have a holiday. Logistics and transportation will be suspended soon. Most manufacturers enter the spring holiday ahead of time. As of Friday, the price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots is 37000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots is 37500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots is 38500 yuan / ton, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is 34500 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: the macro environment at home and abroad is warm this week, the first phase of Sino US trade agreement has been signed and implemented, and the domestic central bank has made a total of 900 billion net investment in this week. On Friday, the National Bureau of statistics released the important economic data of 2019, which shows that China’s economy continues to be stable and positive, and the market is more emotional, a shares and nonferrous basic metals keep rising.

3、 Future prospects

Next week is just four trading days before the Spring Festival. Most of the spot market is hard to have substantive trading, and the futures market will also take risk aversion to reduce positions and leave the market. Although the supply and demand are weak, but the basic metal market is full of expectations for consumption after the festival, and this year’s currency remains loose. With market confidence, although the spot price will show no market, the low selling price will decline Continuation

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic refrigerant R134a market is temporarily stable this week. On January 13, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23333.33 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (19), the average price was 23333.33 yuan / ton. This week’s market was temporarily stable. On January 18, the R134a commodity index was 85.37, flat with yesterday, down 14.63% from the highest point of 100.00 (2019-09-02), and up 2.94% from the lowest point of 82.93 on November 12, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R134a market of refrigerant market is stable temporarily this week. Near the end of the year, logistics has been shut down, factories are on holiday, traders are gradually delisting, and refrigerant prices are not adjusted much before the year. At present, the support of the raw material end is acceptable, and the stock of the automobile industry at the demand end is continuous, which is good for the formation of refrigerant R134a. After the year, new capacity investment will be added, and the price may have a downward trend. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of January 19, R134a price was concentrated around 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business association, the logistics will be shut down one after another near the end of the year, the factory will have a holiday, and the traders will gradually withdraw from the market. It is expected that the refrigerant R134a will continue to run smoothly before this year.

1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell slightly this week, according to the data of business agency. On January 10, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 5283 yuan / ton, down 3.06% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 5440 yuan / ton, and by Friday, the price was 5235 yuan / ton, down 205 yuan / ton, down 3.77%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of January 16, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China was 71.49%, the operating rate of coal production was 70.00%, and the operating rate of non coal production was 68.85%, which was higher than that of last week.

In terms of units, at present, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company plans to start its new 750000 T / a MEG unit in Zhoushan on January 18, while Hengli 900000 T / a glycol unit and Inner Mongolia Rongxin 400000 T / a coal to glycol unit that have been tested before the festival are all planned to be produced and sold after a year, and the supply in February is expected to increase significantly in China.

As of January 16, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 354000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons or 1.14% compared with last Thursday’s decrease, and a decrease of 35000 tons or 0.98% compared with Monday’s decrease. Among them, Zhangjiagang has 175000 tons, the same as last Thursday; 65000 tons; Shanghai and Changshu have 24000 tons; Taicang has 47000 tons..

In the downstream, the overall operating rate of the downstream polyester industry has dropped to 74.71%, while the operating rate of most polyester and downstream textile industries can only be recovered in the second half of February.

3、 Analysis and prediction

The market price of glycol rose slightly earlier this week due to the expectation of tight supply caused by long-term low inventory. However, with the decrease of downstream construction, polyester end production and marketing ratio, oil and coal producers have lowered the price of glycol, and the market atmosphere has gradually weakened. After the festival, the new devices will continue to produce stably. During the Spring Festival, there will be some delayed arrival of cargo to the port, or it will cause accumulation of storage. Under the influence of many factors, the trend of glycol in the later period may be on the low side.

Market Overview:

According to a large amount of data monitoring from the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province kept stable operation this week, and the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was around 2480 yuan / ton in the week.

Market analysis:

Product: due to the traditional off-season of dichloromethane market, the downstream demand is flat, and the demand side support is insufficient. Although the overall inventory of the market is low, it still cannot prevent the weak operation of dichloromethane price. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2480 yuan / ton; in East China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton; in Jiangxi, Liwen is about 2650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the weakness of natural gas market is hard to change, with a decline of 5.38% in the week. In the face of insufficient support of dichloromethane, the cost is about 3273 yuan / ton at present; the liquid chlorine market is stable and volatile, and the demand in the downstream is flat, with an increase of about 300-450 yuan / ton at present. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market is in short supply and the downstream stock is picking up, and the weekly price is slightly higher; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of dichloromethane is generally supported.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, it is in the off-season of dichloromethane at present, with low inventory of enterprises and poor downstream demand. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is expected to be stable and moderate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The average price of n-butanol as of January 10 was 5933 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of 130 yuan / ton or 2.30% compared with that at the beginning of the week (January 6), according to the data of business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic n-butanol market is stable, moderate and small increase, East China low price offer continues to move up this week, some factories are affected by environmental protection to reduce load operation, downstream users of butyl have a high enthusiasm for purchasing, favorable factors are still in place, the confidence of the industry is boosted, and the current factory cost pressure is large, the offer of the industry is more and more firm, the prices in all regions of the market are stable, downstream customers buy Rising mentality is becoming apparent. The main offer spread between East China and North China has widened. At present, as of January 10, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in East China is around 6300-6400 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is around 5900-6000 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in South China is around 6200-6300 yuan / ton; the collective pricing of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical is around 5900 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong lihuayi is around 5900 yuan / ton Nearly: the factory quotation of North China n-butanol of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6000 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the factory quotation of East China n-butanol is 6350 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the factory quotation of South China n-butanol is 6350 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Industrial chain: as of January 10, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province has been raised again. Affected by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, on July 7 and 8, and it was stable on September 9. Today, it continued to increase by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to about 7050-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7050 yuan / ton. At present, although the international crude oil price has declined, the downstream powder starting load has declined and the profit margin has decreased, but due to the shutdown or load reduction of some domestic dehydrogenation units, a dehydrogenation unit in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance, the supply is obviously tight, the refinery shipment is smooth, and it is expected that the propylene market price may still rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis by the data analyst of the business club, it is expected that the n-butanol market will continue to operate stably in the short term, the low price area of the market will continue to move towards the high level, and there is room for the price of the n-butanol market to rise again before the Spring Festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, caprolactam started to rise after a big fall, which has continued to rise 5.96%. On January 6, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11100 yuan / ton, and on January 10, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11266 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.50%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on January 12 is 56.67, flat with yesterday, 43.33% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 5.96% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: caprolactam rose slightly this week. As of January 10, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 11000 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be negotiated. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11700 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11150 yuan / ton. The 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11150 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11600 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industrial chain: the market of cyclohexanone is stable this week, and the main price in Shandong is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in spot exchange), which is stable compared with last week. The situation in the Middle East was suddenly tense, crude oil rose, pure benzene market rose, and cyclohexanone cost pressure increased. Heavy snow in the North during the week affected the logistics and transportation, and the demand for solvents was limited. Affected by the situation in the Middle East at the beginning of the week, oil prices soared, driving the price of pure benzene up in the external market and the domestic market. However, in the later period, the oil price plummeted and the support surface weakened. In addition, the downstream trading has been light and the profit is insufficient, so the market fell back.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to caprolactam analysts of the business club, in the near future, with the support of raw material price and the insufficient supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the manufacturer intends to hold up the price, the price of caprolactam starts to rise, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that caprolactam will keep rising in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price.

1、 Price trend

In this week (1.06-1.10), the market price of domestic 1 × tin ingot rose. The average price of domestic market was 140562.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 141700 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.81%.

On January 10, the tin commodity index was 72.18, unchanged from yesterday, 28.00% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and 68.41% higher than the lowest point, 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic market: the spot market price fluctuated upward this week, mainly driven by the futures market and the positive stock up of enterprises towards the end of the year. As of Friday, the mainstream price of the spot tin market was 140500-142000 yuan / ton. It’s 750 yuan / ton higher than last Friday. In terms of premium and discount, on Friday, the premium of Yunxi was 1000 yuan / ton for Shanghai phase tin 2001 contract, 500 yuan / ton for ordinary Yunzi flat water – premium, and 140500-141000 yuan / ton for small brand mainstream.

Nonferrous Industry: this week, the market shrouded in the risk sentiment brought about by the US Iraq conflict. Crude oil and gold soared, and nonferrous metals were passively pressured, first suppressed and then raised. As the United States announced to replace the full-scale war with economic sanctions, the risk aversion mood was eased, and the low metal level gradually picked up.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will usher in the first round of signing the Sino US trade agreement. There are a lot of data in the United States, and it is expected that the U.S. dollar will still have room to continue to recover. China will face the delivery of the 2001 contract. With the delivery for another month, downstream consumption will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday mode, and consumption will obviously turn weak, and basic metals will fall under pressure after surging. From next week, it will be closed in recent years. Most manufacturers will have a holiday. The market is light and the price is stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of January 9, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9796 yuan / ton, with a 0.16% increase on a month on month basis and a 2.77% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Products: there is no obvious fluctuation in the domestic BDO market. At present, the main factory controls goods and road transportation restrictions are superimposed. The on-site spot quantity is not loose. The manufacturers stick to the high price offer, the middle and lower reaches maintain the cautious spot replenishment rhythm, and the overall negotiation and delivery rhythm is slow. The early peripheral news frequently stimulate a large range of chemical products, and the essence and more reflection is also worth it Get attention. The new mode in the venue has not yet made clear progress and is under continuous attention.

In terms of market, the BDO market in South China has been operating steadily. The spot supply is limited and the negotiation focus is high. The factory actively promotes the hanging settlement and marketing, but the downstream has strong resistance and just needs to enter the market for purchase. The BDO market in East China is strong. Under the double superposition of transportation and factory control, the supply of goods in the market is general, and the supplier continues to offer at a high level. However, the downstream is opposed to the new model, pushing forward slowly, and the fluctuation of trading center is not obvious.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and methanol have a strong trend. Although local logistics is limited, the enthusiasm for goods preparation before the festival is fair. Most enterprises in Guanzhong and other places sell smoothly. The price in Guanzhong has been raised to 1800-1960 yuan / ton again in this week. The ex factory price in Xinjiang (Xinjiang) has risen sharply to 1170-1330 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of most enterprises in Northwest China is not high, and the downstream needs to prepare goods before the festival, but the traditional downstream demand has been weak, and it is expected that the recent market will mainly fluctuate.

Calcium carbide: the price of domestic calcium carbide market is still rising regionally. At this stage, the road transportation situation in all regions affected by the weather has not improved, the arrival of calcium carbide is insufficient, and the market purchase price is gradually increased. At present, the main quotation in Shanxi Province is 2900 yuan / ton; the main quotation in Henan Province is 3050 yuan / ton; the main quotation in Shaanxi Province is 2660-2690 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic calcium carbide market will continue to follow the rise, and the downstream will actively purchase.

3、 Future forecast

On the whole, on the positive side, the manufacturers are willing to support the market, and some of them are under maintenance. On the negative side, downstream demand is weak. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will be in a strong operation, with specific attention to plant restart and downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 3, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5520 yuan / ton, which was 0.73% higher than that of the same period last month and 3.50% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market is in high-level consolidation, and the market in some regions is strong.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic alcohol market is stable and dynamic. Except for the slight adjustment of anhydrous market price, other markets have not changed much. The Northeast ethanol market remained stable around New Year’s day. Influenced by the snow and road closures, the external quotation of small northeast factories began to decline. The quotation remained stable when the inventory of large factories was not high, the downstream liquor procurement was close to the end and the chemical factories concentrated on the end of the month procurement. At the beginning of the week, the enterprises in East China adjusted their prices and then returned to normal. At present, the source of goods and ships did not arrive at the port, and the market price remained stable. Henan region The quotation of the enterprise is stable, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the market price remains in order; the quotation of the market in South China is relatively stable, and the operation rate of the enterprise’s devices is still not high. At present, the anhydrous price has been slightly reduced, because the downstream just needs to be insufficient. At present, the market price continues to be supported by the favorable supply in Guangdong, Guangxi, Anhui and other places.

Industry chain: corn: corn prices rose and fell slightly in some parts. In the near future, the grass-roots level in the main production area is loose in their attitude of reluctant to sell, and the corn is concentrated in quantity. The deep processing enterprises can flexibly adjust the purchase price according to the arrival quantity of the factory door. In the month of December, growers are faced with the demand for cash and repayment of loans before the festival. Factors such as the shortened period of grain sales before the festival, the purchase by raising the price of the state treasury, and the increase of the import expectation of substitutes are added. The grass-roots grain sales in the main production area are speeding up, and the increase of the quantity of corn promotes the price reduction and purchase of some processing enterprises. The spot price is still in the weak adjustment stage, but there are signs of bottoming out. We still believe that the probability of corn prices continuing to be weak in the short term is on the high side, and this prediction will not change for the time being. With the start of stock up demand before the Spring Festival, it is expected that corn prices will be stable and moderately bullish around the first and middle of January.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate market fell in shock this week. Shandong Yankuang ethyl acetate plant maintains half load production, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. After the new year’s day, the purchase and purchase volume of raw ethyl acetate is gradually reduced, and there is no intention to prepare goods at the end of the year, which leads to the situation that the supply of domestic ethyl acetate Market is gradually larger than the demand, and suppliers and manufacturers are passively competing for shipment, which drives the market transaction down. However, the purchase volume of ethyl acetate in the downstream is still rational. After the supplier’s decline, the supplier is stable and intends to stabilize the price to attract the downstream purchase. However, the reduction of the downstream substantial demand becomes a force majeure. The ethyl acetate Market is passive and weak. Considering the inventory pressure in the later spring festival, it is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will still be weak next week.

3、 Future forecast

The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term ethanol market is expected to be weak. At present, the inventory of large factories in Northeast China is not high, but the inventory of small factories is high due to the restrictions of transportation. The shipping mentality is positive, and the market price is weak. With the end of liquor purchasing and the purchase at the end of the month and the beginning of the month of chemical industry concentration, the demand in January is obviously reduced. The normal production of large factories’ devices and the arrival of the Spring Festival are expected The number of vehicles coming will continue to decrease. Under the influence of snowfall, it is difficult to find a higher price in logistics. It is expected that the price of Northeast market will be weak in the short term. In East China, a large number of ships will arrive at the port at the beginning of the month, and some cassava production enterprises will start production in January with raw materials arriving at the port. The supply will increase. The downstream chemical terminal heard that the holiday will start around January 10, which is affected by the increase of demand and supply , prices will be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 253.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 243.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.59%, up 137.40% year on year. Overall, hydrochloric acid fell slightly this week, with the January 3 hydrochloric acid commodity index at 64.03.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the price of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers fell slightly, the overall market is average. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 210 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid weekend quotation is 70 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower compared with the beginning of the week.

（2） Industrial chain:

The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to early demand. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to be declining, and by-product acid is still hitting the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively high, and the quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Business analysts believe that: upstream liquid chlorine Market in the near future is general, downstream rare earth, fuel demand is weak. Business analysts believe that the recent low consolidation of hydrochloric acid mainly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of domestic potassium nitrate was weak and consolidated this week. This week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, and the current price was 4.92% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market was in a weak consolidation. The price of upstream raw material potassium chloride fluctuated slightly due to the arrival of the port, generally in a low consolidation. The trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market was general, the downstream demand was general, in a stable period of consumption, the supply and demand were relatively stable, and the situation was in a weak consolidation state. In addition, the overall downstream demand is general, the inventory is relatively sufficient, the rising power is insufficient, and the price is mainly stable. This week, the price change is not big. The domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business association think: in the near future, the market situation of nitric acid market is weak and consolidation, spot trading is tepid and tepid, and the manufacturer’s mentality is general. It is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, and the market situation may continue to consolidation and operation.

According to a large amount of data monitoring from the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province kept stable operation this week, and the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2600 yuan / ton in the week.

Market analysis:

Product: at present, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province is producing normally, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is not large. Therefore, the enterprises have a good attitude of pricing. However, they are in the traditional off-season of dichloromethane, the downstream demand is flat, and the demand side support is insufficient. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2600 yuan / ton; in East China is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton; in Jiangxi, Liwen is about 3150 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the price of natural gas fell 3.8% continuously in a week, and the cost is insufficient in the face of dichloromethane support. At present, it is about 3970 yuan / ton; the supply of liquid chlorine market is sufficient, but the demand in the downstream market is poor, and the enterprise’s quotation continues to decrease, and it is over reported about 400-550 yuan / ton at present. In the downstream, the supply of domestic refrigerant market is tight, the inventory is low, and the price rises slightly, but the overall construction is still low; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of dichloromethane is generally supported.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, it is in the off-season of dichloromethane at present, and both sides of supply and demand are slightly low, which is in the state of game. It is expected to be stable and moderate in the short term.

Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province rose and fell in December, with an average price of 2680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2600 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall decline of 2.99%.

Market analysis:

Product: affected by the supply-demand relationship, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province rose and fell sharply in December, with the highest price of 2720 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2450 yuan / ton, a difference of 10.91%. This month, dichloromethane production enterprises started steadily, with low inventory. The downstream market just needs to purchase, and the enterprise’s adjustment quotation is mostly affected by the enterprise’s inventory. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2600 yuan / ton; in East China is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton; in Jiangxi, Liwen is about 3150 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, due to the oversupply of the market, the price of natural gas continued to fall by 19.11% in the month. In the face of the insufficient support of dichloromethane, the cost is about 3760 yuan / ton at present; the supply of liquid chlorine market is sufficient, but the demand of the downstream market is not good, and the enterprise’s quotation continues to decline. At present, the price is over reported at about 400-550 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the supply of domestic refrigerant market is tight, the inventory is low, and the price rises slightly, but the overall construction is still low; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of dichloromethane is generally supported.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, due to the traditional off-season of dichloromethane, low purchase intention of downstream market and traders, and insufficient support of demand side, dichloromethane production enterprises mostly intend to stabilize prices, and the market is in a state of game, which is expected to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China at the beginning of this week was 533.33 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price at the weekend was 503.33 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, down 5.63%, 62.99% compared with last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur price trend was reduced by a narrow range, and the sulfur quotation of individual refineries was temporarily stable according to their own shipment. On the port side, the inventory is still high, with small factories and traders occasionally entering the market for enquiries and relatively limited transactions. In the week, refineries all over the country continued to maintain low inventory operation, because environmental protection and production restriction problems still exist, and downstream factories still maintained low level to start operation, and major production enterprises made downward pricing in order to alleviate inventory sales pressure, among which, the quotation in East China was temporarily stable, the price of sulfur in Shandong was significantly reduced by 30-60 yuan / ton, and that in North China by 30 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is stable, moderate and downward, and the local market is up and down. In Shandong Province, the price trend was stable and rising, up 3.53% in the week, and the average market price was increased by 10 yuan / ton. The price rise is mainly caused by traders’ stock up and partial supply reduction. The downstream demand is continuously depressed, without substantial improvement, unable to support the market upward. In addition, with the Spring Festival approaching, in order to ensure that the inventory is not under pressure, the enterprises give priority to the stable price of goods, and the short-term benefits are hard to be realized.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are chloroform (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business agency, at present, the port inventory is high, the downstream factories purchase on demand and small orders, and there is no substantive good guidance on supply and demand. In addition, the internal and external support is weak, so most of the operators are cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that sulfur will be sorted and operated in the short term, depending on the plant conditions in the future.

1、 Price trend:

On December 27, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 62.91, unchanged from yesterday, 38.33% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 41.18% higher than the lowest point, 44.56 on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week’s Hydrogenated benzene market is slightly lower. By Friday, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China was 5750-5800 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week. In terms of the price difference, the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is narrowed this week, the loss of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is increased, there are many maintenance plans in the near future, some units may reduce the operating rate, the enterprise’s delivery pressure is large, and the on-site delivery and investment are weakened.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil, the overall trend of oil prices this week was volatile. As of Friday, WTI futures rose 1.72%, and Dubai futures rose 0.81%. ; pure benzene: the external price of pure benzene rose in a narrow range in the week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the port inventory of pure benzene continued to rise. Downstream: this week’s price correction of toluene and xylene came from the feedback of traders. The market was cautious. Compared with last week, the turnover of this week fell by more than 20%, and the port inventory rose slightly, about 20000 tons.

Three, trend forecast:

Next week, we will continue to focus on the market transaction status, port inventory, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. At present, the trend of pure benzene and its downstream products is general, and there is no obvious positive support in the short term. In the near future, the intention of maintenance is increasing, the upstream crude benzene market has room for decline, and the hydrogenation benzene market has room for decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA66 in 2019 is different from that in 2018. This year, the weak spot price of PA66 fell. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main color of domestic PA66 market in 2019. As of December 25, the average price of PA66′s mainstream offers was about 23050.00 yuan / ton, down 36.24% from the beginning of the year.

Analysis of influencing factors:

At the beginning of the year, Ineos, a European Petrochemical producer, declared Force Majeure for its acrylonitrile plants. The company announced that the ACN supply of its plant in green lake, Texas, encountered force majeure, with a capacity of 545000 tons / year. Previously, the company also announced that the supply of ACN at its plant in hill Sanders, UK, suffered force majeure, with a capacity of 280000 tons / year. In addition, Taiwan Formosa Plastics and Thailand PTT Asahi chemical also have their own maintenance plans in spring. This led to an increase in the spot price of acrylonitrile at that time. Affected by the rising cost side, it is generally considered that the good is the support. However, all this happened in the environment of weak demand for PA66, which further reduced the profits of the chip factory by adding the cost side pressure to the already difficult PA66.

After the adipic acid festival in the upstream, the downstream returned to work at a peak, the demand improved, and the offer picked up. However, in the first half of the year, the supply continued to be abundant. Although the cost of pure benzene rose intermittently, the overall performance of the market was weak and negative. The stock pressure is general, the on-site operators have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and they need more space for negotiation. In the first half of this year, the main theme of the imbalance between supply and demand of PA66 slices remained unchanged, and the downstream factories continued to be weak in taking goods. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, the traders go with the market, and the trading is difficult. Most of the year’s decline was completed in the first half of the year, and the domestic brand PA66 fell nearly 23.96% in the first half of the year.

At the end of August and the beginning of September, Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the notice on adjusting the key projects in 2019, mainly involving the adjustment of key projects in and out. One million ton PC polycarbonate project of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was withdrawn, and the 200000 ton nylon 66 new material project of Tianchen Qixiang announced on July 25 was added. This year, Tianchen Qi Xiang is the industrial technology giant who broke the monopoly of PA66 raw materials and founded the first adiponitrile project in Zibo. After the completion of Tianchen Qixiang’s industrial base, it will break the technology monopoly of foreign countries, end the blank of domestic technology industry and the history that adiponitrile relies on import and its pricing is controlled by people. However, this good news makes PA66 practitioners feel complicated. The shift of Shandong key projects to nylon 66 means that PA66′s production capacity continues to expand. Now, the technical barriers of adiponitrile have been solved, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced in the future. It is expected to be a long-term impact on China’s PA66 market. Under the background of the imbalance of supply and demand, the market trend is difficult.

The following traditional peak season “golden nine silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. The spot supply of PA66 market continued to be abundant, and the downstream factories just needed to take the goods, but the demand did not improve and continued to be weak. The market is short of buying gas, the industry is bearish, and the trading is more flexible and detailed. In the middle of the third quarter, the US tariff delayed to release the good news, the terminal market temperature in the peak season was good, the periodic price recovery of adipic acid market surged, all of which were overshadowed by the imbalance of supply and demand, and the overall impact on PA66 market was limited. Combined with the decline of PA66 this year, it is felt that the long-term trend of increasing competition in the industry.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the market of PA66 in 2019 is weak and stable after falling. The reason is that this year’s macroeconomic situation is really not good, and the downward pressure on the economy is obvious. The trade friction between China and the United States has a great impact on the trading atmosphere of the commodity market. But the main reason is that the business club believes that the price of PA66 market experienced a sharp rise last year, and the cost end of downstream factories was under too much pressure, which led to a significant reduction in the whole downstream demand this year, as well as in the engineering plastics field, spinning field, ties and other fields. In addition, adipic acid has limited support on the cost side. The intermediate hexanedionitrile broke the monopoly, and the capacity expansion was negative on the cost side of PA66. Multiple factors have led to oversupply in the overall market since this year, presenting a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The market is short of buying gas, and the industry tends to wait and see. At present, the cost pressure of domestic polymerization plants is still large, and the situation is relatively difficult. Its impact is likely to cause PA66′s mid – and long-term market to improve.

Commodity index: on December 20, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.81% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 20, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 11, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton. In the middle of this month, the price slightly increased by 0.1%, with a small range.

Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; however, it has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the mid day; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day; since the second half of the year, propylene According to the market trend of nitrile, its high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be lowered in a step-by-step manner in October. The overall five-month reduction was about 2000-3000 yuan / ton, with a shock range of about 15%. This month, the market shock first went up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice last week and stopped production until January 1, 2020. The manufacturer has relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan and the increase of freight cost, the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer has increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the construction in winter determines that the downstream procurement has little impact on the price of raw materials, and the price reduction in the middle of the year is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production cost; the current impact on the market is the environmental protection control, the manufacturer in Gongyi, Henan Province stops production, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the transportation cost leads to the general increase of the price. To sum up, polyacrylamide will maintain a small fluctuation trend in the future market, and pay attention to the stock situation in the future market and the requirements of environmental protection after new year’s day.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is temporarily stable this week, with a quotation of 1700.00 yuan / ton, down 14.40% year-on-year from the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market this week was temporarily stable, with the urea commodity index at 79.07 on December 20.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong have risen and fallen. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this weekend is 1690 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1680 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: at present, the domestic market has a general trading atmosphere, the manufacturer continues to ship orders in advance, and the sales pressure is relatively small. The demand is light, the agricultural dealers still wait and see the majority, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have low enthusiasm for replenishment, and the rubber plate factory starts at a low level. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable and weak. Next, we may focus on the bidding situation in India.

Industry chain: upstream products as a whole seem to have declined slightly: the price of natural gas has declined slightly, from 4213.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4150.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.50%, compared with the same period of last year, down 22.67%; the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable, with the price of 3256.67 yuan / ton, down 1.31% compared with the same period of last year, overall, the urea cost support this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with the price of 6000.00 yuan / ton. The purchasing capacity in the downstream was average, which had a negative impact on the price of urea. At the same time, the lower level of the downstream rubber plate plant has a negative impact on urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the urea market in Shandong Province was dominated by low consolidation. According to urea analysts of business association, at present, some manufacturers throw in advance orders, so the sales pressure of manufacturers is relatively small; however, the demand is still weak. In addition to the low starting level of rubber plate manufacturers, the industrial demand has also declined, and the amount of agricultural fertilizer preparation is not large. At present, the domestic market does not have a greater positive support. It is expected that the short-term market will be consolidated at a low level.

1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, this week (12.16-20), the domestic adipic acid market did not change much, maintaining a narrow adjustment pattern, and maintaining the price level of last week. As of last weekend, the mainstream price was generally 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the market situation of adipic acid has stabilized, and the prices in most regions have not changed much. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation, and the benefits of cost have not been transmitted in time. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern, the rebound rate of this month is 8% as of December 20, but the conduction effect of cost is lagging behind, which does not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. It is expected that the price of adipic acid will follow up at the end of the month due to the rise of cost side.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, year ago, the downstream procurement was not strong, and most of the procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. In December, the nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the health news agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September. This month, the market trend was stable Weekly prices fell slightly, with a range of – 0.16% (as shown in the figure above). PA66′s recent market still hasn’t improved. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor that makes it difficult for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will remain stable years ago. In the middle and later stages, it is unlikely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, because the upstream pure benzene price has risen, with the cost effect transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may appear small The market rebounded.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average domestic PVC mainstream price on December 12 was 7052.5 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the average domestic PVC mainstream price of 7087.5 yuan / ton on Thursday (05), up 7.26% compared with the same period last year. On December 12, the PVC commodity index was 89.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 53.37% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: since November, PVC has been pushing up for several weeks. Recently, it has become stable and weak, and the heat has gradually subsided. Recently, the overall starting load of PVC enterprises has increased. After the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods has increased slightly, but the overall situation is still tight. The actual trading atmosphere is not warm, and the market transaction price is mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. Due to the rigid demand of the downstream procurement multi-dimensional system and the cautious wait-and-see attitude, the quotation of the merchants is mostly adjusted according to their own conditions, which is a little loose, resulting in a narrow range of PVC price consolidation and a small drop in price. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 12, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6700-7130 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7100-7200 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7100-7220 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 7320-7420 yuan / ton. Prices across the region were high and consolidated, with some prices down slightly.

Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection in the northern heating season, Hebei started a class II response to heavy pollution weather, and some downstream product enterprises also had the news of production reduction, increased production suspension, and limited demand for PVC. In addition, the previous weeks pushed up, and the price of PVC has been pushed to a high level in the off-season. At present, the main reason is to digest the previous increase. In the absence of obvious favorable fundamentals, the upward trend of PVC lacks practical support The weak trend is expected.

Futures: Recently, PVC market fell. Now the main contract has been converted from 01 to 05. The price difference between 01 contract and spot contract is large, and part of the forecast will be repaired. On the 11th, the main contract fell in the night of 2005, closing at 6570 yuan / ton (- 25), and the position increased by 2838 to 379000. Futures closed at 6550 on the night of December 12, down 5, opening high and going low.

News: in November 2019, the domestic PVC output was 1641700 tons, an increase of 0.29% month on month and 1.03% year on year.

 
Industry chain: crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate broadly in the near future, and ethylene market will fall. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The enthusiasm of PVC downstream products enterprises is not high, affected by environmental protection, the production is increasing, and the demand for PVC is limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 12, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including pet (1.16%) and PA66 (0.06%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, PC (- 1.78%) and PP (- 1.21%), respectively. The average price of this day was – 0.11%.

III. future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: Recently, PVC futures have fallen sharply, and the spot market is also fluctuating and falling. At present, the inventory is still at a low level, and the prices of most manufacturers are still firm. It is difficult to completely change the tight supply of goods in a short time. It is expected that in the short term, the high consolidation of PVC will be the main thing, and the prices of some enterprises will be fine tuned. However, with the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods will increase, and downstream demand will increase Limited and other factors, the aftermarket may be under pressure.

I. price trend

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the phosphoric acid market recovered from a high level and fell in a step-by-step manner. According to the large data list of business association, the average price of phosphoric acid on October 1 was 5500 yuan / ton, and on December 13 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 3.33% in the fourth quarter. On December 13, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.49% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: since October, the price of phosphoric acid market has been stable and downward, and the whole market is weak. The average price fell 3.03% in October, slightly fluctuated in the middle of November, and the price was temporarily stable. As of December 13, the average price fell slightly by 0.31%, with a quarterly decline of 3.33%. At present, the market performance of phosphoric acid in the fourth quarter is average, and the market is weak. Due to the rising cost of raw materials in the third quarter, the phosphoric acid industry as a whole rose, and the price has been in a high consolidation state. However, the price of phosphoric acid in this year is higher than that in previous years. In the fourth quarter, the start-up of phosphoric acid market is on the low side, the yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is tight, the price of phosphoric acid is supported by the cost side, and the attitude of the industry is not active. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the demand is less, and the downstream demand is not followed up enough, and the trading is And it is expected that there is no plan to store goods in the downstream, and the purchase is just needed, and there are few new orders for merchants. Compared with the general market of thermal phosphoric acid, wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good. Because the production process and process cost of wet process phosphoric acid are lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, the corresponding market quotation is lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, which has a high market acceptance. In the near future, the goods are better, and most of the downstream products are willing to choose wet process phosphoric acid with low price at the end of the year. As of December 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5316.67 yuan / ton, Hubei Xingfa group quoted 5500 yuan / ton, Wengfu Dazhou quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Guangxi Mingli group quoted 5550 yuan / ton, Sichuan KANGLONG chemical quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Sichuan Yida quoted 4700 yuan / ton. Prices across the region are generally weak, stable and consolidated, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the market is generally weak.

Industry chain: in winter, the production of the mine itself is limited, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the overall phosphorus ore market will still be weak and stable in the near future. Recently, the overall market of yellow phosphorus trading is light, and the price is slightly lower. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory. The phosphate market started to increase, while prices were temporarily stable and rising.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, phosphoric acid has been in a high consolidation state in the near future. The price is higher than that of previous years. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate is low, the downstream demand is reduced, the on-site trading is flat, and the wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good for shipment, but the overall market is still weak. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term, with some downside risks.

I. price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 15300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: titanium dioxide market price is stable this week. The price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 14600-15800 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 12800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 18500-20000 yuan / ton. This week, dragon enterprises held a meeting to maintain the stability of prices. The main business of each cargo holder is collection and business volume. The market competition may be more and more fierce. In the case of strong titanium ore, titanium dioxide market has been stable, and the market price is single.

Industrial chain: the price of titanium concentrate in Western Panzhihua kept stable this week. The supply of imported titanium ore is tight and the market price is high. Panzhihua titanium ore price consolidation mainly. At present, the price of 38 titanium ore is 820-840 yuan / ton, 46, 10 titanium ore is 1260-1320 yuan / ton, 47, 20 titanium ore is 1300-1350 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: this week’s titanium dioxide prices have stabilized, but the overall price is still low, and the market is off-season. Near the end of the year, the shippers charged more business volume and collection. In the short term, the market price of titanium dioxide has been stable and the fluctuation range is not large. The actual operation is a single discussion.

I. price trend

Caprolactam has continued to decline since the beginning of winter, with a 15.08% drop now, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On December 2, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11066 yuan / ton, and on December 6, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10700 yuan / ton. This week, the price dropped 3.31%. Up to now, the caprolactam commodity index on December 6 is 53.82, which is flat with yesterday, 46.18% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and 0.64% higher than the lowest point of 53.48 on December 5, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline this week due to weak terminal demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10300 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industry chain: the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak, the confidence in the industry is insufficient, the terminal procurement is cautious, and the market is down. At present, trading is cold and weak in the short term. Domestic pure benzene market, East China pure benzene market remains firm, import market negotiation goes up, domestic trade negotiation reference 5400-5450 yuan / ton, far month goods negotiation is 5200-5350 yuan / ton, on-site wait-and-see increase, external price increase does not produce effective boost, downstream weak support is insufficient. Domestic PA6 spot price this week is temporarily stable. The spot source supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient. At present, the domestic PA6 production and trade e-commerce companies offer low-level operation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business club think: the upstream raw material cost pressure is still on, the downstream slice market atmosphere is cold, the production and sales are flat, and the demand side has not changed. Although the equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarted one after another, there is still resistance. It is expected that the decline of caprolactam will gradually slow down in the later period, with low consolidation as the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to raw material market and terminal demand.

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by o-phthalic method in China was 6312.5 yuan / ton, 0.20% higher than the price of 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 19.07% year on year.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China increased slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fluctuated. The downstream factories maintained just need to purchase, the factory inventory pressure remained, high-end transactions were blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5800-6000 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are on the market The price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly after the transfer out of the plant.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability, phthalic anhydride market price trend limited.

This week, the downstream DOP price rose slightly, the price of isooctanol declined, and the cost of DOP raw materials remained stable. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is maintained at 7300-7550 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is normal, in addition to the upstream ox price, affected by the cost, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period, but the increase range is limited.

I. price trend

This week, the propane market is generally stable, with individual manufacturers mainly adjusting to their own conditions. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4057.5 yuan / ton, down 0.12% in the week, down 9.08% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is fair. As of November 29, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so the price was not offered temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4040 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4050 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4180 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4150 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4150 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4030 yuan / ton.

Propane rose and fell in different ways this week, with the market generally stable, and manufacturers mainly made minor adjustments based on their own shipping situation. In the early part of the week, the international crude oil rose slightly and the cost of imported gas landed rose slightly. In addition, the civil gas market rose strongly, supporting the refinery mentality, and the price remained stable. This week, the weather is cooling down, and the market just needs to consume more. The news is beneficial to the multi industry mentality, which plays a certain role in supporting the propane Market. In addition, CP price was released in December at the end of the month, and propane butane increased by 10 USD / ton, which is good for the market. Individual manufacturers pushed up slightly. Downstream rigid demand entered the market to replenish goods, and the market transaction atmosphere was OK.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

According to propane analysts of business agency, CP price rose slightly in December, which is good for market mentality, and civil gas trend is strong and up, which supports the market. At present, seasonal factors have a strong impact, the weather is gradually cold, there is just a need for replenishment demand in the downstream, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and it is expected that next week’s trend may be upward.

According to statistics, in November, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price decreased slightly. At the beginning of the month, the domestic price was 6800 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price of domestic PX market was 6700 yuan / ton. The price trend decreased by 1.29%, 32.88% year-on-year. The external price of PX remained low and fluctuated. The external dependence of domestic PX market was high, and the domestic price trend of low external price was slightly lower.

In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined slightly. The domestic PX operation rate is about 80%. The 600000 ton new petrochemical plant of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been put into production. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical plant is stable. The first line of Fuhai Chuang plant has been started. The operation of Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX plant is normal. The operation of Jinling Petrochemical plant is stable. The operation of Qingdao Lidong plant is full load. Qilu Petrochemical plant is in full load operation Petrochemical plant operation is stable, Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and domestic market price is slightly lower. Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the external price of PX fluctuated in November. As of 28, the closing price of Asia was 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, several PX units in Asia are still under maintenance. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX is low Negative domestic market, domestic p-xylene market price slightly lower.

In November, the closing price of international crude oil fluctuated. As of the 28th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $58.11/barrel and Brent crude oil futures market was $63.87/barrel. The closing price of crude oil has been maintained between $55-60 / barrel. The cost support for downstream petrochemical products is limited, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is slightly lower.

In November, the price trend of the downstream PTA market declined slightly. As of the 29th, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated to be around 4700-4800 yuan. In the futures market, the main futures of PTA fell in shock, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4726 yuan / ton. After the buyback of suppliers, another 1.1 million tons of Dushan energy line was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, the downstream is cautious in purchasing, and there is a weakening expectation. The spot market lacks clear positive news support. The price keeps falling. In November, PTA starts at more than 90%, polyester starts at about 87%, and the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms starts at about 71%. The current terminal weaving factory has a relatively common new order, and the inventory pressure of weaving products is still there. In addition, the raw material market Limited market support, multiple negative drag, downstream and terminal factories to maintain just need to replenish, have taken negative hedging measures, PX market price trend fell slightly.

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the recent crude oil price trend is volatile, and the downstream PTA Market operating rate remains at a high level of 90%, but the PTA market price is slightly lower. At present, the PTA plant is newly put into operation, and the supply will gradually accumulate, and the downstream polyester production is expected to reduce, especially from late December to January, there is a large area maintenance plan for the polyester plant, and the PX market price is expected to be later Grid may maintain low volatility.

I. price trend

In November, the market price of NBR was weak. According to the monitoring of business association, the price of NBR at the beginning of the month was 17066 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 16000 yuan / ton, down 6.25% compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market trend analysis

Sufficient supply of NBR

According to the business association, in November, the main domestic nitrile manufacturers basically started normal operation, and the overall operation rate of domestic nitrile rubber was nearly 80%. The market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of nitrile enterprises and traders have been reduced. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 30, the price of domestic NBR in Shaanxi is stable. At present, the mainstream market of Lanhua NBR n41 is about 14000 yuan / ton, 3305 is about 14900 yuan / ton, 3308 is about 15600 yuan / ton, and downstream inquiry is on demand.

Raw material price shocks and consolidation weaken the support of NBR

In November, the raw material butadiene was shaken and consolidated, which weakened the support for nitrile. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene in early November was 9123 yuan / ton, which fell to 8537 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and 8834 yuan / ton in the end of the month. The price at the end of the month was 3.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the amplitude at the higher point was 6.42% higher than that at the lower point of the month.

It is difficult for the downstream demand to improve, which will drag down the NBR

At present, there is no significant increase in the orders of downstream terminal plants, the demand for NBR is still light, and the stock volume is not much, dragging the overall NBR market.

III. future prospects

Business analysts believe that on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is low, on the other hand, the demand for NBR is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of NBR will continue to be weak in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China at the beginning of the week was 676.67 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price at the weekend was 640.00 yuan / ton, down 36.67 yuan / ton, down 5.42%, 54.61% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market continued to be weak, the downstream demand was sluggish, the terminal purchase enthusiasm was weak, the external support was weak, the port inventory continued to increase, the consumption was slow, the industry was bearish on the future market, the market wait-and-see mood remained unchanged, and the negotiation atmosphere was cold. At present, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China market is 520-660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 470-630 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong market is about 700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China market is 590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 510-540 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market behaves in a differentiated operation, with market ups and downs showing each other. The supply of smelting acid in Shandong Province is increasing, the acid price is greatly reduced, and some acid enterprises are flexible to increase according to the inventory. Affected by the environmental protection and transportation inspection, the transportation is inconvenient, and the prices in Henan, Shanxi and other places are lower. In North China, the peak shifting production orders were issued in many heating seasons. In addition, the demand follow-up was insufficient. The sulfuric acid market was still weak in terms of supply, and the support of market good news was limited. It is expected that the price market will be sorted out and operated.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%).

III. future forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business association, at present, the sulfur market continues to consolidate its weakness, lacks the guidance of substantive information on the market, and has a strong wait-and-see mood. In the absence of obvious changes in the supply and demand situation, the short-term sulfur market is expected to maintain its weakness and stability.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week was stable. In the week, the average market price in East China was 1713.33 yuan / ton by the end of the week, down 26.67 yuan / ton, or 0.96%, compared with the weekend price last year, down 19.31% year-on-year. On November 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 87.86, the same as yesterday, down 25.45% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.13% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic soda price has remained stable as a whole this week, the market continues to be weak and downward, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream of light soda is purchased on demand, flexible trading, at present, the mainstream factory price of domestic light soda is 1450-1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream terminal price of domestic heavy soda is 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. The heavy alkali market is mainly consolidated, the focus of market transaction is smooth operation, there is no obvious price adjustment for the quoted enterprises, the delivery situation of the manufacturers is acceptable, the delivery pressure of the soda ash manufacturers increases, and the manufacturers mostly implement the end of month pricing.

In terms of supply: domestic soda market is oversupplied, market trading atmosphere is cold, traders are cautious, and actual trading is deadlocked. The starting load of Dalian Dahua plant will gradually increase, and the output will gradually increase in the later period, and some areas will be affected; the unit starting rate of the enterprise will reach about 84% in the week, and the maintenance enterprise will not have a substantial impact on the production capacity. In addition, the northwest region will be affected by the weather, which will bring a lot of inconvenience to the traffic in the snow season, and the freight will be increased, which will be unfavorable to the soda enterprise’s shipment; on the other hand, pure There is no pressure from environmental protection policies in alkali enterprises, which leads to the continuous increase of enterprise inventory. Therefore, the stock pressure of the manufacturers is still there, and the traders hold the wait-and-see state, so the soda ash market as a whole is not optimistic.

Demand: limited by environmental protection factors, the demand for light soda ash from terminal products is weak, and there is no incremental demand or improvement for heavy soda affected by stable production of glass. The market of glass enterprises is not optimistic, the downstream just needs to pick up goods, and the industry procurement is stable, so it is difficult to make a breakthrough. Under the influence of environmental protection, the starting load of downstream enterprises tends to be weak and stable.

III. future forecast

Analysts of soda ash business association believe that: the demand in the downstream of soda ash is limited, the market is not optimistic, and under the influence of cost pressure, the market oversupply reduces the price. On the other hand, the downstream maintains a rigid demand for replenishment, with a stalemate wait-and-see focus. At present, the manufacturer has a lot of inventory, a lot of shipping pressure and imbalance between supply and demand. In the short term, it is difficult to improve the downstream demand. The market trend is under pressure. It is expected that the market situation of soda ash will remain weak in the short term, depending on the inventory situation and the downstream market demand.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the weak consolidation operation of pure benzene this week has basically stabilized the price. The price of pure benzene on Friday is 5250-5400 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the port inventory of pure benzene is low this week, and the spot supply is tight to support the pure benzene market. However, the downstream profit level is low, which limits the recovery of pure benzene market.

2. Crude oil: this week’s crude oil fluctuated broadly. Affected by OPEC’s possible extension of production reduction period, the overall oil price is higher than last week. WTI was up 1.3% and Brent was up 1.95% compared with November 15. But at present, crude oil price has little influence on the price of pure benzene.

3. Related industries: downstream styrene fell 1.13% after rising this week; aniline enterprises reduced price to promote shipment, down 6.64% this week. The price of aniline was high last month and the profit was large, but this month’s consecutive decline of aniline hit the pure benzene market.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the next week, production reduction activities will support the rise of oil prices, but economic data and other constraints on oil prices may continue the pattern of shocks.

2. Domestic market: at present, the overall supply and demand of pure benzene market are weak, and the sense of market direction is not strong. In addition, the supply of hydrogenated benzene in North China will resume, and Zhejiang Petrochemical will soon pilot production, which may increase the impact on the pure benzene Market in the future.

Comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the short-term pure benzene will still be weak in the overall operation.

I. price trend

The overall operating atmosphere of EPS market is poor, some prices in the spot market continue to decline, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand, while the upstream and downstream fail to provide sufficient support for the spot market.

II. Market analysis

EPS Market: EPS market price fell, Wuxi Xingda EPS factory price, common material quotation is 9100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of Hairong EPS in Dongying is 9100 yuan / ton for common materials. The ex factory price of Jiangyin Hupao EPS is 9200 yuan / ton for common materials.

III. future forecast

The EPS market is generally stable. At present, it is difficult to effectively improve the market’s dull atmosphere. The quotation is stable and slightly adjusted. The downstream market is still weak in buying and the actual transaction is deadlocked. It is expected that EPS market will still have the possibility of narrow range and weak consolidation operation

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and consolidated this week. The average factory price of light potash in China at the weekend was 6425.00 yuan / ton, including tax. The current price fell 7.05% year on year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: at present, the consolidation trend of potash market is dominated by the consolidation of upstream raw material potassium chloride price, which has no supporting effect on the price of potash. The market of potash is relatively stable, while the demand side is weak, which restrains the price increase, and the price adjustment range is not large. Part of the manufacturer’s devices are shut down for maintenance, the market momentum of low inventory purchase is general, and the quotation is mainly consolidated. According to the statistics of business agency: in November, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that the trading atmosphere of potash market is cold and difficult to close. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by the demand side.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene rose this week after falling. The price of pure benzene fell in 5050-5400 yuan / ton last Friday, and the price of pure benzene was 5250-5400 yuan / ton this Friday, up 0.18% compared with last Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: the market demand for pure benzene at the beginning of the week was weak, and the price was lower. However, the reduction of hydrogenated benzene production led to the decrease of supply, driving the price of pure benzene higher in North China. Tight spot supply and drop in port inventory led to short covering, which drove the price of pure benzene to continue to rise.

2. Crude oil: this week’s crude oil range fluctuated, affected by economic data, progress of trade negotiations and US crude oil inventory. WTI was up 1% and Brent was up 2.46% compared with November 8.

3. Related industries: this week’s downstream styrene fell 2.63%; aniline rose or fell 9.96% this week. Depressed downstream market, limit the growth of pure benzene.

III. future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week, the oil price may continue to fluctuate.

2. Domestic market: the supply and demand of coking industry has been improved, the support surface of hydrogenated benzene is strong, and the subsequent driving force is still strong. In addition, the port inventory is low, and the spot market supply is tight, which has strong support for the bottom of pure benzene. But at present, the profit of downstream enterprises is small, the demand is weak, and the increase is limited.

Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will rise slightly in the later period driven by the market.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has declined after rising recently, showing a peak trend. At the beginning of the week (November 11), the average price of enterprises is 7321 yuan / ton. On Wednesday and Thursday, the average price of enterprises is 7399 yuan / ton. At the end of the week (November 17), the average price of enterprises is 7316 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.06% and a weekly amplitude of 1.13%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the price began to rise by 150-200 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price began to maintain stability. On the twelfth day, the price of the enterprise recovered. On the fourteenth, the price of the enterprise began to decline. At present, the market turnover is still around 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7250 yuan / ton. Propylene inventory is still low.

Industry chain: upstream, the overall market of international crude oil market is relatively ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. In the downstream, the demand for shutdown and maintenance of some downstream units in Shandong Province has decreased, which has a negative impact on propylene market.

Recently, PP spot market fell slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.59%, which had little impact on propylene.

The price of acrylic acid in China is stable this week, which has no impact on the price of propylene.

Propylene oxide has stabilized after a small rise in recent days, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. The market is average, which has a slight effect on propylene market.

However, epichlorohydrin prices continued to decline sharply this week, with a weekly decline of 9.22% and a daily decline of 11.45% from December to 13th. Its downstream epoxy resin restricted its market. In the short term, it was dominated by weak consolidation, which had a suppressive effect on propylene market.

In recent days, the n-butanol market rose slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.36%, but it was not optimistic in the later stage, with limited impact on propylene.

Octanol prices fell slightly this week, down 0.95%, after the market or low consolidation, little impact on propylene.

Isopropanol prices rose this week by 3.93%, and may continue to rise in the future, but there is limited room to do so, which has a positive impact on propylene market.

Phenol market fell 2.07% this week, with weekly amplitude reaching 3.24%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

Acetone market was up 6.23% this week, and the focus continued to push up, which has a positive effect on propylene.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, in general, the propylene market has declined after rising in recent days, generally maintaining stability. At present, propylene inventory is low, crude oil and PP market are still ideal, but some downstream units are shut down, so it is expected that propylene market price will still be lowered in recent days.

I. price trend

This week’s lead market (11.11-11.15) was slightly lower. The average price in the domestic market was 16125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15825 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.86%.

On November 15, the lead commodity index was 96.31, up 0.11 points from yesterday, down 28.13% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 29.05% from 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: from Nov. 11 to Nov. 15, the price of Lunzhou lead fell all the way, and it was below the average. This week, Lund’s lead inventory has been reduced by 2900 tons. In terms of Shanghai lead, 1912, the main force of Shanghai lead, was converted into 2001 contract this week. The mainstream price fluctuated between 15660-16100. During this period, it continued to decline after falling below the key position of 16000. At one time, it fell to the vicinity of 15700. Although it tried to rush to a high of 16100, it lacked the support of good news. In the spot market, the mainstream price of spot lead this week was 15750-16150 yuan / ton, which was dragged down by the futures market, and the spot market continued to decline. The market turnover situation was better than last week, but the refinery’s enthusiasm for shipment was not high, and the discount was narrowed. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead general brands had a discount of 10 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton for the 1912 contract. Market brands of lead are concentrated in Shanghai Jinsha, Nanfang lead, Henan Yuguang, wanyang, Jinli, etc., and most of them are long single transactions. This week, the market performance of recycled lead was strong, and the price difference with spot lead was further reduced to about 300 yuan / ton. Downstream battery enterprises still mainly purchase recycled lead, but most of them have purchased on demand.

Major domestic events:

A large number of waste lead-acid batteries have entered the black market with huge environmental pollution problems: the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology released the guide for construction and operation of new energy vehicle power battery recycling service outlets (hereinafter referred to as the “guide”) on July 7. The guide clearly requires that new energy vehicle manufacturers should establish collection type recycling service outlets in the administrative areas (at least prefecture level) where new energy vehicles are sold.

Quanzhou will build a waste lead-acid battery collection and transfer project, which will recycle 50000 tons of waste batteries every year. Recently, Quanzhou ecological environment bureau announced the EIA report form of the battery centralized collection and transfer technical transformation project of Quanzhou Kaiying power appliance Co., Ltd., which will be published until November 20, 2019. At the beginning of the plant’s construction in September 2000, Kaiying company had a production scale of 4 million small plates. In 2005, it completed the technical transformation project of 4 million small plates to 4 million large plates. In June 2012, it completed the operation of the battery assembly line. In 2014, after the lead workshop was rebuilt and expanded in different places, the new and old plant areas of Kaiying company were managed independently, and the environmental protection facilities were operated independently.

Nonferrous Industry: this week’s data in Europe and the United States was lower than expected, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

III. future prospects

Next week, the US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, support for base metal repair fell sharply this week, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. The spot lead market is expected to fluctuate in the 15700-16000 range next week.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, the downward atmosphere of PC did not improve, and the weak operation was maintained. Today, the market comprehensive price is 13533.33 yuan / ton.

II. Cause analysis

In terms of products: the high level of domestic PC product inventory is hard to alleviate, the downstream purchase atmosphere is poor, the mentality of the industry is gloomy, the cost pressure of the enterprise is increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. Today, the latest price of Shanghai keschuang is 14550 yuan / ton, the latest price of Luxi Chemical is 12900 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan is 13150 yuan / ton, and the price of injection grade low-end materials in East China market is 13700-16200 RMB / T, and RMB 15800-17800 / T for medium and high-end negotiation.

Industry chain: raw material bisphenol A is running at a low level, the upstream phenol price is low, the cost support is weak, the factory shipping pressure is increasing, and the price of Shandong goods is low, all of which form a certain negative restriction on the market. The negotiation focus is gradually low, and the business purchase is more cautious, and the negotiation focus is continuously low.

On November 11, the rubber and plastic index was 669, the same as yesterday, down 36.89% from 1060 (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 16.15% from 576, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

III. future forecast

PC analysts of business club believe that the domestic PC market is weak and volatile this week, and it is still difficult to improve the situation of the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.